Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

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TheMadHatTrick

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All great teams will have to bite the bullet on some expensive contracts. Even the Leafs if you want to compare a potential Trout signing to Tavares. Tavares probably won't be worth $11 million when he's 33-34, he is however going to be worth the money for most of the contract.

If in 2 years Vlad establishes himself as Miggy/Pujols clone and the Jays are right there, getting Trout would be almost perfect. If you can't spend big money on the best baseball player bar none, who else are you going to spend it on? Trout might decline athletically in his 30's but his bat is prolific and should age well.

Catchers also break down the quickest out of any position on the field, comparing Martin to signing Trout at age 29 are 2 very different things. Trout is a McDavid, Lebron, once-in-a-generation/lifetime kind of player.

None of which alters my point. I agree you have to pay for years of decline. That's the cost of doing business, which is what I've been saying.

The difference between Martin and Trout as players is irrelevant, since that's not the point at issue. The point is the principle I just stated about signing players to such contracts, and the expectation of decline.

Trout is different, yes, but will also be paid significantly more in his years of decline than Martin was. In fact if his contract wasn't back-climbing for payroll purposes at the time, Martin's contract would only have averaged 16M per, while Trout's should average at least 30M.

We don't know how well his bat will age, but in the post-steroid era there are very few if any players worth 30M into their mid to late 30s (assuming Trout signs for 8-10 years), which is also right around the time Vlad will be due for his monster contract. This last point is irrelevant of course to the current discussion but worth keeping in mind.

This is all moot though, cause there's almost zero chance Trout is signing with us unless we pay over and above market value, which would also presumably make the dollar figure on his years of decline rise concomitantly.
 
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TOGuy14

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Don't forget if they had gone all in on Price, whose Boston contract means he's still owed $127m over the next 4 seasons.
While I have no doubt that Price will have a bad deal in the future, it isn't that yet.

He was great in the post season for once and put up a 4.4 WAR last season compared to our starting rotation combining for 5.4 WAR (Happ, Stro, Sanchez, Borucki, Estrada)
 

Discoverer

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While I have no doubt that Price will have a bad deal in the future, it isn't that yet.

He was great in the post season for once and put up a 4.4 WAR last season compared to our starting rotation combining for 5.4 WAR (Happ, Stro, Sanchez, Borucki, Estrada)

Unfortunately for Boston, they've gotten 8.8 fWAR for $90 million in the first three years. There's no surplus value there. At best, they've broken even.

If the first few years of a long-term, big money contract for a 30+ player are in the "break even" range, the contract looks really bad. That's not to say he can't turn it around and hold off decline for a few years like Verlander or something, but these contracts are always intended to have significant surplus value up front.

(Of course, Boston has a World Series to show for their investment, so I'm sure they're ok with it. But that doesn't mean it would look good on a team like the Jays. It would be ugly.)
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Why baseball's free-agency shift could benefit Blue Jays' future - Sportsnet.ca

Decent article talking about the shift in free agent spending over the last couple of years. Definitely have noticed this. I think analytics has a lot to do with it, we can now quantify performance down to actual dollar value, and project aging curves making offers more informed and less arbitrary/beholden to market forces.
Through Saturday, there had been 66 Major League contracts signed by free agents, 57 of which were less than three years and almost half of which (31) were one-year contracts. And woe to position players, of which only two (third baseman Eduardo Escobar and right-fielder Andrew McCutcheon) have signed deals of more than two seasons.
 
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hockeywiz542

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He knew he was frustrated with the way his season had unfolded both on and off of the field, but he wasn’t sure what to expect when he met Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins for lunch in September.

They spoke for a while on a wide range of topics: Pompey’s 2018 performance, his goals for 2019 and his standing in the organization. Eventually, the conversation shifted and Atkins suggested that Pompey could benefit from talking to someone he trusts on a more personal level about his successes and struggles.

"Because it’s a lot," Pompey said. "Being a professional athlete is a lot."

Months later, Pompey’s talking to a life coach every two weeks– "she’s basically like my therapist"– and those conversations have improved his state of mind. As he heads into a make-or-break year with the Blue Jays, the 26-year-old outfielder says he’s better equipped to handle baseball’s inevitable failure, and hopeful some new ways of thinking will help him deliver on the field in 2019.

