Confirmed with Link: [VAN/VGK] Canucks acquire F Brendan Leipsic for D Philip Holm

[Canucks1096]

The chances are lower because the player already hasn't become an impact player on their draft team. What about that don't you get? You've already had one team give up on them. They've already washed out of somewhere. That makes it a lot less likely they become impact players. Seriously, how many times has that worked out here? C'mon, man. Has the total lack of impact players acquired that way register at all with you?

You are giving me your personal opinion. You still didn't prove to me that it's a lower chance. Do all future impact nhl player become impact players in there early 20s. The answer is No. Does all draft pick from 2nd to 7th become impact nhl player. The answer is No. There is absolutely no way you give 100% accurate data that clearly shows drafting outside of 1st round has a higher chance to become an impact player.

So how many times had a player that got drafted outside of the 1st worked out here and made any type of impact. I will help you. The last player was Edler and that was 13 years ago

 

[CanaFan]

You are giving me your personal opinion. You still didn't prove to me that it's a lower chance. Do all future impact nhl player become impact players in there early 20s. The answer is No. Does all draft pick from 2nd to 7th become impact nhl player. The answer is No. There is absolutely no way you give 100% accurate data that clearly shows drafting outside of 1st round has a higher chance to become an impact player.

So how many times had a player that got drafted outside of the 1st worked out here and made any type of impact. I will help you. The last player was Edler and that was 13 years ago

Mason Raymond??
Ben Hutton??
Nikita Tryamkin??

Also it’s well established that Vancouver has one of the worst drafting records over that time, well below league average. Why use our abysmal record as the baseline rather than a league average?

 

[CanaFan]

As of right now 2nd round pick to 7th round pick from 2014 to 2017 you don't have 1 regular that's playing in the nhl right now. Forsling has been sent down to AHL this year a few times. Tryamkin is in Russia but if stay he would played here so I will give you one. So not sure where you argument is. You can't use players that didn't even play nhl games yet as an argument. Who knows how those prospects will work out.

You do realize 2014-2017 is quite recent when discussing late round picks right? How many *should* be in the NHL by now considering these are 18-21 year olds drafted late?

You acknowledge Tryamkin. Forsling has some games. Gaudette may play in the next few days.

Plus, again, there are other teams
you can use to identify success rates around the league, not just Vancouver.

 

[Canucks1096]

Uhmm, no. There’s a TON of difference. Jake Virtanen is 21. Do you think he has the same “upside” as he had when he was 17 and entering the 2014 draft? Do you think he would go anywhere near #6 in a redraft today? If you say “no”, please explain why if you believe there is almost no difference between the upside of a 17 year old vs a 21 year old.




But in those % there is a chance (albeit small) that those players can be *top end* players as well. There is practically no chance these 21-23 year old discards have the same upside. They’ve been evaluated by their former teams and judged to be disposable. What then is the point of trading for them? To get a warm body? Warm bodies are plentiful and not worth giving up picks for.




Exactly. Considering we got Gaudette in the 5th and Tryamkin in the 3rd, I don’t think we should be dismissing the potential to find *valuable* players with later picks. That entire list above combined is not worth Nikita Tryamkin’s value to an NHL club.

To be honest I was never high on Virtanen since day 1. His upside to me was 3rd line when he was drafted and now. Actually a lot people do think he has the same upside. In the Virtanen thread you have people still think he can be a power forward. You have many people saying he is only 21. He takes time to develope. Many user don't want him traded. So the question become our struggling young players has upside and other team struggling players don't have upside.

So we don't want to trade picks for struggling young players. But I am pretty sure most fans don't want trade Virtanen for 2nd round pick. So if 2nd round pick so valuable. How come many people don't want Virtanen traded?

Read my message above. I proved you wrong with those 8 players examples.

