Prospect Info: Vasili Podkolzin, Pt. II

[Teflon Jim]

Struck lightning with Boeser, Gaudette, Demko, Madden, etc etc etc. Benning is like a cloud full of crepuscular rays

You forgot lightening colored unicorns and double rainbows

 

[Teflon Jim]

Hmmm ... it's almost like that group of players has something in common. And it isn't Jim Benning.

4 picks knocked out of the park from the USHL from the backyard and home league of the scouting director we're about to let go so Benning and Weisbrod can do more amateur scouting.

If Jim gets the blame for missed picks then he get the cheers for the hits.
If the draft is a bust then the GM gets the blame for hiring or keeping the draft scouting team.

 

[Teflon Jim]

JT Miller has nothing to do with drafting and young players. Neither does Markstrom, really. And you probably don't want to have a discussion about how Bennings trade/FA targets have done relative to expectations. Gudbranson? Sutter? Eriksson? Myers?

Bo Horvat has never been anywhere near 70 points.

Boeser has been a massive disappointment since the first 40 games of his career.

Never rainbows and unicorns with you just 40 days of rain eh.

 

[WTG]

I have nothing against leaning towards Conservative projections but virtually every single one of our core players have dramatically defied those projections. Beginning to notice a pattern here.

Well, they wouldn't be core players if they didn't exceed expectations/met them.

Juolevi - projected core player
Virtanen - projected core player
Sutter - "foundational"
Gudbranson - big 24 year old top 4 RHD who would be a "beast" in the playoffs

 

[Hit the post]

Well, they wouldn't be core players if they didn't exceed expectations/met them.

Juolevi - projected core player
Virtanen - projected core player
Sutter - "foundational"
Gudbranson - big 24 year old top 4 RHD who would be a "beast" in the playoffs

Ancient rome had the Triumvirate - Pompey, Crassus, and Caesar:

Our board's version:

WTG - foundational Mod
Hit the Post - core Mod
Zombotron - core Mod

 

[VancouverJagger]

If MS says our 10th overall pick is “acceptable” it means Podkolzin is going to be a slam dunk 1st liner in the NHL and probably another Calder candidate. Can’t wait to see him in the blue and green.

Yeah your analysis of Cliff Claven is BANG ON...........He's gonna fit really well in our top 6 and become a fan favourite with his energy and motor. Can't wait to see him in a Nucks uni.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Well, they wouldn't be core players if they didn't exceed expectations/met them.

Juolevi - projected core player
Virtanen - projected core player
Sutter - "foundational"
Gudbranson - big 24 year old top 4 RHD who would be a "beast" in the playoffs

All 4 players who were massively de railed by injuries early in their careers and/or during their time as Canucks.

 

[WTG]

All 4 players who were massively de railed by injuries early in their careers and/or during their time as Canucks.

Sutter and Gudbranson were known quantities before coming the Van. Still were touted as core players.
You can make a case to players Benning has signed long term, like Eriksson and Myers.
I disagree on Juolevi due to his D+1 and his draft but for the sake of discussion, sure you can make the case that of injuries.

Virtanen? No.
Sutter? No.
Gudbranson? No.
Eriksson? No.
Myers? No.

Players make it, players don't. Some exceed expectations, some don't. Not every player that the Canuck org have touted as a future/current core player has lived up to expectation/exceeded them.

 

[whoshouse]

Show where I said that. 2nd pairing, yes.

Man, people like inventing lies today.

Genuinely curious, as I remember you weren’t as high on him during the WJC as everyone else, what do you think about Hughes potential after watching him this season?

His defence is fairly similar to a Duncan Keith. Not particularly stifling. He’s just always in the right spot and covers a large space of ice. His skating is almost used just as much on D as it is on offence.

Anyways. I’m actually liking Podkolzin even more now than I did before the season started. And I don’t think anyone should delve too much in to the numbers as the KHL environment is incredibly hard to judge.

One thing I will concede is that I do think Podkolzin isn’t exactly a high end goal scorer, at least he hasn’t developed that part of his game yet. But, as we’ve seen with Hughes, a better measurement of potential is IQ. And it seems like Podkolzin has that in spades.

I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll stand by it.. He reminds me of Horvat. Podkolzin has more bite and edge to him and Podkolzin is perhaps more polished offensively but I can see the same play style in both of them. You can even see a bit of JT Miller in him too. Obviously without the shot but maybe a better passer. But just a guy that wins puck battles and does the little things right.

Super excited to see Podkolzin come to NA. He’s the type of player that you win with.

It’s too bad Benning keeps trading his picks away.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Pettersson's best 10 games as a Canuck were his first 10. He's still been very good, but hasn't built off that start really. Nobody is comparing him to Gretzky anymore.

If you'd asked me to project, I said 50-60 points as a rookie and then would have expect a jump from there maybe into the 70 range. He's been about 10 points better than that. Which is significant but not huge.

About, basically, maybe... You hedge so much I feel like we need to send in a landscaper to debate you.

 

[Hoghandler]

About, basically, maybe... You hedge so much I feel like we need to send in a landscaper to debate you.

