Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part IV)

[1909]

It depends. For which reasons he should be fired?

For a full decade of failure. Not enough for you ?

 

[ahmedou]

For a full decade of failure. Not enough for you ?

I didn't be able to make a full consensus on Timmins. He failed and succeed on the same time. Was he given too much responsibilities during his early years as a Hab scout?

 

[montreal]

For a full decade of failure. Not enough for you ?

I don't see it as a decade of failure, and I think clearly more blame falls on the coaching staffs at both levels and management for rushing 19/20 year olds that didn't look ready. Lots of poor decisions that certainly didn't help matters.

If you look at every head scout the Habs have had since the '70's, up until 2002 not one ever had less then 8 picks in a draft in 32 years. So if you took the last 49 drafts and looked up who had the least amount of picks in 10 of those 49 drafts 9 of them were under Timmins. Then add in that 6 of those 9 drafts he had 1 top 70 pick each year.

He's made mistakes for sure as every scout will but he's also made some very good picks. He's had 1 out of 16 1st round picks that failed to appear in an NHL game, wonder how many head scouts can say that.

Then you have to add in since 2013 we don't know what say/pull/impact that Churla has had.

 

[1909]

I don't see it as a decade of failure, and I think clearly more blame falls on the coaching staffs at both levels and management for rushing 19/20 year olds that didn't look ready. Lots of poor decisions that certainly didn't help matters.

If you look at every head scout the Habs have had since the '70's, up until 2002 not one ever had less then 8 picks in a draft in 32 years. So if you took the last 49 drafts and looked up who had the least amount of picks in 10 of those 49 drafts 9 of them were under Timmins. Then add in that 6 of those 9 drafts he had 1 top 70 pick each year.

He's made mistakes for sure as every scout will but he's also made some very good picks. He's had 1 out of 16 1st round picks that failed to appear in an NHL game, wonder how many head scouts can say that.

Then you have to add in since 2013 we don't know what say/pull/impact that Churla has had.

Quantity doesn't mean Quality.

 

[montreal]

Quantity doesn't mean Quality.

it's about having the best odds, as the stats on picks outside the top 10, top 20, top 30, 50, etc.. they quickly take a nose dive once you start getting later in the 1st and beyond. When you handicap your scout, it's not his fault, and it doesn't help when you have people in place that had ZERO experience at their job before being hired. You had a head coach and GM that had NEVER been a head coach or GM before. there's no telling what impact that has as EVERY single draft pick from the top 2 rounds was rushed to the NHL outside of Scherbak and he missed over a year of development time to injury.

 

[Chili]

I didn't be able to make a full consensus on Timmins. He failed and succeed on the same time. Was he given too much responsibilities during his early years as a Hab scout?

If we had access to the teams draft lists and scouting reports , it would tell how accurate they have been with their projections over the years.

But all we see is the results and we've been told it's a results business.

The results in NHL players in comparison to the rest of the league have not been there.

Picks like Juulsen, Poehling, Primeau and Romanov give some hope the scouts are finally identifying players (beyond the very high picks)who will help the NHL team.

 

[montreal]

If we had access to the teams draft lists and scouting reports , it would tell how accurate they have been with their projections over the years.

But all we see is the results and we've been told it's a results business.

The results in NHL players in comparison to the rest of the league have not been there.

Picks like Juulsen, Poehling, Primeau and Romanov give some hope the scouts are finally identifying players (beyond the very high picks)who will help the NHL team.

agreed, if we had all teams lists it would certainly make things easier to rank them. But we don't even know how much say someone has as we can only guess what Churla or other scouts opinions matter to what degree.

But they have identified players beyond the high picks that helped the team. The problem was the mid years of Timmins drafts as he brought in Halak, Streit, Lappy, Grabo, Gallagher, Emelin then some dark years over the past 6 and now there's hope that changes to the development team, coaching staffs, and hopefully not rushing 20 year old kids to the NHL that aren't ready. This was the first year under a new AHL coach that we didn't rush a 20 year old to the NHL that was a top 3 round pick (Fleury) so hopefully that trend continues.

 

[Chili]

agreed, if we had all teams lists it would certainly make things easier to rank them. But we don't even know how much say someone has as we can only guess what Churla or other scouts opinions matter to what degree.

But they have identified players beyond the high picks that helped the team. The problem was the mid years of Timmins drafts as he brought in Halak, Streit, Lappy, Grabo, Gallagher, Emelin then some dark years over the past 6 and now there's hope that changes to the development team, coaching staffs, and hopefully not rushing 20 year old kids to the NHL that aren't ready. This was the first year under a new AHL coach that we didn't rush a 20 year old to the NHL that was a top 3 round pick (Fleury) so hopefully that trend continues.

