Tyler Seguin the beauty tells it how it is

Kranix

Deranged Homer
Jun 27, 2012
18,198
16,221
An absolute shock that the dude who has a tattoo of his own name is too dumb to understand what goal differential is :laugh:
The reporter listed off all the ways Dallas was under-performing including goal differential and analytics. The Seguin said analytics are overrated.
 

Hischier and Hughes

“I love to hockey”
Jan 28, 2018
9,408
4,357
By the way the negative goal differential because of the round robin where the Stars sucked overall and got smoked by the Avs in one game . In actual real playoff games Stars are +6 .

Also goal differential is not an analytic . Wierd question.

The whole round robin needs to be ignored. That was not playoff hockey from any of the teams.
How is goal differential not analytic? Is it not a statistic that is calculated and used in analysis?
 

Kranix

Deranged Homer
Jun 27, 2012
18,198
16,221
How is goal differential not analytic? Is it not a statistic that is calculated and used in analysis?
It doesn't say who was on the ice for all the gf and ga or how many shots or whatever so you can't then conclude who the best players in the league are if you played 500 games in a row.
 

nickdawg95

scoutdawg
Jan 7, 2016
3,286
1,769
I've said it for years. Analytics in hockey are stupid. This sport simply does not have the necessary stat keeping to perform solid analytics.

You can analyse a turd all you want, but at the end of the day, it's still a turd.
Analytics serve a purpose but when clowns on hf blindly use analytics without any context and claim it's the word of god it does get very exhausting
 

Riseonfire

Josh Bailey! GAME ONE, TO THE ISLAND!!!
Nov 8, 2009
11,341
5,326
I've said it for years. Analytics in hockey are stupid. This sport simply does not have the necessary stat keeping to perform solid analytics.

You can analyse a turd all you want, but at the end of the day, it's still a turd.

Hello tiny little ant. Like everything else, to learn you need to START. No one said the 1st day of Analtics "oh hey, we're done here. No more learning use these formulas and win the hockey!"

It's evolving and isn't going anywhere.
 

Sol

Smile
Jun 30, 2017
23,153
18,740
He handsome yeah, but hes definitely been ugly as hell in the playoffs this year.
 

JaegerDice

The mark of my dignity shall scar thy DNA
Dec 26, 2014
25,117
9,338
You know what Tyler Seguin's least favorite analytic is?

Playoff goals scored.


In all seriousness, the reason advanced metrics like CF% and xGF% gained widespread use was because CURRENT goal-differential is not good predictor of FUTURE goal-differential.

CF% and xGF% both have higher correlation with future GF% and wins than current GF%.

But the correlation isn't 1:1. There are always going to be outliers. There are plenty of cinderella stories in sports history, and in a game as inherently random as hockey, sometimes worse teams are going to win because of a mix of hot goaltending, or the other team going cold, etc.
 

JaegerDice

The mark of my dignity shall scar thy DNA
Dec 26, 2014
25,117
9,338
Curious to see this too.

Off the top of my head, since 2008 when they started getting tracked in earnest (this is score adjusted CF%, I'd have to check xGF%):

2008: Yes
2009: Yes*
2010: Yes
2011: No
2012: Yes
2013: Yes
2014: Yes
2015: Yes
2016: Yes*
2017: No
2018: No
2019: Yes*

* Indicate teams that had coaching changes and/or roster changes that significantly impacted them part-way through the year. PIT 09, PIT 16 and STL 19 were all among the best teams in the league through the 2nd half of the season in their respective years.
 
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Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
24,865
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Vancouver
If you truly understand the game, then you don't need statistics. Plus, the eye-test actually gives you both quantitative and qualitative data at the same whereas statistics only give you quantitative data without context.

I think you'd be surprised at how inaccurate our brains are at quantitative data. If you tried to mentally keep track of even simple statistics like goals and points, I bet what you thought happened at the end of the year would be quite different than what players actually produced.
 

JaegerDice

The mark of my dignity shall scar thy DNA
Dec 26, 2014
25,117
9,338
If you truly understand the game, then you don't need statistics. Plus, the eye-test actually gives you both quantitative and qualitative data at the same whereas statistics only give you quantitative data without context.

You're arguing for the same test that people used to determine that the Sun revolved around the Earth instead of vice versa. We used numbers to learn the truth.

That's typically how it works.


As far as hockey, the eye-test is good for evaluating INPUTS. The hows and the whys. For example, stats can't tell us a player is FAST, but it can tell us he's great at controlled zone exits and puck retrievals. It takes the eye-test to determine it's because he out-skates his opposition, rather than muscling them off the puck or protecting the puck with his body.

