UNB Varsity Reds Thread (Part 4)

[RED ARMY EAST]

And not to underrate the OUA teams that are left,Brock,York,McGill,Concordia.
McGill is an elite CIS program, that would be a tough opponent for any AUS/CanadaWest team, but the rest of the pack looks very capable of an upset! Concordia has looked very good against the Redmen and Brock beat out last years Queens Cup champs Saturday night.
With a win today, Concordia would advance and force the third place game to be played between McGill and York.
Any OUA opponent will be a challenge!

 

[Drummer]

I believe McGill will be the only real challenger and maybe York (who I believe will win the Bronze game). Brock was lucky to win game 3 (51 saves).

If UNB wins the AUS and remains #1 - they would play York in the first round.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

But like the last two years...might be better to go in #5 and get Brock (most likely) in the first round. Only issue with that is you are in the same bracket as Alberta.

 

[Drummer]

York might be playing well, but that's relative to the OUA. They finished T2 with a record of 17-10-1 (7 less wins than UNB) with GF/GA of 91/80 (1.14) vs UNB's 128/68 (1.88).

Concordia has better numbers with a record of 18-7-3 with a GF/GA of 111/83 (1.34)

GF - UNB is #2, CON is #7 and YRK is #19
GA - UNB is #4, CON is #14 and YRK is #12
PP - UNB is #17, CON is #24 and YRK is #26
PK - UNB is #3, CON is #19 and YRK is #2

Regardless, if UNB plays a full 60min, neither of these teams should win - especially playing UNB at the AUC as the home team.

If UNB is on the separate side, ALB most likely has to go through two tough AUS matches to reach the final - they may not get their and if they do - kudos to them

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Having said all this...worst case is UNB and McGill both lose...setting them up to face each other in the 4/5 game.

 

[Drummer]

Having said all this...worst case is UNB and McGill both lose...setting them up to face each other in the 4/5 game.

That would really through a wrench into the brackets - but possible.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

York or Concordia....any preference? I’m pulling for the Stingers.

 

[Rob]

York or Concordia....any preference? I’m pulling for the Stingers.

Well I'm glad it was the Stingers. Not because I think they'll be an easier opponent but because we get to see a new team added to the tournament.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Me too.

But I think their offensively-minded system will not only make for a fun game, but is a better match-up for UNB then the defensively-focused Lions.

Concordia reminds me a bit of Queen’s last year in that they primarily have a great first line and #1 defenseman, but UNB should be able to take advantage with their depth. Also the Stingers goaltending and defensive game isn’t quite as strong as the Gaels IMO.

 

[Rob]

So do winners of Thursday’s games meet each other for sure on Saturday or are the teams reseated again?

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

No reseeding...Thursday winners play in first semi on Saturday.

 

[Rob]

Would rather have played the winner of McGill vs Saskatchewan

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

It would have been the winner of Brock/Saskatchewan.

I dunno...I know we always fear X but UNB just spanked them twice. Plus, St. FX isn’t playing that great lately.

 

[AdamMcg83]

Me too.

But I think their offensively-minded system will not only make for a fun game, but is a better match-up for UNB then the defensively-focused Lions.

Concordia reminds me a bit of Queen’s last year in that they primarily have a great first line and #1 defenseman, but UNB should be able to take advantage with their depth. Also the Stingers goaltending and defensive game isn’t quite as strong as the Gaels IMO.

IMO, Concordia's ceiling is much higher than York's - on their best day, Concordia is absolutely on par with McGill. The difference is that their best days occurred less often than McGill's, and that's why Concordia is the OUA bronze medalist and not the OUA champ.

Having seen both York and Concordia this season (the former a few times), UNB fans would have been wise to root hard for the Lions in that OUA bronze game - the Stingers would have been a legit #3 seed, and were an OT winner away from sweeping McGill in the OUA East final. Not that it could have happened (since they're both AUS teams), but UNB would have been better off with Acadia in rd 1. This is a dangerous first-round match-up for the Reds.

 

[Drummer]

Game 1 - Preview (UNB vs Concordia)

Despite what some OUA fans are saying, I don't see this as a big challenge for UNB. I've heard these stories before about how dangerous a team can be, how fast their top line is, etc. In the end, UNB has 1 amazing line, 1 great line, 1 strong line and a 4th line that could be anyone else's 2nd.
Anything can happen, game 1 of UNB vs Ryerson at Christmas as an example, but this is 'go time' and UNB is ready. UNB is better in every category that counts and their counter attack and fore-check will be just too much for CON. Even if CON scores first (like Queen's did last year) I only see it delaying the inevitable.

GPG - UNB (3) vs CON (6)
GAA - UNB (2) vs CON (15)
PP% - UNB (17) vs CON (24)
PK% - UNB (3) vs CON (19)
Shots - UNB (1) vs CON (9)

Concordia knows what to expect - they have the same coach who visited two years ago (Christmas) when they lost 5-1 and 7-3 and 10 returning players (2xD, 7xF and Marchand, the backup goalie, but none of them are impact players on this team). Of the returning players, Hudon had the best trip with 4 assists on 4 goals.

Concordia will live or die on the success of Anthony Beauregard, but I think he will find there isn't a lot of time & space as there is when playing lesser teams compared to playing UNB. This will impact their timing and we'll see if they can adjust - I don't believe they will.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

While I am confident UNB will win...and more often than not they take care of business against these teams, you never know what can happen in one game. I’m sure none of us thought Calgary would take them to the last 4 seconds in 2011...or Western would beat them in 2012...even the game against a Cinderella Guelph team in 2015 was closer for most of the game than most thought. You can’t take anyone lightly at this stage.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Just read Bruce Hallihan’s article online on Matt Boudens (not sure if it is in today’s or tomorrow’s print edition)...he mentions that he will be back next year for his 5th year.

