Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

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phillipmike

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MLB free agency: Way-too-early free agent rankings and predictions for 2019-20 hot stove season

12. Nicholas CastellanosDET • RF • 9
2020 SEASON AGE28
Why sign J.D. Martinez when you can sign Nicholas Castellanos and get a younger version of J.D. Martinez? It's not a crazy line of thinking. Castellanos is not the hitter Martinez is, but he's entering what should be his peak years, and he has same opposite field power stroke that makes Martinez so dangerous. Also, like Martinez, Castellanos is a liability in the outfield and likely best suited for DH. He's a very good hitter right now and, given his age, there's a chance he'll spend the next few seasons as one of the 10 best hitters in the sport. Castellanos is going to a popular free agent in a year. You watch.
2020 Team Prediction: Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are going to need a running mate.

22. Alex WoodCIN • SP • 40
2020 SEASON AGE29
Alex Wood is a tough guy to figure out. He's obviously really good. He's also worn down late in each of the last two seasons and wound up in the bullpen at various points, plus his velocity is trending down. I could see teams holding that again him. That said, Wood will play the entire 2020 season at 29 and he is a lefty with a knack for missing bats. That'll play.
2020 Team Prediction: Blue Jays. I think Toronto is going to spend some money next winter.

I dont really like either signing but i think it is a strategy the Jays should employ next off-season - signing mid tier free agents to 2-3 year deals.

But looking at the rankings on this list makes you laugh.
 

theaub

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I really like the trend. However the younger players would be smart to band together and ask for a cap and new contract rights. If they are able to **** the vetrans over, get a cap in there the owners will have to spend it. They have shown they are starting to prefer younger players so that money will be theirs as it will have to be spent.

The owners would love to keep paying young elite talent through rnw and arb rights. If they are smart they sell the vetrans down the river. Plus it would make baseball more competitive imo

An absolute lock for a work stoppage after 2021 at this point.

I assume based on what you're saying you mean a floor instead of a cap, which is absolutely what is needed. There is zero reason, solely based on national TV and MLBAM revenue that a team should have an opening day payroll lower than $100M, which last year would have added approximately $170M of salaries. The luxury tax already acts as a deterrent for reckless spending upwards, what is needed now is something to control teams that are just not spending the money they're given by the league.
 
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BlueForever75

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The Jays will definitely be buyers next off season once they see how their young players develop and when some other players most notably Smoak and Morales are off the books.

I am looking forward to this season, hoping we get some more players later in off season that we turn around and trade for more prospects. And at the same time watching players like Guerrero, Bichette, Jansen, Tellez, Gurriel, Pannone, Borucki, SRF develop. If these players develop and players like Grichuk, Hernandez, Stroman, and Sanchez do what they can do. We will be in a position to add next off season and be closer to contending for a WC in 2020.
 
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IceColdBear

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Staying healthy (and moreso the things that surround it) is an intangible.

I would say that durability is a tangible quality some players have and others don't.

Obviously a freak injury can happen to anybody, but whenever a player gets injured over and over again (especially if it's the same injury), you know they are more likely than most to get injured again.
 

hockeywiz542

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Phillips: Jays effectively gave Martin away - TSN.ca
In 2018, the Jays missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. Tulowitzki, 34, missed the entire 2018 season and only played 66 games in 2017. Martin appeared in 90 games last season for the Jays, finishing with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs in one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. He also posted a .194 batting average with a .338 on-base percentage.

Moving out their aging veterans on expensive deals opens up playing time for the Jays’ younger players, but the team lost Tulowitzki for nothing, while the return for Martin only brought back two prospects.
In the Martin trade, the Jays saved some money on their payroll, but the two players in the return are considered to be C-level prospects.

“The Dodgers got themselves backed into sort of in a desperate situation when they lost (Yasmani) Grandal and didn’t have any other catchers other than Austin Barnes so they make the deal,” said Phillips. “The Jays moved out around $3.4 million off the books – better than nothing. They effectively gave him away. The prospects in return were, you know, you need to get prospects in return to make it look like a trade instead of somebody just taking your money.”


