Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part IV)

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Le Barron de HF

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An interesting analysis would be to evaluate if the Habs would have done better in recent drafts by merely acquiring the highest ranked player on McKenzie's or NHL central scouting's list, rather than whoever Timmins picked.

Admittedly, this would ignore the Lefebvre effect.
I'm pretty sure i did that back in the day and it was relatively even. Edit: check my post in this thread Trevor Timmins Part II
 

Le Barron de HF

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As a follow up:

TIMMINS’ RECORD AFTEN TEN DRAFTS: 18 - 15 - 38

2014 Draft

Nikita Scherbak (26th overall; ranked 15th on CSS & 21st on BM’s list)
Highest player available off BM’s list: Scherbak (21st), CSS: Barbashev (18th).
Scherbak was the highest player off the list based on BM’s list which is more reliable. Barbashev is a regular though so I guess you could say it’s a loss if you rely on the less efficient tool that CSS is. Loss for Timmins.*

Brett Lernout (73rd overall; ranked 52nd on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Reid Gardiner (ranked 29th).
Gardiner is playing in the ECHL right now, Lernout played a few NHL games. One can argue this is a win, albeit a small one. Win for Timmins.

Nikolas Koberstein (125th overall; ranked 205th on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Ondrej Kase ranked 8th) Note: how the hell did he slip all the way to the 7th round with this ranking, wtf.
Obvious loss for Timmins.

Daniel Audette (147th overall; ranked 75th on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Emil Johansson; ranked 12th)
Draw for Timmins since clock is ticking for Audette to become an NHLer.

Hayden Hawkey (177th overall; unranked on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Kevin Reich; ranked 5th)
Draw for Timmins although it might turn into a win for Timmins.

Jake Evans (207th overall; ranked 106th)
Highest player available off CSS: Gavin Bayreuther; ranked 48th).
I will show my bias and although Bayreuther has played some games this year due to a ton of injuries on the Stars’ backend and did well, I will prefer to be patient to evaluate this one. I’ll consider it a draw but it’ll be good to re-evaluate in two years. Draw for Timmins.

TIMMINS’ RECORD AFTEN ELEVEN DRAFTS: 19 - 17 - 41


2015 Draft* (NHL.com won’t let me see other rankings than NA skaters for CSS).

Noah Juulsen (26th overall; ranked 22nd on CSS & ranked 37th on BM’s list)
Highest player available off BM’s list: Merkley (17th), CSS: Harkins (47th).
Still early to tell. I prefer Juulsen to Harkins but Merkley is a PPGish AHLer already. Time will tell here. Draw for Timmins.

Lukas Vejdemo (87th overall; ranked 36th on CSS)
Highest player available off BM’s list: Ryan Pilon (55th). CSS: Pilon (24th).
Here, that’s where scouts get the benefit (and some advantage) over us armchair scouts, he unexpectedly slipped at the draft and retired shortly after being drafted. Easy win for Timmins.

Matt Bradley (131st overall; ranked 126th on CSS)
Highest player available off BM’s list: Korostelev (69th). CSS: Korostelev (50th)
Although people were pissed we skipped over Koro at the draft, both amounted to nothing. Draw for Timmins.

Simon Bourque (177th overall; ranked 76th on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Noel (54th)
One retired and the other is a fringe AHLer. Draw for Timmins.

Jeremiah Addison (207th overall; ranked 129th on CSS)
Highest player available off CSS: Suter (74th)
I remember picking Suter in the mock draft and being surprised that he went undrafted. For my ego, I’ll put an asterisk here since Suter had a nice Olympic tournament for Switzerland and is a productive player in the NLA. Draw for Timmins.

TIMMINS’ RECORD AFTEN TWELVE DRAFTS: 20 - 17 - 45

I will stop here since 2016 is way too early still. As pointed out by some, 2016/2017 is really where it seemed like Timmins started to knock out of the park again so the two drafts I added didn't change much in terms of my 'analysis'. One thing that I can mention is that if someone wants to take over with what I have, CSS could be replaced by something else since 2014ish, there have been better resources online available for draft junkies (Future Considerations, etc.).
 

vokiel

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You can't write off Olofsson just yet, way to early.
For Ikonen I could say the same. It's possible he breaks out at 25 years old.
If he breaks out at 25, it won't be in a Habs jersey! People don't understand this when they just gun for late boomers, it rarely benefits the team who drafts them. The guy is going to be waiver eligible way before this and will most likely be playing elsewhere.
 

Runner77

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Of course you can it's just a lower percentage on the success rate. I wouldn't plan a draft with that in mind, that would be the gambler's fallacy.

True, but what is not gambling is a particular scout's record of success.

What you see published in most studies is just showing the rate of success per round or rank, in general. However, there are scouts that have a better track record at assessing talent -- these are the guys that the Habs should be targeting and poaching.
 

The Great Weal

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I wouldn't plan a draft thinking I can get franchise players the further I am from OA #1 because it can happen. That's gambler's fallacy.

IOW I keep my first rounders and I get more. ;)
I also wouldn't plan a draft where I spend all season hoping and praying that I win the 1st overall only to get upset when I dont win it. Every recent cup winner has drafted at least one elite player outside the first.

You need to try to make the most out of all your picks, not just pray for the 1st overall.
 
