GDT: U18 WCH's in Örnsköldsvik and Umeå 18 April-28 April 2019

[Mac n Gs]

No.

I said it back in like January, but the recency bias of these tournaments always drive me insane. Imagine what Kakko would be doing in this tournament if he were here? He's been dominating men at the WC instead. I get that Chicago fans want him to drop, but the writing is basically on the wall. MSG is already doing promo vids highlighting Hughes and Kakko.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

jack hughes is a slippery flash of a player.

kid has sublime feet. he just glides around and with 3-4 strides- hes gone. kid is an elite skater.

his ability to take the puck up ice and make defensive players look like they are wearing work boots is something.

kid is a beautiful skater at full speed.

While I agree with you, I don't think today's game should be used to really judge him.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Tell me why it's not possible Kakko drops out in TOP3 this summer if Turcotte and Boldy keep this domination mood up rest of the U18 WJC tournament. Because i don't see any reason why that can't happen.

History has showed that surprises are possible in 1st draft round.
No-one didn't expect Puljujärvi drops 4th overall in 2016 and Zadina drops 6th overall last year.

Those are examples on that everything can happen in draft night.
If you look past drafts you can see that good or very good performances in U18 WJC's really can boost players draft stock. Heiskanen and Kotkaniemi went both 3rd overall in their draft years ( 2017 and 2018) and U18 WJC's was that last boost for them so everything is possible.

No team will not trade down if they dont want Kakko or Hughes. Not one.

If the Rangers think Zegras is Matt Barzal and Kakko is Puljujarvi, they will trade down and let another team take Kakko at two. But that is way too ballsy a move for a team to make. Kappo has a perfect pre-draft resume and continues to crush shit.

That's not to say Kakko and Hughes are locks to have the two best careers. Look at Tkachuk and Dubois -- clearly superior players to Laine this season, and maybe beyond. But not a soul publicly said that on draft day in 2016.

Kakko or Hughes will be a Ranger. Rangers fans need to start entertaining the idea that Shero could be poker facing it and have a secret obsession with Kakko. Especially since he's drafted centers with his first pick in three of the last four drafts. I don't think he should do that, but still a possibility greater than most Rangers fans think.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I said it back in like January, but the recency bias of these tournaments always drive me insane. Imagine what Kakko would be doing in this tournament if he were here? He's been dominating men at the WC instead. I get that Chicago fans want him to drop, but the writing is basically on the wall. MSG is already doing promo vids highlighting Hughes and Kakko.

Jack Hughes this past week:

6 points vs Switzerland
1 point vs Sweden
7 points vs Slovakia

Let's pump the brakes a bit. He's a good player, but let's not use the games against the Swiss and Slovaks as evidence that he's some godly generational kid. He's a future franchise player, that's it. But I already see people use these performances to label him generational all over social media

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I said it back in like January, but the recency bias of these tournaments always drive me insane. Imagine what Kakko would be doing in this tournament if he were here? He's been dominating men at the WC instead. I get that Chicago fans want him to drop, but the writing is basically on the wall. MSG is already doing promo vids highlighting Hughes and Kakko.

Sadly, that combine can completely offset an entire season of work. Barzal is the perfect example. He crushed the U18's in 2015, his knee was healed up and Boston still docked him for supposedly being cocky in the interview. Arizona also used the combine as reasoning to take Hayton a good 8-10 spots off the conventional board. We'll see how that turns out.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Jack Hughes this past week:

6 points vs Switzerland
1 point vs Sweden
7 points vs Slovakia

Let's pump the brakes a bit. He's a good player, but let's not use the games against the Swiss and Slovaks as evidence that he's some godly generational kid. He's a future franchise player, that's it. But I already see people use these performances to label him generational all over social media

That's going into an entire semantical rabbit hole that I'm not touching with a ten foot pole. You're also not going to get the brightest opinions from the majority of social media fans, so it's best to just avoid it than try to filter out the white noise.

Hughes is what he is at this point, and we all know it already. He's a ridiculously dynamic playmaker that can shred opposing defenses apart with how he moves and sees the game. He'll always have that physical limitation barring a growth spurt or intense training, but the rest of his skills are elite enough to compensate for it. The other elite centers all have a few inches on him and were able to pack on ~20 pounds post draft. You would know of all people. Remember Barzal in Seattle? The dude was a string bean, but he always had the frame and lower base to add a good amount of weight and strength. That's the one factor that's going to hold back Jack from hitting that upper-echelon tier of superstar players.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

That's going into an entire semantical rabbit hole that I'm not touching with a ten foot pole. You're also not going to get the brightest opinions from the majority of social media fans, so it's best to just avoid it than try to filter out the white noise.

