Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

[Cor]

I am really high on this rebuild. A prospect who could soon compete with Trout for the best player in the league. Bichette is a stud. 120 million to spend in 2 years which is 2 years of development for the young guys. Jansen is also a stud. Assuming the Jays can get a good rotation in order (I am very high on Pearson), this team will be monstrous.

Speaking of Mike Trout, he's a free agent in 2021

 

[Apotheosis]

Speaking of Mike Trout, he's a free agent in 2021

Vlad, Trout, Bichette, Jansen?

YES PLEASE

 

[Cor]

Vlad, Trout, Bichette, Jansen?

YES PLEASE

I would be severely disappointed if we aren't involved in the Trout talks when he goes to FA, which, unless LAA trades him beforehand, he almost certainly will.

Especially since the 2020 FA class is kinda aging and meh, so I doubt we spend much payroll there next winter.

So 2021, we should have a good idea of how good our young core is, and A LOT of money to spend to surround them.

This rebuild has a lot of potential, it all depends on how players develop and how bold we want to be.

 

[Apotheosis]

I would be severely disappointed if we aren't involved in the Trout talks when he goes to FA, which, unless LAA trades him beforehand, he almost certainly will.

Especially since the 2020 FA class is kinda aging and meh, so I doubt we spend much payroll there next winter.

So 2021, we should have a good idea of how good our young core is, and A LOT of money to spend to surround them.

This rebuild has a lot of potential, it all depends on how players develop and how bold we want to be.

There's no reason not to be involved really. There's two years to see just how good the young core will be. If projections are anything to factor in, Vlad will be a top player, as will Jansen, and Bichette will be extremely important at the top of the order. That's something a guy like Trout could supplement quite easily. As I said, if a good rotation comes about in that time, we are set for a while. Money spent on Trout and pitching would go a long way to being a stable contender.

 

[The Nemesis]

Unless they move out a couple of Giles/Tepera/Barnes/Biagini, he doesn't make sense on anything more than a minor league deal.

That's all he got last time, so I expect it would be the same again. Which is fine, because hoarding potential pen arms and just going full thunderdome in spring training is probably the best way to build a bullpen anyway.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Trout (age 29 in 2021) is going to be seeking 25-30 million over 8 to 10 years.

Unless this is a backsliding contract, its pretty funny that the people complaining about Martin's 5 year 82M contract he signed at age 31 would be okay with this.

The bad thing about his contract was that it was back-climbing so that it was lower on the front end, and we were paying 20M for three years of decline.

If Trout gets, let's say 27M over 8 years. You're likely to be paying 27M for 3 years of decline, assuming normal aging curves. That's all good though, right?

 

[Cloned]

Trout (age 29 in 2021) is going to be seeking 25-30 million over 8 to 10 years.

Unless this is a backsliding contract, its pretty funny that the people complaining about Martin's 5 year 82M contract he signed at age 31 would be okay with this.

The bad thing about his contract was that it was back-climbing so that it was lower on the front end, and we were paying 20M for three years of decline.

If Trout gets, let's say 27M over 8 years. You're likely to be paying 27M for 3 years of decline, assuming normal aging curves. That's all good though, right?

At some point you're likely going to have to eat big salary during years of decline in order to secure some years of a great player's prime. The MLB CBA doesn't allow for early free agency so if you dip into FA to sign a star player, you're likely going to have to risk eating 2-3 years of decline at big salary near the end of the contract.

I mean everyone got on Boston for signing JD Martinez to big money at age 31, but I don't think they're really regretting it right now, and even if he becomes a 20M player hitting .200 in the last 1-2 years of his contract I still don't think they'll really regret the contract.

 

[Habaneros]

Speaking of Mike Trout, he's a free agent in 2021

sounds fishy ....

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

At some point you're likely going to have to eat big salary during years of decline in order to secure some years of a great player's prime.

I mean everyone got on Boston for signing JD Martinez to big money at age 31, but I don't think they're really regretting it right now, and even if he becomes a 20M player hitting .200 in the last 1-2 years of his contract I still don't think they'll really regret the contract.

That's the point. We aren't at the point where Shapkins has had to make that decision yet (when they took over we were entering the end of the competitive window), and yet people are praising them for not handing out such a contract. They probably will eventually, so it's intellectually dishonest to compare what they've done in the first three years at the helm to what AA did in his 6th.

 

[Cloned]

That's the point. We aren't at the point where Shapkins has had to make that decision yet (when they took over we were entering the end of the competitive window), and yet people are praising them for not handing out such a contract. They probably will eventually, so it's intellectually dishonest to compare what they've done in the first three years at the helm to what AA did in his 6th.

