Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part IV)

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BLONG7

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Like who are these big players you mention that can skate?
There are lots of guys who are 6ft + 200 lbs who can skate....Toffoli, Killorn, Palat, Wood. Nosen from NJ instead of taking Hudon, Peca, types who are fast, but small. We never seem to get these types who can actually grind there way through a season and give you some offense etc We seem to make alot of mistakes at the draft table. The small talented kids seem to be drawn to our scouts....then we pick a size kid in McCarron but he can't skate?? Just throwing this out there guys..........the game has gotten real fast, and the small skilled guys are amazing at times........but in the playoffs, you need kids who can handle the entire season plus....
 

JeffreyLFC

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There are lots of guys who are 6ft + 200 lbs who can skate....Toffoli, Killorn, Palat, Wood. Nosen from NJ
All of them are average skaters with the exception of Wood. His team is ranked lower than us.

As for their size nothing great either they are like the NHL average.
 

Sorinth

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Honestly, as much as I like stats and SPSS, I have no idea what that Sean Hannity inspired chart is trying to show me. The "rank" on the right seems completely random. There are 2 stats, however, that jump at me: number of top 100 picks ranks 4th and yet total number of NHL games played is solidly middle of the pack. Thus, the "picking late" (and if he were picking late, how does that square with Therrien, especially, being the "worst coach ever in the NHL" as one poster said just yesterday) doesn't square, nor does the "6th or 7th round picks fail" argument square either.

Last, the pts & pts/game are interesting, but what's the weighting? I ask b/c the Sedins are 2nd in NHL scoring by a pair of brothers. The Gretzkys lead by over 800 and Brent Gretzky had 4 of those. The Sutters lead Wayne Gretzky by 79 for most points by a set of brothers.

The rank is simply where that number ranks league wide. So for example being ranked 4th in number of top 100 picks means only 3 teams had more top-100 picks. Though why 100 is used seems random, I mean why include the first 10 picks of the 4th round but exclude the rest of the 4th round.

But your right that there isn't a lot of relevant information that can be gleamed from this. For example we are 11th in number of top-10 picks which sounds like we are above average, yet we are tied with 8 other teams so we are in fact pretty much right smack down in the middle of the league.

And as you already pointed out, averages can often produce weird results. When looking at points per game, a team that picks lots of goalies or defence will come out looking worse even if the players picked are great players. It also favours for example taking high risks since you are better off having a player not even make the NHL then having a 4th liner that plays a few hundred games.


That said to the OP, I appreciate the work and truthfully there is no easy way to come up with stats that show how good/bad the scouts are.

My preference is to look at the number of top-6 forwards, top-4 defence, starting goalies a guy finds, and compare it to the average you should get given the picks. I only care about those picks since those are the guys that are hard to acquire, getting 4th liners is mostly irrelevant since you can pick ok ones up easily every year as UFAs.

For example, the odds of getting one of those players with a top-5 pick is surprisingly only 72.5%. So we are doing better then average in that regard. Do that for every pick/grouping of picks and you get a clearer picture of how much better/worse then average the team is at drafting/developing.

Here's where I get the odds per pick.
https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131
 
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No fan fiction

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The best scouts in the history of scouting have lists like that. Producing a list like that says nothing about a scout.

So if the best scouts in history have lists like that (they don't btw, but even Sam Pollock drafted the likes the Robin Sadler and Cam Connor), then by the same token can we not stop (one poster in particular) with the "it's all Lefebvre's fault" narrative. I'm guessing every AHL coach (even good ones like, oh, Rod Lever, who won the Calder Cup, and Guy Boucher, who walks on water) has a list of players they couldn't "develop" too.
 
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Sorinth

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Can trading Will Bitten ever be called "bad asset management"?

If you trade him for a worse asset then sure. I don't think Olofsson is a worse asset but if you trade an AHL player for a worse AHL players it's bad asset management even though in the end it's probably irrelevant.
 

No fan fiction

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If you trade him for a worse asset then sure. I don't think Olofsson is a worse asset but if you trade an AHL player for a worse AHL players it's bad asset management even though in the end it's probably irrelevant.

Then it's irrelevant. Let's go with that.
 

montreal

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No, it was his picks from 2008 to 2011 that bombed (except Gallagher).

But if you're refering to Cory Urquardt, I've heard from multiple sources that was Andre Savard's pick.

Savard was gushing about Urquhart after the draft talking about how well he played in the playoffs and kept referencing his hands. It was Timmins 1st year on the job and Savard was his boss with the sens and then brought him to the Habs so it seems logical to think that Savard pushed for Urquhart. Was a nice kid, interviewed him for HF back then.

If you trade him for a worse asset then sure. I don't think Olofsson is a worse asset but if you trade an AHL player for a worse AHL players it's bad asset management even though in the end it's probably irrelevant.

Olofsson likely is a better asset then Bitten but they could have just kept Bitten and picked up Olofsson for free, which even if Bitten ends up nothing but an AHLer would be better asset management to keep him then give him away for a player you can get for free. That said now we'll have to see what happens to Olofsson, he's out for the season with another shoulder injury so hard to say if he will be back with the team as they should have several rookie D's incoming.

I look at Bitten as a possible 4th liner in 3-4 years as his speed, effort could get him a look in the NHL. So not a big loss most likely as I said at the time but still would rather have him and Olofsson then just have Olofsson for perhaps just 1 AHL game.
 

