GDT: UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal

[Avs_19]

Date: July 11, 2020
Venue: UFC Fight Island, Yas Island
City: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Welterweight Championship bout: Kamaru Usman (c) vs. Jorge Masvidal
Featherweight Championship bout: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Max Holloway
Bantamweight Championship bout: Petr Yan vs. José Aldo
Women's Strawweight bout: Jéssica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas
Women's Flyweight bout: Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, TSN)

Light Heavyweight bout: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Jiří Procházka
Welterweight bout: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov
Featherweight bout: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Danny Henry
Lightweight bout: Leonardo Santos vs. Roman Bogatov

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, UFC Fight Pass)

Heavyweight bout: Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishin
Flyweight bout: Raulian Paiva vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Women's Bantamweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo
Bantamweight bout: Davey Grant vs. Martin Day​

Click to read more...

 

[pistolpete11]

Usman-Masvidal : I've said a lot about Usman-Masvidal in the other thread, so the only thing I'll say here is that Masvidal has got to be happy they are going to Abu Dhabi instead of the Apex. The smaller cage would make it easier for Usman to pin him against the cage which I expect will be his strategy anyway.

Volkanovski-Max : I expect Max is going to come out more aggressive this time around. He usually builds as the fight goes on, but being in there for 5 rounds with him already, I think he'll already have somewhat of a read on Volkanovski. I think Max needs to do that, too. Can't be giving away rounds. I think it will be relatively close again. Maybe Max makes some adjustments, but I've been losing faith in volume strikers, so I'd go with Volkanovski. Max also said he hasn't done any sparring leading up to this fight. Not sure that's a good thing against a guy like Volkanovski, but who knows, maybe Max was sparring too much before.

Yan-Aldo : Yan is really good, but I'm not sure I've completely bought in on him yet. Dodson and Rivera are solid enough wins, but the fight that got him a title shot is 40 year old Faber? Aldo is no spring chicken in fight years, but he's still only lost to cream of the crop FW and a split decision against arguably the best BW in the division right now which some argue he should have won. If I had to pick a dog, I'd probably take Aldo mainly because of the unknown with Yan. I wouldn't feel good about it, though.

Rose-Andrade : Gotta go with Rose. That first fight wasn't even close until she got dropped on her head. Plus she'll only have to avoid something like that for 3 rounds this time.

Ribas-PVZ : Paige is a tough girl, but I just think Ribas is better, more active, and more focused on fighting. PVZ also has the added pressure of this being her last fight on her contract. Win or lose, I think she's leaving for Bellator, but we'll see.



Tough card to bet on IMO. The entire main card has a lot of clear favorites, but usually cards don't go as expected, so good luck.

 

[Peter Griffin]

One of the few times that the replacement fight is arguably better, but this is the fight that should've happened all along.

 

[Sheppy]

Ultimately, I'm surprised Paige hasn't snapped her arm again. I guess the fight is still some days away...

I think Usman finishes Jorge in the 4th.

 

[CDJ]

Underdogs in the titles fights are getting tempting odds even though I don’t think any of them win

 

[m9]

Was already looking forward to this one, but obviously that main event change has really made things interesting.

That said, I don't think it's as competitive of a fight as Burns/Usman would have been. Usman's striking looked very good against Covington and while I don't think he can outstrike Masvidal he can definitely stand with him enough to set up his takedowns. Usman right now is in the zone where he has just looked so good I'm not picking against him until something changes, so I will take him to win this one. Something on the ground - either a submission or TKO - in the middle rounds.

I have no idea how Max Holloway wins this fight. Volkanovski thoroughly outclassed him in the first fight. Volkanovski has also had a much more normal training camp while Holloway has basically been doing his training online. I think this time Volkanovski will get a finish, TKO in Round 3.

I know Yan is the favorite for this fight, and that's fine... but Aldo lost a razor-close decision to Moraes who is far better than anyone Yan has beat. I think this is an extremely close fight that will go to a decision or split decision. I don't really have a pick in this fight, other than take the underdog odds as it's closer to a coin-flip.

I don't have a good read on Andrade/Rose, but am looking forward to it.

