Tryamkin’s Post-WJC Top 200 January Draft Rankings

McNurse

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Sep 2, 2015
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Tryamkin just letting you know man I really respect you and all the work you do! Always look foward to the lists you put out and your opinion on prospects! But what can you tell me about Dobson and Wilde? I've honestly haven't seen any game footage or highlights of Dobson and hear a few things word of mouth about Wilde, thanks for response my friend :)
 
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JK2K

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Mar 13, 2017
486
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I have seen him play, not to answer for him, and he’s good. As I’ve said before I get leery of only 1 even strength goal. He’s played well, but not sure I’d have him as high as others. Interested in Tryamkin’s take.
 

Tryamkin

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May 18, 2015
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Tryamkin just letting you know man I really respect you and all the work you do! Always look foward to the lists you put out and your opinion on prospects! But what can you tell me about Dobson and Wilde? I've honestly haven't seen any game footage or highlights of Dobson and hear a few things word of mouth about Wilde, thanks for response my friend :)
Thanks!
Dobson is the most well rounded defenseman of the class for sure. He’s got multiple tools in his toolbox that have impressed me lately. Wilde has some good all around aspects too but is a bit more offensively inclined.
 

Tryamkin

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May 18, 2015
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How many times have you seen Dominik Bokk? What were your impressions..is he a true LW or a RW? I've seen several sources list him as RW or occasionally as both.
I really like Bokk. I saw a few more games recently of his (he’s moved up to the SHL so it’s a lot easier). He’s moved up from 45 ish last rankings all the way up to the mid 1st. He’s right handed, but I’ve seen him play left wing more, so he can really play both.
 
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TheGoldenJet

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Apr 2, 2008
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I really like Bokk. I saw a few more games recently of his (he’s moved up to the SHL so it’s a lot easier). He’s moved up from 45 ish last rankings all the way up to the mid 1st. He’s right handed, but I’ve seen him play left wing more, so he can really play both.

Thanks for that. Keep up the good work!
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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I won't quibble, but I think Boqvist over Zadina is an easy call.

Quinn Hughes is way too high. Like 10 spots too high. Oliver Wahlstrom is way too high, like 10-15 spots too high. Evan Bouchard is way too high, 15-20 spots. I think you have Ty Smith a little low, Jett Woo like 5-10 spots too high, Merkley is a not a first rounder in my opinion until he shows better defense. We see this story every year with guys like that. Kotkaniemi is a little low, but you at least have him top 15. I think most are putting him way too low. I'm not sure Lundestrom is a first rounder. Good skater and works hard, but not a lot else. I think Joe Veleno is about 10 spots too high, Jack McBain too spots too high. I think you have Alexeyev way too high, like 20-25 spots too high, Groulx as well who I see a lot ranking very high, despite his lack of offense.

I think you are way too low on Hallander and Kravtsov. If they were playing in Canada, I think they'd be recognized as top 15 picks, maybe 10 top. Galenyuk is like 20 spots too low. And where you have him is most likely where he goes, but thats probably going to be what happens due to how poorly NHL teams scout Russia.

I don't think Sandin is a second rounder, not with his skating. Jonatan Berggren is about 30 spots too low, Wise about 40 spots. I think Topping is about a round too low, Dostal maybe two rounds too low, I think at this point he's competing for the top goalie in the draft with Skarek. Ingham is talented, but the production is just not there. Miftakhov is way too low, but he's a Russian goalie, and we know what happens here. Sorokin went undrafted his first draft, Shestyorkin went in the 4th round. Miftakhov is 2-3 rounder, in my opinion. He's a little small for a goalie, but he's one of the best goalies in this draft, and I don't think his size should really hurt him. There is always a place for guys who stop the puck, regardless of how tall they are. Zhuravlyov and Shafigullin are another two who I think are way too low. Second rounders, in my opinion. But its hard to rank Russian players playing in Russia because NHL teams are very often wrong with where they draft them.

I think its important to keep in mind that Russian players drafted out of NA are very often less successful than those who are drafted out of Russia, so outside of Svechnikov and Khovanov, I'm not sure any of the ones playing in NA should be ranked on this list.

Ragnarsson is too low, Lundkvist is too low. Those two should be picked in the earlier rounds, in my opinion.
 

Tryamkin

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I won't quibble, but I think Boqvist over Zadina is an easy call.

