Speculation: Vasili Podkolzin NHL arrival? (read OP)

[MS]

Those KHL equivalency numbers get skewed. KHL’ers who flake out in the NHL usually don’t stick around to become 4th liners or call-up options. Meanwhile guys like Panarin, Kuznetsov and Tarasenko will obviously enjoy long successful NHL career as they pile up points.

Yup, generally only the most elite KHL guys come over to guaranteed NHL roster spots, and usually do so at a fairly young age where they're still improving.

You don't have, ever, a guy like a Jayson Megna (pretty decent offensive player in the AHL) getting 8 minutes/game on a 4th line and going from being a 50-point AHL player to a 10-point NHL player.

The context the numbers are generated in is completely different, which makes the numbers essentially worthless garbage.

 

[lawrence]

It'd be good to bring him after Pettersson signs his extension so the Canucks don't worry about giving him the big money for a while.

it actually depends if he's going to sign his 3 year elc at the end of the 2021 season to burn a year like a lot of college kids does or if we bring him in for the start of the 21 22 season, which then he will play out his 3 full years under his elc.

 

[Oliewud]

All I know is every damn time I watch podkolzin he does the little things right. You combine that with skill and you've got a player. It would be nice to see how he looks in the AHL.

 

[Ernie]

Any argument that the KHL is remotely comparable to the NHL is completely absurd. Period. End of story. It's an absolutely ludicrous thing to claim.

And yes, those equivalency scores are complete garbage.

We're done here. I hope you one day decide you want to be a serious contributor to this forum again.

 

[MS]

We're done here. I hope you one day decide you want to be a serious contributor to this forum again.

Trying to claim the KHL and NHL are comparable is a strange hill to die on and I fear the person trying to argue this might be the one who needs to evaluate the strengths of their contribution here. I say a lot of shit here that I know people disagree with and that I'm happy to flush out and argue, but saying that the NHL is vastly superior to the KHL is like saying the sun rises in the east. It's a cold hard fact, and someone trying to argue this isn't clued in to reality.

Also I note you didn't bother responding to the 2/3 of my rebuttal to your previous post where you were out in outer space and completely misquoting everything I said.

 

[Ernie]

Trying to claim the KHL and NHL are comparable is a strange hill to die on and I fear the person trying to argue this might be the one who needs to evaluate the strengths of their contribution here. I say a lot of shit here that I know people disagree with and that I'm happy to flush out and argue, but saying that the NHL is vastly superior to the KHL is like saying the sun rises in the east. It's a cold hard fact, and someone trying to argue this isn't clued in to reality.

Also I note you didn't bother responding to the 2/3 of my rebuttal to your previous post where you were out in outer space and completely misquoting everything I said.

lol OK dude. maybe I was wrong about your quote, honestly don't care enough to go back and read the nonsense again.

Just gonna leave this here:
2012‑2013 KHL Scoring Leaders

Feel free to get the last word in or whatever.

 

[Ernie]

Anyways here's my actual take on Podkolzin: he probably won't be an NHL quality player when his contract expires this spring.

He likely has the skill to be a 4th line player but it will take some adjustment to play the North American style. He's not a Pettersson.

BUT I expect the Canucks to shoehorn him in regardless. They will be desperate for cheap wingers next summer and will want to accelerate his development. Though if the Canucks are fighting for a playoff spot they may not want to take that short term hit.

 

[VanJack]

I think you'll get a better handle on where Podkolzin is at when he plays in the World Junior Championship. If he dominates, then the conversation shifts dramatically.

But even if he debuts with the Canucks on the fourth line, he's still a dramatic improvement on some of the guys who's contracts are dragging the team down by the ankles. Because Podkolzin is a responsible 200-foot player, he'll be effective on any line until his scoring comes around.

 

[THE Green Man]

All I know is every damn time I watch podkolzin he does the little things right. You combine that with skill and you've got a player. It would be nice to see how he looks in the AHL.

Sounds like we should trade him since we already have Loui “little things” Eriksson

 

[vancityluongo]

lol OK dude. maybe I was wrong about your quote, honestly don't care enough to go back and read the nonsense again.

Just gonna leave this here:
2012‑2013 KHL Scoring Leaders

Feel free to get the last word in or whatever.

Lots has changed since 2012-13, no?

