Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by yianik, Jul 15, 2018.

  1. WhiskeySeven*

    WhiskeySeven* Expect the expected

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    lol the best swede we drafted was JDLR, who are you kidding?

    Habs history is awful with Canadians last couple years

    Habs history is awful with americans last couple years

    Habs history is awful last couple years

    At least with Russians and other Euros you stand to get more talent at a lower draft position.
     
  2. Spearmint Rhino

    Spearmint Rhino Registered User

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    Right or wrong TTs gotsta go just to rule out one of the variables and bring in a new set of eyes

    I'm sure someone has the stats and will prove me wrong but doubt too many teams have drafted as many first & second round busts as us in the last 10 years
     
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  3. WhiskeySeven*

    WhiskeySeven* Expect the expected

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    I'm curious to see if any other club has drafted ZERO 60 point NHLers in the last decade's worth of drafts. Trying (at random) New York Isles, Buffalo, Washington, and Pittsburgh - and Montreal.

    60-point NHLers:

    NYI - Bailey, Tavares, Anders Lee, Barzal
    BUF - Eichel
    WSH - Carlson, Kuznetsov, Forsberg
    PIT - none
    MTL - none

    Other notable NHLers:

    NYI - Hamonic, Spurgeon, de Haan, Niederreiter, Nelson, Beauvillier
    BUF - Myers, Ennis, McNabb, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Dahlin
    WSH - Holtby, Johansson, Orlov, Eakin, Wilson, Burakovsky
    PIT - Maatta, Pouliot, Murray, Guentzel
    MTL - Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Sergachev, Kotkaniemi

    I didn't include older forwards who got less than 31 points, and I think it's fair that I removed Depres from Pitts and Beaulieu from Montreal.

    It doesn't look pretty for Montreal, does it?

    We're producing worthwhile NHLers worse than Pittsburgh and Washington ffs.
     
  4. WhiskeySeven*

    WhiskeySeven* Expect the expected

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    Vancouver is a famously bad drafting team but even they have Horvath, Petterson, and Boeser! That blows our best rookies and prospects out of the water!!
     
  5. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    I'm simply saying we hit 2/7 with our 1st round picks since 08 (excluding years with no 1st and years with a top 10 pick). Poehling and Juulsen
     
  6. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    I think McCarron and Tinordi where bad picks but I don't believe Leblanc, Scherbak, and Beaulieu were. Regardless, it's a disappointment none of them hit.
     
  7. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    Development after being drafted. Collberg did not have the same development. I don't consider Hillis the same as Poehling. One is about to play the world juniors two years in a row and the other has not. I consider Olofsson and Romanov more of a hit vs Hillis to be honest. Hillis falls into that surprise/disappoint category. He has a lot of areas he needs to improve at before he cracks an NHL roster.

    Poehling with 3 goals is not the focus you should be looking at if you know his game. We are talking about a shutdown center who has some offensive skill. But his focus is a complete game and he is good at it with the big body he has.

    Sorry, at this stage (Draft plus development), Poehling is considered a 1st round hit. Yeah, he needs to prove himself at the NHL level but most believe he has what it takes to be successful in the NHL. We can change our opinion down the road but today... he is a 1st round hit

    Poehling:
    - Draft year playing NCAA at age 17/18: 13 pts with 7 goals in 35 games (0.37 pts/game)
    - Draft plus one year at age 18/19: 31 pts with 14 goals in 36 games (0.86 pts/game)
    - Draft plus two years at age 19/20: 15 pts with 3 goals in 14 games ((1.07 pts/game)

    He has gained weight and added muscle and it shows. We got a very good developing prospect here and he plays a smart game at center already. He's much closer to a hit than a bust
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
  8. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    you may not know, but teams manage to win cups with Russians on their team, Russian playing important roles at that
     
  9. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    60 points is a bit harsh as one year earlier, Timmins drafted Subban and Pacioretty... And Galchenyuk puy up 56 and Gally put up a 60 points pace.

    Why is the 60 points arbitrary line chosen ?

    I agree that it is a pathetic record though, no one will disagree.


    Anyway, Minnesota is a team with similar drafting, with only Zucker and Granlund producing 60 points in the last decade. (Scandella, Dumba, Tuch, Leddy and Haula are good players though.)

    LA has only drafted Doughty (Gifted Doughty @ 2nd overall), whos produced 60 points once, Schenn with Miller, Pearson, Voynov, toffoli being the only other notable picks in that span.

    The Coyotes only have Keller who produced 60 points, with Stone, Boedkker, Chychrun, OEL, Domi, Dvorak, Perlini, Fischer being good players.

