Raptors Discussion: v89| Those are some big rings | Raptors out to defend their championship

[trellaine201]

What does the stats -20 mean for a player? Is it a valuable stat?

 

[The Nemesis]

What does the stats -20 mean for a player? Is it a valuable stat?

I don't know specifically what you're looking at, but I'm going to guess it's +/-, which is a simple point differential and basically works just like the hockey stat. A player gets a + for every point scored with him on the floor and a - for every opposition point scored while on the floor. So -20 would mean that while the player was on the court, the opposition scored 20 more points than his team did.

It's basically just like hockey +/- in terms of value too: useful to a degree, but largely depends on context and nuance that the number itself lacks. A guy who puts up 20-30 points but is a minus player would suggest that the guy is potentially a defensive liability. But it doesn't account for things like the strength of the opposition or quality of teammates to give grounding to the number. For example, from the Charlotte game, Marc Gasol was +26, the 3rd highest mark on the team for that game (as you'd expect in a blowout, there were a lot of positive players. Only Oshae Brissett was a minus player, but it was just -2 and he only played 5 minutes of garbage time). But there are factors to consider in Gasol's #:

1) He played 29 minutes. This was more court time than everyone on the roster besides Siakam and Fred VanVleet. So he had more time to rack up those +s

2) He had just 5 points, so he didn't personally tilt his scales that much. But he also had 9 assists, which suggests that he did get some boost from making plays for teammates. There's also the potential that his positive value was inflated by playing solid defensively and negating opposition points. The fact is we just can't tell from the box score. Just like we can't tell, for example, how much of the minus side of the ledger might no be his fault. If he's under the basket on offence and a guard commits a turnover, there's no way he's getting back to provide any defence against the opposing fast break. But he'll get a minus just the same if they score even if he never had a hope of altering any aspect of that play.

3) He likely played much of his time with the starters (ie better players) and that would contribute to his positive momentum in the +/- column. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was +11 in 20 minutes, but his time on the court would've been with a lot of the bench guys, which means that he would've probably not has the same opportunity to get positive differential as someone like Gasol would, even though he scored 15 points to Gasol's 5. This also ties back to point #2 in that we can't tell where his impact came from either.

I feel like it's best use is probably as something to point you in the right direction in terms of asking questions or looking at other stats and results. It's not something I would hang my hat on to say "so-and-so was +X or -Y tonight, so they had a great/garbage game". It's all about context and noise.

 

[A1LeafNation]

do you even watch raptors games at all or did you just watch orlando and philly series?
these so-called "chokers" won NBA championship. Sure, they all choked during first 2 series for whatever reason. But they played bucks and golden state as a team. Especially against Golden state when kawhi was limping all series since getting his thigh aggravated, all players stepped up BIG. Even during the regular season they ALL played as a team all year going 22-5 without kawhi. There is never going to be nearly as good team as they had in 2018/19. Btw, 22-5 is more impressive than this year's 9-4. Our team this year is a treadmill team with experience.

I'm talking regular season. Did you see the year?

 

[sparxx87]

It's a hard for me to determine which team I like more...

2018 chokers with Kawhi but play great.

2019 champs without Kawhi playing great.

I'm liking the later more.

The only choker was DeRozan.

Lowry was beat up in previous playoffs with quad and back injuries. Last year showed you what he can do when it’s something more manageable like a broken thumb.

 

[Suntouchable13]

do you even watch raptors games at all or did you just watch orlando and philly series?
these so-called "chokers" won NBA championship. Sure, they all choked during first 2 series for whatever reason. But they played bucks and golden state as a team. Especially against Golden state when kawhi was limping all series since getting his thigh aggravated, all players stepped up BIG. Even during the regular season they ALL played as a team all year going 22-5 without kawhi. There is never going to be nearly as good team as they had in 2018/19. Btw, 22-5 is more impressive than this year's 9-4. Our team this year is a treadmill team with experience.

9-4 is really impressive considering the injuries and schedule.

 

[BayStreetBully]

9-4 is really impressive considering the injuries and schedule.

Will they get win #10 before the Leafs do? Stay tuned.

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

Raptors are 40/1 and behind 10 other teams with the bookies to repeat. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think they will but 40/1 and ranked 11th seems wrong to me.

They have a shot at the East at least, no?

 

[yvrtojfk]

Anyone pick up the practice jersey this morning?

 

[Kurtz]

Raptors are 40/1 and behind 10 other teams with the bookies to repeat. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think they will but 40/1 and ranked 11th seems wrong to me.

They have a shot at the East at least, no?

Absolutely - there is no favourite in the East right now, and Masai has not been shy about making big trade deadline acquisitions before (Ibaka, Gasol). And we have all of our firsts and other assets that we can leverage in such a deal.

 

[IceColdBear]

Raptors are 40/1 and behind 10 other teams with the bookies to repeat. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think they will but 40/1 and ranked 11th seems wrong to me.

They have a shot at the East at least, no?

I would rank us behind:

Lakers
Clippers
Bucks
76ers
Celtics
Nuggets
Rockets

Debatable with some other teams like the Heat, Pacers, and Utah.

I would have us above all of those teams, but I wouldn't think someone was crazy for having us behind them.

I think 40/1 is a little low, but behind 10 teams isn't that crazy. I think we have around a 10 % chance of coming out of the East, which is a real chance, and less than 5 % to win the title (we will not be favored to win against most teams we would face from the West).

That 10 % or so odds to come out of the East would be based on 70% in the first round, 40 % in the second and third rounds where we probably will not be favored against 76ers, bucks or celtics.

0.7 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 11.2%.

That 70 % in the first round could be generous if we wind up playing a team like the Heat or Pacers too. The top two seeds in the East could be important, as I think there are 6 solid teams in the East.