Usports versus NCAA Div-1

[MiamiHockey]

I'm not sure that the QMJHL as a whole is better than the USHL as a whole. The WHL and OHL certainly, but the talent level in the QMJHL has decreased this past decade.

And Auston Matthews also opted to play in Europe over the NCAA and CHL. The Everett Silvertips had his rights and were one of the better teams in the WHL that season. It should be just as telling as Matthews avoided the WHL as much as he did the NCAA.

Fair comment on the USHL vs. QMJHL. USHL is definitely improving, especially when you factor in the USNDTP.

I think the default for elite Americans is to go NCAA, and the default for elite Canadians is to go CHL, and any departure from that default is noteworthy (e.g., Jonathan Toews to UND, Patrick Kane to OHL). Clearly, money was factor (and why shouldn't it be) and he earned every penny in Switzerland that neither the CHL nor NCAA could offer him.

 

[Lakeheadfan95]

From what i found in Lakeheads archives they have 1 win 18 losses and 2 ties verse D1 schools

 

[Hollywood3]

There is a large difference in the type of player NCAA teams want. Many young players are convinced to join the BCJHL because its style of play is similar to the NCAA. It is much less physical than the Junior A leagues on the prairies. In the CW, this is a factor with UBC who always seem to be out-toughed by the prairie opponents.

The officiating in the NCAA favours less physical play. It has been described as youth-style officiating, i.e. players are basically penalized if they hit too hard.

 

[Corso]

Didn't Wisconsin play UBC in B.C. this year?

 

[AUS Fan]

I'm not going to say much, except to say that this is a great discussion and I thank you guys for your well-structured and respectful comments. I consider myself fairly knowledgeable in hockey matters, but I'm learning a lot of little details here.......

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Didn't Wisconsin play UBC in B.C. this year?

Wisconsin did play a two game set against UBC in Vancouver at the beginning of this season. Wisconsin won both games 3-0 and 7-5.

 

[Corso]

Would it be fair to put U-Sports Hockey at a range that encompasses high end NCAA D-III to low end D I programs with some outliers? A school like Alberta and UNB would most likely be equivalent to mid level D-I teams.

 

[MiamiHockey]

Would it be fair to put U-Sports Hockey at a range that encompasses high end NCAA D-III to low end D I programs with some outliers? A school like Alberta and UNB would most likely be equivalent to mid level D-I teams.

Except that in the pre-season Alberta beat #11 Minnesota-Duluth 5-3 and UNB beat Maine 5-0 ... both on the road (as with all USports vs NCAA games). Alberta and UNB are equivalent to high-end Div I teams, with any discrepancy in elite talent being compensated for by experience.

There is a substantial drop-off after Alberta and UNB, so I think it's fairer to say that most USports teams would be comparable in calibre to the Atlantic Hockey Conference (as exhibited with the recent RMC victory over Army) and ECAC, with a few programs being competitive with the Hockey East / Big Ten level conferences.

 

[MiamiHockey]

Didn't Wisconsin play UBC in B.C. this year?

Nice catch. Those games slipped off the radar.

Wisconsin won 3-0 and 7-5, in Vancouver. Games were in August. Shots favoured Wisconsin 38-26 and 34-25, respectively.

UBC is a middle-of-the-road USports Team. They sit well below .500 in Canada West, but would be more competitive in the OUA. They've never won anything.

Wisconsin is a traditional powerhouse hanging out at the bottom of the Big Ten standings this year, but with a decent non-conference record.

So, there you have it. A mid-tier NCAA Div I program beating a mid-tier USports team twice, but not exactly blowing them out of the water.

For those wondering "How did Alberta do at UBC?" Alberta won 4-3 and 5-0, with shots favouring Alberta 38-22 and 38-20, respectively.

So, Wisconsin goes into UBC and outscores them 10-5 and outshoots them 72-51 over two games ... one month later Alberta goes into UBC and outscores them 9-3 and outshoots them 76-42.

 

[Corso]

I'm sure both Alberta and UNB would do well in the D-I ranks but I don't think they would be ranked in the top 10, speculation on my part of course, but I would bet they would land in the top 20. Would it be accurate to say that the weaker U-Sport teams would rank at the absolute bottom, behind teams in the Atlantic Conference.

