Using Petr Mrazeks development as a guide for Laurent Brossoit

[Aceboogie]

I was looking at some young goalies around the league, and Mrazek blew me away how good he is in the NHL. Looking at his development thru the AHL, we should use it as a guide for Brosssoit. Hopefully one day Brossoit can be as good

Mrazek was a 5 round pick in 2010, Brossoit was a 6th round pick in 2011

CHL- final year
Brossoit- 0.917
Mrazek- 0.917

Similar junior careers, both promising guys, neither were blue chippers in junior

AHL- 1st full season
Brossoit- 53 GP 0.918
Mrazek- 42 GP 0.916

Both got an NHL game after their firts season. Mrzaek got 2 and was 0.922, Brossoit got 1 GP and was sensational with a 0.961 and 60 shots against. Advantage to Mrazek tho as he was 2 years younger than Brossoit was in his first full season. However, both look pretty similar here too

Here where we need to pay attention.

2nd AHL season
Brossoit- 0.924 (currently this season)
Mrazek- 32 GP 0.924 sv%

Mrazek then went on to get 9 games in the show, with a very good 0.927. It was around this point in time Mrazek was solidly on the radar as a blue chip prospect and potential future starter. If I remember correctly Barons played the Rapids in the playoffs and Mrazek was a brick wall. It was only a matter of time for him. By all accounts, Brossoit is currently a brick wall down in the AHL. The only reports ive seen of him are that hes playing amazing and only reason they are in playoff hunt. This is where Oilers should bring up Brossoit for 5-10 games. Give him some solid experience

3rd AHL season
Mrazek- 13 AHL GP 0.927, 29 NHL GP 0.918
Brossoit- TB

4th season (this year)
Mrazek- 0.932 in NHL (33 GP)

Whats the take away here? Well looking at their careers, they are almost identical in junior and first 2 AHL years. We are at a point in time with Brossoit that Mrazek was in 2.5 years ago. He was brought up for 9 NHL games, then spend the next season half in AHL, half in NHL. Then the season after, he became a full time NHL player

For Brossoit, we should follow the same guide. 5-10 NHL games this season. Next season 15-25 NHL games (essentially a back up whos spends his games off in AHL). Then in 2017-18 look to bringing him in full time- assuming he develops properly and ready for it

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[Spawn]

Seems like you're fudging the comparison a bit tbh.
You're comparing their first two AHL years, but ignoring that Brossoit's first pro year was in the ECHL where as Mrazek started in the AHL right away. You say Brossoit is on the same path as Mrazek, just 2.5 years behind. But they're just a year apart in draft year and age.

Midway through his 3rd pro season (where Brossoit is now), Mrazek was in the process of challenging for the starting job in the NHL, and seemed to take over come playoff time.

For Brossoit to be on pace, he'd need to be in the NHL right now as Talbot's backup putting up really good numbers.

Not to mention, I'm sure there are plenty of goalies who put up comparable numbers to Mrazek/Brossoit in the AHL who don't go on to take over their teams starting position so quickly. Is Mrazek what we can expect? Or is he just an exception.

 

[Aceboogie]

Seems like you're fudging the comparison a bit tbh.
You're comparing their first two AHL years, but ignoring that Brossoit's first pro year was in the ECHL where as Mrazek started in the AHL right away. You say Brossoit is on the same path as Mrazek, just 2.5 years behind. But they're just a year apart in draft year and age.

Midway through his 3rd pro season (where Brossoit is now), Mrazek was in the process of challenging for the starting job in the NHL, and seemed to take over come playoff time.

For Brossoit to be on pace, he'd need to be in the NHL right now as Talbot's backup putting up really good numbers.

Not to mention, I'm sure there are plenty of goalies who put up comparable numbers to Mrazek/Brossoit in the AHL who don't go on to take over their teams starting position so quickly. Is Mrazek what we can expect? Or is he just an exception.

I dont think or expect Brossoit to be Mrazek, just using his development as a guide. No two goalies are going to have identical paths. Brossoit is older at same career points (rookie AHL seasons). Although I dont believe the 1 year advantage Brossoit had in age gave him too much of an advantage.

I think Brossoits performance in the AHL has been great. Although Ortio and Markstrom were both great AHL tenders to and flopped in NHL.

