Waived: Tyler Johnson (cleared) - continued

[TBF1972]

I guess you mean sweeteners? 1st 2021 2nd 2022

2nd in 2021 and 1st in 2022 unprotected would sound better.

 

[Rschmitz]

Some team is going to do incredibly well for itself by acquiring TJ. Give him top 6 minutes and favorable zone starts and he’s going put up a ton of goals and offense

 

[Rschmitz]

Just because New Jersey is shit, doesn't mean they should collect scraps from cap-tight teams. In their situation, I'd rather pick few names on that UFA list and sell them before trade deadline.

Paul Byron, Tyler Johnson, people have high expectations that their overpriced bottom-6 forwards with few years left in their contracts have any value in cap-strangled nearby future.

Buy him out.

The buy out period has ended this year

 

[Richard88]

Some team is going to do incredibly well for itself by acquiring TJ. Give him top 6 minutes and favorable zone starts and he’s going put up a ton of goals and offense

NJ would be a good fit potentially. But I think they'd push to have Sergachev included even if it costs them Ty Smith or a 1st.

 

[Byrddog]

There is another factor here that people have not mentioned in the last 40 posts:

The current UFA list has players that can be acquired for free with only $$. And this list is not horrid:

Mike Hoffman
Evgenii Dadonov
Mikael Granlund
Alex Galchenyuk
Sami Vatanen
Andy Greene
Carl Soderberg
Michael Frolik
Travis Hamonic
Andreas Athanasiou
Anthony Duclair
Derrick Brassard
Dominic Kahun
Eric Haula
Conor Sheary
Corey Perry
Ben Hutton
Brian Boyle

Its being reported by Dreger that a 3-4M million dollar player in this list is currently being offered a 1year 1M deal.
These guys are going to have to settle for sweat heart deals soon. Some them might not even get NHL contracts.

Also next year the cap might be flat... but NHL teams are going to lose money big time with no fans in the building.
Most deals are being structured back end loaded, because teams don't want soo much red in 2021. There just is NO appetite for money right now.

I would not want to be TB right now... I honestly think they are in a much much worse position than most posters believe they are in. The only good news for TB is there is evidence that their RFA's likely will make less than they thought they were going to ... even if they are traded.

Too few people are considering this. With the number of teams with cap left the question is who wants to spend? Colorado for example has a chunk with no one really critical to sign if they wanted they could sign any of those on this list to shore up there D and still save money for next year or they could make a trade say for Sergichev pay him and still be ok moving no one they have the options Tampa had a few years ago there window is just opening. Most teams have a tight purse right now not knowing if there is even going to be a season for 20-21. They are not spending like drunken sailors like the fans have become accustom too. In a normal year the top four on that list have already signed deals this long after FA day and the league is into making hockey trades. The idea that teams out there are going to just out of the kindness of there heart bail out a team with Cap problems that just hoisted the cup is asinine. Unless they can poach a top 4 D guy like Sergi or a superstud like Point they can fall back on your list to pick up guys to fill out there roster.

You are correct about some of these guys not being in the league next year too. Budgets are tight and uncertain. Because a team has some Cap does in no way mean they will spend to the top now. Insurance made up much of the Covid lost revenue from last season but you can bet that insurance companies will not do that again. It is going to be like many insurance companies in south Florida after hurricane Andrew they just stopped writing policies that carried the loss risk. With uncertainty of the TV contract and the reak chance that no more than 50% allowed in Arenas a number of teams are fighting to survive. Those who just spout how easy moving salary are just clueless. In an article from April from PRN 66% of all Americans were working from home that has eased up some but that did not include unemployed either. Now close to 40% are still working from home and the unemployment rate is still above 8% the borders remain closed and another cold season is upon us with the virus predicted to make a comeback.

All that said these RFA's have been offered qualifying offers a compromise is going to have to be made or offersheets offered in order for the Bolts to overcome this. It is becoming more and more clear that even with sweeteners trading partners are severely limited those under contract holding NTC's have the power. If the league has to push back the starting date the league has little choice than to go to the players org and negotiate compliance buyouts yet again. Ticket pricing is starting to come out from the teams and the increases I have seen are unpalatable in Nashville one of the most reasonable ticket situation in the past for full season ticket where I used to sit is now more than doubled from pricing just a few years ago. So it is not just a Cap problem it is a revenue issue.

