University Of Toronto Study: Canada can support an addtional SIX franchises

[Moobles]

The article basically rehashes what we've seen on here with some fairly decent analysis, graphs and a very nice layout (surprisingly refreshing.

I appreciated they're sober interpretation of NHL markets, and while they gave Hamilton and London nice aggregate scores unlike what some people on here think they weren't completely rosy about the picture of NHL teams. The biggest point they make that made sense is shared arena tenants: it does reduce the cost for teams to operate in a shared arena if one time does indeed bring in the bucks. It's nice to see some analysis devoted to Canada, though I'm sure they had their biases and doubt they went into the study expecting to find results otherwise.

The one thing they don't mention is the power of brand power, and that new teams in these cities would be completely reliant on new franchises being able to gain a portion of their fan-base. Now it's hard to do this. Every Canadian team now has more than 20 years of history in their areas, but I roughly hypothesize that some areas probably would do better than others. Namely, the GTA, Winnipeg and Quebec (small markets but viable) could all probably support new teams, and maybe you could penetrate the brand in Montreal and Vancouver. In both of the latter cases however the current team is very popular: it's hard to envision how a new team would be able to sift fans from them. That I think would merit analysis in itself, but probably the best way (imo.) would be some kind of geopartisan divide in the way that the Rangers/Isles, Yankees/Mets do it (though New York benefits from having 17 mil+ in its GMA). In Vancouver an "east/south side" or suburban team might be able to capture the imagination of fans (especially if the Canucks were struggling) and in Montreal perhaps a West island team (exploiting the English/French divide) or a Laval one could reel in new fans. But I honestly think it'd be hard to do, since there's a lot of brand loyalty to penetrate in those areas (and in Montreal; practically their civic religion since the 1930s.)

Still, an interesting study to read.

 

[IceAce]

Sunrise Florida? Seriously? When you are trying to develop a market, it doesn't make sense to make your fans drive out to some retirement village in the boondocks to attend a game. How many movers and shakers from Miami or Ft. Lauderdale are going to impress their clients by driving them over an hour out to shady acres for entertainment? Their attendance grew every year at the (capacity limited) Miami Arena, but has now flat-lined since 1999. A winning product on the ice would no doubt help as well.
.

Except that most of the "fanbase" with disposable income in SoFla is in Broward and Palm Beach counties which is why the new arena was built in Sunrise. That's just the way South Florida works. The Dolphins have known this for decades and have been successful playing in the "boonies" instead of the City of Miami.
The Marlins are in the process of doing the exact opposite of this and I have a feeling they'll find out the hard way in a few years when the shine of the new ballpark at the old Orange Bowl site wears off.

The attendance was good early on for the Panthers when the team was playing in Miami because the team was new and then they got good quickly. It's no coincidence that attendance has been horrible in the new building because the team hasn't seen the playoffs since 1999. The Heat are sort of the exception because they've been good for a while, and once LeBron and Bosh signed they shot up into the stratosphere, so it's pointless to even compare them.

 

[Jet]

I think 4 more teams is a no brainer if you want a league that has teams in all strong markets.

Winnipeg, Quebec, Southern Ontario and Montreal are all no brainers IMO.

No way that Montreal doesn't support a second team.

I actually do believe that Vancouver might be able to support a second team but it could be dicey.

 

[wjhl2009fan]

Well the Leafs and Sens don't really effect each other, I mean, your talking about all the way across the province. Ottawa is what, 400 or 500km from Toronto? I don't think the NHL would dare put another team close to Ottawa, the team already struggles to draw fans.

First i would not say ottawa struggles to draw fans when they did avg just over 18.000 per game this year which is good and yes it was down this year but still its good.As for them beeing all the way arcosse ontario no not really ottawa-toronto is about 250 km if traffic is good you can make it just over 4 hours.Now if you add a team say in oshawa then another one in montreal which for many is just a 1hr and half drive yes i could see it creating a bit of an issue.

 

[Evil Doctor]

That thing on one side of the QEW is "reality" (also known as the fact that all NHL marekts depend on a corporate community).

And that other thing is "the cold hard truth" (also known as the absence of a sufficient corporate community in the Hamilton area, and a near complete absence in Hamiltonn proper).

