Proposal: Varlamov to NYI

[seafoam]

NYI scouts have been reported at the Colorado-Winnipeg (11/11) game and the Colorado-Boston game (11/13), in which Varlamov started both games. The next time they play any of those three teams is December 20th. With Travis Hamonic playing tonight, I don't think NYI is looking for D, and both Colorado and NYI are looking for offense so a deal moving top six forwards doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The last possible scenario could be a swap of goaltenders in Varlamov and Halak. If Colorado feels Pickard is their goalie of the future (and want to protect him in the expansion draft), they'd probably want to move Varlamov instead of exposing him.

I think we could see something around Varlamov for Halak, Chimera, 2nd rounder in 2017, and potentially a conditional pick.

Under this deal, Colorado takes on 850K more in cap over the next two years, but is off the hook for 5.9M in cap in the 2018-2019 season. They get Chimera, who is admittedly being sent to Colorado for cap reasons, but gives Colorado another forward that they may feel can be a fit in their system. The pick(s) are the premium being paid for moving a goaltender can be regarded as better of the two. Now, Colorado can expose Halak in the expansion draft and protect Pickard more comfortably. If he gets selected they are off the hook for his salary. If not, he and Pickard can battle it out for 1A/1B for one more season which is where he is a better fit than a true #1.

Under this deal for NYI, they move the goaltender they have on the trade block, acquire a goaltender who has played more 57 or more games over the past three seasons, and has an extra year on his contract. This extra year could end up being crucial for NYI, who have Ilya Sorokin in their prospect pool and feel is their best prospect and the goaltender of the future, but is under contract in the KHL for two more years. Acquiring Varlamov is a security blanket in case things go south in getting Sorokin in North America, and if he does come over after two year, NYI can roll with Varlamov/Sorokin for one season while Sorokin gets accustomed to the NYI without the pressure of being a #1 goaltender. NYI moves or waives Berube now that they are more comfortable with Varlamov/Greiss.

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[SLAPSHOT723]

I just don't see how Varlamov could help us, like at all. Acquiring him would still create a three-headed goalie monster, plus it adds cap, and we should use assets for other areas of need. They're not going to waive Berube. It's more to do with their infatuation for him over their worry of Halak's injury proneness.

I get what you're saying about the extra year, which I actually think is a good point, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it. We can sign Eddie Lack, Antti Niemi, or Kari Lehtonen; or re-sign Greiss to play with Sorokin.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

As an Avs fan I appreciate you actually doing research and taking the team's needs into consideration.

In saying that I don't see any reason for Colorado to do this deal. They're moving a top 10 goaltender and they don't even get any cap relief? If the only plus added to downgrading from Varlamov to Halak while taking on Chimera is a 2nd round pick Colorado would be better off holding onto him and getting at least one more solid season out of him before losing him in expansion or trading him just before expansion to a desperate team who is able to take him on since cap space is more flexible in the offseason.

The idea is good, but the value isn't nearly enough for Colorado to trade Varlamov.

 

[seafoam]

I just don't see how Varlamov could help us, like at all. Acquiring him would still create a three-headed goalie monster, plus it adds cap, and we should use assets for other areas of need. They're not going to waive Berube. It's more to do with their infatuation for him over their worry of Halak's injury proneness.

I get what you're saying about the extra year, which I actually think is a good point, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it. We can sign Eddie Lack, Antti Niemi, or Kari Lehtonen; or re-sign Greiss to play with Sorokin.

That said, the Islanders feel one of the reasons they need three good ones is Halak never seems to be 100 per cent.

Elliotte Friedman wrote this in his 30 thoughts a few weeks ago. I think Halak's injury proneness is actually the reason Berube is still around. All the goalies you mentioned are Chad Johnson level.

 

[seafoam]

As an Avs fan I appreciate you actually doing research and taking the team's needs into consideration.

In saying that I don't see any reason for Colorado to do this deal. They're moving a top 10 goaltender and they don't even get any cap relief? If the only plus added to downgrading from Varlamov to Halak while taking on Chimera is a 2nd round pick Colorado would be better off holding onto him and getting at least one more solid season out of him before losing him in expansion or trading him just before expansion to a desperate team who is able to take him on since cap space is more flexible in the offseason.

The idea is good, but the value isn't nearly enough for Colorado to trade Varlamov.

NYI cap LTIR Grabovski and keep Chimera, giving Colorado cap space. That's not a major part of the deal. In addition, I mentioned a conditional pick, such as the 2nd becoming a 1st depending on NYI finishes out the season. I don't know if that changes how you view the proposal or not.

I understand your reasoning for wanting to keep Varlamov, just seems weird that NYI has scouted Colorado the past two games.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Isles have some young forward prospects, I'd look there for a return. Colorado has got to get depth in their org, and not the washed up or mediocre vet variety. We have that in spades already. We need youth who can come in and contribute sooner than later.

 

[entropism]

Seafoam, definitely makes sense for us, gives us a reason to lose Berube too, as you mentioned. I just don't see the incentive for Colorado.