 

[Guttersniped]

2nd in 2021 and 1st in 2022 unprotected would sound better.

People typically don’t do unprotected 1sts. “Bwahaha and make it unprotected and your little dog too!”

A 2022 1st is actually tempting with the typical protections since next years draft is wonky. A defense heavy draft with no clear cut favorite already means everyone will be more wrong then usual and scouting is obviously very limited. The overagers in 2022 are probably going to be relatively fantastic (assuming we aren’t in Hell and everything still sucks), the Islanders scored by at least getting a 2022 2nd out of their desperation move.

I still wouldn’t want TJ but a 2022 1st is low key pretty sweet which is why Tampa will not want to trade that one.

 

[TBF1972]

People typically don’t do unprotected 1sts. “Bwahaha and make it unprotected and your little dog too!”

A 2022 1st is actually tempting with the typical protections since next years draft is wonky. A defense heavy draft with no clear cut favorite already means everyone will be more wrong then usual and scouting is obviously very limited. The overagers in 2022 are probably going to be relatively fantastic (assuming we aren’t in Hell and everything still sucks), the Islanders scored by at least getting a 2022 2nd out of their desperation move.

I still wouldn’t want TJ but a 2022 1st is low key pretty sweet which is why Tampa will not want to trade that one.

Unprotected it's a 0.1% chance at Wright?

 

[Guttersniped]

The buy out period has ended this year

It has for Tampa since none of their players even filed for arbitration.

 

[not a troll]

Some team is going to do incredibly well for itself by acquiring TJ. Give him top 6 minutes and favorable zone starts and he’s going put up a ton of goals and offense

Hilarious

 

[Guttersniped]

Unprotected it's a 0.1% chance at Wright?

Oh, I just meant I don’t know if any GM would offer a 1st without at least some minimal lottery protection in this crazy season. Teams will take it, but even Tampa’s season can south with a bunch of injuries and we just saw two traded 1st blow up on teams. Only San Jose really counts because Ottawa has two terrible years in a row and you can’t keep delaying the 1st.

San Jose’s 1st wasn’t protected, Ottawa got SJ 2019 1st if they didn’t make the playoffs and 2020 1st if they did. San Jose had only missed the playoffs once in 15 years, they are in the weakest Division in the weaker Conference so it may have not felt like much of a gamble. I think that would make teams more cautious, the Pens protected the 1st in the Zucker trade in Feb 10 for instance.

I can’t argue it doesn’t increase the trade value for GMs, I don’t know how they generally feel about that. Maybe it did in the Karlsson trade?

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I would not want to be TB right now... I honestly think they are in a much much worse position than most posters believe they are in. The only good news for TB is there is evidence that their RFA's likely will make less than they thought they were going to ... even if they are traded.

Things are grim but the fact that all of their RFA's are a year away from arbitration huge. Those players might end up signing super cheap 1 year deals just to play hockey this year, on a team they don't want to leave, knowing next year they will get fair money regardless whether it's arbitration or Tampa figuring things out. Doubt any of them will burn bridges and blame the organization for not being able to free cap space and ask for a trade or something like that. Players aren't dumb and understand that covid+cap team is tough to deal with right now, and the cup ring certainly makes it even easier to cope with.

There's always Killorn to trade to the highest bidder if nothing else. If Tampa ends up with 6M to sign these 3 guys and im Sergachev/Cirelli, i would definitely consider signing for 1 year ~2.5M and take the hit. At least i don't have to pack my shit, leave sunny Florida and play in front of empty crowds on a mediocre team or even worse spend time in a bubble with guys i don't know.

I mean, based on the Point contract what would these guys get in a normal year anyway? Like 4M bridges? It's not like you're leaving huge amount of money on the table.

If they had arbitration rights Tampa would be f***ed right now. But they don't, and if there's any team that sweet talk their way through this with minimal cap space it's Tampa.

A lot of guys around in the league are in bad spots but the more i think about it these RFA's under these circumstances are on top of the list. Their only leverage is to threaten to play in Europe but who wants to burn bridges with a team you just won the cup with, and it's not like the Nylander situation where you know the team has the money to pull anything off and it's all just negotiation tactics. You might end up missing months and Tampa just can't clear the space to pay any more than could in the first place. It's just a no-win situation all around.