Something I found interesting....

http://www.manta.com/world/North+America/Canada/Ontario/Hamilton/

10,319 companies, just in Hamilton alone, on this one website. Doesn't sound anything like a near complete absence in Hamilton proper...

 

[LeftCoast]

That thing on one side of the QEW is "reality" (also known as the fact that all NHL marekts depend on a corporate community).



And that other thing is "the cold hard truth" (also known as the absence of a sufficient corporate community in the Hamilton area, and a near complete absence in Hamiltonn proper).

Hamilton and Hamilton Area Corporations and major employers:

Private Sector

• US Steel - formerly Stelco
• Dofasco (Steel)
• Taylor Steel
• GE Canada
• National Steel Car Co.
• Seimens Canada
• Fluke Canada
• Orlick Industries (David Braley)
• John Deere Canada
• Oakrun Bakeries

Public Sector

• Hamilton Health Sciences
• McMaster University
• Hamilton Port Authority

Kitchener-Waterloo / Cambridge
Private Sector

• Sunlife Financial
• Research in Motion
• Opentext Corp
• Thyssenkrupp Budd Canada
• Sybase Canada
• Manulife Financial
• Toyota Canada (Cambridge)
• Sandivine
• ATS Automation
• Maple Leaf Foods

Public Sector

• University of Waterloo
• Wilfred Laurier University
• Grand River Healthcare

I dare say, that is probably a better corporate presence than Vancouver.

 

[BigFatCat999]

My only problem with the study is that support 'NOW' but what about later? Businesses have to look a good 10-20 years into the future. When you are looking into a business you have to think in lifespans of generations not years.

Still, I do believe that:

A) there is talent to expand to 32 teams

B) The financial stability, in my opinion, says Canada.

C) It is well past due time for the golden horseshoe to get another team. Having the Leafs monopolize one of the biggest hockey markets is on par to Saudi Arabia of Brazil only having one oil well.

D) (And yes this is a parting shot) Maybe this will solve some of that Canadian inferiority complex....

 

[Killion]

Firstly, I'm disappointed no one picked up on that 'brain dead simple' thing I threw out there. Just like poor RR's avatar has gone unnoticed....

I did read the 'Brain Dead Simple' bit Fugu, however its not quite as simple as many seem to assume. If you do the math, from land acquisition to infrastructure services, building an arena along with the rest ala Lighthouse; indemnifications to MLSE, the Expansion or Whopper of a Relo Fee, youd be so far behind the 8 Ball right of the shoot that it would be like trying to ride a Brahma Bull using a giant rubber band instead of a leather cinch. You wouldnt stay on for more than a second & youd get badly gored for your effort. So, why would you ask your leading financial franchise to bow down to the ill-will of the majority in their unfair demands that you allow another team into your front yard?. Put them out back, in Hamilton. Never mind the ramifications of the concert & event revenues a direct competitor to the ACC in Downsview or Vaughan would create. This suggestion would wreak havoc on the market. If forced, I could easily envision a scenario whereby MLSE along with 8-10 other franchises' opt out of the National Hockey League. A Contractionists wet dream.

Dual team ownership?. How would that work?. Recipie for collusion & disaster. As you know, Big Jim Norris owned the Black Hawks, his daughter & son the Wings, he'd lent so much money to Boston as to be defacto owner; and he financially propped up the NYR & controlled MSG in a 6 team league. Boston & the NYR's were basically dumping grounds through the 50's & 60's for disgruntled players, as was Chicago itself for a few years in order to quell the player uprisings led by Ted Lindsay. Talent is stretched thin at 30 teams. If MLSE owned another team in Houston or Portland, I'd bet you'd see a repeat of the Big Jim methodology of market manipulation, the team in Oregon or Texas receiving Leaf rejects, a sort of semi-AHL/NHL squad of malcontents & Over the Hill Gang types that Gretzky tried on in Phoenix.

Overwhelming demand is a good thing. Oversaturation is not, and another team in Toronto would be just that IMO..... As for RR's avatar?. Its just so sad....

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

If Chicago can support two baseball teams and LA can support two basketball teams, why can't Toronto have two hockey teams?

