GDT: UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2

[m9]

From the UFC's point of view, I'm starting to come around to this idea. I still don't like it, mind you, but I can see how it makes them the most money.

Looking around at the options, I don't know that I like any of them for Conor to be honest. Nate is probably his best bet, but I mean he squeaked out a win the last time, so it's not guaranteed he beats Nate. Why risk him losing just to pick up a win to put him in a title fight when you could just put him into a title fight? If I squint, I can kind of justify it since he has the win over Poirier all those years ago. Would not mind Poirier getting another big payday either.

Plus, even if he loses to Poirier again, Conor-Nate 3 still sells. If Conor fights Nate next and loses, there's not much left for him.

The one option that I haven't thought about until now is Oliveira. I don't think it's a big enough name, so I think it is unlikely, but I don't know how that fight would go. Oliveira is clearly a better all around fighter than Conor, but I don't know that his chin has been tested at LW. Oliveira might be the best bet for a one shot KO which might be Conor's best bet to pick up a win.

I look at Conor/Poirier 3 as a win for everyone. Obviously the UFC and Conor will cash big cheques, but they're all rich so who cares. It's far and away the biggest fight for Poirier, and that's great. For guys like Gaethje/Chandler/Oliveira.. they need to set themselves up as the next contender because you're either going to get a fight vs Conor or vs a guy in Poirier who will have bumped up a tier because of the Conor fight. It's that "high tide raises all boats" quote or whatever it is. Gaethje lost his last fight. Chandler beat Dan Hooker.. which is great, but it doesn't usually get you a title shot. Oliveira is the most deserving guy.

And yeah, that is exactly my thought on the Conor/Nate/Poirier thing. If Conor beats Poirier, you have a ton of possibilities. If he loses vs Poirier, you still have Nate. I guess if Conor lost to Nate and then Poirier lost to Chandler or someone, you can still do Conor/Poirier 3 but it would have so much less juice at that point.

Honestly outside of Poirier or Nate, the only other fight that I could see is Conor v RDA. I know it's a weird one but they were booked before so maybe Conor thinks there's some unfinished business there. It's a long-shot, but I think it's more likely than some of the other names thrown around.

 

[I am not exposed]

I look at Conor/Poirier 3 as a win for everyone. Obviously the UFC and Conor will cash big cheques, but they're all rich so who cares. It's far and away the biggest fight for Poirier, and that's great. For guys like Gaethje/Chandler/Oliveira.. they need to set themselves up as the next contender because you're either going to get a fight vs Conor or vs a guy in Poirier who will have bumped up a tier because of the Conor fight. It's that "high tide raises all boats" quote or whatever it is. Gaethje lost his last fight. Chandler beat Dan Hooker.. which is great, but it doesn't usually get you a title shot. Oliveira is the most deserving guy.

And yeah, that is exactly my thought on the Conor/Nate/Poirier thing. If Conor beats Poirier, you have a ton of possibilities. If he loses vs Poirier, you still have Nate. I guess if Conor lost to Nate and then Poirier lost to Chandler or someone, you can still do Conor/Poirier 3 but it would have so much less juice at that point.

Honestly outside of Poirier or Nate, the only other fight that I could see is Conor v RDA. I know it's a weird one but they were booked before so maybe Conor thinks there's some unfinished business there. It's a long-shot, but I think it's more likely than some of the other names thrown around.

Outside of people that hate Conor of course, and others who think it would be ridiculous he gets a title shot.

 

[Moncherry]

I'm not that interested in seeing it again, but Conor should go for the trilogy fight with Nate Diaz. They have unfinished business, it would be an easier way to get back in the win column and it would probably make more money.

 

[pistolpete11]

I look at Conor/Poirier 3 as a win for everyone. Obviously the UFC and Conor will cash big cheques, but they're all rich so who cares. It's far and away the biggest fight for Poirier, and that's great. For guys like Gaethje/Chandler/Oliveira.. they need to set themselves up as the next contender because you're either going to get a fight vs Conor or vs a guy in Poirier who will have bumped up a tier because of the Conor fight. It's that "high tide raises all boats" quote or whatever it is. Gaethje lost his last fight. Chandler beat Dan Hooker.. which is great, but it doesn't usually get you a title shot. Oliveira is the most deserving guy.

And yeah, that is exactly my thought on the Conor/Nate/Poirier thing. If Conor beats Poirier, you have a ton of possibilities. If he loses vs Poirier, you still have Nate. I guess if Conor lost to Nate and then Poirier lost to Chandler or someone, you can still do Conor/Poirier 3 but it would have so much less juice at that point.