Maybe im overly optimistic or underestimate how much these guys want to maximize their value regardless of the circumstances, but i feel like i can't bet against Tampa right now until proven otherwise.

 

[kabidjan18]

I think Tampa just needs to pony up, but they're unwilling to. If they put on the league-wide bulletin board, "TJ + 2021 2nd +2022 2nd for FC", I'm sure at least one team would bite. But I think they're just trying to test how small of a sweetener they can give other teams right now, and teams are stiffing small sweeteners anticipating a better sweetener will come along.

 

[DFC]

I think Tampa just needs to pony up, but they're unwilling to. If they put on the league-wide bulletin board, "TJ + 2021 2nd +2022 2nd for FC", I'm sure at least one team would bite. But I think they're just trying to test how small of a sweetener they can give other teams right now, and teams are stiffing small sweeteners anticipating a better sweetener will come along.

If offer sheets arent coming, it makes no sense for JBB to force anything before the market shakes out.

 

[drw02]

I think Tampa just needs to pony up, but they're unwilling to. If they put on the league-wide bulletin board, "TJ + 2021 2nd +2022 2nd for FC", I'm sure at least one team would bite. But I think they're just trying to test how small of a sweetener they can give other teams right now, and teams are stiffing small sweeteners anticipating a better sweetener will come along.

That's probably what they're offering now but teams aren't biting because those picks are really more akin to 3rd's and Johnson is still owed a lot of money. Seems like TB will have to offer a 1st+ in this financial climate

edit- TB doesn't own their 2021 2nd

 

[BK201]

Some team is going to do incredibly well for itself by acquiring TJ. Give him top 6 minutes and favorable zone starts and he’s going put up a ton of goals and offense

Idk i just haven't watched enough to give a full critique but I think detroit would have nabbed him if he was worth his contract, possibly Ottawa as well.

 

[kabidjan18]

If offer sheets arent coming, it makes no sense for JBB to force anything before the market shakes out.

Simply the absence of offer sheets isn't enough. If by the time arbitration ends, no teams have cap or cash left, then TJ becomes actually immovable. There is barely enough cap to give each player a qualifying offer. And to actually give just a minimal qualifying offer (say for Cernak, 735k), players would be forced to look into a litany of options, even such as playing abroad. Like Sergachev could easily play in the KHL, and he would earn more than the minimal QO.

 

[Richard88]

Too few people are considering this. With the number of teams with cap left the question is who wants to spend? Colorado for example has a chunk with no one really critical to sign if they wanted they could sign any of those on this list to shore up there D and still save money for next year or they could make a trade say for Sergichev pay him and still be ok moving no one they have the options Tampa had a few years ago there window is just opening. Most teams have a tight purse right now not knowing if there is even going to be a season for 20-21. They are not spending like drunken sailors like the fans have become accustom too. In a normal year the top four on that list have already signed deals this long after FA day and the league is into making hockey trades. The idea that teams out there are going to just out of the kindness of there heart bail out a team with Cap problems that just hoisted the cup is asinine. Unless they can poach a top 4 D guy like Sergi or a superstud like Point they can fall back on your list to pick up guys to fill out there roster.

You are correct about some of these guys not being in the league next year too. Budgets are tight and uncertain. Because a team has some Cap does in no way mean they will spend to the top now. Insurance made up much of the Covid lost revenue from last season but you can bet that insurance companies will not do that again. It is going to be like many insurance companies in south Florida after hurricane Andrew they just stopped writing policies that carried the loss risk. With uncertainty of the TV contract and the reak chance that no more than 50% allowed in Arenas a number of teams are fighting to survive. Those who just spout how easy moving salary are just clueless. In an article from April from PRN 66% of all Americans were working from home that has eased up some but that did not include unemployed either. Now close to 40% are still working from home and the unemployment rate is still above 8% the borders remain closed and another cold season is upon us with the virus predicted to make a comeback.

