Prospect Info: Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking #11 - Tie Breaker

[devbouz12]

Who do you like better, the meh prospect or meh roster player from the Karlsson trade?

Safe to say you voted for the meh prospect, seeing as you mention him in your username...

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

To me we see Tierney close to what his upside is.. and we see a pretty raw prospect in Balcers... Do you project Balcers to improve and develop enough to be a better player than Tierney. At the risk of having another hot take of the year according to one of Balcers' strongest supporters from the home country.. I think its more likely Balcers does not reach that. Many others (28/43) as of now imagine that he will be better.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Safe to say you voted for the meh prospect, seeing as you mention him in your username...

Never assume, makes an ass of u and me (there's a way to check)

 

[Xspyrit]

No, it means we don't know which one of those guys will be better. Do I think someone from that group emerges as a legitimate top-six option? Of course. Do I think some of those guys will completely bust? Obviously.

Micklebot put it best in the other thread, it essentially boils down to Chris Tierney (50 point, decent middle-six type) vs the field (many prospects with okay ceilings, low floors and tons of question marks). Ask me to pick Tierney vs the field and I'm taking the field, ask me to pick Tierney vs any of those guys specifically and it's hard to figure out exactly which one ends up better.

I definitely think one of those guys ends up better (maybe significantly) better than Tierney, but as of now there's nothing to separate them from the pack.

*Duclair is an entirely different case than the other prospects, as he's obviously flashed at the NHL level. Personally, I'm scared off by the 4 organizations in 2 years and his reported attitude/commitment issues. If he's figured those out he absolutely deserves to go ahead of Tierney, but that can be said for a few of the other guys in the top-10 as well.

Of course we don't know but that's the point of scouting... you never know how things will turn out, it's not an exact science. Do you think scouts at the table say "we don't know who will turn out the best between those 5 guys, so let's roll the dice and choose randomly"? No, they make a decision based on the consensus among them. Or do you think they go "ok since we don't know who will be the best between these 5 guys, let's take this guy who is much farther down our list but is almost guaranteed to become a good grinder"? It could happen, but that would mean that the faith level in the guys they would pass on is not very high...

So the question is :

Who do YOU think emerges as a legitimate top-six option and ends up better than Tierney? Then, we have a CONSENSUS.

If you have zero "faith" in Abramov for example, then don't touch him until later down the list. It's based on everything, like I was talking in post #40 from the other thread; but if you vote Tierney, it means that all the guys remaining (who have better ability/potential than Tierney) have a very small likelihood of reaching potential in your eyes.

And that's the thing too, you refer to Tierney as a "50 point, decent middle-six type" but 50 points is top-6 forward production. Do you think Tierney will constantly put those numbers? If you think that Tierney is a (almost) "guaranteed" 45-55 pts forward with a good overall game going forward, then I understand completely voting for him. Personally, I just don't see that. And that is why I'm voting a few guys before Tierney, I have some faith in Balcers and Duclair for example, even if there is still a "bust" factor. Duclair could be on his way to finally establish himself, but he could also disappear like he did before. No one has a crystal ball so you have to project and take chances. Personally, I much prefer doing that take the boring non-balls safe conservative choice

 

[stempniaksen]

but if you vote Tierney, it means that all the guys remaining (who have better ability/potential than Tierney) have a very small likelihood of reaching potential in your eyes.

Bingo, this is pretty much my reasoning.

Different strokes for different folks, I'm not trying to crap on you for voting strictly (mostly?) based on upside. Just defending my (and a few others) stance on taking "likelihood to reach that potential" into consideration. I mean, there are guys left that I feel like have higher upside than Formenton, but that doesn't make them better prospect (just to give a non-Tierney example).

 

[Xspyrit]

Uhhh, when are people going to start voting for a goalie. Hogberg is really starting to come into his own, and we also have Gustavsson waiting in the wings. I think one of goalies should have been in the top ten.

Hogberg turns 25 y/o this year and has a career 0.907 SV% in the AHL with a 24-22-9 record. Let's not talk about his NHL stats, small sample size but it's not pretty. I like him, we like him, it looks like he's finally figuring out NA pro hockey (and plays in front of a very good team now) but he still has a lot to prove to show that he can play in the NHL and be at least at Nilsson level. Maybe has a chance to become a NHL back-up with a small chance at starter. Should he be voted above guys who have top-4 and top-9 potential (with decent likelihood of reaching)?