 

[seafoam]

Isles have some young forward prospects, I'd look there for a return. Colorado has got to get depth in their org, and not the washed up or mediocre vet variety. We have that in spades already. We need youth who can come in and contribute sooner than later.

Makes sense, I'm just not sure if NYI would give up a Dal Colle or Ho-Sang for a goaltender. They need youth who can contribute as well.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

I think the value gap between Halak and Varlamov is more than a 2nd. The conditional pick might have to be removed and change the 2nd to a 1st. Maybe a conditional pick going back to NYI based on how many games Halak plays or if he gets taken in the expansion draft

 

[seafoam]

Seafoam, definitely makes sense for us, gives us a reason to lose Berube too, as you mentioned. I just don't see the incentive for Colorado.

Appreciate the feedback.

 

[seafoam]

I think the value gap between Halak and Varlamov is more than a 2nd. The conditional pick might have to be removed and change the 2nd to a 1st. Maybe a conditional pick going back to NYI based on how many games Halak plays or if he gets taken in the expansion draft

I did #suggest that!

 

[Mike Jones]

It's interesting that Islanders' scouts were at both Avs games. Could they be looking at someone beyond Varlamov? Who would have their interest?

 

[AvsGuy]

In saying that I don't see any reason for Colorado to do this deal. They're moving a top 10 goaltender and they don't even get any cap relief?

Varlamov is still top 10 somewhere in our dreams bud

 

[Ivan13]

It's interesting that Islanders' scouts were at both Avs games. Could they be looking at someone beyond Varlamov? Who would have their interest?

They would be looking at forwards which is something Avs lack as well. The only possibility is Soderberg IMHO, he doesn't seem to fit with Bednar - it's still early though - so they could move him for another forward of his caliber just to shake things up. But that is highly unlikely.

 

[Chardo]

I think the Islanders are trying to get away from big long term contracts for goalies. Swapping Halak for Varlamov only makes that situation worse.

 

[JoemAvs]

NYI scouts have been reported at the Colorado-Winnipeg (11/11) game and the Colorado-Boston game (11/13), in which Varlamov started both games. The next time they play any of those three teams is December 20th. With Travis Hamonic playing tonight, I don't think NYI is looking for D, and both Colorado and NYI are looking for offense so a deal moving top six forwards doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The last possible scenario could be a swap of goaltenders in Varlamov and Halak. If Colorado feels Pickard is their goalie of the future (and want to protect him in the expansion draft), they'd probably want to move Varlamov instead of exposing him.

I think we could see something around Varlamov for Halak, Chimera, 2nd rounder in 2017, and potentially a conditional pick.

Under this deal, Colorado takes on 850K more in cap over the next two years, but is off the hook for 5.9M in cap in the 2018-2019 season. They get Chimera, who is admittedly being sent to Colorado for cap reasons, but gives Colorado another forward that they may feel can be a fit in their system. The pick(s) are the premium being paid for moving a goaltender can be regarded as better of the two. Now, Colorado can expose Halak in the expansion draft and protect Pickard more comfortably. If he gets selected they are off the hook for his salary. If not, he and Pickard can battle it out for 1A/1B for one more season which is where he is a better fit than a true #1.

Under this deal for NYI, they move the goaltender they have on the trade block, acquire a goaltender who has played more 57 or more games over the past three seasons, and has an extra year on his contract. This extra year could end up being crucial for NYI, who have Ilya Sorokin in their prospect pool and feel is their best prospect and the goaltender of the future, but is under contract in the KHL for two more years. Acquiring Varlamov is a security blanket in case things go south in getting Sorokin in North America, and if he does come over after two year, NYI can roll with Varlamov/Sorokin for one season while Sorokin gets accustomed to the NYI without the pressure of being a #1 goaltender. NYI moves or waives Berube now that they are more comfortable with Varlamov/Greiss.

Huge problem with that one.
Opportunity cost.

If the Avs decide to go with Pickard over Varlamov and LV picks Varlamov the Avs benefit in the following ways:

-They won't lose another halfway decent piece in Soderberg (although he has been really bad this year but who hasn't on the Avs so he should hold atleast a bit of value) or Grigorenko
-It would free up 5.9M in capspace for next year (not that we need it but still could be valuable in a Coyotes cap dump scenario to some other team)



You are basically offering a conditional 2nd for taking on 7M of deadweight to the Avs (Avs could get a cheaper backup for Pickard) and losing Grigorenko/ Soderberg while you get a huge upgrade in goal.

I just think that is not nearly enough. It should require one of your recent 1st round forwards.

For the Avs to pull the trigger IMO it would have to atleast include one of your top prospects. Dal Colle / Barzal / Beauvillier or Pulock would have to be included for it to make sense.

Or atleast an unprotected 1st and No Chimera for starters.

 

[seafoam]

Huge problem with that one.
Opportunity cost.

