GDT: UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos

[Avs_19]

Date: July 6, 2019
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Thiago Santos
Women's Bantamweight Championship bout: Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Holly Holm
Welterweight bout: Jorge Masvidal vs. Ben Askren
Light Heavyweight bout: Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Błachowicz
Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Michael Chiesa

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, TSN 5)

Featherweight bout: Gilbert Melendez vs. Arnold Allen
Bantamweight bout: Marlon Vera vs. Nohelin Hernandez
Women's Strawweight bout: Claudia Gadelha vs. Randa Markos
Bantamweight bout: Alejandro Pérez vs. Yadong Song

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass)

Middleweight bout: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Jack Marshman
Welterweight bout: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Chance Rencountre
Women's Bantamweight bout: Julia Avila vs. Pannie Kianzad​

Click to read more...

 

[m9]

Not really much to like on the undercard here. Melendez/Allen & Gadelha/Markos are good name fights but I think Allen & Gadelha have easy nights.

I like Chiesa to beat Sanchez, but I do think Sanchez's wrestling might be good enough to keep things interesting. I also think he might be a bit better than Chiesa on the feet. In the end though I expect Chiesa to grind his way to a decision or maybe a late finish.

I like Rockhold & Askren to both win their fights fairly easily. I don't want to discount either Blachowicz or Masvidal, I just think Rockhold is too dynamic on the feet and Askren will be too good on the ground. I'm sure Masvidal will get a few nice shots in while he can, but I think this is a great matchup for Askren.

It would be pretty foolish to bet against Amanda Nunes and I'm not going to do that. That being said.. I kind of like Holly Holm here. I think she can match Nunes on the feet and is going to keep things very, very interesting. I hate basing things on intangibles here but Holm is always hungry and Nunes has already been questioning her future. I can't pick Holm, but I will pick her taking it to a decision and maybe even losing a very close split decision that has people thinking rematch. So, Nunes by split decision.

As for Santos/Jones, obviously Jones is the massive favorite here. Again, I'm not picking Santos to win either. That said - he's better on the feet than pretty much anyone Jones has fought. If this fight stays on the feet, Jones is risking getting caught by a head kick or some sort of leg kick that does serious damage. I think that if both guys stay on the feet for 5 rounds, Thiago Santos might actually win. Because of that, I expect Jones to take him down and finish him in very similar fashion to how he finished Gus in their 2nd fight. Jones, 2nd round TKO.

 

[member 51464]

I'm very curious if Rockhold's glass chin seems less suspect at the higher weight.

 

[Rocko604]

Who I expect to win: Jones, Nunes, Askren, Rockhold, and Chiesa.
Who I want to win: Santos, Holm, Askren, Blachowicz and Sanchez.

 

[pistolpete11]

Seeing Jones and Santos standing next to each other, it took Jones from massive favorite to a sure thing in mind. Santos's only chance is by KO, but Jones is just so much longer and more importantly, knows how to use that advantage. Jones is such a smart fighter, too. He knows Santos's only chance is by KO, so I expect him to take Santos to the ground and finish him by G'n'P early. 1st or 2nd round.

Like @m9, my mind says Nunes, but my gut says Holly. If I was betting, I'd go with Holly simply because she's the underdog, but I wouldn't feel confident in that at all.

Masvidal-Askren is a fun one, but I got Askren. He took Robbie's best shots, so I think he will be able to take Masvidal's if he lands. Obviously a big advantage on the ground for Askren.

Rockhold is the better fighter, but is his chin completely gone even at LHW? I hate Rockhold, so I hope he loses in that sense, but if he looks good in a win, it sets up Rockhold-Jones. Rockhold is the only big name on the horizon for Jones unless they do Jones-DC 3.

 

[Neutrinos]

Seeing Jones and Santos standing next to each other, it took Jones from massive favorite to a sure thing in mind. Santos's only chance is by KO, but Jones is just so much longer and more importantly, knows how to use that advantage. Jones is such a smart fighter, too. He knows Santos's only chance is by KO, so I expect him to take Santos to the ground and finish him by G'n'P early. 1st or 2nd round.

Like @m9, my mind says Nunes, but my guy says Holly. If I was betting, I'd go with Holly simply because she's the underdog, but I wouldn't feel confident in that at all.

Masvidal-Askren is a fun one, but I got Askren. He took Robbie's best shots, so I think he will be able to take Masvidal's if he lands. Obviously a big advantage on the ground for Askren.

Rockhold is the better fighter, but is his chin completely gone even at LHW? I hate Rockhold, so I hope he loses in that sense, but if he looks good in a win, it sets up Rockhold-Jones. Rockhold is the only big name on the horizon for Jones unless they do Jones-DC 3.

Why not Romero? I would think that would be a bigger fight numbers-wise than Jones vs Rockhold

 

[tmurfin]

It would be absolute comedy if Rockhold got knocked silly. I used to really like the guy until he got a belt and turned the dickhead notch to 11

 

[DaBadGuy316]

Pumped for this card!
Santos
Holm
3 piece with a soda
Rockhold
The Nightmare

 

[Avs_19]

Jones takes it easily.

I could see Nunes having some issues with Holm's style. We already know Holm will go in with a great game plan and use her mobility to get in and out. It's highly unlikely she's going to go straight forward and trade bombs like we just saw Cyborg do. I'm still picking Nunes to win but I don't think it'll be easy.

Askren vs. Masvidal is a good fight but Askren's wrestling should give him a clear advantage. Masvidal has some underrated grappling but I don't think it'll matter.

No doubt Rockhold is unlikeable but I hope he wins and puts on a great performance. I think he's more interesting against Jones than Smith and Santos because of his skill set both standing and on the ground.