To be fair, 78 points is only around 50% more than what he projected. It's not really that different, is it? I mean, they're both numbers.

 

[sting101]

Take your Benning crap to the right threads.

Podkolzin is on a role

 

[MS]

About, basically, maybe... You hedge so much I feel like we need to send in a landscaper to debate you.

I'm not sure how I could be more clear. Based on Pettersson's 17-18 season, I expected Petersson to step in as an impact player. I expected him to track as a #1 center. He's been a bit ahead of what I expected but not exceptionally so. I'm not 'surprised' at his progress. Conversely, based on his performance last year, Quinn Hughes I am surprised about.

To be fair, 78 points is only around 50% more than what he projected. It's not really that different, is it? I mean, they're both numbers.

What did you project for Pettersson? Provide evidence, please.

 

[sting101]

I'm not sure how I could be more clear. Based on Pettersson's 17-18 season, I expected Petersson to step in as an impact player. I expected him to track as a #1 center. He's been a bit ahead of what I expected but not exceptionally so. I'm not 'surprised' at his progress. Conversely, based on his performance last year, Quinn Hughes I am surprised about.
What did you project for Pettersson? Provide evidence, please.

who cares. You were wrong let it go or take it elsewhere

 

[Tables of Stats]

I'm not sure how I could be more clear. Based on Pettersson's 17-18 season, I expected Petersson to step in as an impact player. I expected him to track as a #1 center. He's been a bit ahead of what I expected but not exceptionally so. I'm not 'surprised' at his progress. Conversely, based on his performance last year, Quinn Hughes I am surprised about.

So, to be clear, a player you expected to hit around 55 points in 82 games was on pace to clear that by ~20 points and that's "[A] bit ahead of what I expected but not exceptionally so." Is this what you've been saying or have all your qualifiers shrouded the truth?

 

[MS]

Genuinely curious, as I remember you weren’t as high on him during the WJC as everyone else, what do you think about Hughes potential after watching him this season?

His defence is fairly similar to a Duncan Keith. Not particularly stifling. He’s just always in the right spot and covers a large space of ice. His skating is almost used just as much on D as it is on offence.

I'm shocked at how good he's been. I'm not sold on him defensively but he's tracking to be the best offensive defender in the NHL.

Last year, in 10-12 games I saw, he was constantly overhandling the puck and stickhandling into trouble. Being too cute, not using the players around him. Looked selfish at times. This year, he looks like the smartest player on the ice in his interactions with his teammates around him and is always making the right play with the puck. It's a huge change.

Anyways. I’m actually liking Podkolzin even more now than I did before the season started. And I don’t think anyone should delve too much in to the numbers as the KHL environment is incredibly hard to judge.

One thing I will concede is that I do think Podkolzin isn’t exactly a high end goal scorer, at least he hasn’t developed that part of his game yet. But, as we’ve seen with Hughes, a better measurement of potential is IQ. And it seems like Podkolzin has that in spades.

I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll stand by it.. He reminds me of Horvat. Podkolzin has more bite and edge to him and Podkolzin is perhaps more polished offensively but I can see the same play style in both of them. You can even see a bit of JT Miller in him too. Obviously without the shot but maybe a better passer. But just a guy that wins puck battles and does the little things right.

Super excited to see Podkolzin come to NA. He’s the type of player that you win with.

It’s too bad Benning keeps trading his picks away.

I like Podkolzin. If he was from NA, I'd say he was a dead lock to be a quality middle-6 NHL winger at worst. Russians I'm scared to death of, however.

I've compared him to Evander Kane for a long time in terms of how he skates and his motor and how and drives the play forward. And a non-rapey Evander Kane is a huge asset. But Kane can finish, and that's the big question with Podkolzin. He has 7 goals in 56 games this year in all competitions. And yeah, the KHL games get an asterisk, but he hasn't finished against U-20 or lower-level Russian competition either. And if he can't finish and isn't really a PP guy, maybe he tops out as a really good 3rd liner.

 

[MS]

So, to be clear, a player you expected to hit around 55 points in 82 games was on pace to clear that by ~20 points and that's "[A] bit ahead of what I expected but not exceptionally so." Is this what you've been saying or have all your qualifiers shrouded the truth?

Uh, when you look at his first two years, yeah. He was a guy I projected as an impact rookie and a #1 center. Like, I was one of the highest people on him here when everyone was panicking because he was too skinny. I sat here for a year giving Gaudreau and RNH comparisons for why he wouldn't die as a 165 lb rookie.

By his 2nd season, I expected he'd be a ~70 point player and he's a 75-80 point player. He's done well. But I don't think anything truly surprising has happened here based on how ridiculous his 17-18 season was. I'm not sure why I'm getting taken to task for this. Hughes I'm surprised by and have said as much repeatedly. Pettersson, no. He was a top-5 pick with a massive draft+1 season and was tracking as a major impact player before he got here.

 

[Melvin]

Uh, when you look at his first two years, yeah. He was a guy I projected as an impact rookie and a #1 center. Like, I was one of the highest people on him here when everyone was panicking because he was too skinny. I sat here for a year giving Gaudreau and RNH comparisons for why he wouldn't die as a 165 lb rookie.