All that said these RFA's have been offered qualifying offers a compromise is going to have to be made or offersheets offered in order for the Bolts to overcome this. It is becoming more and more clear that even with sweeteners trading partners are severely limited those under contract holding NTC's have the power. If the league has to push back the starting date the league has little choice than to go to the players org and negotiate compliance buyouts yet again. Ticket pricing is starting to come out from the teams and the increases I have seen are unpalatable in Nashville one of the most reasonable ticket situation in the past for full season ticket where I used to sit is now more than doubled from pricing just a few years ago. So it is not just a Cap problem it is a revenue issue.

That part in bold about Colorado isn't true.

Right now there's $6.8m in capspace, but there's only 18/23 players signed, including Toews.

Realistically the moves will shake out as:

• Toews: ~$4m
• Jost: ~$1m
• O'Connor: $725k
• Gilbert: $925k

... which totals $6.65m. And so just like that Colorado would be down to only $150k in capspace. Colorado have their AHL affiliate just 30 minutes away, so carrying only 22 players is something they do on a regular basis so that wouldn't be a problem at all.

Whatever the case, Colorado doesn't have as much capspace left to spend.

However, I could certainly see an opportunistic $1m x 1 year signing or two just for depth purposes (eg. 13F / 7D), but unless we're moving a contract like Compher/Donskoi/Calvert/Cole/Bellemare there just simply isn't room to make any significant additions.

 

[BCNate]

Honest question, what am I missing here?

People are trashing on Tyler Johnson here like he is a Loui Erikkson level player,

The last 2 seasons combined he has put up 43 goals, 78 points in 145 games, playing a 3rd line 15 minutes per game with little power play time. The pace for those are 24 goals, 44 points, 15 mins per night. Plug him into a top 6 role and some decent fancy stats, would it be unfathomable to expect that he goes 30 goals 50 points?

I get he is paid 5 mill for 4 more years, which takes him to 34, which is a little high, but if you could get a significant sweetener along with him for free, why wouldn't a team explore it. He has outproduced/put up similar stats to a number of recent signings that have been said to be great deals.

 

[8999]

I get he is paid 5 mill for 4 more years, which takes him to 34, which is a little high, but if you could get a significant add along with him for free, why wouldn't a team explore it.

If by 'significant add' you mean a sweetener, there's probably a gap between what teams (only 8 on his approved list) want and what TB is willing to give up at the moment. If the price if too high, TB may be exploring other options to free up cap space first.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Wonder if JBB's desire to re-sign all 3 RFAs has changed at all after seeing how difficult and costly it may be to move the necessary salaries off the books. Cernak/Cirelli/Sergachev are great, but is it still a must (in his mind) to keep all three? It will probably require multiple 1/2 rd draft picks to clear enough space, and I wonder if that's what JBB expected when he started this.

He pretty much needs to move at least one player just to get cap space to fill out the roster, so perhaps he deals Johnson no matter how painful. But maybe he won't deal Gourde/Killorn/Palat if they require adding expensive sweeteners?

Maybe they can't sign all 3 RFA's and need to give one up (Cernak?) in a trade.

Maybe package with Johnson to get rid of TJ.

Cernak and Johnson to Ottawa/Detroit/Jersey (if TJ agrees).

 

[Byrddog]

That part in bold about Colorado isn't true.

Right now there's $6.8m in capspace, but there's only 18/23 players signed, including Toews.

Realistically the moves will shake out as:

• Toews: ~$4m
• Jost: ~$1m
• O'Connor: $725k
• Gilbert: $925k

... which totals $6.65m. And so just like that Colorado would be down to only $150k in capspace. Colorado have their AHL affiliate just 30 minutes away, so carrying only 22 players is something they do on a regular basis so that wouldn't be a problem at all.

Whatever the case, Colorado doesn't have as much capspace left to spend.

However, I could certainly see an opportunistic $1m x 1 year signing or two just for depth purposes (eg. 13F / 7D), but unless we're moving a contract like Compher/Donskoi/Calvert/Cole/Bellemare there just simply isn't room to make any significant additions.

You place much more value on those four than I. Towes IMO is a 2.5 mil guy and Jost hast not lived up to his draft position he might have made it to 30 points if last season made it to 82 games but still a 10th overall pick with 200 games in the league I mean he not a lost cause but he has to have a year to make someone believe he is going to stick in the league Oconner is a warm body Gilbert the same I mean I get where your coming from they have to fill spots but they do have the flexability to move some dead wood out like Compher and Calvert will be done next year too if not moved or even waived before. Thiis team is poised to throw the window wide open for the next 5 years the addition of another top 4 D guy would even make them better. They are one of the four teams I pull for every year have since I was treated so well back in 2006 when I flew out to attend games they played against the Preds you have one of the best fan bases in the league IMO. Every time I have been to the Pepsi center I have never been abused like other cities I really want to see them duke it out with the Bolts in the finals in the next couple years.