 

[pistolpete11]

Why not Romero? I would think that would be a bigger fight numbers-wise than Jones vs Rockhold

Well Romeo has a fight at MW scheduled for next month and I imagine they'd make him fight at least once at LHW before getting a shot at Jones. So we're probably like 7 months away at the very earliest to seeing Jones-Romeo and there's a lot of stuff that could happen between now and then.

 

[kabidjan18]

Two words: War Askren!

 

[Neutrinos]

Well Romeo has a fight at MW scheduled for next month and I imagine they'd make him fight at least once at LHW before getting a shot at Jones. So we're probably like 7 months away at the very earliest to seeing Jones-Romeo and there's a lot of stuff that could happen between now and then.

They're short on contenders for Jones as it is, you said so yourself

Romero vs Jones would be a huge fight, so why if you're the UFC would you risk that moneymaker by having Romero potentially lose to another fighter?

Not to mention that I don't think Romero would move up for anything other than an immediate shot at the title

 

[m9]

Romero isn't that big of a draw. I'd want to see that fight but I doubt the UFC cares if they missed out on it because someone else beat Romero.

 

[pistolpete11]

They're short on contenders for Jones as it is, you said so yourself

Romero vs Jones would be a huge fight, so why if you're the UFC would you risk that moneymaker by having Romero potentially lose to another fighter?

Not to mention that I don't think Romero would move up for anything other than an immediate shot at the title

Why didn't Rockhold get the title shot over Santos then?

 

[I am not exposed]

They're short on contenders for Jones as it is, you said so yourself

Romero vs Jones would be a huge fight, so why if you're the UFC would you risk that moneymaker by having Romero potentially lose to another fighter?

Not to mention that I don't think Romero would move up for anything other than an immediate shot at the title

You're overrating Romero's appeal by quite a bit.

 

[Neutrinos]

Why didn't Rockhold get the title shot over Santos then?

Maybe because he's coming off a loss to Romero?

 

[pistolpete11]

Maybe because he's coming off a loss to Romero?

Romero is still at MW at this point.

So it's not Rockhold or Romero. It's Rockhold or Santos.

 

[Neutrinos]

Romero is still at MW at this point.

So it's not Rockhold or Romero. It's Rockhold or Santos.

I know. I was suggesting he move up to take on Jones for the strap

 

[pistolpete11]

I know. I was suggesting he move up to take on Jones for the strap

I know. I'm suggesting that if Romero moves up, they would probably make him take a fight before getting Jones just like they did with Rockhold despite the next guy up in line being Santos.

 

[Neutrinos]

I know. I'm suggesting that if Romero moves up, they would probably make him take a fight before getting Jones just like they did with Rockhold despite the next guy up in line being Santos.

Rockhold was knocked out by a middleweight (Romero) in spectacular fashion during his last fight. Nothing about that deserves an immediate title shot in the higher weight class

Romero, on the other hand, has only 2 losses in the UFC - both of which were decision losses (1 split) to the current MW champ

There is zero incentive for Romero to go up and fight anyone other than Jones. Nor is there any incentive for the UFC to have Romero fight anyone other than Jones

 

[Jasper]

I'm having a hard time picking any of the underdogs on the main card. Seems like a good parlay bet. Interesting to see Melendez back as a big underdog.

 

[pistolpete11]

Rockhold was knocked out by a middleweight (Romero) in spectacular fashion during his last fight. Nothing about that deserves an immediate title shot in the higher weight class

Romero, on the other hand, has only 2 losses in the UFC - both of which were decision losses (1 split) to the current MW champ

There is zero incentive for Romero to go up and fight anyone other than Jones. Nor is there any incentive for the UFC to have Romero fight anyone other than Jones

I don't know man. Rockhold is a former UFC and Strikeforce champ who only has a couple losses in the UFC as well. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to see it, I just don't think the UFC would do it. Excluding women's flyweight and featherweight because they are new divisions, when is the last time a non-champion moved up a weight class to challenge for the title immediately? The only one that comes to mind is when Anderson fought DC. But that was on like 2 days notice and it's still Anderson f***in' Silva. What makes Romero so special that they would give it to him? He's never been the champ and he's not a huge draw.

Romero's incentive is pretty clear. 1) He's lost to the current champ twice already. Unless Whittaker loses, who knows when the next time he would get another title shot. 2) He's missed weight in his last 2 fights.

For the UFC's incentive, let me turn that back around to you. What's their incentive to give Romero an immediate shot at Jones? What is Jones' incentive to accept that fight?

 

[m9]

I don't know man. Rockhold is a former UFC and Strikeforce champ who only has a couple losses in the UFC as well. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to see it, I just don't think the UFC would do it. Excluding women's flyweight and featherweight because they are new divisions, when is the last time a non-champion moved up a weight class to challenge for the title immediately? The only one that comes to mind is when Anderson fought DC. But that was on like 2 days notice and it's still Anderson ****in' Silva. What makes Romero so special that they would give it to him? He's never been the champ and he's not a huge draw.

Romero's incentive is pretty clear. 1) He's lost to the current champ twice already. Unless Whittaker loses, who knows when the next time he would get another title shot. 2) He's missed weight in his last 2 fights.

For the UFC's incentive, let me turn that back around to you. What's their incentive to give Romero an immediate shot at Jones? What is Jones' incentive to accept that fight?

Silva v DC wasn't for the title, it was a 3 round fight.

 

[pistolpete11]

Silva v DC wasn't for the title, it was a 3 round fight.

That's right. So unless I'm forgetting something, it goes even further back, if ever. Maybe when divisions were newly formed?

 

[m9]

That's right. So unless I'm forgetting something, it goes even further back, if ever. Maybe when divisions were newly formed?

The one that jumped right out to me was Randy Couture, when they gave him the title shot vs Tim Sylvia.