Quinn Hughes is way too high. Like 10 spots too high. Oliver Wahlstrom is way too high, like 10-15 spots too high. Evan Bouchard is way too high, 15-20 spots. I think you have Ty Smith a little low, Jett Woo like 5-10 spots too high, Merkley is a not a first rounder in my opinion until he shows better defense. We see this story every year with guys like that. Kotkaniemi is a little low, but you at least have him top 15. I think most are putting him way too low. I'm not sure Lundestrom is a first rounder. Good skater and works hard, but not a lot else. I think Joe Veleno is about 10 spots too high, Jack McBain too spots too high. I think you have Alexeyev way too high, like 20-25 spots too high, Groulx as well who I see a lot ranking very high, despite his lack of offense.

I think you are way too low on Hallander and Kravtsov. If they were playing in Canada, I think they'd be recognized as top 15 picks, maybe 10 top. Galenyuk is like 20 spots too low. And where you have him is most likely where he goes, but thats probably going to be what happens due to how poorly NHL teams scout Russia.

I don't think Sandin is a second rounder, not with his skating. Jonatan Berggren is about 30 spots too low, Wise about 40 spots. I think Topping is about a round too low, Dostal maybe two rounds too low, I think at this point he's competing for the top goalie in the draft with Skarek. Ingham is talented, but the production is just not there. Miftakhov is way too low, but he's a Russian goalie, and we know what happens here. Sorokin went undrafted his first draft, Shestyorkin went in the 4th round. Miftakhov is 2-3 rounder, in my opinion. He's a little small for a goalie, but he's one of the best goalies in this draft, and I don't think his size should really hurt him. There is always a place for guys who stop the puck, regardless of how tall they are. Zhuravlyov and Shafigullin are another two who I think are way too low. Second rounders, in my opinion. But its hard to rank Russian players playing in Russia because NHL teams are very often wrong with where they draft them.

I think its important to keep in mind that Russian players drafted out of NA are very often less successful than those who are drafted out of Russia, so outside of Svechnikov and Khovanov, I'm not sure any of the ones playing in NA should be ranked on this list.

Ragnarsson is too low, Lundkvist is too low. Those two should be picked in the earlier rounds, in my opinion.
I highly disagree on most of your points, but I’ll keep it clean. These rankings are all off of my own opinion and viewings. I think it’s kinda unfair to nitpick when you don’t really have a list yourself but I digress. Most of the guys in the last 100, I’ve only viewed once or twice so my knowledge is a little shaky.
 

Castle8130

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May 9, 2017
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I highly disagree on most of your points, but I’ll keep it clean. These rankings are all off of my own opinion and viewings. I think it’s kinda unfair to nitpick when you don’t really have a list yourself but I digress. Most of the guys in the last 100, I’ve only viewed once or twice so my knowledge is a little shaky.
His ideas are whack man, the list is solid. Hughes is guaranteed top 10 lol. He's probably one of those guys that has Merkley at 5.
 

Tryamkin

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His ideas are whack man, the list is solid. Hughes is guaranteed top 10 lol. He's probably one of those guys that has Merkley at 5.
Actually he’s a polar opposite, he said he doesn’t think Merkley belongs in the first round :laugh:. I agree though, thanks for the continued support.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,620
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New York
I highly disagree on most of your points, but I’ll keep it clean. These rankings are all off of my own opinion and viewings. I think it’s kinda unfair to nitpick when you don’t really have a list yourself but I digress. Most of the guys in the last 100, I’ve only viewed once or twice so my knowledge is a little shaky.

I didn't mean my comment in an offensive way. If it seemed that way, I apologize. You asked for input, I thought thats what you wanted.

And I do have a list. Its in the middle of the page on this link. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/draft-and-udfa-thread-2017-18.2363041/page-23
 

Tryamkin

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May 18, 2015
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I didn't mean my comment in an offensive way. If it seemed that way, I apologize. You asked for input, I thought thats what you wanted.

And I do have a list. Its in the middle of the page on this link. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/draft-and-udfa-thread-2017-18.2363041/page-23
Opinion \=\ “This guy SHOULD be way higher or lower”

Everyone has their own opinion, there is no “right” opinion. From what I’ve said, I strongly disagree with a lot of things that you said, but I don’t really wanna start some sort of war in the middle of the thread.
 

Dodospice

Registered User
Jan 19, 2012
1,054
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Thanks!
Busby is very intriguing to me. I don’t think it will screw him long term, young kids get injured in their draft year all the time and can bounce back. I do however think that it will lower his draft position in comparison to where he would’ve went healthy. In that circumstance I can absolutely see him being a draft steal. Khovanov is another one of those. Easily a 1st round talent but underexposed due to being out with Hep A the entire year.

It’s probably not a long term issue but you always hate to see a kid lose a year of development like that. In Khovanov’s case at least he was able to get back on the ice and playing games down the stretch, who knows how long it will take him to get back to full speed (doubt it really happens this year) but he is still a 1st round talent in my eyes.
 
