GDT: UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero

[Avs_19]

Date: March 7, 2020
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Middleweight Championship bout: Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Yoel Romero
Women's Strawweight Championship bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Joanna Jędrzejczyk
Lightweight bout: Beneil Dariush vs. Drakkar Klose
Welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Li Jingliang
Welterweight bout: Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, TSN 5)

Bantamweight bout: Sean O'Malley vs. José Alberto Quiñónez
Lightweight bout: Mark Madsen vs. Austin Hubbard
Middleweight bout: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Saparbek Safarov
Middleweight bout: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Deron Winn

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Women's Strawweight bout: Emily Whitmire vs. Polyana Viana
Bantamweight bout: Danaa Batgerel vs. Guido Cannetti​

Click to read more...

 

[CDJ]

That prelim is spicy

Deron Winn is an interesting prospect. Needs to try and fight a weight class down if possible though

Vieira is a world class Jiu Jitsu practitioner. Mark O’Madsen is an Olympian. O’Malley is the sugar show!

 

[ZDH]

Vieira (Sub)
Madsen (KO)
O'Malley (KO)
Oliveira (Sub)
Jingliang (KO) FOTN
Dariush (Dunno coin flip fight in the first place)
Zhang (UD)
Adesanya (UD)

havent researched the other fights enough to pick winners there

 

[m9]

I'm probably less into this card as some - could have really used a big 3rd fight at the top.

For as undeserving as he is to get the title shot, Romero has a legit shot here. Should be a great fight.

 

[Kel Varnson]

I'm probably less into this card as some - could have really used a big 3rd fight at the top.

For as undeserving as he is to get the title shot, Romero has a legit shot here. Should be a great fight.

Yeah too bad Cannonier - Whitaker fell through would've really completed this card.

 

[member 51464]

I had a very vivid dream about my girlfriend ruining that Romero won when I had to watch on delay.

I'm single currently, though, so looks like it'll be a big weekend for both Yoel and me!

 

[pistolpete11]

Yeah, too bad Cannonier-Whittaker and then Cannonier-Till fell through. The other 3 fights on the main card aren't bad fights. Just a little lackluster for a card with 2 title fights.

I think Stylebender gets it done. The staph scare is still somewhat of a concern for me. He said he didn't have to take antibiotics, but who knows if that's true. I don't see him finishing Romero, so I think he's going to need to go 5 rounds. That becomes harder to do on antibiotics. If I had any faith Romero would use his wrestling or clinch game to tire Stylebender out even more, I might pick Romero. But I expect him to do his usual plodding forward eating a ton of shots and then exploding looking for the KO. He could certainly still land that shot, but I think Stylebender's striking is too good. Even if he's on antibiotics, I think he'll be able to win at least 3 rounds and avoid that big shot.

Zhang is only a -150 favorite. If I was a betting man, I'd put down a decent chunk of change on her. The power discrepancy is too wide. I think she will walk through JJ's shots much like Valentina did and land the bigger shots. I guess maybe people are concerned about her training camp getting interrupted so many times trying to escape the Coronavirus? I'm not rooting for it, but JJ winning the belt back would be a cool story and setup another fight with Rose. Could be fun.

 

[member 51464]

Yeah, Joanna's pillow punches and volume seem unlikely to matter in time to stop her from getting crunched.

 

[Avs_19]

Main event should be a great fight. I'm going with Adesanya and I think he might do what seems impossible and stop Romero. It likely won't be easy and he'll probably eat a few big punches along the way but his striking is so good that I think he can do it, especially if Romero fights like he usually does and takes rounds off.

I'm looking forward to the co-main as well. Like @pistolpete11 said, it has been a weird and somewhat concerning camp for Zhang but I like her chances. I don't think her getting too wild at times should hurt her too much against Joanna and her power could be the difference. I'll also go with a stoppage in this fight.

Magny vs. Jingliang should be fun, there's a decent chance something weird might happen in the Oliveira fight, and it's nice to see O'Malley finally back.

 

[darko]

I think Israel stops Romero.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

I don't mind Romero getting this fight because he's been in razor close decisions and/or beaten the best in the division. I think Adesanya finishes him though. Despite how much anyone hopes or thinks he should, Romero will not use his wrestling. Adesanya is too long, too creative, and too good with his distance. Romero will be tentative at range the entire fight eating (little) shots. Those will take their toll over 25 minutes and once Romero gets tired I expect Adesanya to put him away. My guess is the 4th round.

The fight I (and I would think a lot of people) am really looking forward to is Adesanya/Costa. Legitimate bad blood there and Costa is an absolute beast.

Someone mentioned it but I really like Zhang at -150 or whatever she is. JJ has to be perfect to outpoint her for 25 minutes and I think Zhang's size/power will be the difference here.

 

[ZDH]

Getting 21-1 on Adesanya winning by submission...seems worth it I know it's unlikely, but that unlikely?