But our brains are actually quite poor for measuring the 'how many' of anything over large quantities of data points. It's very easy for our brains to see something once, have it make an impression, then look for every piece of evidence that reinforces that impression while ignoring potentially vast amounts of of evidence that contradict it.

It's called confirmation bias. It's common, powerful phenomena.

The eye-test is a relatively good tool for evaluating what happened in one game.

It's a very poor tool for evaluating what happened over the course of many games.
 
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Whalers Fan

Go Habs!
Sep 24, 2012
3,996
3,711
Plymouth, MI
why is this guy tweeting instead of being focused on winning the cup?

oh i know why, same reason why he got traded..
I'm an old fart who doesn't do social media, but come on. Do you actually think taking 30 seconds to post something on Twitter is really taking away focus from winning the Cup?

Ad, yes, I know Seguin was answering a question in a news conference, and not on Twitter. But still....
 

Dr Pepper

Registered User
Dec 9, 2005
70,560
15,726
Sunny Etobicoke
I'm an old fart who doesn't do social media, but come on. Do you actually think taking 30 seconds to post something on Twitter is really taking away focus from winning the Cup?

Ad, yes, I know Seguin was answering a question in a news conference, and not on Twitter. But still....

Amazing how many people have made that mistake today, isn't it? :laugh:

"Omgz, u guys, Seguin is tweeting out that stuff instead of focusing on the finals? No wonder Boston traded him, lawl"

Guess there's more people than I thought, who don't know how quotes work.
 

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
53,616
27,303
New Jersey
You're arguing for the same test that people used to determine that the Sun revolved around the Earth instead of vice versa. We used numbers to learn the truth.

That's typically how it works.


As far as hockey, the eye-test is good for evaluating INPUTS. The hows and the whys. For example, stats can't tell us a player is FAST, but it can tell us he's great at controlled zone exits and puck retrievals. It takes the eye-test to determine it's because he out-skates his opposition, rather than muscling them off the puck or protecting the puck with his body.

But our brains are actually quite poor for measuring the 'how many' of anything over large quantities of data points. It's very easy for our brains to see something once, have it make an impression, then look for every piece of evidence that reinforces that impression while ignoring potentially vast amounts of of evidence that contradict it.

It's called confirmation bias. It's common, powerful phenomena.

The eye-test is a relatively good tool for evaluating what happened in one game.

It's a very poor tool for evaluating what happened over the course of many games.
Its pretty amazing isn’t it?

This is all a very good point. The issue isn’t hockey knowledge, it’s about how much your brain can take in without bias.
 
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Zaddy

Registered User
Feb 8, 2013
13,058
5,850
You're arguing for the same test that people used to determine that the Sun revolved around the Earth instead of vice versa. We used numbers to learn the truth.

That's typically how it works.


As far as hockey, the eye-test is good for evaluating INPUTS. The hows and the whys. For example, stats can't tell us a player is FAST, but it can tell us he's great at controlled zone exits and puck retrievals. It takes the eye-test to determine it's because he out-skates his opposition, rather than muscling them off the puck or protecting the puck with his body.

But our brains are actually quite poor for measuring the 'how many' of anything over large quantities of data points. It's very easy for our brains to see something once, have it make an impression, then look for every piece of evidence that reinforces that impression while ignoring potentially vast amounts of of evidence that contradict it.

It's called confirmation bias. It's common, powerful phenomena.

The eye-test is a relatively good tool for evaluating what happened in one game.

It's a very poor tool for evaluating what happened over the course of many games.

You don't need a spreadsheet filled with numbers for this though. A notepad is sufficient (aka what most scouts do). The problem with analytics is that they aren't immune to bias. Yes, the raw data is unbiased, but then you have to have a human interpret that data and voila, you have a biased take. So someone relying purely on numbers can make a way worse judgement on a player/team/whatever than someone who solely relies on the eye test. I rarely see this aspect of 'analytics' being mentioned. As long as humans interpret the significance of these statistics, it's bound to be flawed.

I think in general people don't really have a good idea of which stats are actually useful and in what context which is why this is so problematic. Analytics in hockey today are still largely useless. Maybe that'll change in the future, maybe not, but as someone with a scouting background I'm a hell of a lot more comfortable using the eye test than giving analytics any significance in my evaluation of a player. Statistics *can* be useful in a supporting context to verify that what you see on the ice is actually true, but you should never let it be the dominant factor or even a large factor in your judgement of a player. A good evaluator doesn't need to rely on numbers.
 
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