 

[Drummer]

I've watched a number of USPORTS (UNB) vs NCAA Games (BC-Gaudreau, BU-Bonino, UMaine-Nyquist, UNH-vanRiemsdyk) and my take away is the NCAA Teams generally have better top-end talent on the 1st line (and in nets - 'true' draft picks and IIHF U20 candidates), slightly better 2nd line and equal 3rd and 4th lines.

NCAA teams are a lot faster, overall (certainly the top 2 lines are) - they win battles to the puck due to their speed and then create chances from their. The USPORTS kids aren't quite as fast, but their 3rd and 4th lines are generally better - the USPORTS kids are older and bigger and they can use that size better.

When UNB has won, in almost all cases, it's by getting a 1st period lead and holding on for the rest of the game. Definitely don't get into penalty trouble as NCAA teams have superior PPs.

The rules involving contact with the Head and Goalie are different between the two leagues - a lot more conservative in the NCAA which leads to more penalties for USPORTS teams.

 

[MiamiHockey]

I'm sure both Alberta and UNB would do well in the D-I ranks but I don't think they would be ranked in the top 10, speculation on my part of course, but I would bet they would land in the top 20. Would it be accurate to say that the weaker U-Sport teams would rank at the absolute bottom, behind teams in the Atlantic Conference.

No, that's not accurate. RMC is one of the 3-4 weakest teams in USports and they just beat the top Atlantic Hockey team in Army. RMC was the better of the two teams in that game.

Manitoba, one of the weaker Canada West teams, went into Omaha and came away with a 3-3 tie.

Outside of Alberta and UNB, there's a fair bit of parity in USports, and most of that falls within the upper range of Atlantic Hockey / ECAC calibre.

 

[MiamiHockey]

NCAA Teams generally have better top-end talent on the 1st line (and in nets - 'true' draft picks and IIHF U20 candidates), slightly better 2nd line and equal 3rd and 4th lines.

NCAA teams are a lot faster, overall (certainly the top 2 lines are) - they win battles to the puck due to their speed and then create chances from their. The USPORTS kids aren't quite as fast, but their 3rd and 4th lines are generally better - the USPORTS kids are older and bigger and they can use that size better.

The rules involving contact with the Head and Goalie are different between the two leagues - a lot more conservative in the NCAA which leads to more penalties for USPORTS teams.

Truer words have not been spoken.

 

[Hollywood3]

FWIW, UBC hosted Wisconsin this year and lost both. They hosted UND and Princeton a couple years back and won both. RMC rotates hosting with Army. Ottawa hosted somebody 5-6 years ago. Lakehead has hosted the odd series, but not recently. (In fact, Lakehead and Bemidji were once in an NAIA league if you really go back.) Alberta offered to host a champ vs champ game but were turned down Stauffer has the details on that one. Otherwise, that's it for games in Canada.

 

[Corso]

No, that's not accurate. RMC is one of the 3-4 weakest teams in USports and they just beat the top Atlantic Hockey team in Army. RMC was the better of the two teams in that game.

Manitoba, one of the weaker Canada West teams, went into Omaha and came away with a 3-3 tie.

Outside of Alberta and UNB, there's a fair bit of parity in USports, and most of that falls within the upper range of Atlantic Hockey / ECAC calibre.

Seems like a good level of hockey then, perhaps not as equal to the NCAA in overall talent but close enough in terms of play.

 

[FreddyFoyle]

I've watched a number of USPORTS (UNB) vs NCAA Games (BC-Gaudreau, BU-Bonino, UMaine-Nyquist, UNH-vanRiemsdyk) and my take away is the NCAA Teams generally have better top-end talent on the 1st line (and in nets - 'true' draft picks and IIHF U20 candidates), slightly better 2nd line and equal 3rd and 4th lines.

NCAA teams are a lot faster, overall (certainly the top 2 lines are) - they win battles to the puck due to their speed and then create chances from their. The USPORTS kids aren't quite as fast, but their 3rd and 4th lines are generally better - the USPORTS kids are older and bigger and they can use that size better.

When UNB has won, in almost all cases, it's by getting a 1st period lead and holding on for the rest of the game. Definitely don't get into penalty trouble as NCAA teams have superior PPs.

The rules involving contact with the Head and Goalie are different between the two leagues - a lot more conservative in the NCAA which leads to more penalties for USPORTS teams.