Shouldn't the creator of these polls not be able to vote? Also is there a threshold you need to win by to move onto the next player? cause Tierney got more votes

lol and why exactly? My single vote is changing everything? Are we not in a democracy?

And this went to a tie-breaker because :

Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking #7

It's not MY doing, if you were wondering.

That's your opinion. There isn't a prospect left on that list who is a guaranteed 40-50pt nhl player who can play in different situations.

Additionally Tierney is turning 25 this year so he probably shouldn't even be in this poll cause people can't differentiate between proven talent vs potentially that easily

Of course, prospects are never guaranteed of anything. So why are Batherson, Brannstrom, Brown, Norris, Formenton, JBD and even Wolanin all voted above Tierney? I don't understand...

As for the proven comment, you should read what I wrote at the end of this post
This debate is getting funny

It was a brutal take, highly questionable if Balcers wins this poll. Tierney will probalby play atleast double maybe triple the amount of NHL games Balcers will play. It appears that its very hard for people to distinguish a players ability to play both sides of the puck. Or that a proven track record actually means something.

lol Tierney is nothing special in that regard. Name me one thing he does above NHL average? Hockey sense is the only thing I see. I haven't watch all Sens hockey this year because of general apathy but my scouting report on Tierney isn't glowing, plus he has poor advanced stats. He's a decent little player you want to have as your 8th/9th best forward, not in the top-6 (5th highest TOI/GP among forwards this season and 3 of them are now gone). I see this season as his career season offensively, like Smith when he scored 25 goals.

Well thats why they were voted ahead of Tierney. I find it strange how everyone seems to think that only the prospects currently in the organization and the players on this current team are all going to get chances to play and score at the NHL level. The sens are going to be adding more and more players through the draft, trades free agency etc. If a player doesnt solidify their place in the lineup soon they will be moved along they need to show they are elite players and to carve out a role. Tierney has essentially already done that and has the trust of the management group and his coachs, not many others on this list can say the same.

I could say the same about Borowiecki, Smith, Ceci, etc but they get constantly lambasted here. It will be the same eventually for Tierney when he gets a little bit older and gets played too much (outside of the comfort zone he should be in). That is IF the Sens decide he's part of the core going forward.

To me we see Tierney close to what his upside is.. and we see a pretty raw prospect in Balcers... Do you project Balcers to improve and develop enough to be a better player than Tierney. At the risk of having another hot take of the year according to one of Balcers' strongest supporters from the home country.. I think its more likely Balcers does not reach that. Many others (28/43) as of now imagine that he will be better.

Well, somebody gets it. It's a simple question, really.

The question of the poll is NOT "who is the most proven at the NHL level?"

 

[Xspyrit]

Bingo, this is pretty much my reasoning.

Different strokes for different folks, I'm not trying to crap on you for voting strictly (mostly?) based on upside. Just defending my (and a few others) stance on taking "likelihood to reach that potential" into consideration. I mean, there are guys left that I feel like have higher upside than Formenton, but that doesn't make them better prospect (just to give a non-Tierney example).

If your reasoning is really "don't see any of these guys reaching their potential, maybe 1 or 2 could surprise but no idea who" then I have no problem with Tierney votes.

And well, if you think that I am voting "strictly (mostly?) based on upside", then you have not been attentive enough. My process is a bit more sophisticated than you are assuming. May I refer you to this post again :

Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking #11

I'm certainly considering "likelihood to reach that potential" but it's not THE factor like some seem to have. But in the end it's not that complicated, it's a formula of natural ability vs likelihood of reaching that potential.

For the record, I'm not convinced that Tierney is LIKELY to reach his current peak again. Like I said a few times already, it's like thinking Smith was a 25 goals scorer going forward because of that 2015-16 season. There's many examples, did you think that Nick Foligno was going to be a 1st line forward after he put 73 pts in 2014-15?