Ribas should easily beat Van Zant. Good showcase fight for her.

Oezdemir v Prochazka is a great fight at 205. Looking forward to this one more than anything other than the title fights. Santos v Bogatov is the other fight I'm really interested in on the undercard.

 

[CDJ]

Holloway started making some adjustments in the later rounds of his fight with Volkanovski, I’d have Volk as a slight favorite myself

 

[pistolpete11]

Was already looking forward to this one, but obviously that main event change has really made things interesting.

That said, I don't think it's as competitive of a fight as Burns/Usman would have been. Usman's striking looked very good against Covington and while I don't think he can outstrike Masvidal he can definitely stand with him enough to set up his takedowns. Usman right now is in the zone where he has just looked so good I'm not picking against him until something changes, so I will take him to win this one. Something on the ground - either a submission or TKO - in the middle rounds.

I have no idea how Max Holloway wins this fight. Volkanovski thoroughly outclassed him in the first fight. Volkanovski has also had a much more normal training camp while Holloway has basically been doing his training online. I think this time Volkanovski will get a finish, TKO in Round 3.

I know Yan is the favorite for this fight, and that's fine... but Aldo lost a razor-close decision to Moraes who is far better than anyone Yan has beat. I think this is an extremely close fight that will go to a decision or split decision. I don't really have a pick in this fight, other than take the underdog odds as it's closer to a coin-flip.

I don't have a good read on Andrade/Rose, but am looking forward to it.

Ribas should easily beat Van Zant. Good showcase fight for her.

Oezdemir v Prochazka is a great fight at 205. Looking forward to this one more than anything other than the title fights. Santos v Bogatov is the other fight I'm really interested in on the undercard.

I'm surprised you think Usman and and Volkanovski are going to finish Masvidal and Holloway.

Masvidal hasn't been finished in 11 years (not in the UFC) and 26 fights (mostly in UFC/Strikeforce). Usman only has 3 finishes in his 11 fights in the UFC. Max hasn't been finished since his UFC debut 8 years ago against Poirier. It was a submission and he has had 21 fights since then several of which I think were against guys that hit harder than Volkanovski. Dude's got a freak chin like Ferguson or the Diaz brothers, so I'd be shocked if he loses by KO.

Anything can happen in this sport, but I think the chances either are finished are low and even lower that both get finished.

 

[I am not exposed]

I'm surprised you think Usman and and Volkanovski are going to finish Masvidal and Holloway.

Masvidal hasn't been finished in 11 years (not in the UFC) and 26 fights (mostly in UFC/Strikeforce). Usman only has 3 finishes in his 11 fights in the UFC. Max hasn't been finished since his UFC debut 8 years ago against Poirier. It was a submission and he has had 21 fights since then several of which I think were against guys that hit harder than Volkanovski. Dude's got a freak chin like Ferguson or the Diaz brothers, so I'd be shocked if he loses by KO.

Anything can happen in this sport, but I think the chances either are finished are low and even lower that both get finished.

Was thinking the same thing with Holloway. He ate some heavy shots from Poirier in 5 rounds and wasn't finished. And Poirier hits harder than Volkanovski.

 

[pistolpete11]

Holloway started making some adjustments in the later rounds of his fight with Volkanovski, I’d have Volk as a slight favorite myself

I forget if it was Luke Thomas or Dan Hardy, but before one of his fights, they went through a bunch of the stats from Max's fights. It was crazy how he consistently increased his output round by round in all of them (maybe an exception here or there). I believe he consistently increased his accuracy, too. So if he can hit the ground running this time, maybe he can steal 3 rounds...maybe.

 

[Avs_19]

For anyone who wants to watch the first fight again:



Round 1: Volkanovski tore up Max's leg and landed more power shots. Easy round for Volkanovski.

Round 2: Max actually landed the better punch combos but Volkanovski lit up his lead leg again to the point where Max had to switch to southpaw. Max came on late but another round for Volkanovski mainly due to the leg kicks.

Round 3: Volkanovski landed some good shots and it was his best round so far in terms of punches and damage to the head. He also kept it up with the leg kicks. Another easy round for Volkanovski.

