Value of: Trouba for T. Johnson +

ccman68

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Dec 9, 2017
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Point>>>>Trouba btw. I have no idea why people are even mentioning his name.
 
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Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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I'd be glad to up the ante by including 10th overall defenceman Slater Koekkoek.

I’m afraid that would cost the Jets Kyle Connor the 31 goal rookie also. Pass on the Bolts they’re players too expensive, sooner look at Florida or some other eastern based team.
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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The problem with this thread (and threads like it) is that people keep conflating three different scenarios:

1) The player is already signed long term AND his current team has no need to trade him. In this scenario the player’s value is at its highest; if this were the case then of course neither Foote nor Johnson would be sufficient on their own to return Trouba.

2) The player is already signed long term BUT his current team has to trade him. This is usually because a team has cap issues and needs to trade a player already under contract to create space; it would also include the mythical “sign and trade” situation that fans of teams with impending UFAs always insist will happen but which never actually occur in real life. The player’s market value is lowered in most cases because his current team no longer has the option of keeping him if they don’t like the best offer (you can think of that option as a reserve price in an eBay auction: with it you’re assured of at least getting the minimum price you’d be happy with, but without it you’re stuck taking the highest bid whether or not you like it.) In this case Trouba’s value would depend on the number of bidders and how high they would be willing to go; from Tampa’s perspective we could afford to give up Foote in this scenario because we’d be assured of getting Trouba on a long term deal.

3) The player is being traded without an extension in advance. In this scenario the player’s value is significantly lower even with a verbal agreement on an extension (a “trade and sign”, which unlike the mythical “sign and trade” actually happens in the real world) because the buying team has no guarantee beyond the years currently on the player’s contract. In this case Trouba would certainly not return Foote; Johnson might be a possibility IF the Lightning were either willing to gamble that they can convince Trouba to resign or wanted to use Trouba for a Cup run or two and then use the freed up cap space for some other purpose.

Since “sign and trades” don’t happen in the real world and Trouba won’t be extended unless the Jets can afford to keep him, scenario 2 doesn’t apply here. So it all comes down to whether or not you think a longterm deal between Trouba and the Jets is realistic. If you think it is then a trade isn’t going to happen in the first place, but if a trade does happen it will be under scenario 3 and Trouba’s market value will be based on his remaining term, NOT what his value would be with a longterm deal.
 
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CupsOverCash

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Except Golden State wins championships.

Agreed tired of that comparison. Plus NBA and NHL are totally different sports. Just because you have a big name or two on your team doesnt mean you are an automatic Cup winner.
 

Revelation

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Sergachev could easily never develop and round out his defensive game while remaining a PP specialist. That’s the fun thing about hypotheticals

You'd be betting against his development curve. It's easier to bet on Trouba regressing or never developing an offensive upside given how up and down his career has been. Sergachev already showed more last playoffs than Trouba ever had
 
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Snowman

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You'd be betting against his development curve. It's easier to bet on Trouba regressing or never developing an offensive upside given how up and down his career has been. Sergachev already showed more last playoffs than Trouba ever had
Except Sergachev plays in a sheltered 3/4 D role where Trouba plays a top pairing shut down role and beats them consistently. Sergachev may get there someday, but he just as easily might not.
Right now Trouba>>>>Sergachev. There is no argument to be made to the contrary. Unless you're viewing it through homer goggles.
 
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AndreRoy

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How about if a player is under contract and the team does not need to trade him?

This best describes Trouba and the Jets.

Scavengers looking for a distress sale are dialling the wrong number.

He’s under contract but with only two years of team control. You don’t need to trade him but if you do you’re getting the value that two years of his services is worth - which is nowhere near Point or Sergachev and given the Lightning’s needs and Yzerman’s history is also highly unlikely to include Foote.
 

AndreRoy

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Except Sergachev plays in a sheltered 3/4 D role where Trouba plays a top pairing shut down role and beats them consistently. Sergachev may get there someday, but he just as easily might not.
Right now Trouba>>>>Sergachev. There is no argument to be made to the contrary. Unless you're viewing it through homer goggles.

Except Sergachev just scored 40 pts as a 19yo rookie and still has two ELC seasons at <$900k with several years of team control after that. Even in a vacuum Trouba is not “>>>>” Sergachev (he’s better but nowhere close to that extent) and when you take age, cap hit, and years of control into account his value is not even “>” Sergachev's. Unless you’re viewing it through homer goggles.
 