The period of about 2003 to 2007, the Habs appear to have had very strong lists, results are there. It's the period of 2008 to 2014 ish where someone scratchs their head.

I don't point fingers, Churla, Timmins, the results reflect on the group, good or bad. They must have multiple viewings of players they like by different scouts.

It's clear you follow the AHL closely. I was listening to an AHL game this winter against the Devils farm team. The Devils had 12 or 14 draft picks (plus a couple of unsigned draftees) and only 3 AHL vets. In comparison I believe the Habs had 6 draftees. Take from that what you will but when is the last time there were 10+ drafted players on the Habs AHL team? It seems like each year I look at their roster and see very few Habs picks. When the Habs draft picks aren't even making the AHL roster, it's clear they are not prospects.

If I ever had the time/inclination I would do an AHL/NHL analysis, based on the average number of games played in the AHL by NHL player. The last time I did the Habs roster it was under AHL 100 games average. Which translates to just over one season. The real prospects usually rise very quickly. Someone can give an drafting/development breakdown importance, it depends on the individual player but if you go through the rosters, I found it's a short time to make an impression or the team moves on. I put a much heavier weight on the drafting end.

There are positive signs lately. What I would like to see is a Laval roster full of draft picks and let them push each other to be better. That's the way it was way back when the Habs were winning (both in the NHL and AHL in the 1970's).

 

[montreal]

The period of about 2003 to 2007, the Habs appear to have had very strong lists, results are there. It's the period of 2008 to 2014 ish where someone scratchs their head.

I don't point fingers, Churla, Timmins, the results reflect on the group, good or bad. They must have multiple viewings of players they like by different scouts.

It's clear you follow the AHL closely. I was listening to an AHL game this winter against the Devils farm team. The Devils had 12 or 14 draft picks (plus a couple of unsigned draftees) and only 3 AHL vets. In comparison I believe the Habs had 6 draftees. Take from that what you will but when is the last time there were 10+ drafted players on the Habs AHL team? It seems like each year I look at their roster and see very few Habs picks. When the Habs draft picks aren't even making the AHL roster, it's clear they are not prospects.

If I ever had the time/inclination I would do an AHL/NHL analysis, based on the average number of games played in the AHL by NHL player. The last time I did the Habs roster it was under AHL 100 games average. Which translates to just over one season. The real prospects usually rise very quickly. Someone can give an drafting/development breakdown importance, it depends on the individual player but if you go through the rosters, I found it's a short time to make an impression or the team moves on. I put a much heavier weight on the drafting end.

There are positive signs lately. What I would like to see is a Laval roster full of draft picks and let them push each other to be better. That's the way it was way back when the Habs were winning (both in the NHL and AHL in the 1970's).

Well when you trade away picks it certainly doesn't help the farm system. But this year was more about a lack of incoming rookies since '17 and '18 had the high number of picks.

This year Laval had 11 draft picks + 7 undrafted FA signed to NHL contracts (all but Lindgren were U-21 signees) but due to injuries only 6 draft picks played more then 50ish games as McCarron and Juulsen missed so much time to injury, Mete called back up, Scherbak they didn't wish to pick up off waivers.

Last year they had 10 draft picks + 7 undrafted FA's. But only 5 or 6 draft picks played more then 45ish games as Scherbak, Juulsen were called up to the NHL.

The year before that they had 13 + 5 undraft FA's.

They year before that they had 21 + 4 undrafted FA's. But 7 of those 20 played less then 30ish games.

 

[Chili]

Well when you trade away picks it certainly doesn't help the farm system. But this year was more about a lack of incoming rookies since '17 and '18 had the high number of picks.

This year Laval had 11 draft picks + 7 undrafted FA signed to NHL contracts (all but Lindgren were U-21 signees) but due to injuries only 6 draft picks played more then 50ish games as McCarron and Juulsen missed so much time to injury, Mete called back up, Scherbak they didn't wish to pick up off waivers.

Last year they had 10 draft picks + 7 undrafted FA's. But only 5 or 6 draft picks played more then 45ish games as Scherbak, Juulsen were called up to the NHL.

The year before that they had 13 + 5 undraft FA's.

They year before that they had 21 + 4 undrafted FA's. But 7 of those 20 played less then 30ish games.

With all the draft picks they had last year and this coming draft that number should go up. And hopefully a better AHL team which eventually should translate to players for the Habs. The internal competition should help with development.

 

[Habs Halifax]

With all the draft picks they had last year and this coming draft that number should go up. And hopefully a better AHL team which eventually should translate to players for the Habs. The internal competition should help with development.