Round 4: Max finally switched back to orthodox and had a better round and he really turned it on in the second half of the round. It was close and Max just barely outstruck Volkanovski but I'm going with Volkanovski again because it looked like he was doing slightly more damage.

Round 5: This was Max's best round. He was able to land quite a few shots to the head and body before Volkanovski could get in range to land leg kicks. Max takes this one.

Volkanovski had a great game plan with the leg kicks repeatedly doing damage and scoring points for him. The last round was statistically his worst with the kicks and as I said above, I think Max coming forward and landing first played a role but it's not like Volkanovski didn't land any. He was still able to connect on 10 out of 15 kicks and do some more damage. One area where Max clearly improved in the last two rounds was the body shots. It became more of a focus and he had a lot of success there.

I feel like Max and his team are smart enough to make adjustments, even though they clearly weren't able to for majority of the first fight. If Max can limit the kicks then his chances should greatly improve. At the very least he has to check them, which he wasn't doing at all in the early rounds. On the other hand, Volkanovski isn't going to come out with the exact same game plan and he also has a very good team around him. I think it's also fair to wonder how much of Max's success in the last two rounds was due to him figuring things out and turning it on like he often does and how much was because of Volkanovski just naturally slowing down and/or knowing he was likely up 3-0.

I'm going to pick Max via decision because I still believe he's the better striker and he'll make the necessary adjustments but I'm not really confident in that prediction. That could also just be my bias coming into play because I'm a fan of his.

 

[CDJ]

I forget if it was Luke Thomas or Dan Hardy, but before one of his fights, they went through a bunch of the stats from Max's fights. It was crazy how he consistently increased his output round by round in all of them (maybe an exception here or there). I believe he consistently increased his accuracy, too. So if he can hit the ground running this time, maybe he can steal 3 rounds...maybe.

I believe it was Luke because I think I watched the video you are talking about. His fighter breakdowns are terrific

and I agree. Either way I think we are in for some technical mastery, going to be a great fight. Same for Aldo/Yan imo

 

[m9]

I'm surprised you think Usman and and Volkanovski are going to finish Masvidal and Holloway.

Masvidal hasn't been finished in 11 years (not in the UFC) and 26 fights (mostly in UFC/Strikeforce). Usman only has 3 finishes in his 11 fights in the UFC. Max hasn't been finished since his UFC debut 8 years ago against Poirier. It was a submission and he has had 21 fights since then several of which I think were against guys that hit harder than Volkanovski. Dude's got a freak chin like Ferguson or the Diaz brothers, so I'd be shocked if he loses by KO.

Anything can happen in this sport, but I think the chances either are finished are low and even lower that both get finished.

You're probably right in regards to finishes. I just don't trust Masvidal to be strong enough or have enough cardio to hang with Usman the deeper the fight gets.

 

[pistolpete11]

For anyone who wants to watch the first fight again:



Round 1: Volkanovski tore up Max's leg and landed more power shots. Easy round for Volkanovski.

Round 2: Max actually landed the better punch combos but Volkanovski lit up his lead leg again to the point where Max had to switch to southpaw. Max came on late but another round for Volkanovski mainly due to the leg kicks.

Round 3: Volkanovski landed some good shots and it was his best round so far in terms of punches and damage to the head. He also kept it up with the leg kicks. Another easy round for Volkanovski.

Round 4: Max finally switched back to orthodox and had a better round and he really turned it on in the second half of the round. It was close and Max just barely outstruck Volkanovski but I'm going with Volkanovski again because it looked like he was doing slightly more damage.

Round 5: This was Max's best round. He was able to land quite a few shots to the head and body before Volkanovski could get in range to land leg kicks. Max takes this one.

Volkanovski had a great game plan with the leg kicks repeatedly doing damage and scoring points for him. The last round was statistically his worst with the kicks and as I said above, I think Max coming forward and landing first played a role but it's not like Volkanovski didn't land any. He was still able to connect on 10 out of 15 kicks and do some more damage. One area where Max clearly improved in the last two rounds was the body shots. It became more of a focus and he had a lot of success there.