So, there's some who seem to think that Tierney is a guaranteed 50 point 2-way forward and is almost developing into another Turris. So it's safe and "likely" that he continues to do that, but at the same time are "scared" of selecting players with more natural ability in their little index because it's not guaranteed that they reach their potential? Then why the hell have they voted for Batherson, Norris, Formenton, etc before Tierney??? No guarantee there too and how much better their "likelihood to reach that potential" is compared to Duclair, Balcers, Abramov, Chlapik and Veronneau? All players have a different "bust factor" attached to them. Abramov might be the more risky in that range.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

To me we see Tierney close to what his upside is.. and we see a pretty raw prospect in Balcers... Do you project Balcers to improve and develop enough to be a better player than Tierney. At the risk of having another hot take of the year according to one of Balcers' strongest supporters from the home country.. I think its more likely Balcers does not reach that. Many others (28/43) as of now imagine that he will be better.

Balcers is arguably already better than Tierney. He's already a much better skater and goal scorer.

 

[bert]

lol Tierney is nothing special in that regard. Name me one thing he does above NHL average? Hockey sense is the only thing I see. I haven't watch all Sens hockey this year because of general apathy but my scouting report on Tierney isn't glowing, plus he has poor advanced stats. He's a decent little player you want to have as your 8th/9th best forward, not in the top-6 (5th highest TOI/GP among forwards this season and 3 of them are now gone). I see this season as his career season offensively, like Smith when he scored 25 goals.



I could say the same about Borowiecki, Smith, Ceci, etc but they get constantly lambasted here. It will be the same eventually for Tierney when he gets a little bit older and gets played too much (outside of the comfort zone he should be in). That is IF the Sens decide he's part of the core going forward.



Well, somebody gets it. It's a simple question, really.

The question of the poll is NOT "who is the most proven at the NHL level?"

Well I guess you need to watch more of the games by the sounds of it to me. You even admitted to not watching the player much and followed to give an innacurate scouting report. Being above average from a hockey sense perspective at 24 years old is pretty damn good. Means he is a very versitile player that can play in any situation. Wing, center, pk, pp he has done it all this year. That is a usefull player, he has been excellent on the pk in the second half and he is over 50% in the faceoff dot which he likely improves at so he doesnt hurt you in that regard. He also has playoff experience and got to be in a locker room with proven pros in San Jose. He is a good player to have around his teamates and by all accounts is very well liked.

If you think its a comparable situation to Boro Smith and Ceci then I think ill have to go back to my first point. You need to watch him more.

I understand that the poll is not who is the most proven player at the NHL level. Its who I think will be the best, I dont see Balcers being a regular NHL player. He is not strong from a defensive stand point, he loses lots of puck battles and hasnt shown me elite top 6 offensive talent. Thats what he is, either a top 6 player or he likely isnt going to stick in an NHL lineup. So for me this was a very easy decision Tierney is a versitile effective player that can play against other teams better players. The sens have very few of these types at this point.

 

[bert]

Balcers is arguably already better than Tierney. He's already a much better skater and goal scorer.

Its not arguable at all unless you cant identify anything but individual skill. He is definitely not a 'much better skater'.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Its not arguable at all unless you cant identify anything but individual skill. He is definitely not a 'much better skater'.

He certainly is. Tierney is a very poor skater and Balcers is plus.

 

[bert]

He certainly is. Tierney is a very poor skater and Balcers is plus.

You're lost on this one. There is a small argument to be made that Balcers could end up being a better hockey player but to even try and suggest he is right now shows you really have a hard time identifying anything more than just flash and dangle.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

You're lost on this one. There is a small argument to be made that Balcers could end up being a better hockey player but to even try and suggest he is right now shows you really have a hard time identifying anything more than just flash and dangle.

Why? Like I said, he's a better goal scorer, the thing you actually have to do in a hockey game better than your opponent. He's also a better skater. He's more useful because of that.

 

[bert]

Why? Like I said, he's a better goal scorer, the thing you actually have to do in a hockey game better than your opponent. He's also a better skater. He's more useful because of that.

The bolded portion really shows how much thought you put into evaluating a player. No point in continuing this discussion we wont agree.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You're lost on this one. There is a small argument to be made that Balcers could end up being a better hockey player but to even try and suggest he is right now shows you really have a hard time identifying anything more than just flash and dangle.