Hughes is what he is at this point, and we all know it already. He's a ridiculously dynamic playmaker that can shred opposing defenses apart with how he moves and sees the game. He'll always have that physical limitation barring a growth spurt or intense training, but the rest of his skills are elite enough to compensate for it. The other elite centers all have a few inches on him and were able to pack on ~20 pounds post draft. You would know of all people. Remember Barzal in Seattle? The dude was a string bean, but he always had the frame and lower base to add a good amount of weight and strength. That's the one factor that's going to hold back Jack from hitting that upper-echelon tier of superstar players.

As a Thunderbirds fan, I fondly remember Barzal. He was amazing. Hughes will be a great player, but I don't agree with people going all ga-ga over him getting 13 points in 2 games against shit teams

 

[Mac n Gs]

Sadly, that combine can completely offset an entire season of work. Barzal is the perfect example. He crushed the U18's in 2015, his knee was healed up and Boston still docked him for supposedly being cocky in the interview. Arizona also used the combine as reasoning to take Hayton a good 8-10 spots off the conventional board. We'll see how that turns out.

Hearing and reading about some of the behind-the-scenes dynamics with how teams interview these kids is always fascinating to me, and I can't help but laugh at how they dock some of these kids for being cocky at 18 years old when they've literally always been the best-of-the-best in their respective peer groups. C'est la vie.

I'd agree that there can be risers in this draft, and I still think we see a healthy Turcotte usurp all of the Western Canadian kids as the top C, but I can't imagine any movement between Hughes and Kakko. Those two are it. Barring something absolutely bonkers, nothing at the combine should change that standing.

I totally agree with you about how it can influence other kids like Hayton, Foudy, etc. I'd argue it matters a bit more for the later picks, but that's a conversation for a different thread on another day.

 

[Synergy27]

Jesus Christmas that goal Boldy scored at the end of the period was filthy. Every bit of it, from the receipt of the pass to the move thru the D to the bar down backhander. Damn.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Gorts is in Örnsköldsvik BTW, saw the US earlier today and now Sweden-Latvia.

As well as Gordie and/or Bobrov, I assume?

 

[Emptyvoid]

There's something supremely satisfying watching an 18 year old teenager make men shit their pants. I can't wait to see Kakko don that blue jersey.

 

[Ola]

jack hughes is a slippery flash of a player.

kid has sublime feet. he just glides around and with 3-4 strides- hes gone. kid is an elite skater.

his ability to take the puck up ice and make defensive players look like they are wearing work boots is something.

kid is a beautiful skater at full speed.

Yeah, and it’s a bit funny because Hughes isn’t really “100%”.

I am not sold on him being generational, but he is a good first overall pick. He is a bit shorter, but he reminds me the most of Mike Modano. I hope that Gorton is smart and — through Drury — let some of these kids audition at the WCHs. Quinton Hughes played last season, D-1, albeit he didn’t participate in the U18 since he was too old.

I’ve personally always felt that this is Hughes’ draft and then the competition for the three following spots are pretty even. Podkolzin is a special talent and Turcotte in many ways is such a valuable player to have on a team. Kakko is really good, but, nobody should expect a freak of nature on the ice. I actually think it’s a bit unfair to compare him too much to Hughes in that regard.

Look, Hughes — will — be the bigger star in the NHL. But with that said, I am not so sure we will have a lesser chance to win a Cup if we get Kakko. Hughes would be more exciting to watch every other game, but Kakko is a winner. That is why you select him. One of Kakko’s biggest strengths is actually winning back the puck after losing it. He is so intense, like you pull a switch and he goes from playing controlled with the puck to furious without it. He can skate, he can shoot, he is smart, he has size and so forth. But, the big difference between him and Turcotte and Podkolzin and co is not talent, it’s Kakko’s intanglibles.

Think of a little scaled back vs of Eichel that has some Toews in him. Something like that.

 

[Ola]

I said it back in like January, but the recency bias of these tournaments always drive me insane. Imagine what Kakko would be doing in this tournament if he were here? He's been dominating men at the WC instead. I get that Chicago fans want him to drop, but the writing is basically on the wall. MSG is already doing promo vids highlighting Hughes and Kakko.

The men’s WC starts in May!

Edit: Or did you mean the U20? My bad if so.

 

[offdacrossbar]

i wasnt saying anything about hughes being anything other than the best skater in this draft

kid can flat out skate.

i believe he will be the quintessential "makes players better" guy.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

No team will not trade down if they dont want Kakko or Hughes. Not one.

If the Rangers think Zegras is Matt Barzal and Kakko is Puljujarvi, they will trade down and let another team take Kakko at two. But that is way too ballsy a move for a team to make. Kappo has a perfect pre-draft resume and continues to crush ****.