If the Avs decide to go with Pickard over Varlamov and LV picks Varlamov the Avs benefit in the following ways:

-They won't lose another halfway decent piece in Soderberg (although he has been really bad this year but who hasn't on the Avs so he should hold atleast a bit of value) or Grigorenko
-It would free up 5.9M in capspace for next year (not that we need it but still could be valuable in a Coyotes cap dump scenario to some other team)



You are basically offering a conditional 2nd for taking on 7M of deadweight to the Avs (Avs could get a cheaper backup for Pickard) and Grigorenko/ Soderberg while you get a huge upgrade in goal.

I just think that is not nearly enough. It should require one of your recent 1st round forwards.

For the Avs to pull the trigger IMO it would have to atleast include one of your top prospects. Dal Colle / Barzal / Beauvillier or Pulock would have to be included for it to make sense.

Or atleast an unprotected 1st and No Chimera for starters.

Okay thanks for the feedback. I personally didn't think the gap between Varlamov and Halak was as big as it apparently is.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not really sure why the Avs would do this.

A 2nd round pick isn't much incentive for us to move a goalie like Varlamov.


And if we kept Pickard and loss Varlamov to the expansion draft I'm pretty sure the 5.9M in freed up cap space is more valuable then a 2nd round pick that we'd be getting in this deal.


Avs say no, offer needs to be improved for us to take on that salary going forward.

 

[seafoam]

Not really sure why the Avs would do this.

A 2nd round pick isn't much incentive for us to move a goalie like Varlamov.


And if we kept Pickard and loss Varlamov to the expansion draft I'm pretty sure the 5.9M in freed up cap space is more valuable then a 2nd round pick that we'd be getting in this deal.


Avs say no, offer needs to be improved for us to take on that salary going forward.

I see that now, thank you for the feedback.

Would a conditional 1st and no Chimera change anything?

 

[Chardo]

I see that now, thank you for the feedback.

Would a conditional 1st and no Chimera change anything?

So you want the Islanders to trade a 1st for a small upgrade at a position of depth?

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

If Snow is looking at moving a cheaper Halak, Then i'm not sure why he would be interested in a more expensive Varlamov it's not like the Islanders are in a win now mode any ways.

 

[JoemAvs]

Okay thanks for the feedback. I personally didn't think the gap between Varlamov and Halak was as big as it apparently is.

I am not a huge fan of Halak so that may sway things.

Varlamov can be a top5 goalie in this league if he really gets going.

But the years of sucking and mediocrity behind one of the worst defenses in the league have worn him down a bit mentally IMO. He had to bail this team out so much over the years that it is not really funny and it has left its mark IMO.

There have been consistency issues with him. He still makes those 4 great and unbelievable saves only to let in a weak one (which he did not do as much earlier on in his Avs career) or two in quick succession.

Right now he is not a top10 goalie in this league.
But I could easily see him bounce back. There is no real reason why he should not. The talent is certainly still there even though the results have not recently.

I really think he is one of the guys that could benefit the most from a change of -scenario.

So I wouldn't let him go unless the Avs get atleast something solid out of it.

Especially when you consider what the Avs gave up for him in the first place.
Trading for him in hindsight (and IMO even at that time) was a huge mistake because that pick for the Avs could probably have been Hampus Lindholm, Rielly or Trouba (or Yakupov...) and prematurely ended a rebuild that was nowhere near finished.

So it would have to be something good for me to consider giving him up right now expansion draft or not.

 

[entropism]

So you want the Islanders to trade a 1st for a small upgrade at a position of depth?

No, look at the bigger picture. It allows the Isles to waive Berube (or trade him) and get rid of the 3 headed goalie monster, without worrying that your #1 goalie is injured for half the year, almost every year. It's the main reason they're keeping Berube around, unles Snow has gone off the deep end. (Which is quite possible after this summer)

In his limited starts this year, Greiss has not looked as good as last year. So riding him as the #1 would probably be a poor choice, especially so early into the season. Varly gives the isles options.

 

[Chardo]

No, look at the bigger picture. It allows the Isles to waive Berube (or trade him) and get rid of the 3 headed goalie monster, without worrying that your #1 goalie is injured for half the year, almost every year. It's the main reason they're keeping Berube around, unles Snow has gone off the deep end. (Which is quite possible after this summer)

In his limited starts this year, Greiss has not looked as good as last year. So riding him as the #1 would probably be a poor choice, especially so early into the season. Varly gives the isles options.

But that's still not worth a 1st.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If the Avalanche trade Varlamov to the Islanders I do not think they'd want Halak back. They'd probably want one of the Islanders younger NHL forwards. Forward depth is a big weakness for Colorado. Colorado would have to take back one of the Islanders goalies not named Halak.

Varlamov is having a rough start to his season, but that's a small sample size, and he's shown in the past that he can (inconsistently) play at an elite level. If he benefits from a change of scenery, getting him for something like (Young NHL Forward)+2nd+Greiss could be a steal for the Islanders.