When all those Baertschi AND Grandlund trade made. Did you hate all of them or you liked some of them. Because if You actually liked some of them. That means you think the player has upside. Then our argument is a pointless.. Everyone that debating against me. It is really hard for me believe that you guys hated all those trades from day 1. Go back and read some of those threads it was 50/50 people like and hate those trades.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

You are giving me your personal opinion. You still didn't prove to me that it's a lower chance. Do all future impact nhl player become impact players in there early 20s. The answer is No. Does all draft pick from 2nd to 7th become impact nhl player. The answer is No. There is absolutely no way you give 100% accurate data that clearly shows drafting outside of 1st round has a higher chance to become an impact player.

So how many times had a player that got drafted outside of the 1st worked out here and made any type of impact. I will help you. The last player was Edler and that was 13 years ago

Of bloody course I can't give you 100% accurate data on picks that have yet to hit the league. But I can tell you how many times Benning traded draft picks for older prospects who became impact players here: zero. It doesn't get lower than zero, buddy. Or maybe you think Granlund is just on the cusp of breaking out? The Canucks have cumulatively the worst record over the last three seasons. It can't score. It can't skate. It can't defend. I mean, seriously. You were just moaning about how Benning had nothing of value to trade at the TDL. Where do you think all that nothing came from?

And seriously, there are actually other NHL teams, you know. Canafan just told you, but it bears repeating: just because the Canucks have been traditionally awful at drafting and developing talent doesn't invalidate drafting and developing. What, do you really think no good players have been drafted and turned out well since f***ing Edler? Really? Uh, yeah. Other teams are a thing.

I have no idea how anyone can look at the team's record on or off the ice over the last four years and still think Benning knows what he's doing.

 

[CanaFan]

To be honest I was never high on Virtanen since day 1. His upside to me was 3rd line when he was drafted and now. Actually a lot people do think he has the same upside. In the Virtanen thread you have people still think he can be a power forward. You have many people saying he is only 21. He takes time to develope. Many user don't want him traded. So the question become our struggling young players has upside and other team struggling players don't have upside.

So we don't want to trade picks for struggling young players. But I am pretty sure most fans don't want trade Virtanen for 2nd round pick. So if 2nd round pick so valuable. How come many people don't want Virtanen traded?

Read my message above. I proved you wrong with those 8 players examples.

When all those Baertschi AND Grandlund trade made. Did you hate all of them or you liked some of them. Because if You actually liked some of them. That means you think the player has upside. Then our argument is a pointless.. Everyone that debating against me. It is really hard for me believe that you guys hated all those trades from day 1. Go back and read some of those threads it was 50/50 people like and hate those trades.

I hated every one of those trades except the Baertschi one and I was neutral on the Vey one. Part of my acceptance was due to the fact that we hadn’t yet seen all of those deals fail. Using the information we’ve gathered from those trades I’m now more strongly against them in principal.

And I disagree that no one would trade Virtanen for a 2nd round pick. Some definitely would, some wouldn’t. But you can’t appeal to popular opinion to “prove” a point. ProstheticConscience has the right of it. You need to evaluate the data points and weigh them against each other. In this case the Benning reclamation project side has zero wins - maybe 1 marginal one in Baertschi - which isn’t a difficult bar to exceed.

And I’ll repeat my earlier question to you. Would you trade our 2018 2nd for Curtis Lazar? Certain NHLer with some upside (apparently) for a 20-30% lottery ticket?

Yes? No?

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Also, we should probably just move this to the Mismanagement thread. Slightly OT here.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

I hated every one of those trades except the Baertschi one and I was neutral on the Vey one. Part of my acceptance was due to the fact that we hadn’t yet seen all of those deals fail. Using the information we’ve gathered from those trades I’m now more strongly against them in principal.

And I disagree that no one would trade Virtanen for a 2nd round pick. Some definitely would, some wouldn’t. But you can’t appeal to popular opinion to “prove” a point. ProstheticConscience has the right of it. You need to evaluate the data points and weigh them against each other. In this case the Benning reclamation project side has zero wins - maybe 1 marginal one in Baertschi - which isn’t a difficult bar to exceed.

