Usports versus NCAA Div-1

[Barclay Donaldson]

Um, yes you do. That's pretty much the definition of how you judge the best team in the NHL.

I think what you meant to suggest is that the strength of an entire league should not be judged based on the performance of one of its teams in a short tournament.

If you want to judge the quality of a development league, draft picks is not an ideal metric because it's age-dependent. There are worse measures, mind-you, but one factor that drives the quality of a league is the average age of players in that league.

A better measure is NHLe ... the predicted number of points a player would produce in the NHL for every point they produce in a lower league. The higher the NHLe, the better the league.

A good overview is here:

BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics

A more current estimator is here:

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

If you play around with it, basically the KHL is the second-best league in the world. The OHL, WHL, and QMJHL are similar but ranked in that order. The USHL is not even on the radar, likely because so many players leave it when they hit 19 years old, and estimating an NHLe is super-noisy.

NCAA leagues generally have higher NHLe's than the CHL, again because of age ... players are older in the NCAA, thereby making it a tougher league to score in than the CHL.

The USHL has improved, and is a strong league. But I would stop short of declaring it better than the QMJHL.

Saying the Stanley Cup winner is the best team in the NHL sounds nice but is 100% fallacious. The St. Louis Blues were not the best team in the NHL last year. The Ottawa Senators were one goal away from the Stanley Cup Finals. It is erroneous to think that success in the Playoffs is indicative of who is the better team. It's whoever gets hot at the right time, and nothing more. With the number of series that go to Game 7 and the type of play in the playoffs, the game is often down to luck or bounces (from no call on Bozak tripping to Calgary's no goal) rather than skill.

Measuring by draft picks is age dependent, but it is also the most indicative of who is going on to play in the NHL and from where. The vast majority of NHL players are ones that are drafted. As much as they like to point out the Gourde's and Bobrovsky's of the league, they are few and far between.

 

[Campy]

I would agree. A lot of USPORTS guys graduate and move on to ECHL, DEL-1, EIHL and a few go to AHL. So, it is good semi-pro hockey (with no fights).

I would characterize USPORTS as ECHL guys with a few AHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more AHL guys, vs NCAA which is ECHL guys with a few NHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more NHL/AHL guys. That top-end talent makes a big difference.

Worth adding - USPORTS does not market itself as a 'development' league. It's an avenue to continue playing while attending University and improve your game (5 practices a week) where CHL and NCAA programs market the development and road-to-show approach.

I think USPORTS has had only 4-5 guys play in the NHL over the past 10 years and certainly no one with a 'career' in the NHL in that time frame.

Joel Ward from UPEI would have enough to call a career

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Joel Ward from UPEI would have enough to call a career

Former Alberta Golden Bear, Derek Ryan, also having a solid NHL career.

 

[WildWillie]

Totally disagree with the Q talent level decreasing. The last time I checked, the QMJHL has won 5 of the last 9 Memorial Cup championships. The expansion into the Maritime provinces (Nova Scotia,New Brunswick,PEI) has not only been a big success, but has produced top end talent, such as Crosby,McKinnon,Marchand,Couturier... Midget AAA programs have benefited from the Q and the increased exposure to pro /CHL/NCAA scouts.

A little off topic but a good discussion.

The team the Q sends to the Memorial cup, I will agree is usually as strong or stronger, but that is not a good representation of the entire league. the high end players are every bit as talented but the depth simply is not there. Contending teams in the Q really load up and there is usually a big talent discrepancy between the top 4-5 teams and the rest of the league, compared to the OHL/WHL. The Q also gets many free agent cast aways from the other leagues each year that didn't stick in the other leagues, but become solid contributors there.

I'm not sure what the % of high end prospects in the OHL and WHL are electing the NCAA route, but on the East Coact the % is way up and far more Canadians are heading south to play hockey. Conversely, I would say less Americans are playing major junior. The Yandle's, Erne's, Kane's, Garland's, Coyle's are few and far between now.

 

[MiamiHockey]

A little off topic but a good discussion.

The team the Q sends to the Memorial cup, I will agree is usually as strong or stronger, but that is not a good representation of the entire league. the high end players are every bit as talented but the depth simply is not there. Contending teams in the Q really load up and there is usually a big talent discrepancy between the top 4-5 teams and the rest of the league, compared to the OHL/WHL. The Q also gets many free agent cast aways from the other leagues each year that didn't stick in the other leagues, but become solid contributors there.

I'm not sure what the % of high end prospects in the OHL and WHL are electing the NCAA route, but on the East Coact the % is way up and far more Canadians are heading south to play hockey. Conversely, I would say less Americans are playing major junior. The Yandle's, Erne's, Kane's, Garland's, Coyle's are few and far between now.

I think you need to separate the elite / high-end prospects from the rest. I would generally agree that more Canadians are going to the NCAA (in concert with society's growing emphasis on education), but you can count on one hand the number of Canadians who are high NHL draft picks that choose to go to the NCAA in any given year. The vast majority are just hoping to get their education paid for while playing hockey at a high level for as long as they can ... perhaps with the hope of having a short career in Europe.

Americans going through Major Junior has always been rare. But, I present to you Alex Galchenyuk, Seth Jones, Matt Tkachuk, Kailer Yamamoto, Cal Foote & Nolan Foote for consideration in recent years. I don't think it's any rarer than it ever was. The reality is that Canadians care about Major Junior, Americans care about the NCAA, and those will always be their defaults.

There are, however, many more Europeans coming through the CHL ... especially high-end prospects looking to jump quickly to the NHL.