Mrazeks development path is a great guide for Brossoit. So Oilers shouldnt be trying to rush him. Mrazek was a dominant AHL goalie for 2 years before getting NHL time consistently. Brossoit is only at 1 season. This is a comparison of who is better, Brossoit or Mrazaek (Mrazek obviously), its a comparison of paths. Brossoit is on similar path, just behind ( 1 year younger and 1 year extra of ECHL time)

 

[Mr Positive]

at 22, I think we should be okay with the idea of letting Brossoit stay in the AHL for this season and next. He could still get some NHL starts in this span. As of now I'm fine with rolling with Talbot and Nilsson, especially considering the state of our D. I doubt this place is great for a goalie this young.

Nilsson is the guy who gets lost in the shuffle a bit. He's young too, and if he were our prospect I think more people would be curious to see what he could develop into. The way I see it unfolding is that Nilsson does find his game again (especially if we can fix the D a bit), and then we re-sign him to a low-cap deal for 2-3 years. He stays as our back up, but we trade him within a season or two for a decent asset, and then have Brossoit up for good.

 

[Aceboogie]

at 22, I think we should be okay with the idea of letting Brossoit stay in the AHL for this season and next. He could still get some NHL starts in this span. As of now I'm fine with rolling with Talbot and Nilsson, especially considering the state of our D. I doubt this place is great for a goalie this young.

Nilsson is the guy who gets lost in the shuffle a bit. He's young too, and if he were our prospect I think more people would be curious to see what he could develop into. The way I see it unfolding is that Nilsson does find his game again (especially if we can fix the D a bit), and then we re-sign him to a low-cap deal for 2-3 years. He stays as our back up, but we trade him within a season or two for a decent asset, and then have Brossoit up for good.

Thatd be the best. You have to expose young goalies to the NHL style so that they can train and development different parts of their game to suit the NHL. But you cant overexpose them and then risk ruining their confidence. 5 games this season (preferably 5 in 8 games) would do wonders. Itd expose him enough to the point his faults would show, but then sending him back down would prevent him for getting confidence shot. Then 25 games in AHL to start next season, before potentially bringing him up for a 15 game stretch (expose him more and more slowly)

Worst thing IMO would be to hold him down in AHL for too long and then rush him to NHL if Talbot gets injured and force him to play 40 games or something

Developing a goalie is like a diver resurfacing from a deep sea dive. Got to bring yourself up through the depth slowly and expose yourself a bit at a time. Come up to fats and gets the bends

 

[Mr Positive]

...

Worst thing IMO would be to hold him down in AHL for too long and then rush him to NHL if Talbot gets injured and force him to play 40 games or something

Developing a goalie is like a diver resurfacing from a deep sea dive. Got to bring yourself up through the depth slowly and expose yourself a bit at a time. Come up to fats and gets the bends

we also want him to get a good amount of NHL time, probably starting this season, just to make sure he develops right. We don't want him to tailor his game too much for the AHL. I got the impression that maybe that's what went on with Markstrom (who is actually starting to play well again btw).

Draisaitl benefited from his NHL time last season even though it was a rough stretch of hockey for him, because it was a slap in the face to him about what he needed to do to meet his potential as an NHL player. Brossoit should get a real-life reminder of the NHL regularly to make sure he knows what to work on, and being told what to do is no substitute for experiencing it yourself.

 

[Aceboogie]

we also want him to get a good amount of NHL time, probably starting this season, just to make sure he develops right. We don't want him to tailor his game too much for the AHL. I got the impression that maybe that's what went on with Markstrom (who is actually starting to play well again btw).

Draisaitl benefited from his NHL time last season even though it was a rough stretch of hockey for him, because it was a slap in the face to him about what he needed to do to meet his potential as an NHL player. Brossoit should get a real-life reminder of the NHL regularly to make sure he knows what to work on, and being told what to do is no substitute for experiencing it yourself.

5-10 games this season behind out D will be a big reality check haha Whatever amount of games until he cracks a bit will be good. Just long enough for him to be exposed. Then 25 games in AHL to correct that. Then a longer stint where he gets more exposed, then 25 more AHL games. Then potentially hes ready

 

[Samus44]

A better comparison believe it or not may be Connor Hellebucyk:

Age 17:

At 17 Brossoit was a key player for the Oil Kings albeit not particularly good statistically, however such is the norm for junior goalies of his age. Hellebuyck was playing High School hockey and actually had a worse save percentage in doing so.