Honestly outside of Poirier or Nate, the only other fight that I could see is Conor v RDA. I know it's a weird one but they were booked before so maybe Conor thinks there's some unfinished business there. It's a long-shot, but I think it's more likely than some of the other names thrown around.

From Gaethje/Chandler/Oliveira's point of view, it only benefits them if Conor wins the belt. I don't think there is a difference between Poirier now and if he were to beat Conor again. If there was a controversy or Poirier needed to show it wasn't a fluke or something, then sure, but it was a decisive win. If he were to beat him again, it would be hard to top this win, and I think people would think "Yeah, we already saw this."

But yeah, I've always thought Conor would save the Nate trilogy in his back pocket. I think that fight would always sell well (assuming it's not a Chuck-Tito 3 situation). I don't think Conor-Poirier 3 does particularly well unless there is a belt on the line. I mean, it's still Conor, so as long as he's got some juice left, it will sell fine, but it wouldn't be as big as it could be.

I think RDA is kind of in the same boat as Oliveira. You could make a case for it, but I don't know that he's a big enough name.

 

[pistolpete11]

FWIW, Tapology has UFC 257 at 1.6M PPV buys. Tied with Conor-Nate 2 and behind only Conor-Khabib.

According to their numbers, Conor now headlined the top 5 UFC events ever (Khabib, Nate 2, Poirier 2, Nate 1, and Cowboy) and 7 of the top 10 (adding Alvarez and Aldo). The other 3 were UFC 100, Usman-Masvidal, and Lesnar-Carwin.

Also, obviously Floyd-Conor, as well, which is only behind Floyd-Manny.

 

[m9]

From Gaethje/Chandler/Oliveira's point of view, it only benefits them if Conor wins the belt. I don't think there is a difference between Poirier now and if he were to beat Conor again. If there was a controversy or Poirier needed to show it wasn't a fluke or something, then sure, but it was a decisive win. If he were to beat him again, it would be hard to top this win, and I think people would think "Yeah, we already saw this."

But yeah, I've always thought Conor would save the Nate trilogy in his back pocket. I think that fight would always sell well (assuming it's not a Chuck-Tito 3 situation). I don't think Conor-Poirier 3 does particularly well unless there is a belt on the line. I mean, it's still Conor, so as long as he's got some juice left, it will sell fine, but it wouldn't be as big as it could be.

I think RDA is kind of in the same boat as Oliveira. You could make a case for it, but I don't know that he's a big enough name.

Conor/Poirier 3 will be a top 10 PPV, so it will still do quite well. Maybe even top 5. People love to see a comeback, and seeing that rematch with a belt on the line will be huge.

We'll see on Poirier. I think this win gave him a bump but if he beat Conor for the title it would be even bigger which makes fights against the others bigger.

 

[pistolpete11]

Conor/Poirier 3 will be a top 10 PPV, so it will still do quite well. Maybe even top 5. People love to see a comeback, and seeing that rematch with a belt on the line will be huge.

We'll see on Poirier. I think this win gave him a bump but if he beat Conor for the title it would be even bigger which makes fights against the others bigger.

If they did it now. If Conor lost to Nate and Poirier lost to Chandler/Oliveira/Gaethje, I'm not as confident in that.

 

[tacogeoff]

Nathan Diaz @NateDiaz209
U and Dp just got choked on ur face the other day by a guy that ran off and didn’t want none especially wit me , how u gonna fight for a title? I been here 14 years and no one can do me like that ever in life .. lol lightweight division


Ha. Nate always stirring the pot. I personally dont think conor should get a crack at a title shot after two straight loses. I understand he gets the pay per view numbers but he should need to pull out a win out against Justin or someone in the 2-5 rankings to get another shot.

 

[CDJ]

Nate is 1-1 in the last 5 years with his only win being against a declining PFL fighter, less talky more do-ey

I don’t think Conor will get the title shot, I bet we get DP-Chandler (or Oliveira if DP refuses chandler)

 

[Avs_19]

I don't mind the immediate rematch except for the fact that they're trying to make it for the belt and the UFC will probably give in and do it. In some cases you can talk yourself into these title fights that aren't deserved. Nick Diaz is a prime example when he got the title shot coming off of a loss to Condit. Hendricks deserved it at the time but everyone wanted to see Diaz fight GSP, it was supposed to happen once before but we never got it, the loss against Condit was very close, and no one else could really make a case at the time (besides Hendricks). In Conor's case there's no justification other than an effort to keep him happy and make the company money. He got KO'd by Poirier and was dominated in another recent title fight against Khabib.