I agree. FQL no like Tierney; fair enough. I am just not as hopefule for Balcers as many are here. I like his shot . He shows off some nice mitts periodically. He hustles. Tierney is inconsistent and he can look lazy at times. Overall though I think Tierney thinks the game well and he is great on draws. ... To me its like comparing a 3C that has established himself in that role ; that can win key faceoffs for you and a player that could easily be pushed down the lineup behind Tkachuk and Formenton on the left side and has not really done enough to cement any kind of top 9 spot. He strikes me as a fringe player. Like Puempel. Been wrong before he could flip a switch I suppose.

 

[Cosmix]

He's pretty bad. Bad at shooting. Bad at skating. Bad at playing any kind of defense that doesnt involve taking faceoffs.

All he brings to the table is scoring and he doesn't do that well. This guy is epidemi of a tweener and will be 25 in a few months. Any player who you feel has a shot at being a top 6 guy should be selected before Tierney. He's just a guy collecting points on terrible team. Roster filler. Completely unremarkable and replaceable. The best comparison I can think of for him is Tyler Arnason.

Having Tierney over Duclair is lunacy.

Hogwash! Tierney is better than Arnason!

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

The bolded portion really shows how much thought you put into evaluating a player. No point in continuing this discussion we wont agree.

Why? Give me a reason. We see Balcers routinely beat guys with his legs. He creates separation. You will almost never see that from Tierney. D men often will turn and catch up to him.

This isn't hard to see.

As for goal scoring, easy to see Balcers is better just by their numbers. Tierney was never a great junior scorer and hasn't been at the NHL level either. 10.8 career s% for Tierney, 8.3 this year for a miserable 9 goals for. For comparison zack Smith is at 8.2 with 8 goals scored. So, he's as good as Zack Smith.

Balcers is shooting 11.4 and has 5 goals in less than half the games and nearly 3 whole minutes less per game of ice time. 15 goals in the AHL in only 38 games. Led his AHL team in goals by 8 last season as rookie.

Its not even close.

 

[bert]

Why? Give me a reason. We see Balcers routinely beat guys with his legs. He creates separation. You will almost never see that from Tierney. D men often will turn and catch up to him.

This isn't hard to see.

As for goal scoring, easy to see Balcers is better just by their numbers. Tierney was never a great junior scorer and hasn't been at the NHL level either. 10.8 career s% for Tierney, 8.3 this year for a miserable 9 goals for. For comparison zack Smith is at 8.2 with 8 goals scored. So, he's as good as Zack Smith.

Balcers is shooting 11.4 and has 5 goals in less than half the games and nearly 3 whole minutes less per game of ice time. 15 goals in the AHL in only 38 games. Led his AHL team in goals by 8 last season as rookie.

Its not even close.

You know that people can simply look these things up. Tierney outscored Balcers in each of their best seasons in Jr (40 goals 89 points) vs (40 goals 77 points) and the WHL is a higher scoring league. Tierney is currently outscoring Balcers badly in the NHL, he is scoring at a .61 ppg while Balcers is .39. You are trying to push an agenda, while making false claims on stats then cherry picking goal scoring when Tierney is a primarily a playmaker.

Again we dissagree leave it at that. You like flashy players we get it. You're not into things like real production, defensive awareness etc.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

You know that people can simply look these things up. Tierney outscored Balcers in each of their best seasons in Jr (40 goals 89 points) vs (40 goals 77 points) and the WHL is a higher scoring league. Tierney is currently outscoring Balcers badly in the NHL, he is scoring at a .61 ppg while Balcers is .39. You are trying to push an agenda, while making false claims on stats then cherry picking goal scoring when Tierney is a primarily a playmaker.

Again we dissagree leave it at that. You like flashy players we get it. You're not into things like real production, defensive awareness etc.

I dunno if you can say its cherry picked when I'm specifically talking about goal scoring. If you could guide me to the false claim, I'd appreciate it.

But you seem to disagree with the numbers. I'll assume you just think Tierney is a better skater and goal scorer. Why? We don't really know.

Edit: oh wow, you think Tierney has good defensive awareness... I don't really know what to say about that haha. We better stop. I don't think you've seen this guy play.