Agreed. This was the biggest problem in previous years. Our prospect pool had a few interesting guys here and there but the overall dept lacked quantity and that did not help our AHL team depth. That's going to change moving forward if we keep having drafts like the past two years.

Ripple effects from 08-11 draft years is something most don't understand or ignore cause the focus is the blame game.

 

[Archijerej]

His propensity to pick low IQ players is what bothers me the most about Timmins.

 

[Tim Wallach]

Not many have him in the top 20. Will be interesting to see his ranking closer to the draft. If the Habs feel he falls in the 20-40 range and want to draft Broberg at 15th, maybe we can trade the two 2nd's to snag Dorofeyev in the late 1st or early 2nd round?

Habs scouts would have a pretty good idea on Dorofeyev's game. All we get to see is some video and not even sure any of our fan base has seen him play live?

I do trust our scouting group for the most part. One thing I'd prioritize is consistency. We have a need on wing but so many wingers are up and down and prone to periods of invisibility. I'd be placing a high value on the consistent motors who show up every game.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I do trust our scouting group for the most part. One thing I'd prioritize is consistency. We have a need on wing but so many wingers are up and down and prone to periods of invisibility. I'd be placing a high value on the consistent motors who show up every game.

Our scouting has moved to targeting guys that skate well and this is a good thing. Biggest mistake when Bergevin came on board is he was desperate to address the lack of size issue and likely tinkered with Timmins strategy

 

[Wats]

Our scouting has moved to targeting guys that skate well and this is a good thing. Biggest mistake when Bergevin came on board is he was desperate to address the lack of size issue and likely tinkered with Timmins strategy

The drafting from 2012-2015 vs 2016-2018 is night and day. People hyped 2012-2015 drafting but the actually draft+1 and +2 success was nothing compared to what we're seeing with 2016-2018 so far.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The drafting from 2012-2015 vs 2016-2018 is night and day. People hyped 2012-2015 drafting but the actually draft+1 and +2 success was nothing compared to what we're seeing with 2016-2018 so far.

Exactly!! The development after drafted is a huge difference. Let Timmins do his job!

 

[barbu]

No matter how you turn it around, the draft results from 2008-2015 were nothing short of catastrophic.

It's possible that some of the blame lies on Lefebvre, even very likely. But it's impossible to pinpoint it exactly since the AHL is not much of a development league. Generally speaking, most top 6/4 nhl players do not play more than a handful of AHL games, if any. So part of the blame lies at least partially on Timmins.

The current group of prospects is very promising. The last time I ever saw anything comparable was in the early 90s with all the young defenseman (Lefebvre, Brisebois, Schneider, Desjardins) and quite a few promising forwards (Lebeau, Cassels, Pederson, Brunet). They all have a serious shot at making the NHL as soon as next year, and at most the next.

Unless a solid number of them pan out, this should be the end of Timmins by 2021 at the latest. It should be his last chance.

 

[bsl]

For sure, but we were looking for LHD even then.



Yeah, no idea why Forsberg fell. People started doubting his offensive abilities all of a sudden. Maybe there's hope for Boldy "product of Hughes" falling to us.



Pretty sure @Whitesnake wanted Rielly too, and thought we should strongly consider Trouba.

It was a tough draft and board was all over the place.

Pretty similar to this year actually. There's no consensus. Some want York. For some he's ND in 1st. Some want Caufield. Others think his size will be an issue. It's a tough draft. Lots of similar type players.

Timmins HAS to kill it with this pick. I said 3 years ago that if Scherbak and Mac busted, I would give up on him. True to my word, I have. It was the last straw for me.

I'm really disliking the 15th spot. It's pissing me off big time like I knew it would. I simply do not trust Timmins to make a good first round pick outside of the top ten. He has for the most part been really bad in the first round.

If Habs are going to do this stupid mediocre bubble thing, and pick 15th to 20th the next three years, they had better find the best scouts in the business. OK is not nearly good enough.

 

[bsl]

Don't you find it weird that we went from one of the best drafting teams to suddenly one of the worst when the MT/SL combo came in? Isn't it strange that a can't miss guy like Leblanc suddenly forget how to play hockey? Development matters and we got two of the worst guys we could possibly get to "teach" these kids. They were a disaster. And as bad as SL was, if you got past him you had to deal with Therrien in the NHL. It's an out of the frying pan into the fire disaster.

Confusing cause and effect. Coaches were bad true, but they had very little to work with. This bad development argument has been beaten to death. I'm not buying it, sorry. Truly good young players start with great skill, and have the drive and do the work to succeed. Timmins for the most part has been bad at picking real skill, and really bad at evaluating IQ and drive.

 

[26Mats]

Timmins HAS to kill it with this pick. I said 3 years ago that if Scherbak and Mac busted, I would give up on him. True to my word, I have. It was the last straw for me.

