Tyler Myers next contract?

[Flair Hay]

If we could keep Myers for somewhere in the $4M range, maybe 4.5, that would be a decent deal for what he does and doesn't bring.

We will only have room for him if Trouba has to go. But that's looking more likely than ever. Theres worse backup plans than Myers that's for sure.

 

[Halberdier]

FYI Trouba had 2 more 5v5 points than Corsica credits him for. The same thing happened in 2016/17. Morrissey had 4 more points that Corsica credits, Buff had 1 more.
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick



Actual P/60:
Trouba
2017/18 1.22
2016/17 1.30

Morrissey
2017/18 1.03

Buff
2017/18 0.88

How do you know that? AFAIK playing without goalie (6-on-5 or 5-on-6) doesn't count as 5-on-5 in Corsica. That's why Wheeler has substantially worse 5-on-5 stats that many people thought since his 6-on-5 stats are counted in normal (flawed) +/-. Not sure if those missing goals for Trouba are also 6-on-5 or 5-on-6.

 

[Maukkis]

So I took the time to reconsider your post regarding Myers being 155th best & decided that's it's a bit of malarkey.

You've allowed far too many players to enter this equation. There's 136 defencemen that played 1000+ minutes last season. To set the bar at 250 minutes is allowing a number of players that played 15-ish games to skew these results making your point obtuse.

Lets instead look at 153 defencemen that played 900 minutes or more, the Jets placed:

21st-1.09 Trouba
55th-0.84 Morrissey
59th-0.83 Byfuglien
98th-0.64 Myers

And for comparison:
121st-0.55 Brady Skeij
120th-0.55 Samuel Girard
115th-0.58 Duncan Keith
93rd-0.67 Chris Letang
79th-0.73 Cam Fowler
75th-0.75 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
74th-0.75 Hampus Lindolm

If we're going to call attention to the warts on Myers, let do so with his defensive game & not hide behind sample size to conclude he's poor offensively 5x5.

900 minutes or more as in 5v5 or all situations? And even still, a sheltered *offensive* defenseman making 5.5 needs to do a lot more than what Myers has done. Those numbers also aren't entirely accurate, but that has been brought up already.

Here are some offensive defensemen who have actually had good results in a sheltered role: Torey Krug, Jake Gardiner, Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Dumba.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

900 minutes or more as in 5v5 or all situations? And even still, a sheltered *offensive* defenseman making 5.5 needs to do a lot more than what Myers has done. Those numbers also aren't entirely accurate, but that has been brought up already.

Here are some offensive defensemen who have actually had good results in a sheltered role: Torey Krug, Jake Gardiner, Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Dumba.

Yes.

NHL.com - Stats

all the way and past...

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

900 minutes or more as in 5v5 or all situations? And even still, a sheltered *offensive* defenseman making 5.5 needs to do a lot more than what Myers has done. Those numbers also aren't entirely accurate, but that has been brought up already.

Myers made $3 million last season. His $10 million signing bonus six seasons ago inflated his AAV.

I also just listed players making considerably more than Myers than are in his ballpark for P/60.

Here are some offensive defensemen who have actually had good results in a sheltered role: Torey Krug, Jake Gardiner, Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Dumba.

Byfuglien plays a sheltered role? Gardiner? He's 2nd in the NHL in even 5x5 minutes. Burns? He's 3rd. Dumba? He's 8th.

I think you're digging a hole for yourself...

There are legitimate faults within Myers game. You've created a false narrative about his offence that you should retract.

 

[Maukkis]

Myers made $3 million last season. His $10 million signing bonus six seasons ago inflated his AAV.

I also just listed players making considerably more than Myers than are in his ballpark for P/60.



Byfuglien plays a sheltered role? Gardiner? He's 2nd in the NHL in even 5x5 minutes. Burns? He's 3rd. Dumba? He's 8th.

View attachment 134599

I think you're digging a hole for yourself...

There are legitimate faults within Myers game. You've created a false narrative about his offence that you should retract.

A cap hit of 5.5, anyway. For that, Myers is putting up some mediocre results.

As for the other point, Buff and Burns are sheltered from the toughest assignments (Morrissey/Trouba, Vlasic/Braun taking the worst ones instead). There are many ways of sheltering players, and while they do play a lot of minutes, their QoC isn't as high as their workload suggests.

The difference is that the five guys I mentioned are able to produce at a high-end rate and do well in terms of possession, whereas Myers has not been able to capitalise on his easy usage. You just conveniently ignored the point.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If we could keep Myers for somewhere in the $4M range, maybe 4.5, that would be a decent deal for what he does and doesn't bring.