    The Leafs haven't produced such a player outside of the top 10, Kadri, Matthews, Marner and Nylander... Dermott and Rielly are two other good NHL players.

    The Stars have produced Rielly Smith who got 60 points last year, aside from that they produced Heiskanen, Chiasson, Lindell, Faksa.

    Nashville only drafted Josi who's broken the 60 points barrier but have been good overall with Jones, Ellis, Ekholm...

    The Rangers did not draft a player that broke 60, they have however drafted Stepan, Duclair, Skjei, Kreider, Del zotto, miller and Buchnevich.

    The Devils have not drafted a 60 points player, good NHLer = Larsson, Bratt, Henrique, Serverson, Kerfoot, Wood, Zacha, Hischier

    The Bruins have drafted Seguin and Pasta who've broken the 60 points mark and other good players like McAvoy, Spooner, Hamilton, Heinen, Debrusk, Carlo,

    The Hurricanes have drafted Aho and Skinner who've broken 60, and hit on Faulk, Slavin, Pesce, Rask, Lindhilm, Hanifin, Dumoulin.

    Chicago has drafted Teravainen whos just broken the 60 points mark last year, and other good NHL players like Schmaltz, Danault, Hayes, Kruger, Shaw, Saad, Hartman and Debrincat.

    Detroit drafted Larkin who's broken the 60 points barrier last year, Mantha, Sheahan, Nyquist, our very own Tatar, Jarnkrok, Mrazek, Athanasious, Bertuzzi are other good NHL players.

    San José hasn't drafted a 60 points player, the list of player is sad, Demers, Meier, Wingels, Coyle, Nieto, Hertl, Tierney, Labanc, Mueller. In fact, I believe none of them have broken 50 points once aside from Coyle in 14-15.

    Some are worse, some are better, most are similar. A lot of it has to do with strength of drafting, Toronto is absolutely terrible outside of the top 10, with only Dermott being relevant in the past decade. Detroit isn't good at all aside from Larking, Chicago is bad but they didn't have good draft power, the Devils are bad, Sanjosé are bad, LA is terribad aside from the gift of Doughty, etc.
     
  10. yianik

    yianik Registered User

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    I have no issue with being mindful of a 200 foot game. But not all players are strong defensive players just as most players are not offensively gifted.

    What I do not understand is why this organization is so weighted to the defensive side of things. And I think that is a philosophy that exists throughout our system, as well as a weighting to veterans and a lackadaisical approach to actual development.

    When the Habs traded Chelios to the Hawks for Savard, Serge Savard spoke to Denis on the phone and told him, you know, you will have to play defense here. Now I liked Savard as a GM, but he is telling Denis freaken Savard he will have to play defence here. Holy Crap.

    MT was open about it not being his job to develop players.

    Sly stated his goal was to win. When asked about player development he threw in a ..well that too.

    So aside from the drafting, yes, I really question our development of players. And I also question the emphasis on the defensive part of the game and so often playing a risk averse game. Gee, wonder why scoring has been a constant issue ?

    An offensive player excels at the offense. No issue teaching them defense, but if getting to play is measured by their defensive game, then we never see the best of the player because the player knows if he makes a mistake, pow. Guess what, offensive players have more giveaways because there is risk in trying to create plays.

    So the result is young offensive guys get short shrift and we end up with 4th liners on the 1st line since they are defensively responsible

    And of course this philosophy affects drafting. It's been a joke with us fans, the safe pick. Reliable two way guy that coaches love. Oh, and 3rd line ceiling. Typically a bust as the skill is just not there, so not so safe in reality.

    So swell that our drafting approach is on speed, skill, IQ etc, now. But that will not amount to squat if the players are fed into the culture of defense first and only hockey.
     
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  11. WhiskeySeven*

    WhiskeySeven* Expect the expected

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    Chose 60 because I think that's what makes someone a notable NHL player or an impactful NHL player - at forward anyway. 60 isn't unattainable either, it isn't "unrealistic". I guess 38-40 would be the equivalent for a dman but I haven't thought that through too much.

    Thanks for doing the research, I think we can see that that Habs are, in effect, in the lowest tier. Some teams draft super high and then super low, some constantly draft low, some constantly draft high - the Habs have been all over the place and haven't had a single 60 point man in the past ten years.

    Kotkaniemi and Chucky maybe - Gallagher I think is at his peak. Both the former are 3rd overalls... Other teams get several got 50-point players or great/effective d-men. We've got bupkis.

    It's sad that Timmins has survived this long with such a terrible impact on our fortunes.
     
  12. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    The problem here is that Timmins seems to rank in the average, while taking his worst possible stretch. Its cherry picked and hes still middle of the pack. Do this for any heach scout, lets see how they rank?