By his 2nd season, I expected he'd be a ~70 point player and he's a 75-80 point player. He's done well. But I don't think anything truly surprising has happened here based on how ridiculous his 17-18 season was. I'm not sure why I'm getting taken to task for this. Hughes I'm surprised by and have said as much repeatedly. Pettersson, no. He was a top-5 pick with a massive draft+1 season and was tracking as a major impact player before he got here.

He basically can't grasp that you are talking about where he is now and he can't let go of him exceeding your "50 to 60 point" projection of him last year.

 

[whoshouse]

I like Podkolzin. If he was from NA, I'd say he was a dead lock to be a quality middle-6 NHL winger at worst. Russians I'm scared to death of, however.

I've compared him to Evander Kane for a long time in terms of how he skates and his motor and how and drives the play forward. And a non-rapey Evander Kane is a huge asset. But Kane can finish, and that's the big question with Podkolzin. He has 7 goals in 56 games this year in all competitions. And yeah, the KHL games get an asterisk, but he hasn't finished against U-20 or lower-level Russian competition either. And if he can't finish and isn't really a PP guy, maybe he tops out as a really good 3rd liner.

I think Kane’s a decent comparable. Kane may actually have more offensive weapons but Podkolzins IQ is what I think will seperate the two.

It’s funny. The assumption was that Podkolzins IQ may be a weakness since his stats were a bit underwhelming but I actually think Pods low stats have been because of his lack of confidence with his shot. His shot might be weakness but it’s definitely something that can be worked on and improved.

I was a little scared of Hughes shooting ability. Wasnt sure about the pick since a pp specialist without a good shot sounds very one dimensional and not worthy of a top 10 pick. But like I mentioned before, his iq made up for it. And it seems like he’s worked on it enough that opposing players can just saag off him. I think the same can be said with Pod.

 

[MS]

He basically can't grasp that you are talking about where he is now and he can't let go of him exceeding your "50 to 60 point" projection of him last year.

Pretty much.

My jaw was on the floor over his first 10 games. Since those first 10 games, his development has been pretty much as expected.

 

[Hansen]

Pretty much.

My jaw was on the floor over his first 10 games. Since those first 10 games, his development has been pretty much as expected.

The team also immediately began to rely on him to generate almost all of our offense and got incredibly lazy. His line basically became our only scoring line and all of the others are defensive, making it very easy to match against him and play him hard. This is the one upside to acquiring more scoring players, we can finally take some of that pressure off of him. Hughes' emergence has also been critical to help alleviate the load

 

[sting101]

deleted

 

[Tables of Stats]

Uh, when you look at his first two years, yeah. He was a guy I projected as an impact rookie and a #1 center. Like, I was one of the highest people on him here when everyone was panicking because he was too skinny. I sat here for a year giving Gaudreau and RNH comparisons for why he wouldn't die as a 165 lb rookie.

By his 2nd season, I expected he'd be a ~70 point player and he's a 75-80 point player. He's done well. But I don't think anything truly surprising has happened here based on how ridiculous his 17-18 season was. I'm not sure why I'm getting taken to task for this. Hughes I'm surprised by and have said as much repeatedly. Pettersson, no. He was a top-5 pick with a massive draft+1 season and was tracking as a major impact player before he got here.

So you were wrong about where he'd land in year one, where he exceeded your expectations. I could care less about where he's been over a two year span which is just you shifting the goal posts to avoid admitting to being wrong about his year one.

He basically can't grasp that you are talking about where he is now and he can't let go of him exceeding your "50 to 60 point" projection of him last year.

If MS wanted to talk about this season he'd never have brought up stats from Pettersson's first year. If MS had just admitted that he didn't expect Pettersson to be near PPG in his first season I would have moved on. Instead we've gone from talking about a 50-60 point prediction, his first 10 games, and now his first two years of play. I'm running a marathon trying to catch these goalposts as they fly by.

 

[MS]

Seriously who gives a shit. Check your egos about being right about everything hockey. If you didn't pretend to know everything and be an expert that watches every player all the time which is bullshit then no one would be taking runs at mostly good analysis. Have some god damn humility you have been terribly wrong about the Canucks the last couple years and so many players in this market you would think it would knock you down a peg.

Huh?

I’ve repeatedly admitted to being wrong about Hughes and discussed it in detail.

Of the other players driving this team - Horvat, Pettersson, Boeser, Markstrom - I’ve been a big proponent of them for years.

Tanner Pearson I’m surprised by this year, although it gets a bit less once you take out the EN points.

This was a discussion of whether Pettersson to this point was surprising based on expectations in 2018 ... and sorry, but no, he hasn’t been.

Or maybe it was about calling me out about being negative on Podkolzin ... when I haven’t been at all.

 

[Diamonddog01]

About, basically, maybe... You hedge so much I feel like we need to send in a landscaper to debate you.

Dude has been doing this for the last decade, this is nothing new. Additionally, you're more likely to be right if you are negative regarding each and every prospect given the statistical odds of success for prospects. Doesn't mean that contributes much to the discussion however and the hyperbole is often laughable.