I travelled with Drummer to the games he mentioned and I agree completely with his assessment. Speaking to different UMaine coaches over the years, and BC's Jerry York, they have offered and/or agreed that UNB would be a contender in Hockey East. But of course, we are comparing apples and oranges.

 

[Drummer]

FWIW, UBC hosted Wisconsin this year and lost both. They hosted UND and Princeton a couple years back and won both. RMC rotates hosting with Army. Ottawa hosted somebody 5-6 years ago. Lakehead has hosted the odd series, but not recently. ... in Canada.

UNB has hosted four(4) NCAA teams in the past decade (or so), Union in 2007 (single game; 8-3 UNB win. Union's first game of the 4 team tournament was against weaker STU which they won to advance against UNB). Two games vs UMaine in the fall of 2008; 4-5 & 7-6 SO. Two games vs BC in 2009. 5-3 and 2-4 resulted in a 7-7 tie over two games. OT was played to decide the tournament winner (UNB) and in 2010 versus Providence 3-1 and 0-1. So, about .500

 

[Drummer]

Seems like a good level of hockey then, perhaps not as equal to the NCAA in overall talent but close enough in terms of play.

I would agree. A lot of USPORTS guys graduate and move on to ECHL, DEL-1, EIHL and a few go to AHL. So, it is good semi-pro hockey (with no fights).

I would characterize USPORTS as ECHL guys with a few AHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more AHL guys, vs NCAA which is ECHL guys with a few NHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more NHL/AHL guys. That top-end talent makes a big difference.

Worth adding - USPORTS does not market itself as a 'development' league. It's an avenue to continue playing while attending University and improve your game (5 practices a week) where CHL and NCAA programs market the development and road-to-show approach.

I think USPORTS has had only 4-5 guys play in the NHL over the past 10 years and certainly no one with a 'career' in the NHL in that time frame.

 

[WildWillie]

I would agree. A lot of USPORTS guys graduate and move on to ECHL, DEL-1, EIHL and a few go to AHL. So, it is good semi-pro hockey (with no fights).

I would characterize USPORTS as ECHL guys with a few AHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more AHL guys, vs NCAA which is ECHL guys with a few NHL studs spread out with the top teams having a few more NHL/AHL guys. That top-end talent makes a big difference.

Worth adding - USPORTS does not market itself as a 'development' league. It's an avenue to continue playing while attending University and improve your game (5 practices a week) where CHL and NCAA programs market the development and road-to-show approach.

I think USPORTS has had only 4-5 guys play in the NHL over the past 10 years and certainly no one with a 'career' in the NHL in that time frame.

There are probably only a handful of guys in all of USPORTS in a given season that will be capable of moving on to the AHL. Also, I would say how you are describing Usports is only the top teams like UNB. I don't think middle of the pack teams, and especially not the weaker programs like Dal, UPEI would have more tham 50% of their roster even get a sniff in the East Coast league

 

[MiamiHockey]

There are probably only a handful of guys in all of USPORTS in a given season that will be capable of moving on to the AHL. Also, I would say how you are describing Usports is only the top teams like UNB. I don't think middle of the pack teams, and especially not the weaker programs like Dal, UPEI would have more tham 50% of their roster even get a sniff in the East Coast league

The same facts hold for NCAA teams, save for a few elite players.

Take a look at some NCAA rosters over recent seasons, and look at how few players move on to the ECHL, much less the AHL, with any level of success.

But, then again, why would they want to? What's the average salary in the ECHL? Or the AHL? An entry-level Accountant has a higher salary than an AHL players. A journeyman carpenter makes more than an ECHLer.

One big difference between USports and the NCAA is, as mentioned before, most guys go to USports having already realized that it's not worth pursuing a pro career. They've played Major Junior, some have had a cup of coffee in the ECHL or AHL, and they want to get on with their lives. I don't get that same sense with the NCAA, statistics be damned.

 

[dm8895]

I think USPORTS has had only 4-5 guys play in the NHL over the past 10 years and certainly no one with a 'career' in the NHL in that time frame.

He played over seas for a handful of years between USports and the NHL, but Derek Ryan is well on his way to having a successful NHL career.

 

[Jack Flask]

The same facts hold for NCAA teams, save for a few elite players.

Take a look at some NCAA rosters over recent seasons, and look at how few players move on to the ECHL, much less the AHL, with any level of success.

