Revelation
Registered User
- Aug 15, 2016
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If Hasek had Brodeur or Roy's teams/systems in front of him it wouldn't be a debate who the GOATender is. Or, conversely, if either of them had to backstop 90's Buffalo for their prime.
Indeed. Bigger equipment, refining of the most effective goaltender techniques, and better team D (IMO better at strategically taking away the really high percentage opportunities than they used to) has meant that nearly all modern goalies have way better save percentages than nearly all older goalies. Hell, look at the top 25 all time, it includes some pretty mediocre modern goalies like Bernier, Reimer, Halak, Dubnyk, Howard and Hiller. Also, look at 36-38: Manny Fernandez, David Aebischer and Manny Legace, LOL.This just goes to show how insane Hasek was. Obviously not a coincidence that all other goalies are either still playing or (for Thomas) were very recently playing.
The Finnish superstar the Leafs never had. I bet Toronto Finland relations would have been better if we had been able to enjoy Rask...
SV% is strongly correlated with shots faced. The more shots you face, the higher your SV% tends to be.
With low SA numbers, SV% is dictated by randomness and chance. The more shots you face, the less powerful randomness becomes. This SV% can be strongly inflated or deflated by the quality of the defense you play behind.
This, combined with no good way to control for shot quality, makes SV% a painfully incomplete metric for player evaluation.
Not close you say? Ok...You've got to be kidding with this, it's Roy and it's not close. Hasek was the desperation save god of the dead-puck-era, Roy was who you wanted in the post-season when things mattered.
1 1987 FI Tuukka Rask 395 2.24 0.923
2 1965 CZ Dominik Hašek 735 2.20 0.922
3 1986 US Cory Schneider 330 2.28 0.922
4 1989 CA Braden Holtby 307 2.31 0.922
5 1987 CA Carey Price 509 2.40 0.920
6 1974 US Tim Thomas 426 2.52 0.920
7 1988 RU Sergei Bobrovsky330 2.45 0.920
8 1982 SE Henrik Lundqvist742 2.32 0.920
9 1979 CA Roberto Luongo 966 2.50 0.919
10 1986 US Ben Bishop 270 2.32 0.919
So amazing, so good
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-goalies-all-time-save-percentage-leaders.html
1 1987 FI Tuukka Rask 395 2.24 0.923
2 1965 CZ Dominik Hašek 735 2.20 0.922
3 1986 US Cory Schneider 330 2.28 0.922
4 1989 CA Braden Holtby 307 2.31 0.922
5 1987 CA Carey Price 509 2.40 0.920
6 1974 US Tim Thomas 426 2.52 0.920
7 1988 RU Sergei Bobrovsky330 2.45 0.920
8 1982 SE Henrik Lundqvist742 2.32 0.920
9 1979 CA Roberto Luongo 966 2.50 0.919
10 1986 US Ben Bishop 270 2.32 0.919
So amazing, so good
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-goalies-all-time-save-percentage-leaders.html
Seems like SV% goes down based on the number of games played.
I'm a Bruins fan and I like Rask a lot but Hasek was on another level. He was on another level than anyone. Guys maybe have attained that level for one season like Price and Thomas but Hasek did it for a much longer period of time.
By no means do I think OP is comparing Rask to Hasek, Roy etc...I hope not at least
SV% is strongly correlated with shots faced. The more shots you face, the higher your SV% tends to be.
How strong is the correlation?
(EDIT - what I'm trying to do is see if there's a way to quantify this. So if it's true that a goalie is at a disadvantage because he faces more shots than average, can we quantify the impact? I'd rather adjust save percentage if there's a specific factor that affects it, rather than throw it away entirely).
Note: This does NOT account for age. It is simple a look at their first 8 NHL seasons. One interesting thing is their peaks, where Hasek peaked earlier in his career, and Roy much later.
Peak as defined by save percentage?
Because if you're going strictly by save percentage than no way is late 30s Roy better than mid-20s Roy.
You have to keep in mind that the equipment, predominant play style etc. were changing around them through this time.
How strong is the correlation?
(EDIT - what I'm trying to do is see if there's a way to quantify this. So if it's true that a goalie is at a disadvantage because he faces more shots than average, can we quantify the impact? I'd rather adjust save percentage if there's a specific factor that affects it, rather than throw it away entirely).
Here is the "29 or fewer" vs "30 or more" splits for the current Eastern Conference starting goalies. This is only including the games where the goalie played at least 55 minutes, and also does not include games played from this season.
Goaltender | <=29 shots SV% | >=30 shots SV%
Frederick Andersen|.922|.928
Craig Anderson|.899|.928
Ben Bishop|.912|.937
Sergei Bobrovsky|.910|.930
Marc Andre Fleury|.909|.924
Jaroslav Halak|.915|.931
Braden Holtby|.920|.931
Jimmy Howard|.911|.929
Robin Lehner|.899|.930
Henrik Lundqvist|.916|.933
Roberto Luongo|.913|.932
Steve Mason|.901|.929
Carey Price|.910|.931
Tuukka Rask|.916|.936
Cory Schneider|.920|.938
Cam Ward|.899|.927
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Goalie | <=29 shots SV% | >=30 shots SV%
Jake Allen|.919|.928
Corey Crawford|.915|.933
Devan Dubnyk|.903|.928
Brian Elliott|.917|.932
John Gibson|.917|.937
Connor Hellebuyck|.902|.955
Martin Jones|.913|.940
Kari Lehtonen|.909|.923
Ryan Miller|.905|.928
Jonathan Quick|.912|.933
Pekka Rinne|.907|.938
Mike Smith|.902|.929
Cam Talbot|.915|.934
Semyon Varlamov|.906|.931
Going by SV%, yes. First 8 years for Hasek were higher than his his career SV% and Roy's first 8 years were much lower than his career SV%, meaning Roy played better in the last 12 year of his career than the first 8.