I'm really disliking the 15th spot. It's pissing me off big time like I knew it would. I simply do not trust Timmins to make a good first round pick outside of the top ten. He has for the most part been really bad in the first round.

If Habs are going to do this stupid mediocre bubble thing, and pick 15th to 20th the next three years, they had better find the best scouts in the business. OK is not nearly good enough.

I like that ever since we haven't been going for size, Timmins has been doing well.

2014 we clearly went for size (Timmins said Lernout plays the style of that big nasty dman that every team wants - what a different era!)
2015 - Juulsen (no 2nd)
2016 - Sergachev, Mete
2017 - Poehling, Brook, Romanov, Primeau, etc..
2018 - kk, Romanov, Ylonen, etc...

 

[bsl]

it's about having the best odds, as the stats on picks outside the top 10, top 20, top 30, 50, etc.. they quickly take a nose dive once you start getting later in the 1st and beyond. When you handicap your scout, it's not his fault, and it doesn't help when you have people in place that had ZERO experience at their job before being hired. You had a head coach and GM that had NEVER been a head coach or GM before. there's no telling what impact that has as EVERY single draft pick from the top 2 rounds was rushed to the NHL outside of Scherbak and he missed over a year of development time to injury.

Excuse after excuse. If a team refuses to tank for high picks, and also trades picks, then bloody well find/develop great amateur scouts. Habs can afford the very best. Find them. Develop them. Pay them. And I don't care what happens with the last 2 years of picks. It's too late. The damage is done. Move on.

 

[bsl]

agreed, if we had all teams lists it would certainly make things easier to rank them. But we don't even know how much say someone has as we can only guess what Churla or other scouts opinions matter to what degree.

But they have identified players beyond the high picks that helped the team. The problem was the mid years of Timmins drafts as he brought in Halak, Streit, Lappy, Grabo, Gallagher, Emelin then some dark years over the past 6 and now there's hope that changes to the development team, coaching staffs, and hopefully not rushing 20 year old kids to the NHL that aren't ready. This was the first year under a new AHL coach that we didn't rush a 20 year old to the NHL that was a top 3 round pick (Fleury) so hopefully that trend continues.

What's to stop MB from looking at Timmin's lists for the last 15 years? If he has not done this, then he truly is an idiot. It should be part of a yearly evaluation of scouting.

 

[bsl]

His propensity to pick low IQ players is what bothers me the most about Timmins.

This is quite true.

 

[Cenzo_]

This year has been absolutely amazing for the Habs prospect.

Here is the list of notable accomplishments by the Habs prospect (as of today):

• Kotkaniemi: Youngest player in the NHL; 34 pts in 79 games playing center
• Romanov: voted best D in the U-20 World Championship
• Poehling: voted MVP in the U-20 World Championship; scored a hat trick + shootout in first NHL game
• Primeau: voted best G in the U-20 World Championship; won Mike Richter award for Top goalie in NCAA; won the William Flynn Award for MVP in the NCAA in the Hockey East tournament; earned a spot in Team USA at the 2019 World Hockey Championship
• Suzuki: Top scorer (goals and pts) in the OHL playoffs; received the Wayne Gretzky 99 award as OHL playoff MVP; received the William Hanley Trophy for OHL most sportsman like player for the 3rd time; voted smartest player of the OHL Western conference
• Teasdale: Top pointer in the Q playoffs
• Josh Brook: ties for most point as a D in the WHL; runner up for D of the year in the WHL

Moderators, feel free to merge this in the right thread. I felt like making a new one to really highlight how our top prospects have been nothing short of amazing this year. Any other accomplishment worth mentioning?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Confusing cause and effect. Coaches were bad true, but they had very little to work with. This bad development argument has been beaten to death. I'm not buying it, sorry. Truly good young players start with great skill, and have the drive and do the work to succeed. Timmins for the most part has been bad at picking real skill, and really bad at evaluating IQ and drive.

Don't give me this 'he had nothing to work with' stuff.

We saw it at the big league level with players we'd already drafted and we saw it in the minors as well. Criticize Galchenyuk all you want, he'll never be the player he should've been. And what the hell was wrong with Louis Leblanc? He went exactly where he was supposed to and people were high on that pick.

It's not coincidence that we suddenly couldn't find players out of a paper bag. Drafting may be part of it but it's not everything. We hired the two worst development guys in the business and we knew how bad Therrien was when we got him, that one wasn't a surprise. It's no mystery as to why we dropped off a cliff with them.

Not only do we miss out on players that should make it but we miss out on the hidden gems we used to be able to find. Thank God Price, Max and Subban were already developed otherwise we'd be talking about them being busts too.