Whitesnake

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Every one of our 1st and 2nd round picks from the last 2 years either was at the world juniors or would have been had they not been injured or in the NHL - plus Primeau.

2017
Poehling
Brook
Ikonen
Primeau

2018
Kotkaniemi
Ylonen
Romanov
Olofson

Plus Suzuki. Bergevin said in his presser he thinks that's a club record.
(I'll add: plus Fleury's a damn good prospect)

Yes. It's an awesome feature. Then, as far as how it translates in the pro, people will need to remember that based on past rosters, if you play for Canada, the majority will end up having a NHL career, quite a few great players, most of them serviceable. Then, if you end up playing for the US Sweden and Finland, only 6-8 players per roster will play interesting roles with their respective NHL teams.

So it is an awesome feature. I repeat. Awesome. But you do not judge a scout work through the WJC or Amateur success. You enjoy it while it lasts as fans. And I enjoy it. But again, that's not how you evaluate a scouting group work. AS of today, they ALL look great. They do. And it's been a long time since we could say this. But as far as surefire NHL'ers, aside from Kotka, I think that they only 2 guys you can give that certainty are Poehling and Brook. Everybody else, it could go either way.
 
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le_sean

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Habs don’t have any luck with guys that drop in the draft. Olofsson, Ikonen, Collberg. It’s like teams pick up on something that just isn’t there.
 

canadiensnation

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Habs don’t have any luck with guys that drop in the draft. Olofsson, Ikonen, Collberg. It’s like teams pick up on something that just isn’t there.
You can't write off Olofsson just yet, way to early.
For Ikonen I could say the same. It's possible he breaks out at 25 years old.
 
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Treb

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Habs don’t have any luck with guys that drop in the draft. Olofsson, Ikonen, Collberg. It’s like teams pick up on something that just isn’t there.

Collberg: Yup, we grasped at upside that wasn't there.
Ikonen: Hard to say since he missed the whole year.
Olofsson: Top6 U19 SHL producer (all top6 are 1st/2nd round except Fagemo who is undrafted)

Only Colberg is a sure bust in that list. Olofsson is doing good right now.
 

Estimated_Prophet

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There are lots of guys who are 6ft + 200 lbs who can skate....Toffoli, Killorn, Palat, Wood. Nosen from NJ instead of taking Hudon, Peca, types who are fast, but small. We never seem to get these types who can actually grind there way through a season and give you some offense etc We seem to make alot of mistakes at the draft table. The small talented kids seem to be drawn to our scouts....then we pick a size kid in McCarron but he can't skate?? Just throwing this out there guys..........the game has gotten real fast, and the small skilled guys are amazing at times........but in the playoffs, you need kids who can handle the entire season plus....
Toffoli is a poor skater and Hudon's biggest weakness is his skating. It is baffling how people lack the ability to judge whether a player is fast or not.
 
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No fan fiction

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Savard was gushing about Urquhart after the draft talking about how well he played in the playoffs and kept referencing his hands. It was Timmins 1st year on the job and Savard was his boss with the sens and then brought him to the Habs so it seems logical to think that Savard pushed for Urquhart. Was a nice kid, interviewed him for HF back then.



Olofsson likely is a better asset then Bitten but they could have just kept Bitten and picked up Olofsson for free, which even if Bitten ends up nothing but an AHLer would be better asset management to keep him then give him away for a player you can get for free. That said now we'll have to see what happens to Olofsson, he's out for the season with another shoulder injury so hard to say if he will be back with the team as they should have several rookie D's incoming.

I look at Bitten as a possible 4th liner in 3-4 years as his speed, effort could get him a look in the NHL. So not a big loss most likely as I said at the time but still would rather have him and Olofsson then just have Olofsson for perhaps just 1 AHL game.

How, pray tell was this supposed to happen? Explain how precisely we get Olofsson for free?

Also, a 4th liner for whom we have to wait another 3-4 is itself bad asset management b/c he is taking up a contract spot and a roster spot that could go to an actual asset.
 

Treb

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How, pray tell was this supposed to happen? Explain how precisely we get Olofsson for free?

Also, a 4th liner for whom we have to wait another 3-4 is itself bad asset management b/c he is taking up a contract spot and a roster spot that could go to an actual asset.

He cleared waiver before the trade.
 
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Estimated_Prophet

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Truth hurts or something? JDLR and Fucale were both droppers and both suck. Bitten is another dropper that sucks. They just have no luck in that regard.
Writing off both of Olofsson and Ikonen so soon relegates your opinion to my irrelevant folder. You may end up being right but so could someone who has barely, if ever watched them play :sarcasm:
 

thewall

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Truth hurts or something? JDLR and Fucale were both droppers and both suck. Bitten is another dropper that sucks. They just have no luck in that regard.

Wasnt it the same thing with Beaulieu? Wasnt he suposed to get drafted higher in 2011?
 

BLONG7

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All of them are average skaters with the exception of Wood. His team is ranked lower than us.

As for their size nothing great either they are like the NHL average.
Well, Timmins needs to start picking bigger guys who can handle the 82 games and playoffs, and not little talented guys who wilt after 40 games...............that's the point in all of this, we need to draft kids who are bigger, and can skate!! I don't think there is one team currently in the playoffs, we would beat in a 7 game series because of this.
 

DAChampion

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An interesting analysis would be to evaluate if the Habs would have done better in recent drafts by merely acquiring the highest ranked player on McKenzie's or NHL central scouting's list, rather than whoever Timmins picked.

Admittedly, this would ignore the Lefebvre effect.
 
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