And I’ll repeat my earlier question to you. Would you trade our 2018 2nd for Curtis Lazar? Certain NHLer with some upside (apparently) for a 20-30% lottery ticket?

Yes? No?

Bart I don't really think belongs in the usual Benning dumpster-dive category. He still had promise on the Flames, he just had a contract beef and then had a spat with Burkie. He wasn't one of the forgotten prospects Benning usually targets.

But if freaking Baertschi qualifies as Benning's big success using the strategy of targeting older prospects to shave years off the drafting and developing process...then it's just kind of a failure as a team building method.

*edit* And seriously, who gives a shit who liked the Baertschi and Granlund deals at the time? It's not as if we can't look back at how they worked out.

 

[Canucks1096]

I hated every one of those trades except the Baertschi one and I was neutral on the Vey one. Part of my acceptance was due to the fact that we hadn’t yet seen all of those deals fail. Using the information we’ve gathered from those trades I’m now more strongly against them in principal.

And I disagree that no one would trade Virtanen for a 2nd round pick. Some definitely would, some wouldn’t. But you can’t appeal to popular opinion to “prove” a point. ProstheticConscience has the right of it. You need to evaluate the data points and weigh them against each other. In this case the Benning reclamation project side has zero wins - maybe 1 marginal one in Baertschi - which isn’t a difficult bar to exceed.

And I’ll repeat my earlier question to you. Would you trade our 2018 2nd for Curtis Lazar? Certain NHLer with some upside (apparently) for a 20-30% lottery ticket?

Yes? No?

No because I don't think he has any upside at all. If we didn't have Kassian. I would trade a 2nd round pick for Kassian. The 20 to 30% is a chance they will become a nhl player. But to get a top 6 F or top 4 d. I don't have the exact percentage but my guess probably no more than 10%. There is no possible way for any of you to actually determine those casts off don't have 10% chance to become a top 6 F or top 4 D.

So previous message those 8 players I listed that team gave up on them or almost gave on them. Would you trade a 2nd round pick to any one of those players?

I didn't say all of them will trade Virtanen. I said most of them. Sure I can if you actually go to the Virtanen thread. It is obvious there more Virtanen lovers than haters. Most will not trade Virtanen for 2nd pick. It seem like double standard to me.

So you are asking me to look at other team draft record. So why don't you look at other teams when they stole a young player a way from another team?

 

[CanaFan]

No because I don't think he has any upside at all.

But you think guys like Vey, Clendenning, Motte, Pouliot, etc who couldn't even crack an NHL line up (outside of ours) do / did? Why on earth would you think a bunch of failed NHLers have upside while an actual NHLer like Lazar doesn't? Hell, you use the exact same type of player (Virtanen) in your argument below.

If we didn't have Kassian. I would trade a 2nd round pick for Kassian. The 20 to 30% is a chance they will become a nhl player. But to get a top 6 F or top 4 d. I don't have the exact percentage but my guess probably no more than 10%. There is no possible way for any of you to actually determine those casts off don't have 10% chance to become a top 6 F or top 4 D.

Sure there is. We can look at examples of cast offs and see how they've turned out, exactly in the same manner the success rates of draft picks have been calculated by round. Using the list of Benning's 10 reclamation projects - Vey, Pedan, Clendenning, Baertschi, Granlund, Etem, Goldobin, Pouliot, Motte, and Liepsic - I would say 0 have become *good* top 6 forwards or top 4 D. I'd accept an argument for Baertschi being a low end top 6 forward on a non-playoff team, but not highly valued one. So far that's 0%. If you'd like to do the legwork and expand the list to other teams, I'd be interested in seeing the results too.

So previous message those 8 players I listed that team gave up on them or almost gave on them. Would you trade a 2nd round pick to any one of those players?