Nikita Gusev Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Probably the best comparison, as the best player in the KHL in the last few years. Came to New Jersey and struggled initially, but finished off with a respectable 55 point pace over 82 games. His last KHL pace was at about 108 points in 82 games.

Based on just that data point alone, the NHLe of 0.8 does seem a little high, but idk if a 2/10 is the right number either.

In any case, the recent healthy scratches are obviously not great. Whether it's political or production based, I think that's a fair observation in a league where Markus Granlund is currently a superstar.

 

[MS]

lol OK dude. maybe I was wrong about your quote, honestly don't care enough to go back and read the nonsense again.

Just gonna leave this here:
2012‑2013 KHL Scoring Leaders

Feel free to get the last word in or whatever.

What exactly does that list (generated in a non-usual circumstance during an NHL lockout) mean about anything?

Niklas Jensen is a superstar in the KHL and scores at a 50 goal/82 GP pace there. Other ex-Canuck farmhands like Andrey Pedan, Curtis Valk, and Hunter Shinkaruk are quality players in that league. It isn't comparable to the NHL in any way. It isn't close. To try arguing this is ridiculous.

Like, sometimes it's hard to get a read on the Russian players because they're very unknown quantities. But there's a Finnish team in the KHL, and they're a powerhouse in that league - last year they finished 4th of 24 teams.

Jokerit Helsinki 2020-21 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

2 of the top 3 forwards on that team are Jordan Schroeder and Niklas Jensen, players this board should be pretty familiar with. The other is a tiny ex-Kings farmhand named Brian O'Neill who topped out at 50 points in the AHL. That is the forward core of one of the best teams in the KHL. It is absolute insanity to try claiming that a roster led by players like this is somehow even in the same stratosphere as even the worst NHL team. And that's an elite team at that level.

 

[4Twenty]

Posting the NHL lockout season to prop up KHL stats seems absolutely ridiculous. I'd rather read MS any day over that.

 

[MS]

Posting the NHL lockout season to prop up KHL stats seems absolutely ridiculous. I'd rather read MS any day over that.

I really don't understand this debate, and the fact I'm getting called a worthless poster because I'm saying the NHL is far better than the KHL kind of blows my mind.

Like, remember Curtis Valk? Little guy who got a PTO because of Willie Desjardins and hung around Utica and Kalamazoo for awhile on minor-league deals? That guy leads a KHL team in scoring right now.

 

[4Twenty]

What exactly does that list (generated in a non-usual circumstance during an NHL lockout) mean about anything?

Niklas Jensen is a superstar in the KHL and scores at a 50 goal/82 GP pace there. Other ex-Canuck farmhands like Andrey Pedan, Curtis Valk, and Hunter Shinkaruk are quality players in that league. It isn't comparable to the NHL in any way. It isn't close. To try arguing this is ridiculous.

Like, sometimes it's hard to get a read on the Russian players because they're very unknown quantities. But there's a Finnish team in the KHL, and they're a powerhouse in that league - last year they finished 4th of 24 teams.

Jokerit Helsinki 2020-21 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

2 of the top 3 forwards on that team are Jordan Schroeder and Niklas Jensen, players this board should be pretty familiar with. The other is a tiny ex-Kings farmhand named Brian O'Neill who topped out at 50 points in the AHL. That is the forward core of one of the best teams in the KHL. It is absolute insanity to try claiming that a roster led by players like this is somehow even in the same stratosphere as even the worst NHL team. And that's an elite team at that level.

I find it absolutely insane Ernie had to use the lockout year stats, when you look through the top 100 currently in the KHL and you have ex-Canucks: Granlund, Jensen, Shirokov, Schroeder, Spooner, Reid Boucher, Curtis Valk, and Vey.

8 former failed Vancouver Canucks are top 100 in the KHL scoring race.

In the next 100 we have Tryamkin, Goldobin, Leipsic, Pedan and Shinkaruk.

If anyone actually looks at some of the north american players who are successful in the KHL, guys go over as like 0.25ppg AHL players and are over 0.5ppg KHL players.

The KHL is at least watchable, the minor pro league in Russia is some of the worst hockey I've seen, let alone "professional hockey".