They are? Most of the Shatkins talk here has been "they're horrible." I'm not sure I've seen a post explicitly praising them for not signing a certain player.

 

[Discoverer]

Trout (age 29 in 2021) is going to be seeking 25-30 million over 8 to 10 years.

Unless this is a backsliding contract, its pretty funny that the people complaining about Martin's 5 year 82M contract he signed at age 31 would be okay with this.

The bad thing about his contract was that it was back-climbing so that it was lower on the front end, and we were paying 20M for three years of decline.

If Trout gets, let's say 27M over 8 years. You're likely to be paying 27M for 3 years of decline, assuming normal aging curves. That's all good though, right?

If Trout has a couple more ~10 WAR seasons between now and then you would have to be stupid not to offer him $300 million no matter how it's divided year to year.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

They are? Most of the Shatkins talk here has been "they're horrible." I'm not sure I've seen a post explicitly praising them for not signing a certain player.

Just to be clear, I said nothing about a certain player. More about contract types.

I am just happy that Shapiro and Atkins at no point got baited into signing a brutal deal of their own

Hoarding prospects and not locking up expensive old players to crippling unmovable contracts (Bautista, Donaldson and Edwin)

They are trying to clean up the huge unmovable contract mess left by the previous regime.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

If Trout has a couple more ~10 WAR seasons between now and then you would have to be stupid not to offer him $300 million no matter how it's divided year to year.

I was being conservative for arguments sake. He'll probably want like 300M over 10 years but I didn't want it to seem like I was creating a straw man contract to argue against.

 

[Cloned]

Fair enough.

Although it's still different comparing signing a 29 year old Mike Trout to signing a 33+ year old declining Bautista/Encarnacion/etc. Being OK with the former is different than advocating for the latter. Some people are just glad that Shatkins didn't sign them to another contract, but not necessarily angry that AA signed them to their previous contracts.

And I'm not even a big Shatkins fan myself.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Fair enough.

Although it's still different comparing signing a 29 year old Mike Trout to signing a 33+ year old declining Bautista/Encarnacion/etc. Being OK with the former is different than advocating for the latter. Some people are just glad that Shatkins didn't sign them to another contract, but not necessarily angry that AA signed them to their previous contracts.

And I'm not even a big Shatkins fan myself.

Not really comparing it to those guys since those would have been re-signings. More to Martin who was a free agent and we had to compete against other teams. Not perfect comparison either given age though, but that's why his contract wasn't as long.

One good thing I've seen is the market isn't quite as generous these days as it used to be. Probably some combination of analytics and luxury tax.

 

[Cloned]

Not really comparing it to those guys since those would have been re-signings. More to Martin who was a free agent and we had to compete against other teams. Not perfect comparison either given age though, but that's why his contract wasn't as long.

One good thing I've seen is the market isn't quite as generous these days as it used to be. Probably some combination of analytics and luxury tax.

I think most people here were generally understanding of Martin's contract, even in the last year when he really struggled offensively.

MLB is actually the most advanced of the NA pro sports leagues as far as management not making stupid decisions as a whole. Probably because their CBA is one of the more balanced ones (no cap, but near archaic strict team control up to almost age 30 on a drafted player).

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I think most people here were generally understanding of Martin's contract, even in the last year when he really struggled offensively.

MLB is actually the most advanced of the NA pro sports leagues as far as management not making stupid decisions as a whole. Probably because their CBA is one of the more balanced ones (no cap, but near archaic strict team control up to almost age 30 on a drafted player).

I'm really curious to see what Harper and Machado get. Super young, elite players. They should get well over 300M over 10 but probably won't blow it up like one would expect (35M per) unless it's exactly 10 years or less.

 

[Cloned]

I'm really curious to see what Harper and Machado get. Super young, elite players. They should get well over 300M over 10 but probably won't blow it up like one would expect (35M per) unless it's exactly 10 years or less.

Not as much as you would expect I think.

They both bring power and lineup presence, but it's not like they're generational 5 tool players like Trout is. Both of them have defined limitations to their games.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Not as much as you would expect I think.

They both bring power and lineup presence, but it's not like they're generational 5 tool players like Trout is. Both of them have defined limitations to their games.

That's what I think too.

Report: Phillies "Optimistic" They'll Sign Bryce Harper Or Manny Machado

Washington isn’t prepared to pay Harper more than $25MM per year, Nightengale suggests. The Phillies, meanwhile, haven’t submitted a formal offer to Harper yet, but that should change during the upcoming week, according to Nightengale.

