First I will paint a very small picture of what we saw from 3 seasons of Turris in Nashville:
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2017-18 - He was basically everything we were looking for in a #2C. The trade looked good. The contract extension looked good. He was consistently used at C, had consistent wingers in Fiala and Smith, and got decent PP time. He went a little invisible in the last month and playoffs though, which had a few of us on his case.
2018-19 - His numbers went way down and he looked more tentative on the ice than ever. Utilization was still fair for him, at least up to the point where his performance simply dictated that he be shuffled back at times. What we didn't really know until it came out later was that in addition to the time he missed with a middle-body injury, he tried to play with a broken foot, had it re-broken, and tried to play again, and basically it became evident that it was fair to write the season off due to his injuries.
2019-20 - Although Turris was back healthy and seemed to be coming off a bit of a reasonable showing in the WC, we signed Duchene so suddenly Turris had no spot in the lineup. He seemed to have all his usual speed and skill back at his disposal, but he just never settled into a role. He's not a primary driver on a line, so when you play him on the 4th line, he's not going to produce. He is not a physical player and seemed to struggle to adjust to playing on the wing. He never developed any chemistry with Duchene or Granlund. He got healthy scratched for a stretch of games by Laviolette. Mostly just as the odd-man out when Laviolette was flailing trying to find a solution. He got to play more in more situations and bumped his numbers up a bit under Hynes, but still didn't really have a consistent line or get to play center all the time.
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So it's a relatively small sample, but my combination of Year 1 viewing of how Turris performed well within his "comfort zone" and the Year 3 viewing of how I thought he looked completely physically capable of contributing the same way but was just held back by a lack of fit in the lineup has led me to formulate this theory on him:
He has a good mix of offensive skills and can play on a #2 scoring line in the NHL. He benefits from having consistent linemates and utilization and at least 2nd unit PP time. He does not engage physically so benefits from playing center with at least one winger who will work in the dirty areas. His big drawback is that he just doesn't seem to be versatile enough to contribute when shifted to the wing or when playing with less talented players on lower lines. He did kill penalties well for us for a time under Hynes, but I wouldn't normally have considered that to be a particular strength of his. He's not strong on faceoffs.
Does it add up to being worth $6M? You'd have to be pretty desperate for that very specific narrow niche that he fills at #2C for him to be worth that to your team. We were in exactly that position of desperation when we acquired him. But he has quickly become redundant now that we don't need him in that narrow stereotypical #2C role anymore. At $4-5M I think he'd be a better investment. And I think the Preds would recognize that and be willing to retain something in the $1-2M range on him in a trade.
I'm pretty sure the Preds would not pay a high draft pick to dump him or buy him out, however. He's just not bad enough for that. Even if he's used in an auxiliary role like last season, or struggles on the wing, he is a decent NHL player and brings some skill to our lineup. He's also a reasonable insurance policy against injuries to Johansen or Duchene for us, because we can be confident that he can immediately replace most of their offense, if not any other parts of their game. So I can't see us paying a high pick or anything just to move him. We are not projecting to have any cap issues, so there just isn't a strong motivation for us to go to that extreme.
The kind of trade I would see is where we trade him for some other team's redundant large contract. We need wingers and depth on D. If there's a team out there who needs a C, then maybe there is a swap that works for both teams. Some trade ideas previously explored along these lines:
Florida - something involving Matheson
Edmonton - for James Neal
Buffalo - we hatched an idea of Miller for Turris ($1.175M retained) + 3rd
If we failed to find a trade along those lines that worked for both teams, I think we would just keep Turris and revisit things next year.