 

[MS]

I find it absolutely insane Ernie had to use the lockout year stats, when you look through the top 100 currently in the KHL and you have ex-Canucks: Granlund, Jensen, Shirokov, Schroeder, Spooner, Reid Boucher, Curtis Valk, and Vey.

8 former failed Vancouver Canucks are top 100 in the KHL scoring race.

In the next 100 we have Tryamkin, Goldobin, Leipsic, Pedan and Shinkaruk.

If anyone actually looks at some of the north american players who are successful in the KHL, guys go over as like 0.25ppg AHL players and are over 0.5ppg KHL players.

The KHL is at least watchable, the minor pro league in Russia is some of the worst hockey I've seen, let alone "professional hockey".

But some blogger used flawed numbers to generate an out-of-context NHL equivalency number! Surely that trumps all logic and common sense!

And yeah, using 12-13 numbers is just ... not the crux of a good argument.

Again, I understand that Russian players can be a bit of a mystery. But that Jokerit team filled ex-AHLers which is a dominant team in the KHL should be the Rosetta Stone for the level of competition we're looking at here. It basically looks like an old IHL squad, when that league was the landing space for good veteran minor-leaguers who had aged out of the AHL.

 

[F A N]

What exactly does that list (generated in a non-usual circumstance during an NHL lockout) mean about anything?

Niklas Jensen is a superstar in the KHL and scores at a 50 goal/82 GP pace there. Other ex-Canuck farmhands like Andrey Pedan, Curtis Valk, and Hunter Shinkaruk are quality players in that league. It isn't comparable to the NHL in any way. It isn't close. To try arguing this is ridiculous.

Like, sometimes it's hard to get a read on the Russian players because they're very unknown quantities. But there's a Finnish team in the KHL, and they're a powerhouse in that league - last year they finished 4th of 24 teams.

Jokerit Helsinki 2020-21 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

2 of the top 3 forwards on that team are Jordan Schroeder and Niklas Jensen, players this board should be pretty familiar with. The other is a tiny ex-Kings farmhand named Brian O'Neill who topped out at 50 points in the AHL. That is the forward core of one of the best teams in the KHL. It is absolute insanity to try claiming that a roster led by players like this is somehow even in the same stratosphere as even the worst NHL team. And that's an elite team at that level.

The NHL is the best hockey league in the world. I don't think anyone denies that. I also think that there are some players who lacks certain aspects in their games that prevent them from succeeding in the NHL mostly because they don't get the same time and space at the NHL level to do what they do best or they do not have well rounded 2 way games. Schroeder, Boucher, and Jensen are all star calibre players at the AHL level. Schroeder basically had the same offensive production moving from the AHL to NHL. Reid Boucher has one of the better shots even when compared to NHL players. Give him time and space and he will score goals.

So I don't think you can simply look at production and project how a player will do at the NHL level. Of course if you have the real superstars like Panarin then the chances are they would be good at the NHL level.

 

[MS]

The NHL is the best hockey league in the world. I don't think anyone denies that. I also think that there are some players who lacks certain aspects in their games that prevent them from succeeding in the NHL mostly because they don't get the same time and space at the NHL level to do what they do best or they do not have well rounded 2 way games. Schroeder, Boucher, and Jensen are all star calibre players at the AHL level. Schroeder basically had the same offensive production moving from the AHL to NHL. Reid Boucher has one of the better shots even when compared to NHL players. Give him time and space and he will score goals.

So I don't think you can simply look at production and project how a player will do at the NHL level. Of course if you have the real superstars like Panarin then the chances are they would be good at the NHL level.

Oh, of course there are players with standout traits who can excel at lower levels. But the KHL is really no different from the AHL in this regard.

The KHL is better than the AHL because it has more mature players, but it isn't better by a huge amount. The closest comparison to the current KHL is the old IHL of the 1990s which was filled with veteran minor-pro guys and former NHLers. And that league wasn't even close to the NHL, and neither is the KHL.

And there are a million reasons why those 'NHL equivalency' numbers are just a total waste of time.

 

[krutovsdonut]

khl is like junior with old school coaching. you have a place where smaller softer but talented guys can outcompete better nhl candidates, and where you have to see players in games to make sense of stats because there is a decent chance they are logjammed, doghoused, pipped by seniority, or just wasted in a lockstep coaching system.

i mean if i was coaching in the khl i'd play any of our blown draft picks over there over podkholzin. they're all experienced well trained veterans in their prime who have the ability to put up points in that league. why waste time developing a kid to do that who is leaving in a few months forever.