Well your agrument isn't that comparable

Chicago has had 2 baseball teams for over a century ,,, This is generations of fans and families

Just putting another team in Toronto isn't a sure success ,, Why would lifelong leaf fans start cheering for another team?

 

[bicycles]

I think Hamilton, Winnipeg, Quebec City would all be fine.
2nd tier, perhaps Surrey, 2nd Montreal team, and Missassauga.
3rd tier is Halifax, Victoria, London, K/W, etc

 

[Jet]

Well your agrument isn't that comparable

Chicago has had 2 baseball teams for over a century ,,, This is generations of fans and families

Just putting another team in Toronto isn't a sure success ,, Why would lifelong leaf fans start cheering for another team?

Well, they are used to doing it every spring, so it's not much of a leap

 

[coolboarder]

Study: Canada Can Support 12 Teams

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/2011/04/12/17962586.html

Study: Canada can support 12 NHL teams
By QMI Agency


Canada could support 12 NHL hockey teams, or double the current number, the study by the University of Toronto's Mowat Centre for Policy Innovation. (QMI AGENCY/REUTERS)

A Canadian hockey team is likely to pull in about US$23 million more a year in gate revenue than a rival in a U.S. city, thanks to the Canadian passion for the sport, according to a new study looking at the best locations for NHL expansion.

Canada could support 12 NHL hockey teams, or double the current number, the study by the University of Toronto's Mowat Centre for Policy Innovation.

The best location for a new team would be in Ontario's Greater Golden Horseshoe, a market of nine million that could support three teams, it said.

There is another demand for a second team in both Vancouver and Montreal, as well as Winnipeg and Quebec City, it found. Any of those locations would be likely to generate higher gate revenues than existing U.S. teams, it said.

The study blamed the structure of the NHL for distorting the market, restricting the number of teams and controlling where they play. The lack of supply has meant that cities have been forced to compete for the right to host a team, with many U.S. cities using taxpayer funds to help secure the rights to the sport. That's a practice that is uncommon here in Canada, it said.

If such subsidies were removed, the teams would move to where the demand was greatest and that is north of the border, the study found.

Canadians outside of Quebec were about 40 times more likely than Americans to have been watching a national broadcast of NHL hockey during the week of April 26, with the audience in Quebec likely to have been 90 times bigger, it found.

The study also found hockey mad Canadians are also helping to subsidize the sport south of the border. Canadian teams accounts for only one fifth of the league, but generate one third of the revenue.

"A good chunk of those dollars end up in the U.S. through revenue sharing," it said. "The primary beneficiaries of this scheme are American hockey team owners and a smattering of American fans attending games below cost. The primary victims are Canadian hockey fans, particularly those in cities that could support a team but are deprived from having one or two by the NHL."

 

[Soundwave]

Any population center in Canada of over 500,000 probably could support an NHL team fairly easily. Finding 18,000 people who are willing to pay to watch NHL hockey in a Canadian market of 500k+ is easy as cake.

The NBA and MLB are only present in Toronto and there is no NFL here. So there's that too ... the NHL is the only game in town in a lot of markets.

On top of the fact that hockey is a religion and I think in a way Canada's love for hockey has grown even stronger (if possible) since the 90s, because back then I think people took NHL hockey for granted.

After losing the Nordiques and Jets and very nearly losing the Oilers and Flames too ... I think a lot of people in Canada realized that NHL hockey isn't to be taken for granted.

Hence you have situations like the last place Oilers are sold out every night. No one wants to give up their season tickets because they know they won't get them back in 2 years.

 

[Prussian_Blue]

I dont think two Hockey teams and one Basketball team could work in the same arena, but I suppose anything is possible.

In the US, no.

In Canada, why not?

I understand the three GTA teams thing, but could Ontario really support 6 teams?

Ottawa
Toronto
SW Ontario
Toronto North
Buffalo
Detroit

that's a lot of hockey for 9 million people

How do you figure Ontario "supports" Buffalo and Detroit?

Do you honestly believe that the vast majority of both Sabres' and Wings' fans do not come from the US side of those metro areas?

??????

The NFL would be a distant #2 to hockey in Toronto - or any Canadian city.