We will only have room for him if Trouba has to go. But that's looking more likely than ever. Theres worse backup plans than Myers that's for sure.

With Myers recent surgeries, at the forefront of my mind isn't salary. It's term.

Mike Green recently signed for $5.3 million / 2 years. Perhaps that's a good comparable?

Again there's zero in the system for RD, slim picking on the 2019 Free Agent market & an unsigned Trouba isn't getting us a first pairing defencemen back.

Barring a trade, and now we're really clouding the issue with hypotheticals, I'd suggest signing Myers is the only option Chevy has.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

A cap hit of 5.5, anyway. For that, Myers is putting up some mediocre results.

As for the other point, Buff and Burns are sheltered from the toughest assignments (Morrissey/Trouba, Vlasic/Braun taking the worst ones instead). There are many ways of sheltering players, and while they do play a lot of minutes, their QoC isn't as high as their workload suggests.

The difference is that the five guys I mentioned are able to produce at a high-end rate and do well in terms of possession, whereas Myers has not been able to capitalise on his easy usage. You just conveniently ignored the point.

I ignored nothing. Your "point" was:

Here are some offensive defensemen who have actually had good results in a sheltered role: Torey Krug, Jake Gardiner, Brent Burns, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Dumba.

But you didn't quote players playing in a sheltered role. Instead you quoted the league leaders in TOI, literally the worst examples you could have provided.

 

[Maukkis]

I ignored nothing. Your "point" was:



But you didn't quote players playing in a sheltered role. Instead you quoted the league leaders in TOI, literally the worst examples you could have provided.

If we are at the point at which sheltered defensemen are not considered sheltered, I guess we might as well stop here.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If we are at the point at which sheltered defensemen are not considered sheltered, I guess we might as well stop here.

Who considers the league leaders in EV TOI "sheltered"?

We're communicating in English correct?

Does would=wouldn't on hfboards now as well?

 

[Maukkis]

Who considers the league leaders in EV TOI "sheltered"?

We're communicating in English correct?

Does would=wouldn't on hfboards now as well?

Sheltered from top competition (and in some cases, given easier zone starts etc). You follow the Jets, so stop pretending like you don't know that's the case with Buff.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If we are at the point at which sheltered defensemen are not considered sheltered, I guess we might as well stop here.

Myers had 385 offensive zone starts, 411 neutral zone starts & 392 defensive zones starts.

Isn't that rather balanced? If anything skewed slightly the opposite way?

 

[Duke749]

Myers had 385 offensive zone starts, 411 neutral zone starts & 392 defensive zones starts.

Isn't that rather balanced? If anything skewed slightly the opposite way?

That’s irrelevant. Who he’s getting matched up against is why he’s considered sheltered. Every time he moved up the line up last year he struggled in his own zone.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Sheltered from top competition (and in some cases, given easier zone starts etc). You follow the Jets, so stop pretending like you don't know that's the case with Buff.

Byfuglien's zone starts were 402 OZ, 450NZ & 382DZ. Again fairly balanced.

Actually all the top rated Jets D from last season were used evenly in all situations.

I guess that comes with being as deep as we were & also that the team was rarely behind.

Your points with all the other players you mentioned in terms of zone starts is actually very accurate. Burns at 614OZ & 395NZ is telling. Krug at 567OZ & 309 DZ is as well.

Yes I was being argumentative, but I shouldn't have to look up stats for you to help make your point.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

That’s irrelevant. Who he’s getting matched up against is why he’s considered sheltered. Every time he moved up the line up last year he struggled in his own zone.

So Myers is sheltered & Byfuglien is as well...

Geez are we going to miss Trouba.

 

[Duke749]

Byfuglien's zone starts were 402 OZ, 450NZ & 382DZ. Again fairly balanced.

Actually all the top rated Jets D from last season were used evenly in all situations.

I guess that comes with being as deep as we were & also that the team was rarely behind.

Your points with all the other players you mentioned in terms of zone starts is actually very accurate. Burns at 614OZ & 395NZ is telling. Krug at 567OZ & 309 DZ is as well.

Yes I was being argumentative, but I shouldn't have to look up stats for you to help make your point.

So zone starts are all equal if one guy is constantly matched up against the Crosbys, Malkins, and the McDavids and another guy is matched up against guys like Letestu, and the Brett Ritchies of the world?

