"True Possession" stat?

[lomiller1]

Intuitively, "true possession" is much more depentant from assists/passes (and Passing/assist chains) then to SOG.

If it doesn't get you wins who cares what it depends on? The point of the game is to score more goals than the other team, and CF% predicts goals and wins better than "true possession"

 

[93LEAFS]

Players shot profiles generally follow them throughout their career. There can be exceptions of course, but you supposition that more shots means lower quality shots is simply wrong. Most really good scoring chances come off rebounds and deflections of longer shots so the number you get correlates directly to the number of longer shot attempts you take, this is why coaches have been telling players "shot the puck" for so many decades.



Raw Corsi is only usefull for intra- team comparisons because it depends heavily on how the team performs around the player. Rel Corsi, however tends to follow players though their career and therefor makes a good comparison point between players on different teams.

Rel is way more important, but obviously, in some cases, it is worthwhile to somewhat examine what a player's raw numbers are. The reason I say this is, there is a big difference between being dominant possession-wise in the fashion Nathan Mackinnon is relative to his terrible teammates, compared to someone like Bergeron who is not only dominant relative wise but has among the best raw in the league. If you were to find some balance its probably something like 90 to 95 value in Rel with, the raw being somewhat weighted.

 

[lomiller1]

Rel is way more important, but obviously, in some cases, it is worthwhile to somewhat examine what a player's raw numbers are.

For players on the same team who play regularly comparing raw and relative Cosi amounts to almost the same thing. Of course it's easier just to look at Rel Corsi for everyone, but in my answer above I wanted to allow for the fact you could use Raw Corsi in similar ways under some circumstances.

 

[Ola]

I think it's unbelievable how you never (?) see anyone actually just process true possession numbers by themselves? All you need is a game available and a stop watch/clock app on a phone or whatever.

In Sweden one guy does it. Yet I've seen people spend lives, ok years, looking at shot stats without taking one effin out to produce the real numbers lol. Get some solid compareables. See some trends, when does it work and when doesn't it.

Do some real work instead of all these ridiculous chasing for magic formulas that don't exist!!

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Not that this wasn't kind of obvious before:

I just ran several statistical tests around CF% and FF% (possession stats), and there really isn't any correlation between them and point production.

 

[Stephen]

More thinking about true possession:

-Time recorded in certain vectors: forward, backwards, laterally. Certainly a player who is moving forward up the ice is getting something done compared to a player who is moving backwards constantly. This can be broken down by zone time, time with the actual puck or without, speed: is he a relentless forechecker, does he primarily carry the puck up the ice, etc. Just find a way to generate the data and make sense of it later.

 

[morehockeystats]

The bigger question actually is, "Is 'possession' that important?"