EDIT - Perhaps the Captain next year?

 

[Drummer]

... you never know what can happen in one game. I’m sure none of us thought Calgary would take them to the last 4 seconds in 2011...or Western would beat them in 2012...even the game against a Cinderella Guelph team in 2015 was closer for most of the game than most thought. You can’t take anyone lightly at this stage.

Since the loss to UWO in 2012, which was fortuities for them - but that's why we play the game, UNB is 5-0 vs OUA teams (2-0 vs OUA-E and 3-0 vs OUA-W) with a combined GF/GA of 29 to 9. D'Agostini played great for Guelph, but there was too much offence for him to deal with and I think that will be the same thing this time around for Concordia.

UNB's keys to success; play Anthony Beauregard tough, stay out of the box, fore check hard and get the early lead.

OUA-E: QU (5 - 1)
OUA-E: UWO (5-1)
OUA-W: GPH (5-2)
OUA-W:WIN (6-2)
OUA-E: UQT (8-3)

 

[AdamMcg83]

Since the loss to UWO in 2012, which was fortuities for them - but that's why we play the game, UNB is 5-0 vs OUA teams (2-0 vs OUA-E and 3-0 vs OUA-W) with a combined GF/GA of 29 to 9. D'Agostini played great for Guelph, but there was too much offence for him to deal with and I think that will be the same thing this time around for Concordia.

UNB's keys to success; play Anthony Beauregard tough, stay out of the box, fore check hard and get the early lead.

OUA-E: QU (5 - 1)
OUA-E: UWO (5-1)
OUA-W: GPH (5-2)
OUA-W:WIN (6-2)
OUA-E: UQT (8-3)

Having seen all the above teams, the only one I'd place on the same level as this Concordia team is the '13 Patriotes. UNB is absolutely the favourite, but here is what I believe:

- York would have been a much more significant underdog than Concordia.
- This year's Concordia team would be a significant favourite over last year's Queen's team.
- The 2018 Stingers are a much better team than the 2012 Mustangs.
- I'd slot a Concordia upset as the second-most likely upset of the first round (IMO, Acadia over Alberta and Brock over St FX would both be "bigger" upsets).

Again, UNB is the favourite, and with good reason - but make no mistake, this is a much tougher matchup for UNB than York would have been.

 

[cishockeyfan]

Sorry Adam but I dont understand your logic here. To say Acadia beating Alberta would be a bigger upset than Concordia beating UNB is quite the statement.

Acadia already beat Alberta last year in the exact same game of the tournament so Id hardly call that an upset if it happens again.

I give Concordia the same chance to beat UNB as any other OUA team from the past 10 to 15 years. Its possible but its not good. Maybe someone else has the record off hand but im positive UNB has lost one game to an oua opponent in the past 40 plus games againts the OUA and that was to western in 2012.

 

[RED ARMY EAST]

Having seen all the above teams, the only one I'd place on the same level as this Concordia team is the '13 Patriotes. UNB is absolutely the favourite, but here is what I believe:

- York would have been a much more significant underdog than Concordia.
- This year's Concordia team would be a significant favourite over last year's Queen's team.
- The 2018 Stingers are a much better team than the 2012 Mustangs.
- I'd slot a Concordia upset as the second-most likely upset of the first round (IMO, Acadia over Alberta and Brock over St FX would both be "bigger" upsets).

Again, UNB is the favourite, and with good reason - but make no mistake, this is a much tougher matchup for UNB than York would have been.

The biggest adjustment for Concordia will be handling the puck pressure from the V-Reds, playing without the puck and defending.

 

[AdamMcg83]

Sorry Adam but I dont understand your logic here. To say Acadia beating Alberta would be a bigger upset than Concordia beating UNB is quite the statement.

Acadia already beat Alberta last year in the exact same game of the tournament so Id hardly call that an upset if it happens again.

I give Concordia the same chance to beat UNB as any other OUA team from the past 10 to 15 years. Its possible but its not good. Maybe someone else has the record off hand but im positive UNB has lost one game to an oua opponent in the past 40 plus games againts the OUA and that was to western in 2012.

I'll concede that the Acadia-Alberta comparison might be a stretch. But what I'm suggesting is that Concordia's ceiling is, in my opinion, much higher than other OUA teams that have faced UNB in the recent past. For most of the season (and when healthy), Concordia and McGill were interchangeable. McGill is likely a tad deeper (which, as mentioned in this thread, could very well be the difference for UNB), but the ceiling of this Stingers team is basically McGill - and much higher than Brock, York, or even other OUA East powers in past seasons. A good reference point: think Carleton in 2016, with better goaltending.
I don't think UNB fans should be scared, I just think Concordia is a notch ahead of other OUA teams that have made the UCup recently.

 

[AUS Fan]

We'll find out in about 11 hours.

 

[AdamMcg83]

I'll concede that the Acadia-Alberta comparison might be a stretch. But what I'm suggesting is that Concordia's ceiling is, in my opinion, much higher than other OUA teams that have faced UNB in the recent past. For most of the season (and when healthy), Concordia and McGill were interchangeable. McGill is likely a tad deeper (which, as mentioned in this thread, could very well be the difference for UNB), but the ceiling of this Stingers team is basically McGill - and much higher than Brock, York, or even other OUA East powers in past seasons. A good reference point: think Carleton in 2016, with better goaltending.
I don't think UNB fans should be scared, I just think Concordia is a notch ahead of other OUA teams that have made the UCup recently.

First intermission update: this opinion is not aging well. Sounds like we got the Mr. Hyde version of the Stingers.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I think they just ran into a UNB team that is playing arguably their best hockey of the year.