 

[Maukkis]

So Myers is sheltered & Byfuglien is as well...

Geez are we going to miss Trouba.

Obviously Buff is not as sheltered as Myers, but he doesn't have to take the worst of it like Trouba does. He also does his job with lesser partners (Myers is also stuck with Kulikov, though).

And the Krugs and Gardiners of the league actually take their favourable usage (better linemates, worse opposition, more offensive situations) and produce a lot in those minutes (about 1+ 5v5 P/60). Myers has a lot of the benefits going for him, yet he does not produce at a high level. When that is combined with the defensive struggles he has, it becomes evident that Myers is not that good.

 

[Halberdier]

So zone starts are all equal if one guy is constantly matched up against the Crosbys, Malkins, and the McDavids and another guy is matched up against guys like Letestu, and the Brett Ritchies of the world?

If and only if those Crosbys, Malkins and McDavids are also having equal distribution of zone starts, which they might or might not have.

(Btw. I have just a bit problem about the term "sheltering" when an offensive weapon of mass destruction like Burns is used on O-zone starts whenever possible. The point might or might not be sheltering his not-so-good defending, but most probably the point is to use your best offensive assets when you have the opportunity to score [O-zone vs. D-zone].)

Also it seems to be a bit or a bit more than a bit over the top to claim Buff plays in sheltered role for the Jets.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Zone deployment != QoC

 

[Halberdier]

Zone deployment != QoC

Speaking of 5-on-5 TOI% QoC (playoffs):

Morrissey 29.76
Trouba 29.62
Byfuglien 29.26
Enström 29.22
Morrow 29.14
Myers 28.64
Chiarot 28.41
Kukikov 27.49
Poolman 27.28

As a fun fact, Poolman had the lowest TOI% QoC among all NHL D-men on playoffs, Kulikov was the 3rd.

Morrissey was facing only only 26th best competition as a D in playoffs, Trouba 31th.

It's a stretch to call Buff to be sheltered, if anything his QoC is roughly equal to the first line, just a bit under that.

Regular season:

Morrissey 29.42
Trouba 29.39
Enström 29.13
Byfuglien 29.10
Myers 28.64
Morrow 28.61
Kulikov 28.31
Chiarot 28.07
Poolman 27.76
Niku 27.36

Looking at just those that played regularly, Jets D deployment looks more even than on many other teams. Buff is not sheltered according to these. Myers is slightly sheltered, and just as expected, those young guys are substantially sheltered. Kulikov situation is odd, though. Maybe due to his injuries?

Until they let Maurice to decide how the opposite team is deployed, you can shelter only so much.

 

[ps241]

Last season Trouba was out for a while and PMo tried To use Myers on the top paring with Morrissey and as I recall they got eaten alive?

Tyler does not suck but he is limited now and he is not the answer when it comes to an “enduring starting role” in our top 4 at a high cap hit. I would prefer to ignore handedness before I did that. The other challenge for Tyler is the left side is emerging so he no longer has an Enstrom type to play with.

Thankfully it doesn’t matter this season. Chevy has his work cut out for him retooling his D core after this season though. If he signs Myers long term to be our #2 RHD man then an aging Buff might need to play 25 minutes a night again eating the toughest minutes! If that happens our team will have taken a BIG step backwards.

 

[MardyBum]

So I took the time to reconsider your post regarding Myers being 155th best & decided that's it's a bit of malarkey.

You've allowed far too many players to enter this equation. There's 136 defencemen that played 1000+ minutes last season. To set the bar at 250 minutes is allowing a number of players that played 15-ish games to skew these results making your point obtuse.

Lets instead look at 153 defencemen that played 900 minutes or more, the Jets placed:

21st-1.09 Trouba
55th-0.84 Morrissey
59th-0.83 Byfuglien
98th-0.64 Myers

And for comparison:
121st-0.55 Brady Skeij
120th-0.55 Samuel Girard
115th-0.58 Duncan Keith
93rd-0.67 Chris Letang
79th-0.73 Cam Fowler
75th-0.75 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
74th-0.75 Hampus Lindolm

If we're going to call attention to the warts on Myers, let do so with his defensive game & not hide behind sample size to conclude he's poor offensively 5x5.

He's also behind Kulikov and Chiarot, but Kulikov missed the 900 min cutoff by 25, and Chia only played 780 5v5 min.

He was our 5th most productive 5v5 dman last year, only beating out Enstrom for the regulars, 6th if you count Chia as a regular playing 57 games.