“All the moves they are making are to put themselves in the position to be this young rebuilding team with a different sort of culture with nothing from the past really still there, mostly just gritty young guys going out there trying to play,” added Phillips.
 
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Woodman19

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Maybe the Jays were doing Russell a favor for being a solider during the good years and the bad. Even these last 2 he did everything they asked of him. Doesnt seem crazy to think they sent him to a place ot potentially succeed.
It seems Shapiro tends to do stuff like that often with trading Smith back to Cleveland over a family issue (I cant remember what exactly), releasing Tulo at the start of the offseason and now this for Martin. You certainly can't claim they aren't good to their players.
 

Skin Tape Session

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An absolute lock for a work stoppage after 2021 at this point.

I assume based on what you're saying you mean a floor instead of a cap, which is absolutely what is needed. There is zero reason, solely based on national TV and MLBAM revenue that a team should have an opening day payroll lower than $100M, which last year would have added approximately $170M of salaries. The luxury tax already acts as a deterrent for reckless spending upwards, what is needed now is something to control teams that are just not spending the money they're given by the league.

A floor for sure, then they go the nba,nfl,or nhl route as far as the ceiling goes. The owners are squeezing the veterans out and are hoping to get elite level production from control. Its going to get interesting.
 

Skin Tape Session

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The Jays will definitely be buyers next off season once they see how their young players develop and when some other players most notably Smoak and Morales are off the books.

I am looking forward to this season, hoping we get some more players later in off season that we turn around and trade for more prospects. And at the same time watching players like Guerrero, Bichette, Jansen, Tellez, Gurriel, Pannone, Borucki, SRF develop. If these players develop and players like Grichuk, Hernandez, Stroman, and Sanchez do what they can do. We will be in a position to add next off season and be closer to contending for a WC in 2020.

I am too. Its not a foregone like the last two. Im super excited to get the begining of this process started. Now is when I feel its fair to lay all blame on shatkins going foward. But yeah, im excited for the next five to seven years.
 

Anthrax442

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A floor for sure, then they go the nba,nfl,or nhl route as far as the ceiling goes. The owners are squeezing the veterans out and are hoping to get elite level production from control. Its going to get interesting.

The cap wont help it. The vets are being squeezed out because they age faster than they used to before. You want to tell me that Joey Bats doesn't have a contract because of his age? No, it's because he lost everything he was good at.
 

Skin Tape Session

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The cap wont help it. The vets are being squeezed out because they age faster than they used to before. You want to tell me that Joey Bats doesn't have a contract because of his age? No, it's because he lost everything he was good at.

Post roids. I think A rod, texria and Howard were a huge wake up call. Funny thing is no one told the vets, EE was expecting over 100 mil lmao. I like that the game is younger. Your post is self evident btw. Joey bats lost his skill Because he aged out. He dosent have a contract, because hes bad, because his age

I think a cap will help. A floor and ceiling with cap rules is needed. The right cap is where smarter people than me come in. Ideas?
 

Anthrax442

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Post roids. I think A rod, texria and Howard were a huge wake up call. Funny thing is no one told the vets, EE was expecting over 100 mil lmao. I like that the game is younger. Your post is self evident btw. Joey bats lost his skill Because he aged out. He dosent have a contract, because hes bad, because his age

I think a cap will help. A floor and ceiling with cap rules is needed. The right cap is where smarter people than me come in. Ideas?


I don't see anything wrong with what is happening. It is a new reality and teams and players are adjusting to them. There is no need in giving out these idiotically long contracts to aging players. That is true in all sports. NBA has it best where they have length limits. Maybe lowering the luxury tax, but I think you will get more teams to spend if you shorten the damn season and expand the playoffs. There will be more desire to be competitive.
 