Number two, perhaps, but you're seriously underestimating the reach, and the appeal, of the NFL to state that a Toronto franchise would be a "distant #2" to the Leafs.

Perhaps at first, but by the time the NFL marketing machine got fully rolling in TO, the Toronto Whatevers would be a big hit.

Don't form your opinion on one game played in TO by an NFL team that hasn't been a serious contender for over a decade.

 

[karnige]

of course it can. with the way the dollar is now in canada and the fact the nhl is more fan based profit it would work 100%. plus these canadian markets would still get sponsership. hell if florida has to resort to renaming the rink for extra $$$ i'm positive it would work in canada (12 teams).

 

[Roughneck]

Well your agrument isn't that comparable

Chicago has had 2 baseball teams for over a century ,,, This is generations of fans and families

Just putting another team in Toronto isn't a sure success ,, Why would lifelong leaf fans start cheering for another team?

I would have loved to see the "Glasgow derby" type atmosphere of a Catholic-Irish based Toronto St. Pats against the protestant Upper Canadian Smyth-founded Leafs could have produced as well as the Anglo-Franco Maroons-Canadiens rivalry. New teams there now would basically be the Clippers and Lakers, what's the point?

While both cities could undoubtedly support another team, it wouldn't really be the same as having a storied franchise. Over time new fans would evolve and be born but it would be a slow go and pretty much why downtown Toronto isn't really a good place for another team but another area of southern Ontario would be able to transform fans to their (more) local team quicker.



So while the study is probably right that the tools are in place to support 6 more teams, that doesn't mean that Canada should support 6 more teams. One in southern Ontario (not Toronto), Winnipeg and Quebec. Easy.

 

[karnige]

Already refuted by Damien Cox. Seriously, a second team in Vancouver?

why not? have you tried getting tickets to a canucks game? most expensive worst seats in the league at 88 bucks a pop. most consecutive sellouts by a country mile. 7-8 year waiting list for season tickets. (may be higher or lower at the time i heard it was a few years ago). they could support another team.

 

[RogerRoeper*]

I'm Canadian but this is a joke. 12 teams?

 

[edog37]

Number two, perhaps, but you're seriously underestimating the reach, and the appeal, of the NFL to state that a Toronto franchise would be a "distant #2" to the Leafs.

Perhaps at first, but by the time the NFL marketing machine got fully rolling in TO, the Toronto Whatevers would be a big hit.

Don't form your opinion on one game played in TO by an NFL team that hasn't been a serious contender for over a decade.

the NFL would be a #2 in Toronto, but if that Toronto team won the Super Bowl & the Laffs continued to suck, that gap would close significantly....

 

[fsanford]

I am sure the Canucks and Habs would love a 2nd team in their market siphoning away
merchandise sales..

 

[JohnLennon]

"Canadians outside of Quebec were about 40 times more likely than Americans to have been watching a national broadcast of NHL hockey during the week of April 26, with the audience in Quebec likely to have been 90 times bigger, it found."

Holy. Crap.

 

[GM17*]

Until they start losing.

I'm all for more teams here, but 12 is a bit much yeh.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Does it say exact cities?

I'm having a bit of trouble finding 6 other markets.

Winnipeg, Quebec City, Vaughn, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, where else?

 

[1989]

Well, as I see it, it just means that the big franchises that get an "area" of Canada all to themselves (Leafs usually get Manitoba's fans and Montreal gets New Brunswick and stuff like that I've heard) are split into smaller regional fan bases. New teams in new areas would probably get good support.

Put a team in Saskatchewan. The Roughriders get all the sports exopsure there alone - seeing an NHL franchise there would give them an INSANELY strong fanbase IMO.
Team in Manitoba, definitely possible. Team in Nova Scotia or something, again, possible. Yes, you're redefining divisions. Yes, time zones will always be an issue. If that's going to be the case though, why not just place a team there with a strong fan base anyways.

Don't know if I care to argue about relocating American teams though. And also, 12 is a bit too much.. I think Canada can legitimately field 9 teams (the ones I listed), and maybe 1 more in the Quebec area.

 

[Oscar Acosta]

2 in Toronto
2 in Montreal
Quebec City
Winnipeg
Hamilton

Easily 5 more.