"This is a big year for me to try to keep my mind right," Pompey said. "She really helps me. She always tells me: she’s not my friend, she’s there to let me know her opinion and then be real with me. I feel like I’m in a better frame of mind–the best frame of mind I’ve been in since I can remember."


A friend recommended the life coach to Pompey, who connects with her on FaceTime. Already, their conversations have prompted Pompey to reflect and learn from events that held him back in the past.

"Whether it’s interactions with some people, things that happened on the field," Pompey said. "Maybe a couple of failures that I had–just getting over them, because I could never get over them. Looking back, I wish I could have, but I just didn’t know how to. She gave me the tools to do that."
 

TheMadHatTrick

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I hope the Jays are proactive in identifying and locking up core players early to below market deals. I don't think that will happen with Vlad and Bo, but what guys could you see us doing it with? Jansen? Maybe Gurriel?

The Astros scored big when they locked up Altuve early before his breakout (Four-years $12.5 million, with two club options worth $6 and $6.5 million respectively). That's insane surplus value. Then again there's risk, like when they signed Singleton, who ended up busting.

They're different sports, but you look at Nylander and Marner, and both might look like we signed them to extensions a season too late. Marner's number for sure rose 2-3 million from what it might have been in June when we were talking about 8-8.5M.
 

theaub

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Its all good until you do it with guys who don't turn out to be core players (see: Hinske, Rios etc)
 

phillipmike

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I hope the Jays are proactive in identifying and locking up core players early to below market deals. I don't think that will happen with Vlad and Bo, but what guys could you see us doing it with? Jansen? Maybe Gurriel?

The Astros scored big when they locked up Altuve early before his breakout (Four-years $12.5 million, with two club options worth $6 and $6.5 million respectively). That's insane surplus value. Then again there's risk, like when they signed Singleton, who ended up busting.

They're different sports, but you look at Nylander and Marner, and both might look like we signed them to extensions a season too late. Marner's number for sure rose 2-3 million from what it might have been in June when we were talking about 8-8.5M.

This FO with their track record in Cleveland has shown they always look for team friendly deals that can provide surplus value.

Prime examples are Kluber and Carrasco. That is a Cy Young candidate for the last 5 years (won 2) who has made a total of 25M in his career so far. He is guaranteed 17M this season then club options at 17.5M and 18M. Similarly, a #2 starter in Carrasco who made 23M in his career and has very affordable salary commitments coming up. The only one they didnt come out as huge winners were the Kipnis deal - they did get three 4+ WAR seasons out of him before injuries hit - last 2 years have not looked good but has one more year left.

This group will look for any advantage to get their young players to sign below market deals. Its only a matter if they are willing to sign - as you say most star players arent willing to sign because they know more money is on the way through arbitration and on the market if you are willing to bet on yourself. But we might see a shift, free agency has proven not to be kind to players approaching 30 or in their 30s. Even guys like Machado and Harper were expected to get a floor of 300M and at least 10 years. Looks like Machado's best offer in under 300M and 7-8 years so far and the 400M contract Harper was hoping to get doesnt look to be coming. I think MLBTR predicted 12 and 14 year deals for these guys - the days of paying crazy money seem to be shrinking and that might play in the Jays advantage with guys like Bo and Vladdy when it comes to extension talks.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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This FO with their track record in Cleveland has shown they always look for team friendly deals that can provide surplus value.

Prime examples are Kluber and Carrasco. That is a Cy Young candidate for the last 5 years (won 2) who has made a total of 25M in his career so far. He is guaranteed 17M this season then club options at 17.5M and 18M. Similarly, a #2 starter in Carrasco who made 23M in his career and has very affordable salary commitments coming up. The only one they didnt come out as huge winners were the Kipnis deal - they did get three 4+ WAR seasons out of him before injuries hit - last 2 years have not looked good but has one more year left.

This group will look for any advantage to get their young players to sign below market deals. Its only a matter if they are willing to sign - as you say most star players arent willing to sign because they know more money is on the way through arbitration and on the market if you are willing to bet on yourself. But we might see a shift, free agency has proven not to be kind to players approaching 30 or in their 30s. Even guys like Machado and Harper were expected to get a floor of 300M and at least 10 years. Looks like Machado's best offer in under 300M and 7-8 years so far and the 400M contract Harper was hoping to get doesnt look to be coming. I think MLBTR predicted 12 and 14 year deals for these guys - the days of paying crazy money seem to be shrinking and that might play in the Jays advantage with guys like Bo and Vladdy when it comes to extension talks.