I was completely against an immediate rematch after the first Conor/Nate fight too, especially at 170 lbs, but changed by stance pretty quickly after how good the rematch was. That probably plays a role in why I'm not against doing this one again immediately but the vacant belt just takes it too far when others are deserving. Oliveira and Chandler aren't without flaws and we can pick at their case for the title shot but it's certainly more deserved than Conor. The other part of it is that if Conor wins the trilogy, there's probably a better chance of him calling out Pacquiao than him fighting Oliveira/Chandler. I'm getting ahead of myself here but in that scenario there would then be another vacant or interim LW title.

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't mind the immediate rematch except for the fact that they're trying to make it for the belt and the UFC will probably give in and do it. In some cases you can talk yourself into these title fights that aren't deserved. Nick Diaz is a prime example when he got the title shot coming off of a loss to Condit. Hendricks deserved it at the time but everyone wanted to see Diaz fight GSP, it was supposed to happen once before but we never got it, the loss against Condit was very close, and no one else could really make a case at the time (besides Hendricks). In Conor's case there's no justification other than an effort to keep him happy and make the company money. He got KO'd by Poirier and was dominated in another recent title fight against Khabib.

I was completely against an immediate rematch after the first Conor/Nate fight too, especially at 170 lbs, but changed by stance pretty quickly after how good the rematch was. That probably plays a role in why I'm not against doing this one again immediately but the vacant belt just takes it too far when others are deserving. Oliveira and Chandler aren't without flaws and we can pick at their case for the title shot but it's certainly more deserved than Conor. The other part of it is that if Conor wins the trilogy, there's probably a better chance of him calling out Pacquiao than him fighting Oliveira/Chandler. I'm getting ahead of myself here but in that scenario there would then be another vacant or interim LW title.

Personally, I'm not against immediate rematches, but there needs to be some type of justification. For Conor-Nate, Conor was going up a weight class already and then up another weight class on short notice, he was busting Nate up, and he clearly got tired from the added weight. I've said it before, it's an excuse, but it's a valid excuse. I think going into the rematch, it was reasonable that Conor would be better after getting in a camp preparing to be at that weight. And he was. Whether you think he won or not (I do), there's no denying he was better.

There's got to be something like that or a bad decision or you just got caught and KO'ed with 1 punch. None of that happened in Poirier-Conor 2. That was a clean, decisive win for Poirier. We heard all during the lead up how dedicated Conor was and that he was in such good shape and all that happened was he got beat by the better fighter. The only shred of justification in my mind is that Conor has a win over him. It's pretty weak given that it was in a different weight class, a long time ago, and they are both different fights now, but it's something.

I too would worry about him running off to fight Manny.

 

[Perennial]

Nate is 1-1 in the last 5 years with his only win being against a declining PFL fighter, less talky more do-ey

I don’t think Conor will get the title shot, I bet we get DP-Chandler (or Oliveira if DP refuses chandler)

Poirier isn't really in a position to refuse though...

Dana: Hey Dustin, here's the contract to fight Chandler for the belt

Poirier: I'm not signing it

Dana: Hey Oliveira, here's the contract to fight Chandler for the belt

 

[Avs_19]

Poirier isn't really in a position to refuse though...

Dana: Hey Dustin, here's the contract to fight Chandler for the belt

Poirier: I'm not signing it

Dana: Hey Oliveira, here's the contract to fight Chandler for the belt

According to Helwani, that might be the reason they're in this position to begin with. They wouldn't pay Poirier what he wanted so he refused to sign the Ferguson contract. Chandler agreed to step in instead and then agreed to be the back up to Khabib/Gaethje. Poirier feels Chandler undercut any leverage he may have had and now might be holding that against him by refusing to give him this opportunity.

 

[Perennial]

According to Helwani, that might be the reason they're in this position to begin with. They wouldn't pay Poirier what he wanted so he refused to sign the Ferguson contract. Chandler agreed to step in instead and then agreed to be the back up to Khabib/Gaethje. Poirier feels Chandler undercut any leverage he may have had and now might be holding that against him by refusing to give him this opportunity.

It's not Poirier's opportunity to give...

 

[Avs_19]

It's not Poirier's opportunity to give...

True but he's also the guy who most believe has to be in the vacant title fight. There are different opinions on who else should be in there whether it's Oliveira, Chandler, or even Conor but Poirier is the one constant because he's the best and most deserving LW with Khabib gone.