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vokiel

#MolsonIsntWine
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True, but what is not gambling is a particular scout's record of success.

What you see published in most studies is just showing the rate of success per round or rank, in general. However, there are scouts that have a better track record at assessing talent -- these are the guys that the Habs should be targeting and poaching.
Sure, but at the same time we're supposed to have one in Trevor Timmins and for more than a decade the only 2 late rounders I see as having an impact with their club are Gallagher and Halak. That's still a pretty low rate.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

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True, but what is not gambling is a particular scout's record of success.

What you see published in most studies is just showing the rate of success per round or rank, in general. However, there are scouts that have a better track record at assessing talent -- these are the guys that the Habs should be targeting and poaching.

"Better to trust a dumb friend than a smartypants stranger"
 
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Runner77

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Sure, but at the same time we're supposed to have one in Trevor Timmins and for more than a decade the only 2 late rounders I see as having an impact with their club are Gallagher and Halak. That's still a pretty low rate.

However, Timmins is a senior guy now and if I'm not mistaken, his scouting is more at an advanced level, he'll come in to validate his scout's recommendations. What we need is those scouting guys below him to be stalwarts. Also, we can't miss out on free assets whenever they become available.
 
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vokiel

#MolsonIsntWine
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I also wouldn't plan a draft where I spend all season hoping and praying that I win the 1st overall only to get upset when I dont win it. Every recent cup winner has drafted at least one elite player outside the first.

You need to try to make the most out of all your picks, not just pray for the 1st overall.
I agree, it's just a matter of trying to minimize the crap shoots imho.

However, Timmins is a senior guy now and if I'm not mistaken, his scouting is more at an advanced level, he'll come in to validate his scout's recommendations. What we need is those scouting guys below him to be stalwarts. Also, we can't miss out on free assets whenever they become available.
I'd be very interested in seeing what kind of tools the hockey clubs use for scouting, cataloging and evaluating prospects. I work on a project for a Basketball tool at the moment for coaches and college players. Quite a high level tech plan. They're trying to move towards science a lot.
 

Runner77

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I agree, it's just a matter of trying to minimize the crap shoots imho.


I'd be very interested in seeing what kind of tools the hockey clubs use for scouting, cataloging and evaluating prospects. I work on a project for a Basketball tool at the moment for coaches and college players. Quite a high level tech plan. They're trying to move towards science a lot.

If you're looking for the type of criteria they're after, how they rate it, etc., I remember seeing some of it posted in the Prospects Forum. You can also extrapolate from the annual draft guides, especially the more comprehensive ones.
 

vokiel

#MolsonIsntWine
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If you're looking for the type of criteria they're after, how they rate it, etc., I remember seeing some of it posted in the Prospects Forum. You can also extrapolate from the annual draft guides, especially the more comprehensive ones.
No that's the old methodology that the NBA is moving away from. People say the draft isn't a science, well they're making one with sensors, cameras etc... What I'm looking for is the tools a director of scouting uses to merge all the data and visualize prospects' strengths. If it's spreadsheets, then I'm getting excited ;)
 

Runner77

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No that's the old methodology that the NBA is moving away from. People say the draft isn't a science, well they're making one with sensors, cameras etc... What I'm looking for is the tools a director of scouting uses to merge all the data and visualize prospects' strengths. If it's spreadsheets, then I'm getting excited ;)

You're looking for insider stuff. Try Wikileaks. :D
 
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yianik

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For me the bottom line is not the number of guys that make the NHL or number of games played. I couldnt care less if we set a record for 4th liners in the NHL.

What matters is the top end guys, top 6F , top 3/4D and starting goalie. And you need one of these guys just about every draft. Now it isnt just all on the scouts, I mean if you are a team that makes the play offs the GM needs to help out by say getting extra picks for his head scout to utilize,or move up if doing so gets you the guy the scout really wants.

Also you cant have a stupid philosophy ie " you cant teach size, but you can teach speed and skill ".

MB gave TT the draft picks these last 2 drafts, and the focus on upside was bang on, TT better have nailed it.
 

Scintillating10

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An interesting analysis would be to evaluate if the Habs would have done better in recent drafts by merely acquiring the highest ranked player on McKenzie's or NHL central scouting's list, rather than whoever Timmins picked.

Admittedly, this would ignore the Lefebvre effect.
I play around with the draft each year. In the 1st and 2nd rounds. Timmins record is close to mine. I use Bob McKenzie, then followed up by stats, then my eye test.
 

Whitesnake

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If a player breaks out at 25, it's not a win for Timmins. It's a win for whoever was able to develop him. But you don't pick a player so that he's ready 7 years after being picked up 'cause chances are, he won't be with your team anymore.
 

NotProkofievian

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Or just hire the best ****ing scout in sweden, or better yet, two of them or even ten.

Like, we got time for Arvid Henrikson, but none for GPG in the playoffs Fagemo? I get that he didn't have a great U18 but come on. You don't even need a swedish scout if you're going to passing on a guy like that in the 7th. And so help me god if I was right about Hållander > Olofsson.
 
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WeThreeKings

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Like, we got time for Arvid Henrikson, but none for GPG in the playoffs Fagemo? I get that he didn't have a great U18 but come on. You don't even need a swedish scout if you're going to passing on a guy like that in the 7th. And so help me god if I was right about Hållander > Olofsson.

Samuel. Houde.
 
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