I don't understand some of your list. No team ever gave up on Shane Doan or Jason Pommonville. Palmeri was an NHLer, not a reclamation project (i.e. an AHLer struggling to make the NHL). Moulson, Beauchemin, and MSL fit the bill. Goalies are a different conversation.

I can provide an even longer list of impact players who have been drafted in the 2nd round if you'd like to base this argument on anecdotal evidence.

I didn't say all of them will trade Virtanen. I said most of them. Sure I can if you actually go to the Virtanen thread. It is obvious there more Virtanen lovers than haters. Most will not trade Virtanen for 2nd pick. It seem like double standard to me.

I don't see a double standard. First of all Virtanen is a 6th pick and therefore fans here are probably unwilling to lock in their loss by trading him away. No different than the psychology that causes people to hang onto poor performing stocks for too long. Others still see him as a useful energy player even if he doesn't become a scorer. Again, not really fitting the type of AHL-tweener that Benning has targeted with most of his trades. But if you want to have this answered, go to the main boards and ask fans of other teams if they'd like to give up a 2nd pick for Virtanen. I bet you its much more in favour of "no" than it is on our board as they don't have the fan attachment to Virtanen that we do.

So you are asking me to look at other team draft record. So why don't you look at other teams when they stole a young player a way from another team?

I have. It simply isn't very long.

 

[Canucks1096]

But you think guys like Vey, Clendenning, Motte, Pouliot, etc who couldn't even crack an NHL line up (outside of ours) do / did? Why on earth would you think a bunch of failed NHLers have upside while an actual NHLer like Lazar doesn't? Hell, you use the exact same type of player (Virtanen) in your argument below.



Sure there is. We can look at examples of cast offs and see how they've turned out, exactly in the same manner the success rates of draft picks have been calculated by round. Using the list of Benning's 10 reclamation projects - Vey, Pedan, Clendenning, Baertschi, Granlund, Etem, Goldobin, Pouliot, Motte, and Liepsic - I would say 0 have become *good* top 6 forwards or top 4 D. I'd accept an argument for Baertschi being a low end top 6 forward on a non-playoff team, but not highly valued one. So far that's 0%. If you'd like to do the legwork and expand the list to other teams, I'd be interested in seeing the results too.



I don't understand some of your list. No team ever gave up on Shane Doan or Jason Pommonville. Palmeri was an NHLer, not a reclamation project (i.e. an AHLer struggling to make the NHL). Moulson, Beauchemin, and MSL fit the bill. Goalies are a different conversation.

I can provide an even longer list of impact players who have been drafted in the 2nd round if you'd like to base this argument on anecdotal evidence.



I don't see a double standard. First of all Virtanen is a 6th pick and therefore fans here are probably unwilling to lock in their loss by trading him away. No different than the psychology that causes people to hang onto poor performing stocks for too long. Others still see him as a useful energy player even if he doesn't become a scorer. Again, not really fitting the type of AHL-tweener that Benning has targeted with most of his trades. But if you want to have this answered, go to the main boards and ask fans of other teams if they'd like to give up a 2nd pick for Virtanen. I bet you its much more in favour of "no" than it is on our board as they don't have the fan attachment to Virtanen that we do.



I have. It simply isn't very long.

Lazar has given lots chance by failed. Clendening, Vey, Pouliot all weren't given much of a chance by there because those teams they played for were to busy winning cups.

Okay but your at 0% as well. None of Benning picks from 2nd to 7th are top 6 forwards and top 4 D yet. So is it fair for me to say as of right now it's a tie?

Jason Pominville was put waivers. Buf gave up on him but nobody claim him. They had injuries and called him up. The rest is history.

There lot rumour back in the late 90s and Doan almost got traded. Pho almost gave up on him but a struggling player in there early 20s turned his career around.