That's not to say Kakko and Hughes are locks to have the two best careers. Look at Tkachuk and Dubois -- clearly superior players to Laine this season, and maybe beyond. But not a soul publicly said that on draft day in 2016.

Kakko or Hughes will be a Ranger. Rangers fans need to start entertaining the idea that Shero could be poker facing it and have a secret obsession with Kakko. Especially since he's drafted centers with his first pick in three of the last four drafts. I don't think he should do that, but still a possibility greater than most Rangers fans think.

I don't think Shero starts poker with 1st pick he'll take Hughes no matter what.
What comes to Kakko he needs carry Finland's offence in his back in IIHF men's worlds Finland's team in that tournament will be weak. Almost all our ( Finland ) NHL players starting from Barkov have declined to come IIHF men's worlds this year and we have this same issue with our KHL players as well.

Finland needs almost a miracle to make quarterfinals in this years IIHF men's worlds and only because our best players aren't coming to Slovakia. Our IIHF men's worlds team will be a mix of SM liiga players, AHL players, SHL and NLA players if we get even three NHL players ( Teravainen, Hintz and Heiskanen if Carolina and Dallas gets eliminated in NHL playoffs ) it's good.

And how this is up to Kakko that's why because if he can't carry Finland in IIHF men's worlds and he struggles with scoring issues it can hurt his draft stock and if that happens teams like Devils and Rangers might start hesitate to draft Kakko.

Sorry off topic.

 

[Ola]

I don't think Shero starts poker with 1st pick he'll take Hughes no matter what.
What comes to Kakko he needs carry Finland's offence in his back in IIHF men's worlds Finland's team in that tournament will be weak. Almost all our ( Finland ) NHL players starting from Barkov have declined to come IIHF men's worlds this year and we have this same issue with our KHL players as well.

Finland needs almost a miracle to make quarterfinals in this years IIHF men's worlds and only because our best players aren't coming to Slovakia. Our IIHF men's worlds team will be a mix of SM liiga players, AHL players, SHL and NLA players if we get even three NHL players ( Teravainen, Hintz and Heiskanen if Carolina and Dallas gets eliminated in NHL playoffs ) it's good.

And how this is up to Kakko that's why because if he can't carry Finland in IIHF men's worlds and he struggles with scoring issues it can hurt his draft stock and if that happens teams like Devils and Rangers might start hesitate to draft Kakko.

Sorry off topic.

I did some quick googling and didn't find any good compilation, maybe its something for @Amazing Kreiderman to put together.

But D-1 players don't really score at the men's WCH's, its unique just to participate. Laine was the goto shooter on the Finns top PP unit and got 12 pts in 10 games, but I don't think that is compare able given his role.

I did some checking around. Its rare that D-1 players play there, but from the top of my mind and some checking up, here is what I found:
-Bäckström had 0+0 in 4 games.
-AO 1+1 in 6 games
-Jagr 3+2 in 10 games
-Dan Sedin 0+1 in 9 games
-Hank Sedin 0+0 in 9 games
-Saku Koivu 0+1 in 6 games
-Olli Jokinen 4+2 in 8 games
-Austin Matthews 6+3 in 10 games
-Q Hughes 0+2 in 10 games

I am sure I missed a few names, but not that many. Its really really rare that D-1 players make the mens WCHs. I don't think I overlooked that many guys. Think of the biggest European draft stars, so many didn't play. Sundin, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Mikko K, Gaborik and co.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Most points by players in the WC prior to being draft eligible:

Patrik Laine: 12 points in 10 games
Paul Kariya: 9 points in 8 games
Auston Matthews: 9 points in 10 games
Jack Eichel: 7 points in 10 games
Olli Jokinen: 6 points in 8 games
Jaromir Jagr: 5 points in 10 games

 

[Ola]

Most points by players in the WC prior to being draft eligible:

Patrik Laine: 12 points in 10 games
Paul Kariya: 9 points in 8 games
Auston Matthews: 9 points in 10 games
Jack Eichel: 7 points in 10 games
Olli Jokinen: 6 points in 8 games
Jaromir Jagr: 5 points in 10 games

Damn you are good!

Where did you find that? Do you have a longer list? There are really few guys who played before their draft eligible season.

But in essence, there are only 6 players in the history of the game who scored 0.5 PPG at the mens WCH's before their draft year. Bäckstörm, Saku Koivu, the Sedins and AO made it but more or less didn't score at all. A big bunch of draft eligble super stars didn't get to play at all (but I am not sure how much consideration Crosby and McDavid and co got, but the European guys were always considered).

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Damn you are good!

Where did you find that? Do you have a longer list? There are really few guys who played before their draft eligible season.

