Waiting in the wings – forward prospect depth or how we ignored size and learned to love the SMALL?
So the Sabres have a long and somewhat varied list of pro and prospect winger depth right now. Since it takes all sorts of styles and sizes to build a team – and more importantly people who embrace roles that aren’t just PP and scoring line glory – it seems like having a conversation about who on the team stays or goes, why they stay or go, and what they have coming up behind seems in order.
ON THE TEAM:
Right Wing:
Alex Tuch – an economically priced big man who can play to his size and provide both backpressure for his linemates and net drive. There are questions about his health and perhaps this year is more of a durability issue, but he seems like the type to keep building around.
JJ Peterka – Having a nice offensive breakout but still not as much of an inside driven player most nights. Unique with his speed, still looking for consistency and as of yet not a very committed defensive player.
Kyle Okposo – The wheels have come off and he should not return on the ice. However… he is one of few players who plays in traffic or works a cycle.
Victor Olofsson – A non-combative, slow shooting specialist who has not done well in limited minutes, often with other complete slugs. He doesn’t PK, doesn’t contest pucks, and barely is able to get to open ice to offer a shot option. The most passenger of their passengers, a deeply flawed player in Buffalo who should not have been returned to the lineup. Luckily for everyone, his contract is up.
Left Wing:
Jeff Skinner – it seems like he’s once again showing he may be hitting the age wall. He plays one way, there isn’t much responsibility there in his own zone which is nothing new, but they are saddled with his full NMC and $9M AAV going forward.
Jack Quinn – Made a heck of a difference coming back from injury and then got injured again. He is crafty but not large, quick but not fast, still not strong on his skates as he’s easily knocked down yet he has an ability to finish plays from mid-range and contribute to loose puck wins. There is a little sand in his game, certainly some good playmaking, and they miss him.
Zach Benson – The Surprise for this year. He looks like a keeper, someone who is competitive and hard on other teams’ abilities to move pucks.
Jordan Greenway – Only one more year left on his deal and has given them quality PKing and defensive consciousness on various lines.
Zemgus Girgensons – Shot suppression vet, also UFA. I would expect they give him the option of picking a landing spot. Sometimes plays center or RW down the lineup.
Eric Robinson – Picked up for nothing, has provided solid identity line play but hasn’t been used as a PKer in Buffalo at all despite being adequate at it in Columbus. Sometimes used on RW.
PROSPECTS:
Right Wing:
Isak Rosen – Had a longer look with a few games over 10 minutes/game back in November but mostly playing with the since-waived Jost and the never-played Olofsson. He’s filled out a bit since being drafted but is not ever going to be mistaken for a thickly built player. He has shown ability as a PKer and is a defensively responsible AHL player, but his offensive game has dried up since returning to Rochester. What do they want him to be? Hell, one of Duff’s comments around the time of the recall was openly wondering what they want him to become, and I would echo that. He now has 105 AHL games and is still just 20 years old. 64 points (46 of them primary) in that span is solid production out of someone if they were a CHL grad wouldn’t even have sniffed this league yet.
Anton Wahlberg – 2nd line RW for Malmo, SHL; signed; won’t be 19 until July and is planning on coming over to join the Amerks after his SHL season ends. 5-4-9 in 31 regular season games thus far and 1-2-3 in 7 games as part of the Swedes U20 silver medal team. Excellent size (6’3”, around 195 lbs. already) and a penchant for using it to get inside and be around the net/slot areas. He’s strong on screens and finds areas closer to the net to try to finish plays. He’s one of their few prospects with size which is going to make him more appealing on North American ice. He’s already lost his neck in the gym.
Lukas Rousek (LW) – The King of Prague was not good enough in his recall, downright bad even. He’s leading the Amerks in points, having ripped off the longest point streak by an Amerk in nearly 25 years, and uses his speed well at that level. As a try-hard player, he has plus speed and has shown a willingness to take a hit to make a play in North America. Maybe there is a 4th line/13th forward there.
Jake Richard – A 19-year-old freshman at UConn, he’s currently 4th on the Huskies in scoring. It’s a down year for UConn and Richard will have plenty of time to adjust and improve over the next 2 or 3 seasons. Besides, the Sabres need a new collegiate draftee for people to worry about his signing status rather than paying attention to the player… and Richard fills that need neatly.
Olivier Nadeau – Numbers in Rochester have pushed him off to the ECHL where he’s been adequate as a rookie (7-6-13 in 20 games). He started the season on IR after having shoulder surgery over the summer and that was on the heels of missing the first half of his final QMJHL season with Gatineau. He has several things the team could use – a decent frame at 6’2”, 205 lbs, a game predicated on being in and around the net offensively and the hands to be effective in tight. He still has heavy feet and having lost almost a full season over the last 18 months due to injury recovery, there are certainly areas where continued work is needed. Very much a slow cook on this prospect.
Left Wing:
Jiri Kulich – Also plays center, though what the plan is has not been clear. He had a great season as an 18-year-old in the AHL in terms of goals and total points, then had a strong start to this season before being allowed to head to the U20’s where he was integral in the Czechs winning another medal. He’s not big at 6’ and 195-ish lbs, but he’s robustly built. He has a crackling shot. Appert has praised the way he’s evolved his game, although he’s now out with some sort of injury after having his scoring pace slow to almost nothing since returning from the WJC’s. 53 of the 71 points he’s generated in the AHL are primary, he’s a weapon on the PP and gets in PK time. Again though… what’s the plan?