But, then again, why would they want to? What's the average salary in the ECHL? Or the AHL? An entry-level Accountant has a higher salary than an AHL players. A journeyman carpenter makes more than an ECHLer.

One big difference between USports and the NCAA is, as mentioned before, most guys go to USports having already realized that it's not worth pursuing a pro career. They've played Major Junior, some have had a cup of coffee in the ECHL or AHL, and they want to get on with their lives. I don't get that same sense with the NCAA, statistics be damned.

When you take the career factor off the table the results usually show up quickly. One thing D1 has over Usports is the dream is still alive. Its a motivator and it gives D1 the edge.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

I'm not sure that the QMJHL as a whole is better than the USHL as a whole. The WHL and OHL certainly, but the talent level in the QMJHL has decreased this past decade.

And Auston Matthews also opted to play in Europe over the NCAA and CHL. The Everett Silvertips had his rights and were one of the better teams in the WHL that season. It should be just as telling as Matthews avoided the WHL as much as he did the NCAA.

Totally disagree with the Q talent level decreasing. The last time I checked, the QMJHL has won 5 of the last 9 Memorial Cup championships. The expansion into the Maritime provinces (Nova Scotia,New Brunswick,PEI) has not only been a big success, but has produced top end talent, such as Crosby,McKinnon,Marchand,Couturier... Midget AAA programs have benefited from the Q and the increased exposure to pro /CHL/NCAA scouts.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Totally disagree with the Q talent level decreasing. The last time I checked, the QMJHL has won 5 of the last 9 Memorial Cup championships. The expansion into the Maritime provinces (Nova Scotia,New Brunswick,PEI) has not only been a big success, but has produced top end talent, such as Crosby,McKinnon,Marchand,Couturier... Midget AAA programs have benefited from the Q and the increased exposure to pro /CHL/NCAA scouts.

Are you seriously be judging league strength based on the Memorial Cup? The Memorial Cup is won by the best team in the country just as often as it is not. Examples over the past few years include Windsor in 2017, Acadie-Bathurst in 2018, and certainly Edmonton in 2014. You don't judge who the best team in the NHL is based on who wins the Stanley Cup. The Memorial Cup is the same way. The Huskie's leading point producer by almost 30 points during their Memorial Cup winning season was Peter Abbandonato. From your logic would make him the top player on the top team in the country. He couldn't make it in the AHL this season and he was sent down to the ECHL two weeks ago.

The only real way to tell which league has the highest quality is judging how many of their players get drafted into the NHL and where. That is the one that the scouts, analysts, and coaches use so I can only assume they use it for a good reason. Consult this table here. If you need more convincing, I can do the total number of first rounders by league too. Or if you can find a better judging mechanism, by all means I encourage you to bring it out. Because measuring by Memorial Cups is not it.

Draft Year	WHL	OHL	QMJHL	USHL
2010	43	43	22	20
2011	33	46	22	25
2012	30	48	19	25
2013	33	37	31	25
2014	37	41	17	35
2015	35	31	30	31
2016	34	48	14	27
2017	33	42	14	31
2018	20	35	23	45
2019	28	25	18	52
Total	326	396	210	316

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiHockey]

You don't judge who the best team in the NHL is based on who wins the Stanley Cup.

Um, yes you do. That's pretty much the definition of how you judge the best team in the NHL.

I think what you meant to suggest is that the strength of an entire league should not be judged based on the performance of one of its teams in a short tournament.

If you want to judge the quality of a development league, draft picks is not an ideal metric because it's age-dependent. There are worse measures, mind-you, but one factor that drives the quality of a league is the average age of players in that league.

A better measure is NHLe ... the predicted number of points a player would produce in the NHL for every point they produce in a lower league. The higher the NHLe, the better the league.

A good overview is here:

BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics

A more current estimator is here:

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

If you play around with it, basically the KHL is the second-best league in the world. The OHL, WHL, and QMJHL are similar but ranked in that order. The USHL is not even on the radar, likely because so many players leave it when they hit 19 years old, and estimating an NHLe is super-noisy.

NCAA leagues generally have higher NHLe's than the CHL, again because of age ... players are older in the NCAA, thereby making it a tougher league to score in than the CHL.

The USHL has improved, and is a strong league. But I would stop short of declaring it better than the QMJHL.