Kinda meh for a supposed offensive defenseman.

 

[surixon]

Last season Trouba was out for a while and PMo tried To use Myers on the top paring with Morrissey and as I recall they got eaten alive?

Tyler does not suck but he is limited now and he is not the answer when it comes to an “enduring starting role” in our top 4 at a high cap hit. I would prefer to ignore handedness before I did that. The other challenge for Tyler is the left side is emerging so he no longer has an Enstrom type to play with.

Thankfully it doesn’t matter this season. Chevy has his work cut out for him retooling his D core after this season though. If he signs Myers long term to be our #2 RHD man then an aging Buff might need to play 25 minutes a night again eating the toughest minutes! If that happens our team will have taken a BIG step backwards.

They actually didn't get killed. The pair had a CF% of 52.44 and a FF% of 51.29. So Morrissey was able to prop up Myers. Myers numbers without Morrssey last season where not good. CF% of 50.14 and FF% 49.74. Having said that I want no part in Myers saddling JoMo moving forward.

 

[MardyBum]

Speaking of 5-on-5 TOI% QoC (playoffs):

Morrissey 29.76
Trouba 29.62
Byfuglien 29.26
Enström 29.22
Morrow 29.14
Myers 28.64
Chiarot 28.41
Kukikov 27.49
Poolman 27.28

As a fun fact, Poolman had the lowest TOI% QoC among all NHL D-men on playoffs, Kulikov was the 3rd.

Morrissey was facing only only 26th best competition as a D in playoffs, Trouba 31th.

It's a stretch to call Buff to be sheltered, if anything his QoC is roughly equal to the first line, just a bit under that.

Regular season:

Morrissey 29.42
Trouba 29.39
Enström 29.13
Byfuglien 29.10
Myers 28.64
Morrow 28.61
Kulikov 28.31
Chiarot 28.07
Poolman 27.76
Niku 27.36

Looking at just those that played regularly, Jets D deployment looks more even than on many other teams. Buff is not sheltered according to these. Myers is slightly sheltered, and just as expected, those young guys are substantially sheltered. Kulikov situation is odd, though. Maybe due to his injuries?

Until they let Maurice to decide how the opposite team is deployed, you can shelter only so much.

Eh, the difference in toiqoc from worst to best is less than 2.3 with a minimum of 600 min (lol @ Hainsey #1). So it's better to look at the rankings and not the numbers.

Trouba and Mo are (just counting it out so could be off by 1 lol) 20th and 16th, Buff and Enstrom. . 60 and 57. Myers was 133, out of 195 dmen with 600+ min. Not going to include Myers bump up due to Trouba's injury as i'm sure thats the case for other guys, but that's likely the reason Kulikov is a lot lower than Myers.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

So zone starts are all equal if one guy is constantly matched up against the Crosbys, Malkins, and the McDavids and another guy is matched up against guys like Letestu, and the Brett Ritchies of the world?

Sadly I was unable to watch the 322 games that Torey Krug, Jake Gardiner, Brent Burns & Matt Dumba played to form an opinion on how their coaches deployed them.

Although zone starts certainly play role in player usage, hockey is a rather fluid game & in the grand scheme of things play continues uninterrupted exponentially more often than the few dozen stoppages that occur during a game.

I do realize there are stats meant to monitor this. If you'd care to get into detail as to the difference between a player with a 27.88 TOI QoC compares to another at 29.75 at TOI CoC, I'm listening.

Obviously Buff is not as sheltered as Myers, but he doesn't have to take the worst of it like Trouba does. He also does his job with lesser partners (Myers is also stuck with Kulikov, though).

And the Krugs and Gardiners of the league actually take their favourable usage (better linemates, worse opposition, more offensive situations) and produce a lot in those minutes (about 1+ 5v5 P/60). Myers has a lot of the benefits going for him, yet he does not produce at a high level. When that is combined with the defensive struggles he has, it becomes evident that Myers is not that good.

I already presented Myers P/60 which placed him in the upper threshold of NHL defensemen receiving second pairing minutes of the 160 players playing 900 minutes or more 5x5. If we're going to talk about ignoring stats, lets start with that one.

Your origins premise was Myers P/60 at 5x5 marginalized him as a low grade 3rd pairing defensemen whose offence at even strength was 155th in the league.

You can't compare a defencemen playing 1400 minutes 5x5 to press box fodder playing 250 minutes 5x5. You may as well have dropped the criteria of any minutes played at all.