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Castle8130

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May 9, 2017
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Actually he’s a polar opposite, he said he doesn’t think Merkley belongs in the first round :laugh:. I agree though, thanks for the continued support.
Lol I actually might agree with the fact Merkleys not a first rounder, but everyones got their own opinion.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,957
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Toronto
Really? Then they are pretty lazy in their job.
Teams don't rank much more than 100 players because they don't think grading people they don't think are worth drafting is worth their time. They've had their scouts evaluate them and generally have 20 or more reports by their scouts. If they've decided someone is an ND (No-Draft), whats the point in ranking them.

If they run out of names on a list, they'll turn to a veteran scout or let the scouts debate drafting someone they don't have enough viewings on. This is exactly what happened with Datsyuk who the Red Wings only had 2 viewings of with both by the same scout (Haken Anderson).

In general, teams don't run out of names even if they only rank 100 or so players (they don't have a firm number, they rank as many players as they deem are worthy of being drafted). They rarely run out of names.
 

QJL

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Jan 2, 2014
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This is my favorite Tryamkin list yet. Good work and accurate up/down movement based on performances since the December ranking.
 
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kabidjan18

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Apr 20, 2015
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I want to say of course that I appreciate your effort. Obviously, any list of 200 people is going to be wildly inaccurate. However, it is a fun exercise, and I enjoy reading it.

I think fans struggle greatly to understand the value of a player like Tkachuk because obviously they only look for the things that are most immediately apparent. And I don't want to seem above that, I certainly do that as well. What makes Tkachuk so good? He rarely handles the puck. All the goals he makes are kinda easy, just stands in front of the net mostly and deflects stuff or snipes stuff from up close. He's not fast. He's not doing all these dangles left and right. He's not really a long distance sniper. I wouldn't say he's particularly athletic. People love to use the word offensive potential. He doesn't have the tools, it seems, therefore he doesn't have the offensive potential.

Recently the USHL top prospects game was played, and the corresponding combine. Martin Pospisil, pre-season B-list draft prospect finished top 5 in skating forward, with the puck, skating backwards I believe as well, he got the third highest combine score. Incredible skater, one of the fastest guys. When I watched him earlier in the season in the USHL, I said he looked slow and I said that because he did. His production has picked up as he's adjusted to NA hockey, but he started the season with something like 4 points in 20 games. He's just one example of many individuals. Most the kids who come from Europe don't struggle with the skills, in fact they're often some of the best in terms of skills. They don't struggle because they don't skate fast enough or stickhandle well enough or shoot hard enough. The ones who struggle, often struggle because they don't think the game fast enough. That's why, outside of a handful of exception, players who have played senior level hockey in Europe outperform players that haven't by a strong margin. They're accustomed to having to think the game at a high level.

Brady Tkachuk thinks the game at a high level. At the higher levels of hockey, you have to make decisions under extreme pressure, often physical, and with extremely limited time, often instantaneously. You have to make decisions with limited knowledge, often from precarious positions, and you have to make correct decisions. Tkachuk makes correct decisions at a relatively high frequency, and not only that he makes them look common sense. When you watch him, every good decision he does people think "Well that's the obvious correct choice. His teammate was right there. The puck was right there. He was just in the right place at the right time." But the reality is, in the same situation most other athletes won't be standing in the right place. They won't pass to the right guy. They'll shoot when they should pass, pass when they should shoot, try to make a move when they should find an outlet, look for an outlet when they should just make a move. Tkachuk makes making the right decision look easy.

And I'm not saying he never makes incorrect decisions, or other elite prospects make poor decisions with great frequency. However, when someone keeps getting lucky over and over again it's probably because they're not just getting lucky. People, myself included, love athletes who are active with their skates, so much so that we discount or disregard players who are active with their minds instead.
 
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Tryamkin

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May 18, 2015
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I want to say of course that I appreciate your effort. Obviously, any list of 200 people is going to be wildly inaccurate. However, it is a fun exercise, and I enjoy reading it.

I think fans struggle greatly to understand the value of a player like Tkachuk because obviously they only look for the things that are most immediately apparent. And I don't want to seem above that, I certainly do that as well. What makes Tkachuk so good? He rarely handles the puck. All the goals he makes are kinda easy, just stands in front of the net mostly and deflects stuff or snipes stuff from up close. He's not fast. He's not doing all these dangles left and right. He's not really a long distance sniper. I wouldn't say he's particularly athletic. People love to use the word offensive potential. He doesn't have the tools, it seems, therefore he doesn't have the offensive potential.