 

[Melvin]

@MS is completely correct about this and as someone who uses league contexts to try to pick amateurs I have tried making this same point multiple times in the past.

These figures are useful for comparing the strength of similar leagues (like the WHL vs the Q, the Allsvenskan vs the SHL, etc.) but in terms of "projecting" an "NHL equivalency" they are utterly worthless trash, and that is especially true of the KHL in particular.

You can cherry-pick this example or that example but really it comes down to an irredeemably flawed methodology which has already been discussed and leads to a very large sampling bias.

 

[I am toxic]

lol OK dude. maybe I was wrong about your quote, honestly don't care enough to go back and read the nonsense again.

Just gonna leave this here:
2012‑2013 KHL Scoring Leaders

Feel free to get the last word in or whatever.

Maybe you were wrong?

Don't care to go back and read what you were responding to?

And here I thought I am toxi . . . oh, wait, nevermind. Anyways, thanks for the last word.

 

[Ernie]

Maybe you were wrong?

Don't care to go back and read what you were responding to?

And here I thought I am toxi . . . oh, wait, nevermind. Anyways, thanks for the last word.

Nope

@MS is completely correct about this and as someone who uses league contexts to try to pick amateurs I have tried making this same point multiple times in the past.

These figures are useful for comparing the strength of similar leagues (like the WHL vs the Q, the Allsvenskan vs the SHL, etc.) but in terms of "projecting" an "NHL equivalency" they are utterly worthless trash, and that is especially true of the KHL in particular.

You can cherry-pick this example or that example but really it comes down to an irredeemably flawed methodology which has already been discussed and leads to a very large sampling bias.

wrong too

Pretty sure y'all are just hate watching the Canucks at this point.

 

[4Twenty]

Nope



wrong too

Pretty sure y'all are just hate watching the Canucks at this point.

All 3 are tell tale signs you lost the argument. Dude, you used an NHL lockout year as your representation of KHL stats. It was laughable and got treated as such.

Everyone who posts on this board wants Podkolzin to help the Canucks win a stanley cup, all of us, but some are little more based in reality. You keep going with those 2012/13 NHLe's.

Commenting on the ridiculousness of NHLe's has nothing to do with the Canucks, y'all just aren't interested in good faith discussion.

 

[MS]

khl is like junior with old school coaching. you have a place where smaller softer but talented guys can outcompete better nhl candidates, and where you have to see players in games to make sense of stats because there is a decent chance they are logjammed, doghoused, pipped by seniority, or just wasted in a lockstep coaching system.

i mean if i was coaching in the khl i'd play any of our blown draft picks over there over podkholzin. they're all experienced well trained veterans in their prime who have the ability to put up points in that league. why waste time developing a kid to do that who is leaving in a few months forever.

Well, yeah.

This whole argument started with claims that Podkolzin was 'ready now'. But if polished AHLers are better options and he would only be playing in the KHL to 'develop' ... then clearly he isn't ready now.

Any 'ready' NHL player would be playing regularly in the KHL because he would be an elite player at that level helping his team win games.

 

[Melvin]

Nope



wrong too

Pretty sure y'all are just hate watching the Canucks at this point.

Yikes...

This doesn't really have anything to do with the Canucks. I don't even know what thread we are in. (Oh, it's Pod. That makes sense.)

There are a million problems with using the data the way people are using it and I've had this exact conversation with @Bleach Clean a few times, as recently as last year and as far back as I don't know when. I can go into it if you want but it sounds like you're not really willing to listen.

Also, I'm 90% sure I was in the pro-Pod camp in those prior discussions, but don't actually remember.

 

[Melvin]

All 3 are tell tale signs you lost the argument. Dude, you used an NHL lockout year as your representation of KHL stats. It was laughable and got treated as such.

Everyone who posts on this board wants Podkolzin to help the Canucks win a stanley cup, all of us, but some are little more based in reality. You keep going with those 2012/13 NHLe's.

Commenting on the ridiculousness of NHLe's has nothing to do with the Canucks, y'all just aren't interested in good faith discussion.

I don't know man, his argument of "Wrong" was pretty compelling. I was nearly convinced.