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BAM

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I don't see anything wrong with what is happening. It is a new reality and teams and players are adjusting to them. There is no need in giving out these idiotically long contracts to aging players. That is true in all sports. NBA has it best where they have length limits. Maybe lowering the luxury tax, but I think you will get more teams to spend if you shorten the damn season and expand the playoffs. There will be more desire to be competitive.
A 5 year cap on contracts would be great and prevent a lot of the horrible contracts you see on almost every team.
 
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Nineteen67

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Post roids. I think A rod, texria and Howard were a huge wake up call. Funny thing is no one told the vets, EE was expecting over 100 mil lmao. I like that the game is younger. Your post is self evident btw. Joey bats lost his skill Because he aged out. He dosent have a contract, because hes bad, because his age

I think a cap will help. A floor and ceiling with cap rules is needed. The right cap is where smarter people than me come in. Ideas?

I recently read on these boards how the cap has ruined hockey because teams in the south are taking Cups away from the historical powerhouse Toronto Maple Leafs. I’m not sure we want to see teams like Tampa competing with Boston and NY. :sarcasm:
 
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Discoverer

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A 5 year cap on contracts would be great and prevent a lot of the horrible contracts you see on almost every team.

I hate the idea of a rule specifically designed to protect ownership/management from itself. I like that teams have to weigh the pros and cons of a long-term contract and deal with the consequences down the road.
 

BAM

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I hate the idea of a rule specifically designed to protect ownership/management from itself. I like that teams have to weigh the pros and cons of a long-term contract and deal with the consequences down the road.
The NBA does it, works well for them.
 

BAM

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Yeah, because god knows that billionaire owners need more protection in the marketplace.
If they've shown that they recklessly give crazy term to older player then yeah they do. Any UFA contract past 5 years is almost always gunna end up bad for the team giving it to the player.
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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The cap wont help it. The vets are being squeezed out because they age faster than they used to before. You want to tell me that Joey Bats doesn't have a contract because of his age? No, it's because he lost everything he was good at.

I don't think the new trend has anything to do with vets "aging faster" than they did before. It is a by-product of the fact that virtually every team is now being steered by process-driven intellectual types who possess the ability to think about the game at a deeper level, which has allowed them to uncover the blatant market inefficiency that the MLBPA has created over years of selling out younger players in order to enrich longer-serving veteran members of the union. Advanced analytics has allowed teams to quantify more accurately just how MUCH aging players are declining in value, but players have always declined as they age: the difference is that before, when you had ex-player types running teams, you'd get the silly logic like "oh, so and so is still producing 100 RBI's, and he's a proven veteran which means that he's a lock to continue producing, and he has those veteran intangibles so obviously we should give him a big contract" which would bypass obvious signs of decline. Sure, the steroid era meant that players could remain productive for longer as they aged, but even without steroids the teams would have incorrectly valued aging veterans over "less proven" young talent as that has basically been the general mindset in every major sport. Once you bring in a bunch of guys who are Ivy-league Econ grad types to run your team, they start looking past all the nonsensical BS and run the team as if it were an actual business, which is what has created the current climate wherein the free agent market has dried up for 30+ year olds.

You'll see a swing with the next CBA because the Player's Association will HAVE to start changing their approach. They got caught with their pants down, and they'll have to adjust. The fact that the CBA can and does change will start leveling things out again.
 
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metafour

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If they've shown that they recklessly give crazy term to older player then yeah they do. Any UFA contract past 5 years is almost always gunna end up bad for the team giving it to the player.

Uhm, those are personal choices. That's like arguing that because 'X' person can't keep themselves from eating 10 Big Mac's a day, we need to set limits on how many hamburgers McDonalds is allowed to sell.

The free market regulates itself. Why would you protect stupid owners that make stupid business decisions? They aren't hapless victims, in fact they already possess considerably more money than the players who are the actual PRODUCT that you watch. So why would you be in favour of taking money away from the players, so that some billionaire oil-tycoon can keep more of it in his pocket?
 
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