Recently the USHL top prospects game was played, and the corresponding combine. Martin Pospisil, pre-season B-list draft prospect finished top 5 in skating forward, with the puck, skating backwards I believe as well, he got the third highest combine score. Incredible skater, one of the fastest guys. When I watched him earlier in the season in the USHL, I said he looked slow and I said that because he did. His production has picked up as he's adjusted to NA hockey, but he started the season with something like 4 points in 20 games. He's just one example of many individuals. Most the kids who come from Europe don't struggle with the skills, in fact they're often some of the best in terms of skills. They don't struggle because they don't skate fast enough or stickhandle well enough or shoot hard enough. The ones who struggle, often struggle because they don't think the game fast enough. That's why, outside of a handful of exception, players who have played senior level hockey in Europe outperform players that haven't by a strong margin. They're accustomed to having to think the game at a high level.

Brady Tkachuk thinks the game at a high level. At the higher levels of hockey, you have to make decisions under extreme pressure, often physical, and with extremely limited time, often instantaneously. You have to make decisions with limited knowledge, often from precarious positions, and you have to make correct decisions. Tkachuk makes correct decisions at a relatively high frequency, and not only that he makes them look common sense. When you watch him, every good decision he does people think "Well that's the obvious correct choice. His teammate was right there. The puck was right there. He was just in the right place at the right time." But the reality is, in the same situation most other athletes won't be standing in the right place. They won't pass to the right guy. They'll shoot when they should pass, pass when they should shoot, try to make a move when they should find an outlet, look for an outlet when they should just make a move. Tkachuk makes making the right decision look easy.

And I'm not saying he never makes incorrect decisions, or other elite prospects make poor decisions with great frequency. However, when someone keeps getting lucky over and over again it's probably because they're not just getting lucky. People, myself included, love athletes who are active with their skates, so much so that we discount or disregard players who are active with their minds instead.
I don’t undervalue or undermine Tkachuk at all, he would go a lot higher if this was a mock draft, but these are my personal ranking, and I’m not very high on him. Thank you for your support and opinion. I agree he’s a valuable player, but I’m not a personal fan. I wouldn’t be happy if my team selected him.
 
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hawkeerox

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Jan 2, 2018
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What amazes me is the lack of strong centers in this draft esp. on your list.
No centers until #15, and the ones that are in the bottom half of round 1 are pretty questionable, according to many scouting reports
Veleno has been falling, McBain is not tearing the OJHL up that is for sure, the european centres have hockey iq issues, apparently and so so. The D guys and wingers seem to be the BPAs.
How many centres will actually get drafted in the first round, I wonder... i think some of the late first round centres on the lists will suddenly end up in second round on draft day because they are not consistent enough and the gms don't want their teams to "reach" for risky players who may seem to have upside but likely will not pan out.
 

Tryamkin

Registered User
May 18, 2015
8,266
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Canada
What amazes me is the lack of strong centers in this draft esp. on your list.
No centers until #15, and the ones that are in the bottom half of round 1 are pretty questionable, according to many scouting reports
Veleno has been falling, McBain is not tearing the OJHL up that is for sure, the european centres have hockey iq issues, apparently and so so. The D guys and wingers seem to be the BPAs.
How many centres will actually get drafted in the first round, I wonder... i think some of the late first round centres on the lists will suddenly end up in second round on draft day because they are not consistent enough and the gms don't want their teams to "reach" for risky players who may seem to have upside but likely will not pan out.
Right, so this is my personal evaluation of each player and how good I think they will be using only my own viewings and analysis, this doesn’t factor in positional or hype based factors. Centers will be picked higher than they are on my list, due to some teams needing them, but I see a very low center class without a doubt. Any team that selects Tkachuk looking for a center will be dissapointed.
 

AveryStar4Eva

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Aug 28, 2014
7,453
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Awesome list looks like lots of effort was put into it. Just double checking, this is your list of who you think are the most talented player and not where you think they will be drafted, correct?

Side note: Best name in the draft has to go to Matthew Grouchy right?
 
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Tryamkin

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May 18, 2015
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Awesome list looks like lots of effort was put into it. Just double checking, this is your list of who you think are the most talented player and not where you think they will be drafted, correct?

Side note: Best name in the draft has to go to Matthew Grouchy right?
Correct, as explained in the above post, players like Tkachuk and Veleno will be taken ahead of where I have them due to “intangible value” I like to call it.

Brendan Budy is my personal favourite name.
 
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hawkeerox

Registered User
Jan 2, 2018
225
46
Great list, so thanks for sharing. I am always interested how the draft day results compare with the rankings by knowledgeable fans of the game...
 
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