 

[crazychimp]

Poirer probably feels like the champ right now with Khabib retired, wins over McGregor, Gaethje, Alvarez, Holloway x2 and Hooker quite the resume. This is why hes going for another money fight with Diaz or a trilogy with McGregor which will make him more $$$ than a title fight.

Oliveira vs Gaethje or Chandler winner should face Poirer for the belt.

 

[Perennial]

True but he's also the guy who most believe has to be in the vacant title fight. There are different opinions on who else should be in there whether it's Oliveira, Chandler, or even Conor but Poirier is the one constant because he's the best and most deserving LW with Khabib gone.

The idea that Poirier will only fight for the vacant belt if he gets to choose his opponent is absurd

Dana just has to say "We offered Poirier a title fight against Chandler, he turned it down"

At that point, nobody will care that he's not fighting for the belt...

 

[m9]

Yeah, the UFC will have no problem moving on from Poirier. Poirier also ditched Ferguson as soon as the Conor fight came around, so him judging Chandler for what he did seems a little much.

 

[CDJ]

I think the UFC has enough respect for the guy that they’ll let him pick a guy like Oliveira who is clearly more deserving than a guy with 1 win. It’s not like Chandler is a big draw, I don’t think Poirier vs Chandler does THAT much more than Oliveira. The ppv #’s will be reliant on some strong underneath fights either way

Now of course they aren’t obligated to give Dustin a shot but I don’t think they want to piss off Poirier. I think they regret not capitalizing on Nate after his Conor win and won’t make the mistake a second time.

 

[pistolpete11]

Poirier is the uncrowned champ, but all that means is he's not the champ. He can't over play his hand here. I think they should and do want him fighting for the belt next and maybe they don't really care who the opponent it and will let him pick, but if they do, it's going to be that guy.

I don't totally understand Poirier's stance on Chandler, but it might just be negotiation, so I won't bury him for it. If we end up getting a Chandler-Oliveira fight for the title and Poirier doesn't fight for a year or something, I'll be disappointed. But let's see what they do.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Nate is 1-1 in the last 5 years with his only win being against a declining PFL fighter, less talky more do-ey

I don’t think Conor will get the title shot, I bet we get DP-Chandler (or Oliveira if DP refuses chandler)

Don’t get how people keep putting chandlers name in this one...he’s beaten Hooker...that in itself is not worth a title shot...make no mistake Dan Hooker is an extremely talented fighter but Chandler has to beat a Gaethje or an Oliveira or even a Connor in order to even be in the conversation

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Poirier is the uncrowned champ, but all that means is he's not the champ. He can't over play his hand here. I think they should and do want him fighting for the belt next and maybe they don't really care who the opponent it and will let him pick, but if they do, it's going to be that guy.

I don't totally understand Poirier's stance on Chandler, but it might just be negotiation, so I won't bury him for it. If we end up getting a Chandler-Oliveira fight for the title and Poirier doesn't fight for a year or something, I'll be disappointed. But let's see what they do.

Chandler Oliveira for a title...yeah no Chandler has more work to do...beating Dan Hooker though impressive does not put your name into title contention lol he’s gotta beat a Gaethje, Conor or one of these guys before his name should even be spoken about in terms of a title shot...and I think Chandler is a great fighter but come on 1 UFC win vs Dan Hooker and he deserves a title shot...yeah no

 

[CDJ]

Don’t get how people keep putting chandlers name in this one...he’s beaten Hooker...that in itself is not worth a title shot...make no mistake Dan Hooker is an extremely talented fighter but Chandler has to beat a Gaethje or an Oliveira or even a Connor in order to even be in the conversation

Don’t get me wrong- I agree that he hasn’t *earned* it. He is just hot in the streets and earning it matters very little to Dana if he thinks he could make more money with Chandler vs DP than Oliveira vs DP

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Don’t get me wrong- I agree that he hasn’t *earned* it. He is just hot in the streets and earning it matters very little to Dana if he thinks he could make more money with Chandler vs DP than Oliveira vs DP

I think Poitier would wipe the floor with Oliveira...he’s GREAT on the ground but DP is no Tony Ferguson with no disrespect meant to Ferguson Poirier is just on another level right now

 

[CDJ]

I think Poitier would wipe the floor with Oliveira...he’s GREAT on the ground but DP is no Tony Ferguson with no disrespect meant to Ferguson Poirier is just on another level right now

I totally agree