I feel like Max and his team are smart enough to make adjustments, even though they clearly weren't able to for majority of the first fight. If Max can limit the kicks then his chances should greatly improve. At the very least he has to check them, which he wasn't doing at all in the early rounds. On the other hand, Volkanovski isn't going to come out with the exact same game plan and he also has a very good team around him. I think it's also fair to wonder how much of Max's success in the last two rounds was due to him figuring things out and turning it on like he often does and how much was because of Volkanovski just naturally slowing down and/or knowing he was likely up 3-0.

I'm going to pick Max via decision because I still believe he's the better striker and he'll make the necessary adjustments but I'm not really confident in that prediction. That could also just be my bias coming into play because I'm a fan of his.

That's a good summary and lines up with what the judges saw, too. 1 judge gave Max round 2, 1 gave him round 4, and 2 gave him round 5. I thought it was a pretty clear win for Volkanovski, but Max was in the fight the whole time. An adjustment here or there and maybe it's enough to swing another judge in round 2 and 4 and he takes the fight. I wouldn't bet on it, but I'm trying to keep some hope as Max is one of my favorite fighters as well.

 

[pistolpete11]

You're probably right in regards to finishes. I just don't trust Masvidal to be strong enough or have enough cardio to hang with Usman the deeper the fight gets.

Masvidal's cardio to potentially wrestle for 5 rounds with a much bigger guy on short notice is a valid concern IMO. Usman's not much of a finisher though, so unless something is wide open, I think he'd just continue to control him and land some G&P when he can. I think Masvidal is good enough to not leave anything that wide open, tough enough to not get KO'ed, and proud enough to not quit.

 

[Perennial]

Masvidal's cardio to potentially wrestle for 5 rounds with a much bigger guy on short notice is a valid concern IMO. Usman's not much of a finisher though, so unless something is wide open, I think he'd just continue to control him and land some G&P when he can. I think Masvidal is good enough to not leave anything that wide open, tough enough to not get KO'ed, and proud enough to not quit.

Apparently Masvidal's been training in the event either Burns or Usman had to drop out...

 

[m9]

Masvidal's cardio to potentially wrestle for 5 rounds with a much bigger guy on short notice is a valid concern IMO. Usman's not much of a finisher though, so unless something is wide open, I think he'd just continue to control him and land some G&P when he can. I think Masvidal is good enough to not leave anything that wide open, tough enough to not get KO'ed, and proud enough to not quit.

The one variable for me in all that is that Usman doesn't have a ton of finishes and Masvidal doesn't get finished a lot. But neither guy has also had a ton of 5 round fights which increases the chances for a finish on Saturday.

But you're right, both Masvidal & Max are extremely durable. I just expect both guys to take a ton of damage. Lazy predictions by me saying both will get finished but you're right that dominant decisions was probably the more likely option.

 

[pistolpete11]

Apparently Masvidal's been training in the event either Burns or Usman had to drop out...

He was in camp training for Usman. He brought in Bo Nickal who's a multiple time D1 wrestling champ out of Penn State and won gold at the Worlds U23 last year. But when they gave the fight to Burns, I think he backed off. He told Ariel he still goes to the gym a couple times a week and lifts and shit, but he also said he's not in peak shape. Just that it was good enough to beat this 'bum', his words not mine.

But who knows. He could just be talking shit giving himself another excuse in case he loses.

 

[member 51464]

2019 was the year of Jorge. I think his magical run ends unless it's a flash KO right at the very very start of the fight.

 

[Byron Bitz]

This fight is way more interesting than the original fight

 

[1specter]

I have no idea how Max Holloway wins this fight. Volkanovski thoroughly outclassed him in the first fight. Volkanovski has also had a much more normal training camp while Holloway has basically been doing his training online. I think this time Volkanovski will get a finish, TKO in Round 3.

I want Max to win and I'm curious to see what he has in store but I do wish he had done another fight in between instead of getting the insta-rematch. I think Max was also starting to find his rhythm in the last two rounds of the last fight, but by that point his left leg had been obliterated by kicks so he wasn't able to have the same level of explosiveness.