The first Carrasco deal is exactly the kind of gamble you like to see. You see the stuff and potential but he's just coming off a year where he broke out (splitting time btw bullpen) but had no track record so he wants security. Not sure if he just likes the organization though, cause he recently resigned with the organization for barely more than he would make in his last two option years.
 

Woodman19

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Hes kind of old at this point to really matter long term lol, I dont know why hes still on the 40 man.
 

phillipmike

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A's were my darkhorse to make the wildcard last season.

The Rays moves in the last calendar have been incredible in my eyes. I have them 2nd in the AL East.
 

NeverGoingToWin

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Our buddy Keith Law released his on January 31 last year. There is a 100% chance he whines about Vlad’s Service time when posts his.
 

phillipmike

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One month today and the catchers and pitchers report.

Anyone know when the top prospect lists come out. Is it before spring training or during?

MLB.com:
Tue, Jan. 15 - Top 10 RHP
Wed, Jan. 16 - Top 10 LHP
Thu, Jan. 17 - Top 10 C
Fri, Jan. 18 - Top 10 1B
Mon, Jan. 21 - Top 10 2B
Tue, Jan. 22 - Top 10 3B
Wed, Jan. 23 - Top 10 SS
Thu, Jan. 24 - Top 10 OF
Sat, Jan 26 - Top 100

Teams Top 30 - Feb 2019
International Top 30 - May 2019

This is a great site for a rundown on all 2019 lists;

http://fantasyrundown.com/2019-baseball-prospect-rankings/

Should tide you over.
 
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Discoverer

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Hes kind of old at this point to really matter long term lol, I dont know why hes still on the 40 man.

If he was DFAd by another team, I would love it if the Jays signed him as a long shot. 26 year old former top prospect? That's not a bad player to target. Might as well keep him and see what he does this spring.

I didn't expect it, but I'm glad they seem to be giving him a final chance to earn a place on the team.
 
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canucksfan

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MLB.com:
Tue, Jan. 15 - Top 10 RHP
Wed, Jan. 16 - Top 10 LHP
Thu, Jan. 17 - Top 10 C
Fri, Jan. 18 - Top 10 1B
Mon, Jan. 21 - Top 10 2B
Tue, Jan. 22 - Top 10 3B
Wed, Jan. 23 - Top 10 SS
Thu, Jan. 24 - Top 10 OF
Sat, Jan 26 - Top 100

Teams Top 30 - Feb 2019
International Top 30 - May 2019

This is a great site for a rundown on all 2019 lists;

http://fantasyrundown.com/2019-baseball-prospect-rankings/

Should tide you over.

Looking at one of the lists, Forrest Wall at fifth overall in Jays prospects in the most eye opener!
 

Doug Gilmour

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Not so much a "label" as it is my expectations based on his ridiculous numbers from the last two years at the upper levels of the minors and in his brief major league stint. If he was a 1B prospect with those numbers we would be understandably excited about him. For a catcher? That's just amazing.

If you can't expect big things right away from a catcher entering his age-24 season with the kinds of numbers he's had the last two years then you should probably never expect any rookie to be good right away.
I understand. With the small sample we got from him last season, it is looking very promising (I want to see him succeed and do well just don’t want to see unnecessary expectations that lead to unwanted results if that makes sense).
 

Skin Tape Session

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Why baseball's free-agency shift could benefit Blue Jays' future - Sportsnet.ca

Decent article talking about the shift in free agent spending over the last couple of years. Definitely have noticed this. I think analytics has a lot to do with it, we can now quantify performance down to actual dollar value, and project aging curves making offers more informed and less arbitrary/beholden to market forces.

I really like the trend. However the younger players would be smart to band together and ask for a cap and new contract rights. If they are able to f*** the vetrans over, get a cap in there the owners will have to spend it. They have shown they are starting to prefer younger players so that money will be theirs as it will have to be spent.

The owners would love to keep paying young elite talent through rnw and arb rights. If they are smart they sell the vetrans down the river. Plus it would make baseball more competitive imo
 
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