But in essence, there are only 6 players in the history of the game who scored 0.5 PPG at the mens WCH's before their draft year. Bäckstörm, Saku Koivu, the Sedins and AO made it but more or less didn't score at all. A big bunch of draft eligble super stars didn't get to play at all (but I am not sure how much consideration Crosby and McDavid and co got, but the European guys were always considered).

Well, there are some others but that's from the 1930s and 1940s so I did not include them.

Elite Prospects - WC Stats All-time season

Go here, and just exclude the players who played in their D+1 season (Since it's filtered to only show u19 players)

 

[Ola]

Yeah, thanks!

To the list of players who did not score in the mens WCH in their D-1 season, Marian Hossa, Kopitar and Kessel can be added. 1-2 pts.

My point is just, even if Laine score a lot at the WCH's I wouldn't read anything into it if Kakko didn't put up pts there. Nor Hughes either if Drury selects him for the US.

 

[Polar Bear]

I don't think Shero starts poker with 1st pick he'll take Hughes no matter what.
What comes to Kakko he needs carry Finland's offence in his back in IIHF men's worlds Finland's team in that tournament will be weak. Almost all our ( Finland ) NHL players starting from Barkov have declined to come IIHF men's worlds this year and we have this same issue with our KHL players as well.

Finland needs almost a miracle to make quarterfinals in this years IIHF men's worlds and only because our best players aren't coming to Slovakia. Our IIHF men's worlds team will be a mix of SM liiga players, AHL players, SHL and NLA players if we get even three NHL players ( Teravainen, Hintz and Heiskanen if Carolina and Dallas gets eliminated in NHL playoffs ) it's good.

And how this is up to Kakko that's why because if he can't carry Finland in IIHF men's worlds and he struggles with scoring issues it can hurt his draft stock and if that happens teams like Devils and Rangers might start hesitate to draft Kakko.

Sorry off topic.

No team is not taking Kakko 1 or 2 because he didn't have a lights out WC. He already proved his worth and then some in the WJC and Liiga. Stop hoping that Kakko will somehow fall to 3, it's just not happening.

 

[Ola]

vPod with another donut in the stat-sheet tonight. If he starts falling -- when does the falling end?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

vPod with another donut in the stat-sheet tonight. If he starts falling -- when does the falling end?

How long does he want to stay in Russia?

Thats going to have everything to do with where he goes.

Nikolayev has been really good. I don't know what his contractual status is, but I love his game.

 

[Ola]

How long does he want to stay in Russia?

Thats going to have everything to do with where he goes.

Nikolayev has been really good. I don't know what his contractual status is, but I love his game.

Podkolzin has two years left on his contract. He isn't ready for SKA next season, will probably be loaned somewhere like Rykov. Two years seem like a really long time if you are drafting in the top 2-3, but its really not that long outside it. Most kids take time. OTOH, imagine if you are the GM and you get a pick like this. Its so hard with the lottery. A year of sucking is a long time, its a negative factor that you cannot impact his development at all until May 1, 2021. And you cannot rule out, probably, that sometime in December 2020 it will be announced that you have to way until May 1, 2022 or even 23/24 -- although I do think that is very unlikely.

Scouts love him for a reason, he has been unanimous No 3, or close to it, in McKenzie's pollings in stiff competition.. He is probably the 2nd most talented kid in this draft, he plays a hard game all over the ice, amazing with the puck, can shoot and pass it. But as we have seen before, when a kid start to fall it can go fast. There are many kids looking good in the 3-12 range right now.

I would deal Chytil for him, if some team would listen in the 8-12 range and he is on the table. Podkolzin's talent is unique.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Podkolzin has two years left on his contract. He isn't ready for SKA next season, will probably be loaned somewhere like Rykov. Two years seem like a really long time if you are drafting in the top 2-3, but its really not that long outside it. Most kids take time. OTOH, imagine if you are the GM and you get a pick like this. Its so hard with the lottery. A year of sucking is a long time, its a negative factor that you cannot impact his development at all until May 1, 2021. And you cannot rule out, probably, that sometime in December 2020 it will be announced that you have to way until May 1, 2022 or even 23/24 -- although I do think that is very unlikely.

Scouts love him for a reason, he has been unanimous No 3, or close to it, in McKenzie's pollings in stiff competition.. He is probably the 2nd most talented kid in this draft, he plays a hard game all over the ice, amazing with the puck, can shoot and pass it. But as we have seen before, when a kid start to fall it can go fast. There are many kids looking good in the 3-12 range right now.

I would deal Chytil for him. Podkolzin's talent is unique.

He's signed for 2 years, but I've read stuff that suggests that he intends to stay longer than that.

2 years shouldn't be a deterrent, but 3+ will be.