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't mind Romero getting this fight because he's been in razor close decisions and/or beaten the best in the division. I think Adesanya finishes him though. Despite how much anyone hopes or thinks he should, Romero will not use his wrestling. Adesanya is too long, too creative, and too good with his distance. Romero will be tentative at range the entire fight eating (little) shots. Those will take their toll over 25 minutes and once Romero gets tired I expect Adesanya to put him away. My guess is the 4th round.

The fight I (and I would think a lot of people) am really looking forward to is Adesanya/Costa. Legitimate bad blood there and Costa is an absolute beast.

Someone mentioned it but I really like Zhang at -150 or whatever she is. JJ has to be perfect to outpoint her for 25 minutes and I think Zhang's size/power will be the difference here.

Romero and Costa might as well be the same fighter. I still want to see Stylebener-Costa. The bad blood will make the lead up fun, but if he beats Romero, I don't see what else Costa would have to offer other than seeing him do it again.

 

[pistolpete11]

Getting 21-1 on Adesanya winning by submission...seems worth it I know it's unlikely, but that unlikely?

Seems pretty unlikely. Stylebender has zero wins via submission and Romero has zero losses via submission. Stylebender is a kickboxer and Romero is a silver medal Olympic wrestler. Even if he doesn't use his wrestling, if the fight somehow ends up on the ground, he'd be more apt to handle himself than Stylebender.

 

[ZDH]

Seems pretty unlikely. Stylebender has zero wins via submission and Romero has zero losses via submission. Stylebender is a kickboxer and Romero is a silver medal Olympic wrestler. Even if he doesn't use his wrestling, if the fight somehow ends up on the ground, he'd be more apt to handle himself than Stylebender.

Im considering it only for the scenario where Izzy gets a hard hit in that drops Romero but doesnt KO him, and then Izzy gets his back/on top/whatever for the submission. But I know what you're saying it is fairly unlikely...

 

[pistolpete11]

Im considering it only for the scenario where Izzy gets a hard hit in that drops Romero but doesnt KO him, and then Izzy gets his back/on top/whatever for the submission. But I know what you're saying it is fairly unlikely...

It's your money, but even then I think Stylebender would look to finish him with strikes. It's got to be your natural instinct to even look for a choke in that situation and I don't think Izzy's would be unless he's out to prove something. And that's on top of Stylebender even being able to drop him.

 

[m9]

Getting 21-1 on Adesanya winning by submission...seems worth it I know it's unlikely, but that unlikely?

Seems like a complete waste of money. You think the guy who has never submitted someone is going to submit the guy who has never been submitted? But hey, nice payoff if it hits.

Honestly if you need to go longshot for this fight then Romero by decision at 10-1 seemed like a much better bet. I probably prefer a draw at 50-1 over an Adesanya sub.

 

[CDJ]

Was it the gastelum fight where Izzy almost broke out a submission? There was one attempt in one of his fights where I was kinda impressed that it was something he would even go for

 

[Avs_19]

I don't like MMA parlays too much but you can get Adesanya and Weili to both win inside the distance at 7-1 odds. Both doing it might be unlikely but it's not unrealistic and it's not a bad payout.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm surprised so many people think Stylebender is going to finish Romero. I guess I didn't expect Izzy to finish Whitaker either, especially so easily, but Romero is such a tank.

 

[CDJ]

I may parlay an Adesanya decision with Weili KO

havent looked at the lines yet, I’ll have a better idea later on

 

[ZDH]

I'm surprised so many people think Stylebender is going to finish Romero. I guess I didn't expect Izzy to finish Whitaker either, especially so easily, but Romero is such a tank.

He's a tank that forgot to feul up when it left the base.

Watching his fights his tongue is hanging out of his mouth early in the 2nd round and he takes vast stretches of time doing absolutely nothing at all trying to get his wind back. I would be worried about his wrestling if he actually used it but he rarely does...

 

[pistolpete11]

He's a tank that forgot to feul up when it left the base.

Watching his fights his tongue is hanging out of his mouth early in the 2nd round and he takes vast stretches of time doing absolutely nothing at all trying to get his wind back. I would be worried about his wrestling if he actually used it but he rarely does...

And?

He's still only been finished once, 9 years ago. He still went the full 5 rounds with Whitaker...twice...and arguably won the second. He still went toe-to-toe trading with a guy who has 11 KO's in 13 fights and went the full 3 rounds.

 

[CDJ]

I don’t hate Quinonez as a +280 dog against O’Malley, dude can scrap. Only loses to legit fighters. Not saying O’Malley isn’t legit, but there are question marks there (level of competition + time off) that make me think +280 is good value

 

[ZDH]

And?

He's still only been finished once, 9 years ago. He still went the full 5 rounds with Whitaker...twice...and arguably won the second. He still went toe-to-toe trading with a guy who has 11 KO's in 13 fights and went the full 3 rounds.

And this tendency is going to get him torched on the scorecards vs Izzy.