 

[BCNate]

If by 'significant add' you mean a sweetener, there's probably a gap between what teams (only 8 on his approved list) want and what TB is willing to give up at the moment. If the price if too high, TB may be exploring other options to free up cap space first.

Yes, I do mean sweetener, I edited my post to be more clear.

I get that their may be a gap between what teams are asking for vs what TB will offer, I'm speaking more to the posts in pt 1 and pt 2 of this thread. They make TJ sound like a scrub on a beyond toxic deal. Looking at numbers, and having watched a number of TB games over the past few year, I'm not sure I understand why.

 

[8999]

Maybe they can't sign all 3 RFA's and need to give one up (Cernak?) in a trade.

Maybe package with Johnson to get rid of TJ.

Cernak and Johnson to Ottawa/Detroit/Jersey (if TJ agrees).

Agree that keeping all three seems pretty difficult. But realistically more than just Johnson and Killorn need to be moved in order to keep even 2 out of 3 of the RFAs around past a bridge deal.

Using one of them as a sweetener to dump a contract, like you suggested, might be part of the solution, but JBB still needs to figure out the best spot to blow his load like that. e.g., is Gourde harder to move than Johnson, can he gamble on Johnson being moved to Seattle, etc.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Honest question, what am I missing here?

People are trashing on Tyler Johnson here like he is a Loui Erikkson level player,

The last 2 seasons combined he has put up 43 goals, 78 points in 145 games, playing a 3rd line 15 minutes per game with little power play time. The pace for those are 24 goals, 44 points, 15 mins per night. Plug him into a top 6 role and some decent fancy stats, would it be unfathomable to expect that he goes 30 goals 50 points?

I get he is paid 5 mill for 4 more years, which takes him to 34, which is a little high, but if you could get a significant add along with him for free, why wouldn't a team explore it. He has outproduced/put up similar stats to a number of recent signings that have been said to be great deals.

I agree, people here are acting like he totally sucks. He’s not the first line type player he once was but he’s been a solid middle 6 player on the leagues best team for a few years now. He would be a good 2nd liner on a lot of teams.
Regarding his contract, in a normal year he would have positive value. This year, with not only a flat cap, but many teams not even getting near the cap, combined with teams trying to hold Tampa’s feet to the fire, that’s moved him into negative value territory. But it doesn’t mean he’s a bad player or that he couldn’t help out a lot of teams.

 

[Richard88]

You place much more value on those four than I. Towes IMO is a 2.5 mil guy and Jost hast not lived up to his draft position he might have made it to 30 points if last season made it to 82 games but still a 10th overall pick with 200 games in the league I mean he not a lost cause but he has to have a year to make someone believe he is going to stick in the league Oconner is a warm body Gilbert the same I mean I get where your coming from they have to fill spots but they do have the flexability to move some dead wood out like Compher and Calvert will be done next year too if not moved or even waived before. Thiis team is poised to throw the window wide open for the next 5 years the addition of another top 4 D guy would even make them better. They are one of the four teams I pull for every year have since I was treated so well back in 2006 when I flew out to attend games they played against the Preds you have one of the best fan bases in the league IMO. Every time I have been to the Pepsi center I have never been abused like other cities I really want to see them duke it out with the Bolts in the finals in the next couple years.

Happy to hear that you had a good experience.

Regardless of whether Jost/O'Connor/Gilbert are warm bodies or not, $2.5m-3m still needs to be allocated to filling 3 roster spots.

Toews is certainly not a $2.5m Dman. He's going to get around $4m for sure. Graves who is a decent comparable just got $3.16 x 3, and that includes 2 team-controlled years with only 1 UFA year. Conversely, Toews only has 1 year of team control left, so a 3-4 year deal would buy multiple UFA years. His stats are pretty close to Graves, though he has put up higher point totals (thanks to PP time) and that should see him get paid a little more.