Age 18:

At 18 Brossoit blossomed into a quality/star WHL starter leading the Oil Kings to the WHL championship with a .914 sv%. Hellebuyck was playing pre college hockey at a much lower level in the NAHL, somewhat comparable to the AJHL i suppose, and he had a quality season there as well with a .930 sv%.

Comments after two years:

At this point it seems that Brossoit has the edge given the level of competition he's been playing at but it's damn near impossible to compare SV% across such vastly different years, and this will be a theme until the AHL years become comparable.

Age 19:

Hellebuyck at 19 was only a co-starter on his college team with a ridiculous .952 sv%, although in fairness he clearly outperformed his partner. This is his crown jewel of a season but i think it's fair to suggest his team may of had a role in his numbers and as a rookie i'd guess he got the easier games and was protected, at least early on. Brossoit at this age was finishing his junior career by leading his team to it's second finals appearance in the WHL. Clearly Brossoit has been on a far more accelerated career path in terms of personal challenges, although Hellebuyck now has an outstanding 24 games on his college resume. in fact by the time Hellebucyk played his first 24 college games Brossoit had finished his WHL career having played 147 regular season games and another 44 playoff games as well as 4 games in the Memorial Cup. I would suggest that despite Hellebuyck's amazing rookie college season his 24 games doesn't trump that, but it certainly does put him probably level with him at least.

Age 20:

Then at 20 Hellebucyk put up a tremendous college season with a .941 sv% in 29 games, although in fairness this time his backup/former co-starter put up damn near identicle numbers in 12 games with a .936 sv% which i'm guessing was aided by sheltered competition a reversal of fortunes of their first season. Brossoit by contrast was playing and dominating in an even tougher league than college, the ECHL. Brossoit as a 20 year old tied the league record for shut outs with 8, in only 38 games, and was a second team All Star with a .926 sv%.

Comments after two years:

Again at this point it's difficult to compare them but at the same age both players are excelling in their respective leagues neither of which is a low level of competition. Hellebuyck probably deserves the edge in these two seasons, his college numbers are crazy, but Brossoit did just about as good as a young goalie could do in the WHL and ECHL. His last season as a point of reference saw him post the same sv% as Carey Price in his final junior year, although Price was unreal at an earlier age but seemingly stagnated as he went on (probably due to more difficult starts after likely being sheltered as a 16-17 year old).

Age 21:

Here's where things get interesting and i'll go the most in depth on their numbers as these are by far the most relevant seasons. Brossoit had an outstanding rookie year in the AHL getting most of his starts on a depleted and then terrible Oil Kings roster in the 2nd half of the season. He had a solid .918 sv% and 2.56 GAA in 53 games with 4 shutouts facing an average of 31 shots per 60 mins. Hellebuyck by contrast had a .921 sv% and 2.58 GAA in 58 games with 6 shutouts facing an average of 33 shots per game. Hellebuyck played a middling team during his outstanding rookie season. These years are extremely comparable and a very slight edge goes to Hellebuyck on their AHL performance, however Brossoit did put up an outstanding 49 save performance with a .961 sv% in his lone NHL start while Hellebuyck understandably only played in the AHL. Given that i'd call this season a wash.

Age 22:

Brossoit in 24 games has put up a .924 sv%, 3 shutouts, a 2.61 GAA facing an average of 35 shots per night on an awful team he basically has to carry. Hellebuyck in contrast has played 10 games with a .927 sv%, 1 shutout, a 2.41 GAA facing an average of 33 shots per night also playing on a terrible team, although the Moose really can't score. Again very comparable, perhaps a slight edge again to Hellebuyck but it's so close it's really tough to consider it all that different. However Hellebuyck has played 22 NHL games this season putting up a .927 sv% in the AHL for the Jets giving him the clear edge this season but that's largely due to opportunity.