 

[canucksfan]

I would be severely disappointed if we aren't involved in the Trout talks when he goes to FA, which, unless LAA trades him beforehand, he almost certainly will.

Especially since the 2020 FA class is kinda aging and meh, so I doubt we spend much payroll there next winter.

So 2021, we should have a good idea of how good our young core is, and A LOT of money to spend to surround them.

This rebuild has a lot of potential, it all depends on how players develop and how bold we want to be.

One area this regime has been great is being patient and allowing the players to develop in the minors. There are very few aggressive promotions, and if they are, they are well deserved. I was reading an opinion piece by a scout who believed in previous years, the Jays would promote payers too early.

There are quite a few players in the minors who I am very curious to see how well they do this year at higher levels.

 

[The Nemesis]

Fangraphs' look at the prospects from the Martin trade

Russell Martin Fetches Two Fringe Prospects

Sopko is the more likely of the two to wear a major league uniform, as his skills are constantly desired among teams seeking to build starting pitching depth at Double and Triple-A in the event of big league injuries. He’s an efficient strike-thrower with spot starter’s stuff; a fastball that resides in the 88-92 range, an average changeup that flashes above, and a slurvy breaking ball with enough depth that it will be an issue for hitters who struggle to square up break.
Pitchers with this kind of stuff are typically found at the very back of the rotation or waiting to pick up a start due to injury. The frequency with which pitchers get hurt makes teams’ 6th-8th starters very important, as they may have to make meaningful starts at some point during the year. Sopko projects to be a very competent version of this.

Brito is more boom or bust... Brito does have legitimate, above-average raw power, and he’s capable of hitting balls out to all fields, even as a teenager, something not typical of middle infield prospects.
What eyeball scouts are skeptical of, though, is Brito’s bat. He’s free-swinging and prone to the strike out. His swing has gone through several iterations — a leg kick was implemented and then uninstalled for a while last fall, for one — and all of this mechanical variability makes it harder to evaluate Brito as a hitter. But a lack of plate discipline makes Brito’s contact profile high risk, even if there’s natural feel for contact here once his swing gets dialed in.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

White Sox Have Made Eight-Year Offer To Manny Machado?

11:25pm: The eight-year offer is worth $250MM, as per Z101Digital’s Hector Gomez (hat tip to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin.

 

[BlueForever75]

Fangraphs' look at the prospects from the Martin trade

Russell Martin Fetches Two Fringe Prospects

Brito sounds like the scouting report we got on Gurriel when he was first signed. The kid is 19 and there is no reason not to believe he will get better and become a legit prospect for the Jays. Where was Smith and Biggio at 19? Look at them now in our system a year or two later.

To actually be able to receive to young players for Martin alone regardless of what we are paying is a win for the Jays. Anyone that sees this otherwise, regardless of the current scouting reports on the players we received is stupid. No one thought anything of what we received in the past in other deals (Hutchison deal, Liriano deal, Smith deal, etc..), the players we received turned out to be legit prospects in our organization. Only time will tell, but at this time to early to tell.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't mind the trade itself and think moving Martin was always going to be the best move for everyone regardless of the return, but the prospects are pretty uninspiring (though that may be more a reflection of my personal preferences in prospects rather than an issue with the value itself).

 

[BAM]

Trout (age 29 in 2021) is going to be seeking 25-30 million over 8 to 10 years.

Unless this is a backsliding contract, its pretty funny that the people complaining about Martin's 5 year 82M contract he signed at age 31 would be okay with this.

The bad thing about his contract was that it was back-climbing so that it was lower on the front end, and we were paying 20M for three years of decline.

If Trout gets, let's say 27M over 8 years. You're likely to be paying 27M for 3 years of decline, assuming normal aging curves. That's all good though, right?

All great teams will have to bite the bullet on some expensive contracts. Even the Leafs if you want to compare a potential Trout signing to Tavares. Tavares probably won't be worth $11 million when he's 33-34, he is however going to be worth the money for most of the contract.

If in 2 years Vlad establishes himself as Miggy/Pujols clone and the Jays are right there, getting Trout would be almost perfect. If you can't spend big money on the best baseball player bar none, who else are you going to spend it on? Trout might decline athletically in his 30's but his bat is prolific and should age well.

Catchers also break down the quickest out of any position on the field, comparing Martin to signing Trout at age 29 are 2 very different things. Trout is a McDavid, Lebron, once-in-a-generation/lifetime kind of player.