Ciao

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He’s under contract but with only two years of team control. You don’t need to trade him but if you do you’re getting the value that two years of his services is worth - which is nowhere near Point or Sergachev and given the Lightning’s needs and Yzerman’s history is also highly unlikely to include Foote.

I'm a Leafs fan and really couldn't care less whether the Jets trade Trouba or not.

When the OP includes a reference to the Jets possibly losing Trouba for nothing, that has "bargain" written all over it.

I very much doubt that Jets management would fell any pressure to trade Trouba now or in the future. My guess is they would tell bargain-hunters to go to Hell; and that Jets fans might feel much the same.
 

Snowman

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Except Sergachev just scored 40 pts as a 19yo rookie and still has two ELC seasons at <$900k with several years of team control after that. Even in a vacuum Trouba is not “>>>>” Sergachev (he’s better but nowhere close to that extent) and when you take age, cap hit, and years of control into account his value is not even “>” Sergachev's. Unless you’re viewing it through homer goggles.
The post I was referring to the skill of the players and not the values. Skill wise, Trouba is much better, so the point I made still stands.

Value wise, it is subjective. However, Trouba's value hasn't dropped nearly as much as most HF posters want to believe.
 
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Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Think Tampa will have to add to Johnson if they want Trouba. I'm thinking Sergachev would have to be included as well.

Wouldn’t even want Johnson as part of a package personally......he might not be even in my top 100 players/prospects I would look at as a realistic return.
 
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AndreRoy

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I'm a Leafs fan and really couldn't care less whether the Jets trade Trouba or not.

When the OP includes a reference to the Jets possibly losing Trouba for nothing, that has "bargain" written all over it.

I very much doubt that Jets management would fell any pressure to trade Trouba now or in the future. My guess is they would tell bargain-hunters to go to Hell; and that Jets fans might feel much the same.

Well I’m not the OP, don’t think a trade for Trouba is practical for the Lightning, and agree that the Jets have no need to trade him for a bargain price at the moment. I just take issue with some of the Jets’ fans evaluations of our players’ values versus theirs and their inability to understand the effect term and cap hit have on value, so I’m debating those matters here.
 

AndreRoy

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I'm a Leafs fan and really couldn't care less whether the Jets trade Trouba or not.

When the OP includes a reference to the Jets possibly losing Trouba for nothing, that has "bargain" written all over it.

I very much doubt that Jets management would fell any pressure to trade Trouba now or in the future. My guess is they would tell bargain-hunters to go to Hell; and that Jets fans might feel much the same.

Well I’m not the OP, don’t think a trade for Trouba is practical for the Lightning, and agree that the Jets have no need to trade him for a bargain price at the moment. I just take issue with some of the Jets’ fans evaluations of our players’ values versus theirs and their inability to understand the effect term and cap hit have on value, so I’m debating those matters here.
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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The post I was referring to the skill of the players and not the values. Skill wise, Trouba is much better, so the point I made still stands.

Value wise, it is subjective. However, Trouba's value hasn't dropped nearly as much as most HF posters want to believe.

Even skillwise it’s not a massive difference. Trouba is the better defender by a good margin but offensively it’s pretty close.

And I don’t think Trouba’s value has dropped so much as I think it’s limited by the fact that he has only two years of team control remaining and that Sergachev’s value as one of the best young defensemen in the league with two years remaining on his ELC is extremely high.
 

AndreRoy

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Think Tampa will have to add to Johnson if they want Trouba. I'm thinking Sergachev would have to be included as well.

I can understand if the Jets aren’t interested in Johnson given their team needs. But he’s a solid 2C with years of team control at a very reasonable cap hit - IF we were willing to trade Johnson for Trouba we certainly wouldn’t be adding to him given that Trouba has only two years of team control. And due in part to that same reason Sergachev has considerably more value than Trouba; the idea that you would not only get him but Johnson as well is simply laughable.
 

AndreRoy

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Wouldn’t even want Johnson as part of a package personally......he might not be even in my top 100 players/prospects I would look at as a realistic return.

Not wanting him is one thing, but a top six center on a very reasonably priced longterm deal is more than enough to constitute a realistic return for a very good defenseman with only two years before he hits UFA status. Again, I’m not saying the Jets should trade Trouba for Johnson - only that the value is fair when you consider all the factors.
 

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