Comments after it all:

Both guys seem to get better as they go up the ladder as both have projectable frames and seem to benefit from increased defensive awareness. Both have shown very well in the NHL and have very comparable AHL stats, although Brossoit obviously has only played in 1, albeit outstanding, NHL game. Hellebuyck is clearly a bit ahead but it's been so close year after year when comparing the level of hockey they've played at and there performance i can't help but think we've got a legit gem here in Brossoit in our own rights. I'd like to see him get some games in post deadline if Nilsson can't get his **** together and although i still think one more year in the AHL probably makes more sense than backing Talbot up next year if he fares well in his potential NHL stint it'll be interesting to see if he can be the Oilers real #2 goalie next season despite playing in the AHL. Exciting times, i think Brossoit is doing everything a guy could ask of him at the moment and it's fair to be a bit excited. Hopefully i don't jinx him with this post but i found this comparison to be interesting and thought perhaps i ought to share it.

 

[Oil Gauge]

I think the biggest factor in this is the NHL team that the 2 goalies would be called up to. One Is perennially in the playoff hunt and an average or above average defensive team. its much easier to step into a situation like that as a goalie and perform well for a long stretch of time.

For a guy like Brossoit he'd be joining a team that is 3rd last in goals against this season. And we've been happy with our goaltending this year. To throw him into a situation like that could go poorly and ruin his confidence. There is no rush to develop this kid. Let him dominate in the AHL until he pushes his way up here. maybe its as a back up next year. Preferably its just for injury relief next year, and then the following year he can back up.

I don't think we need to try to push talbot out of the crease any time soon. We have him signed till 2018-19. ideally Broissoit is ready to take the reigns as a starter for the 2019-20 season, then hopefully you have 2 competent starters to choose from. Or you're in a position to make a trade and get an asset back for one of these goalies.

 

[Beerfish]

If Brossoit plays at the high level has so far this and hopefully the condors get into the playoffs and he looks good there then the backup tending job should be wide open next year and he should get an equal chance to be #2 on the big squad as Nilsson or any other guy.

 

[ap3x]

I think the biggest factor in this is the NHL team that the 2 goalies would be called up to. One Is perennially in the playoff hunt and an average or above average defensive team. its much easier to step into a situation like that as a goalie and perform well for a long stretch of time.

For a guy like Brossoit he'd be joining a team that is 3rd last in goals against this season. And we've been happy with our goaltending this year. To throw him into a situation like that could go poorly and ruin his confidence. There is no rush to develop this kid. Let him dominate in the AHL until he pushes his way up here. maybe its as a back up next year. Preferably its just for injury relief next year, and then the following year he can back up.

At least that's what it is on paper. But if Mrazek won't register a .932 SV %, it would look much worse. We're lucky that Mrazek tears it up so far.
Just compare defensive stats with Howard in net, who is far from his best form right now. You're right though: Hardly comparable to your situation that relies much more on its offense.

As it has been mentioned already: Guess in regard to Petr's development, it was crucial that he had much time to get used to the NHL and slowly taking over the starting job - he really had to earn it by playing pretty good in the AHL for a longer time. From one point on he couldn't learn so much anymore and had to face the next challenge.

Especially chances given to him in last seasons playoffs helped a lot to shape his play out and bring him to the next level.
Gonna be interesting how he deals with the next slump and in how far Howard takes advantage of that.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I think Broissoit will get a few starts towards the end of the season so they can get a look at him.

Think his situation next year will have a lot to do with Nilsson. If Nilsson stays another year to back up Talbot then Broissoit will be in BAK again. I have a feeling Nilsson might think his development would be better served playing #1 minutes in Europe or the KHL, and realistically that wouldn't be bad for the Oilers, Nilsson is still pretty young, we would still retain his right maybe he comes back in a couple years and takes a run at the starting job. If that's the case we could see Broissoit as the back up next year.

 

[Shredator]

The main difference betwwen Mrazek and LB is that Mrazek plays for Detroit.

They have a habit of making Average NHL goalies look Average +
Osgood
Vernon
Howard
Mrazek

Mrazek in Edmonton would be run out of town.

 

[Aceboogie]

The main difference betwwen Mrazek and LB is that Mrazek plays for Detroit.

They have a habit of making Average NHL goalies look Average +
Osgood
Vernon
Howard
Mrazek

Mrazek in Edmonton would be run out of town.

Horward never really looked that good. Osgood got some cups but that team was utterly ridiculous

Mrazek on the other hand looks legit. Extremly good AHL #s