Yes you can provide a longer list but you can also provide longer list about players that got drafted and didn't become impact players

How are we going to measure a casts off? Do we will include a player like Alexander Grenier. Is he really a castoffs if he has no upside before. I don't think he has up but may you do. A cup team trading a prospect a way for a roster player. Is that prospect considered a castoffs? If you can think of good way to measure it. Let me know


I am think of looking at the draft after the lockout. Maybe 2006 to about 2014. Those 9 drafts tell me all players that became top 6 F and top 4 D from round 2 to 7. Divided 180 players and tell me the percentage for each year and do an average for those 9 years.

My guess it's only 5 to 10%. If we.do find a way measure a castoffs. Every 1 out of 10 trades that thst become top 6/top 4 D. That means you lost this argument.

 

[Melvin]

I would happily trade baertschi straight up for Anderson.

Or for a second rounder for that matter

 

[timw33]

I would happily trade baertschi straight up for Anderson.

Or for a second rounder for that matter

Yep. Baertschi is a spare part for us and not a guy you should have in your top-6 if you have actual depth.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Yep. Baertschi is a spare part for us and not a guy you should have in your top-6 if you have actual depth.

I think the consensus here is selling Baertschi short. He hasn't peaked yet. He's at least a 50 point player (barring injury) in his prime, maybe more.

I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd round pick - he's pretty much the type of player you realistically hope you get with that pick.

 

[Cancuks]

Baertschi has peaked and he'll never be any better than he is now. He should be traded or re-signed to a 1 year deal and then traded at next years deadline as a pending UFA. Anything else is unacceptable IMO.

 

[me2]

I think the consensus here is selling Baertschi short. He hasn't peaked yet. He's at least a 50 point player (barring injury) in his prime, maybe more.

I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd round pick - he's pretty much the type of player you realistically hope you get with that pick.

He's 25, he's 26 in October. This is his prime.

 

[CanaFan]

Lazar has given lots chance by failed. Clendening, Vey, Pouliot all weren't given much of a chance by there because those teams they played for were to busy winning cups.

Okay but your at 0% as well. None of Benning picks from 2nd to 7th are top 6 forwards and top 4 D yet. So is it fair for me to say as of right now it's a tie?

Jason Pominville was put waivers. Buf gave up on him but nobody claim him. They had injuries and called him up. The rest is history.

There lot rumour back in the late 90s and Doan almost got traded. Pho almost gave up on him but a struggling player in there early 20s turned his career around.

Yes you can provide a longer list but you can also provide longer list about players that got drafted and didn't become impact players

How are we going to measure a casts off? Do we will include a player like Alexander Grenier. Is he really a castoffs if he has no upside before. I don't think he has up but may you do. A cup team trading a prospect a way for a roster player. Is that prospect considered a castoffs? If you can think of good way to measure it. Let me know


I am think of looking at the draft after the lockout. Maybe 2006 to about 2014. Those 9 drafts tell me all players that became top 6 F and top 4 D from round 2 to 7. Divided 180 players and tell me the percentage for each year and do an average for those 9 years.

My guess it's only 5 to 10%. If we.do find a way measure a castoffs. Every 1 out of 10 trades that thst become top 6/top 4 D. That means you lost this argument.

Doesn’t the fact that you’re stretching back to the late 90’s and early 2000’s for your handful of examples tell you something about the rarity of these “cast offs” that turn into impact players? Including rumours about a guy who was on the block but never actually traded? Like these are not frequent events. How many players are waived all the time who never become a Jason Pominville or merely top out as a Curtis Lazar? It’s nearly uncountable.

And you’re inventing rationales for why Vey, Clendenning, and Pouliot didn’t make their clubs. Cup winning teams add young players all the time. Good ones at least. The financial pressures of winning cups has forced the Blackhawks to jettison vets and add youth multiple times. If Clendenning was any good he’d have been gold to the Hawks. And hindsight confirms Vey, Clendenning, and Pouliot weren’t good players that couldn’t crack a good rosters. They were/are poor players that simply weren’t good enough and weren’t worth acquiring in the first place.