 

[aragorn]

I see Balcers & Abramov as good young skilled career AHLers who do spot duty in the NHL from time to time at best. Balcers is on the worse team in the NHL right now & is barely noticeable most nights unless he scores or sets up a goal, otherwise he's invisible. IMO Ottawa has many other better options who can contribute much more consistently & bring much more to the team. I thought the same of Perron, Dahlen, Sorenson, Locke, Da Costa, Dido, Prince, Connacher & a bunch of others. Pageau I was completely wrong about, he is a guy that plays much bigger than he physically is.

 

[bert]

I dunno if you can say its cherry picked when I'm specifically talking about goal scoring. If you could guide me to the false claim, I'd appreciate it.

But you seem to disagree with the numbers. I'll assume you just think Tierney is a better skater and goal scorer. Why? We don't really know.

Edit: oh wow, you think Tierney has good defensive awareness... I don't really know what to say about that haha. We better stop. I don't think you've seen this guy play.

Are you kidding me? You just said that Balcers was a better jr scorer.... That is your false claim.

I didnt say Tierney was a better goal scorer, I think their skating is comparable.

Tierney is a strong two way player, he is playing on the PK quite effectively while taking matchups against the other teams top 6, are Balcers or Duclair?.... I guess you are able to identify defensive awareness better than Boucher, Deboer and Marc Crawford too.

Your takes are consistently innacurate and this thread is a terrific example of it.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Are you kidding me? You just said that Balcers was a better jr scorer.... That is your false claim.

No, that is you misrepresenting what I said. I said Tierney wasn't a great junior scorer. 11 goals in his draft year. 18 d+1. 40 d+2.

Balcers only played one year of junior in his first year in North America, so I didn't bother comparing their numbers, I was only showing Tierney has never shown a knack for scoring, whereas Balcers has been in the past few years in the AHL, the NHL and internationally.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. You think Tierney has a great two way game. We're not even watching the same player. You're either very confused or making stuff up.

 

[bert]

No, that is you misrepresenting what I said. I said Tierney wasn't a great junior scorer. 11 goals in his draft year. 18 d+1. 40 d+2.

Balcers only played one year of junior in his first year in North America, so I didn't bother comparing their numbers, I was only showing Tierney has never shown a knack for scoring, whereas Balcers has been in the past few years in the AHL, the NHL and internationally.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. You think Tierney has a great two way game. We're not even watching the same player. You're either very confused or making stuff up.

Lol you are unbelievable. They were both 19 in the years I compared their jr stats. I am neither confused or making things up you are the one denying facts that have been presented in front of you and you dismiss them because its not convenient for your argument.

Ill ask you again do you feel more qualified than the sens current coaching staff, former coaching staff and the coaching staff of the San Jose Sharks? They all used Tierney in a pk and matchup role. I guess they arent watching the same player as you are or maybe we are all correct and you are the one this is wrong in this instance. Kindof like you were dead wrong about Tkachuk and many many other players over my time on this board. You also dont think Bobby Ryan is an NHL hockey player. You make up your mind about a player then choose to ignore all logic when its presented to you in an argument.

Then as I see in another thread you have the audacity to call everyone else stupid that doesnt agree with you.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Lol you are unbelievable. They were both 19 in the years I compared their jr stats. I am neither confused or making things up you are the one denying facts that have been presented in front of you and you dismiss them because its not convenient for your argument.

Ill ask you again do you feel more qualified than the sens current coaching staff, former coaching staff and the coaching staff of the San Jose Sharks? They all used Tierney in a pk and matchup role. I guess they arent watching the same player as you are or maybe we are all correct and you are the one this is wrong in this instance. Kindof like you were dead wrong about Tkachuk and many many other players over my time on this board. You also dont think Bobby Ryan is an NHL hockey player. You make up your mind about a player then choose to ignore all logic when its presented to you in an argument.

Then as I see in another thread you have the audacity to call everyone else stupid that doesnt agree with you.

The bolded is really what you wanna nitpick on? Lol

 

[bert]

The bolded is really what you wanna nitpick on? Lol

Its just another example of your ability to evaluate NHL hockey players.