Brett Murray – a rare combo of size and a willingness to use it to get to the net, yet hobbled by below NHL capable speed seems to have stuck Murray as an AHL capped player. He does look a step faster this year compared to last, but again, it doesn’t seem to be enough to get him more than a token pair of games and another player who was saddled with the duo of Jost and Olofsson as his primary partners. At 25, the runway seems closed and the hopes that maybe there was a Maroon type of development arch seem to have faded out completely.
Linus Weissbach – This player has reinvented himself in the AHL, from small and quick offensive line guy to all situations speed checker who can PK and defend. And yet he’s not had any chance to show if there is anything there at the next level, having never had a recall in all of his time in Rochester. Some of that can be chalked up to timing – a couple of UBIs have certainly limited his availability and kept him out of the lineup at times when the big club needed someone. If there was a way to combine Weissbach’s speed and Murray’s frame/net game… they would have an amazing player. But no matter the size of the trench coat, I don’t see that happening.
Viktor Neuchev(RW) – First year Russian who is still learning the language but has worked his way up the lineup to spend some time on the first line wing while not being a drag on it’s play. He has 16 points (6 goals) and had a run of 11 points in 8 games through January. What sort of chaos agent he can become remains intriguing and he only turned 20 back in October.
Alex Kisakov – Second year Russian player, continues to be praised by the HC of Rochester for his work ethic and how he’s trying to build himself up. He’s already surpassed last year’s point totals in about half the games (9 in 24 gp this year, 8 in 48 last year). He does some things that are magic with the puck and seems deadly in shootouts. He’s also a bit stick mean and has a definite chip on his shoulder. However it’s hard to over come being built like a wisp.
Prokhor Poltapov(RW) – Ended last year on a high in the playoffs for CSKA last spring, but hasn’t established himself up the lineup and has had a couple of VHL demotions this year. The last demotion saw him promptly score two goals and come back up after a single game. When he’s on his game, he’s pesky and around the net, a bit trollish with his physicality and being in traffic or along the wall. He just turned 21 and still has another season on his KHL deal. If he can step into a top 9 role for next year, he might be nearly ready by ’25-26 but now, that seems like he’ll need some time to adjust unless there is an uptick in his play. It’s possible, he is only 2 weeks removed from turning 21.
Stiven Sardarian – 2nd and 3rd line LW for UNH. He just missed games this weekend but has been playing on the 2nd or 3rd line for UNH this year and attending classes. Again, might one day amount to something but in the meantime, there is still a way to go in finding consistent offensive production (10 points in 22 games as a sophomore is good for 10th on the Wildcats).
Ethan Miedema – Well he’s big at 6’4” and still inconsistent and still looks like he needs to work on his fitness to me in limited viewings of the Frontenacs. He’s below last year’s offensive pace for total points and is a smidge below the goal per game output as well. There is still some time, though CHL draftees only have a two-year window of team control at his age, so he’d need to show something next year to be in their contract thoughts.
Not playing wing but could be a wing:
Viljami Marjala – 2nd line center with TPS in Liiga but having an excellent scoring season, he used to be a LW. The shift to center and playing up the lineup is certainly a welcome surprise. Also, the number of silent J’s in the middle of names/60 is off the charts. TPS is not a power – currently sitting 9th in the 15 team Liiga – but his development has been an interesting one. He’s leading them in scoring (32 points, good for 32nd in the league) and just turned 21 a few weeks ago. In the last 10 years, his season pace (0.64 points per game) is 33rd best in Finns in the Liiga under 21 but that doesn’t really reveal much as there isn’t a lot of statistical evidence one way or another.
William Von Barnekow – 3rd line center with Malmo SHL but was drafted as a wing. He’s got something going for him that is rare in their forward pool – he’s 6’4”. I’m not sure he’s planning on a career in North America but the wrinkle of getting time at center in the SHL is at least intriguing. He has 12 points (5 goals) in 40 games thus far.
Matthew Savoie – 2nd line center with Moose Jaw, WHL; was playing 1st line RW with Wenatchee, seems like he’ll likely be a wing at the NHL level too. He has slowed a bit since shifting to Moose Jaw’s 2nd line in terms of his scoring output, as he’s now under 2 points per game on the season (17-24-41 in just 21 games) though he’s only been held completely off the scoresheet twice in the WHL thus far this season. Still finishes a lot of plays around the net, is used in all situations, manages to win a majority of his draws (16 games he’s had .500 or better). Viewed as one of the Canadians who struggled at the U20s where he played wing, his season has certainly not been smooth after starting with an injury in the rookie tournament.
Conclusions?
So it seems like they are going to have to push things even further if they aren't going to lose intrinsic value for all the wingers they have in their prospect pool. They have some depth spots open, but they don't have the type of players to fill those roles as checkers. I can see Gus, KO, Vic and even Robinson swapped out but the idea of doing that all to bring in nothing but prospect types is going to fail them.
Anyway, this doc has been open for three or four days and I figured I would post it.
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I would like to see if there is something there