Again, look at the evidence of this strategy under Benning. 10 players, 9 duds. 1 ok player.

Now let’s compare how Benning’s non-1st round draft picks do in the next year. Between Tryamkin, Gaudette, Demko, Lind, Lockwood, Gadjovich, and Forsling I’m willing to bet we find at least 1 impact player (top 6 F / top 4 D). Like I say, it’s not a high bar to exceed.

 

[CanaFan]

I think the consensus here is selling Baertschi short. He hasn't peaked yet. He's at least a 50 point player (barring injury) in his prime, maybe more.

I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd round pick - he's pretty much the type of player you realistically hope you get with that pick.

Except you can’t “bar injury” with Baertschi as he’s been quite injury prone in his time here. He is what he is. A sub-70 game soft player with some inconsistent skill who is good for 35-45 points when he plays with your best players.

Hardly what you’re *hoping* to get in the 2nd round.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I think the consensus here is selling Baertschi short. He hasn't peaked yet. He's at least a 50 point player (barring injury) in his prime, maybe more.

I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd round pick - he's pretty much the type of player you realistically hope you get with that pick.

He'll be 26 at the start of next season, and his points/82 career best is 45. Suggesting he's "at least a 50 point player in his prime, maybe more" is just wrong. Barring injury he's a 40 point player. He's in his prime right now. People like to act like he's a young kid, but he'll be 26 the next time he plays a regular season game...he's not a young kid. He is what he is.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Lol @ saying he's peaked when we've just watched the Sedins peak in their 30s and Kesler peak late as well.

Baertschi doesn't play a crash and bang style. To say he's already peaked is premature. He can be the BMo to the Horvat and Boeser line for all I care, he's still going to be a beneficiary and likely hit 50.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Except you can’t “bar injury” with Baertschi as he’s been quite injury prone in his time here. He is what he is. A sub-70 game soft player with some inconsistent skill who is good for 35-45 points when he plays with your best players.

Hardly what you’re *hoping* to get in the 2nd round.

I'm currently too inebriated, but later I'll crunch the numbers for what 2nd rounders generally pan out to be in the NHL such as % of sticking around past 200 games or so. I think it will be low. Canucks gave up a late-ish pick as well.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Blah blah blah a mountain of complete bull shit.

Sorry, what?

HOW many players has Benning rescued from the garbage can and made into good NHLers? What's that? Oh, none? Right. That's what I thought.

Clendening's been given a chance by 5 NHL teams now. Vey? Where's he? Oh yeah, nowhere. Pouliot...oh yeah. He's terrible, just like Pens fans said.

"Oh, if we do find a way to measure castoffs...!" Yeah, we have. It's called let Benning trade a few draft picks for them and watch the Canucks lose lots and lots of games.

Pfffffffffffffffffffffffffft. Why am I bothering. Enjoy the losing.

 

[Melvin]

I think the consensus here is selling Baertschi short. He hasn't peaked yet. He's at least a 50 point player (barring injury) in his prime, maybe more.

I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd round pick - he's pretty much the type of player you realistically hope you get with that pick.

Getting a player like Baertschi with a second round pick might be a pretty good result but it is not even close to what you "hope" for. But it's so weird to me that people keep making these sorts of pick/player comparative statements that completely lack a temporal dimension.

By trading him for a pick you reset the clock and give yourself an outside shot at drafting an elite talent, which is always what the hope is. I trade him for a 2nd in a heartbeat. Hell, I would trade him for pretty much anyone drafted in last year's second round, except for the goalie.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

I'm currently too inebriated, but later I'll crunch the numbers for what 2nd rounders generally pan out to be in the NHL such as % of sticking around past 200 games or so. I think it will be low. Canucks gave up a late-ish pick as well.

Yeah, you go ahead and crunch those numbers. You'll still be missing the point.

Lucic was drafted where...?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Lottery ticket with not great odds vs 50 point player.