Also I wouldn't take his comment about 'zoom training' seriously, Max is a bit of a clown who likes to talk shit and he also has to be careful as Hawaii has been pretty strict on people not breaking covid rules, especially with going to gyms. Also Volkanovski has been getting some online coaching himself.

Lastly, I don't see Volk finishing him, Max has one of the GOAT chins in MMA.... if Dustin couldn't finish Max I don't see someone like Volk who doesn't really take risks and has most of his UFC wins by decision doing it.

 

[1specter]

I look forward to Mas/Usman but I agree that Burns had the much better chance of actually giving Usman a hard time and taking his belt. Masvidal is a far superior striker to Kamaru but that doesn't matter much if Kamaru is just suffocating him on the cage and ground. That being said, Kamaru's stand-up isn't great, he has some bum knees so his footwork is very sloppy, he's slow and plodding and he has non-existent head movement. The one thing he does have is power and obviously a reach advantage. He's going to have to give zero space to Jorge though.

 

[Avs_19]

Usman is just a really bad match up for Masvidal. I wouldn't go as far as saying Masvidal only has a puncher's chance because of how skilled and well-rounded he is but it's still not great. As others have said, the most likely result is Usman just suffocating him for five rounds with his grappling and ridiculous pace/cardio. I hope that's wrong though and Masvidal pulls it off.

I gave my thoughts on Volkanovski/Holloway above. I don't know how it goes but I think it'll be a good fight.

I like Yan to get it done against Aldo. The level of competition might not be there but I don't think Yan should be discounted because of that. He looks like one of the better strikers in the UFC with how well he mixes things up. I was pleasantly surprised with Aldo's debut at BW so I think it'll be a good competitive fight but I have Yan winning and possibly even finishing it late.

Rose looked great in the first round against Andrade last time before eventually getting finished in the second. If she's focused and doesn't have something else going on then I like her chances of continuing what she did in that first round and winning the fight. Weili vs. Rose would be an awesome fight.

Ribas vs. PVZ feels like a F-U match up by the UFC. One where they're banking on PVZ heading into free agency and probably to Bellator after taking a one-sided beating. Ribas is just a much better fighter.

There's quite a bit of hype for Procházka right now. Should be a good fight and a really good test for him against Volkan.

I like the dos Santos/Salikhov match up as well.

 

[pistolpete11]

Ribas vs. PVZ feels like a F-U match up by the UFC. One where they're banking on PVZ heading into free agency and probably to Bellator after taking a one-sided beating. Ribas is just a much better fighter.

There is definitely a little bit of an F-U in there to PVZ for complaining about money, but it's a good opportunity to build Ribas, too. I hope they don't rush her up to Valentina, but she's young, talented, has an infectious personality, and she's kind fo cute, too. She could be a star in the UFC for many years to come.

I think and hope PZV is going to Bellator. Let's be honest. She doesn't suck, but she's never going to be champ in the UFC. She'll make more money in Bellator with sponsorships, the UFC has probably got what they can out of her and won't want to pay her much money, and she'd be one of Bellator's bigger stars. It's a win-win-win if you ask me.

 

[pistolpete11]

I want Max to win and I'm curious to see what he has in store but I do wish he had done another fight in between instead of getting the insta-rematch. I think Max was also starting to find his rhythm in the last two rounds of the last fight, but by that point his left leg had been obliterated by kicks so he wasn't able to have the same level of explosiveness.

Also I wouldn't take his comment about 'zoom training' seriously, Max is a bit of a clown who likes to talk shit and he also has to be careful as Hawaii has been pretty strict on people not breaking covid rules, especially with going to gyms. Also Volkanovski has been getting some online coaching himself.

Lastly, I don't see Volk finishing him, Max has one of the GOAT chins in MMA.... if Dustin couldn't finish Max I don't see someone like Volk who doesn't really take risks and has most of his UFC wins by decision doing it.

That's an interesting point. I wouldn't put it past any fighter to break quarantine and then lie about it. But I also wouldn't put it past Max to say "f*** it, let's scrap". He said on JRE he took his first MMA fight on 2 days notice or something without any training and learned his striking on the UFC video game . So who knows. Maybe we'll find out the truth after the fight somehow.