Proposal: TVR for Tyler Johnson

[VoluntaryDom]

TJ isn't worse than Stamkos or Kucherov

kuch might be close, stamkos has surpassed him. down the stretch last season stamkos was actually pretty good defensively

 

[indigobuffalo]

I'm trying to convince myself that you just forgot the sarcam emoji and aren't actually that bad at player valuation. Larsson might not have been worth Hall but he's generally accepted to be a good #2. TVR is .... not


Quote all the possession stats you want but good stats in your current spot doesn't usually translate to the same stats in an expanded role.

There is literally an advanced stat for exactly that. It’s called delta Corsi or dCorsi and it measures Possession Performance in Comparison to Expected.

 

[Spazkat]

There is literally an advanced stat for exactly that. It’s called delta Corsi or dCorsi and it measures Possession Performance in Comparison to Expected.

dCorsi is based on current usage and does not extrapolate into greatly increased roles and the possession performance metric is used in soccer not hockey.

Neither of those describes what I was referring to which was expecting performance to remain the same when the role increases greatly in difficulty

 

[indigobuffalo]

dCorsi is based on current usage and does not extrapolate into greatly increased roles and the possession performance metric is used in soccer not hockey.

Neither of those describes what I was referring to which was expecting performance to remain the same when the role increases greatly in difficulty

dCorsi would give a projection of whether or not TVR would be expected to do better against greater QoC than his peers.

Literally every player in the NHL does worse against better QoC but the regression varies.

For example Subban historically has had a very large regression vs higher QoC, yet because he is highly skilled and a great offensive catalyst still used in a lot of situations.

What I understood your point as was that you felt that TVR would be worse at a greater rate than (league average or possibly everyone?) but I was simply saying there’s a variable to check your claim.

 

[BonMorrison]

Watching OP get (rightfully) evicerated by his own fan base in here is so awkward.

 

[DFC]

I’m literally not trolling, TVR has been a top tier possession dman for 2 straight seasons now and would be a smart add by Tampa Bay.

Teddy Purcell had great possession numbers for us, before we traded him for nothing. Possession numbers aren't everything.

 

[DFC]

What he once was isn't what he is now.

...That's exactly what he is now. He is a 50 point center, who shows up in the playoffs.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I’m literally not trolling, TVR has been a top tier possession dman for 2 straight seasons now and would be a smart add by Tampa Bay.

He is a 5/6 defenseman who has played primarily depth minutes. He has good possession numbers because Slavin took the tough assignments. He is a bottom pair, 15 minute per night guy who is easily replaceable.

This is what happens when you read stat pages instead of watching hockey games.

 

[Starat327]

How so?
TVR>Larsson
Johnson<<<<<<Hall

Wow.

 

[Jay haller]

Lol, your kidding right?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

He is a 5/6 defenseman who has played primarily depth minutes. He has good possession numbers because Slavin took the tough assignments. He is a bottom pair, 15 minute per night guy who is easily replaceable.

This is what happens when you read stat pages instead of watching hockey games.

If someone destroys #5/6 minutes, he’s probably not a #5/6 guy.

 

[emptyNedder]

If someone destroys #5/6 minutes, he’s probably not a #5/6 guy.

Because it is fun to go against the consensus (and behavioral economics, the genesis of the analytics boom in sports, has demonstrated it is often more productive), I will somewhat agree with you.

Having watched every Canes' game last season, I think you have a point. TVR would be solid on a second-pairing. He wouldn't be one of the best 2nd pairing RDs in the league because his skating and physicality are not there. But he would be fine because he is positionally strong and doesn't give the puck away in his own end.

If folks want to be insistent on using numbers: he is a very good 5/6; he would be a solid 4; he would be below average compared to those D-men considered 3s across the league.

My opinion is a solid 4 doesn't return a 50-point center, but it is not as far off as some argue.

 

[Sky04]

What he once was isn't what he is now.

You still haven't quantified anything, how much is he overpaid by? What is the going rate for a 50 point center that was an upcoming UFA with good playoff numbers, so tell me how much is fair value for that? 4m? 3.5m? 3m? waiting for you to backup your statement.

 

[A1LeafNation]

...That's exactly what he is now. He is a 50 point center, who shows up in the playoffs.

He's been closer to a 40 point player the last few years since Kuch isn't carrying him anymore.

He hasn't done much in the playoffs the last couple years either.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He's been closer to a 40 point player the last few years since Kuch isn't carrying him anymore.

He hasn't done much in the playoffs the last couple years either.

Huh?

15/16: 38P in 69 games = 45P / 82G
16/17: 45P in 66 games = 56P / 82G
17/18: 50P in 81 games

In 17/18, only 146 out of his 1000+ minutes 5v5 were with Kucherov and he had only 2 points with Kucherov 5v5.

 

[Sky04]

He's been closer to a 40 point player the last few years since Kuch isn't carrying him anymore.

He hasn't done much in the playoffs the last couple years either.

45 points in 66 games, he literally just scored 50 over a full year, but keep peddling.

 

[Jay haller]

Johnson is a fine #2 and unless TVR got really good away from Quenneville he’s a 6-7 on a upper tier team

 

[A1LeafNation]

So you've proven he's injury prone. Congrats.

 

[Sky04]

So you've proven he's injury prone. Congrats.

He played 81 games this season, you can't read apparently. Still waiting for you to quantify how much he's majorly overpaid by. Go on - this should be fun.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So you've proven he's injury prone. Congrats.

Sometimes it's better to quit when you are behind.

 

[CupsOverCash]

So you've proven he's injury prone. Congrats.

I dont know why he has that label. Just because he was injured in the finals that one year doesnt mean hes injury prone.

 

[Bolt32]

He destroyed his third pairing ice time like a man against boys. And at the very least he’s a better Hedman partner than dotchin and Girardi since he doesn’t have to be completely babysat and isn’t a slowpoke. And it alleviates the Johnson cap issue and removes the only below average defensive player from our top-9.

Trading Johnson for TVR doesn't nothing but Regress us. Also as far as TVR being better than Larsson....

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

K caught up to the thread I have a few questions tho

1. TVR is Trevor van Riemsdyk right?
Yes: WHAT THE HELL?
No: then who the hell is TVR?

Actually, just that question will do... thread literally made my head hurt.

 

[DFC]

He's been closer to a 40 point player the last few years since Kuch isn't carrying him anymore.

He hasn't done much in the playoffs the last couple years either.

He's closer to 40 points when he's not healthy, which has been addressed. When he's healthy, like this past year, he's about exactly a 50 point forward. When Kucherov "carries" him, or did "carry" him, he put up 70. Aside from that, his ppg always works out to just about 50 or the equivalent.

And by "last couple of years," you're apparently forgetting it was only the playoffs before last that Johnson put up a point per game. And in this past playoffs, though the numbers weren't there, and though Brayden Point deservedly gets the lion's share of the credit, Johnson was instrumental in shutting down the Bergeron line, and was the guy who dominated Bergeron in the faceoff circle. I'm willing to give him a pass on the numbers not being there for the first time in his career, when he was still doing a lot to help the team. He was our 3rd or 4th best forward in the playoffs.

He's a $5m player as a UFA-aged player under the new cap. There's really no way around it.

 

[AndreRoy]

He's been closer to a 40 point player the last few years since Kuch isn't carrying him anymore.

He hasn't done much in the playoffs the last couple years either.

The Lightning didn’t make the playoffs two years ago, in large part because Johnson was injured for much of the end of the season. And while he wasn’t as good this past postseason as in previous ones (something that can be said of much of the team) he was still one of our top scorers at even strength and created more high danger scoring chances than anyone besides Point.