    Also, I dont agree at all with your 60 points line. A 60 points forward sure has value, but I cant take you seriously if youre going to tell me Gallagher has less on-ice value than guys like Rielly, Nylander, Granlund, Skinner Teravainen. I just cant agree with this, I could see the true offensive potential of Granlund and or Nylander being judged better than Gallagher, but their offensive impact is lesser than Gallagher, imo.

    Also, should Mark Stone and Brendan Gallagher hold the same drafting value has Matthews, Mcdavid, Hedman, Stamkos, and the likes? No brainer first/2nd Oa arent impressive at all to me. Timmins hasnt missed on a top 10 picked either since 2003, and even then, it wasnt a true miss.
     
  13. Spearmint Rhino

    Spearmint Rhino Registered User

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    He's been average and our team is possibly less than average, if you want exceptional results we need to strive for more than average - yes our GM/development is to blame for a lot of this but TT is a constant that bridges several different GMs of average/below average teams, not enough to justify keeping his job in my books if nothing more than a different look
     
  14. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    I dont agree that Gainey was average or below average. The two ECF run were built on his back.
     
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  15. Spearmint Rhino

    Spearmint Rhino Registered User

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    One was riding a hot goalie but I'll give you the other one as maybe the best team Montreal has had since they last won the Cup but that's not a lot of success. The drafting track record since 07 isn't pretty no matter how you look at it
     
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  16. DAChampion

    DAChampion Registered User

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    The 2010 team had more going for it than Halak.

    Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek, Cammalleri, all played well.
     
  17. Spearmint Rhino

    Spearmint Rhino Registered User

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    Def played well especially Cammy but more of a Cinderella run as an 8th place seed with Halak carrying the load to overachieve
     
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  18. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    And the best goalscorer of the POs... and ... and... it was much more than just a hot goalie.
     
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  19. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake Dracarys or Décalisse

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    7 games against Washington.
    Shots For / Shots Against
    38 / 47
    24 / 37
    27 / 36
    39 / 38
    28 / 38
    22 / 54
    16 / 42

    The goalie is not there....and nobody is the beset goalscorer of the PO. We made it past that round because of that goalie and him alone.

    We got outshot by WAsh and Pittsburgh almost every game. Do you know when we stopped being outshot? Against Philly. Yet, we lost. Why? 'Cause Halak was out of miracles.

    But hey, we are in the Timmins thread. Kudos to him for having found Halak in 2003. If only he could repeat what he used to do better and find guys in later rounds....seems he's out of miracles too....We will see with Primeau and Evans.

    What do you call HIS WORST POSSIBLE STRETCH? The last decade? You don't see how it sounds? We cherry pick by using last decade? Isn't cherry picking always going back to 2007 and almost using that sole and only year to prove how great Timmins is?

    We are talking about a whole 10 years. We are out of cherry picking category.....

    Halak not there against Washington, you do not have the pleasure to see Subban, Hamrlik, Spacek and CAmmy shine. Period. Halak stole that series. Point blank.
     
    Last edited by moderator montreal: Dec 4, 2018
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  20. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

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    Well MB, Lefebvre worked for 6 years and look at what it got us,

    Leblanc, Tinordi, Beaulieu, DLR, McCarron, Scherbak, Ghetto, Carr, Thomas, Dietz, Bournival, Ellis.

    The only success to show from the AHL is Gallagher and his 36 games in the AHL, Pateryn and Hudon.

    Aside from Hudon almost all of them were rushed to the NHL before dominating, then yo-yoed after they made mistakes and where benched and then ended up in the press box before being sent back days later. Rinse, repeat, and continue to make the same mistakes.
     
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  21. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    The bad stretch from Timmins spans from 08 to 14, so six drafts, not a decade. How can you call Juulsen/Vejdemo a bad draft ? How can you call Sergachev/Mete a bad draft ? Then there's 2007.

    There's 2010 in there that is decent too, with Gally. A first liner out of 5 picks isn't exactly a "bad" draft. Especially when you just have one pick in the top 110. 2012 wasn't a bad year either, with Galchenyuk and Hudon. 2013 wasn't bad either with Lekhonen, DLR and maybe McCarron turning it up. but this one clearly isn't good. Two AHL top line player and a middle sixer with 8 picks, including 6 in the top 90 is not good at all.

    Essentially, 2008-2009-2011-2014 are his bad years. Even 2014 is not out of question of being average, if Evans, Hawkey and Scherbak do something.

    For the sake of the argument, I called it 08-14, because thats where he has his lowest hit rate.


    Also, on Halak:
    NHL goalies better vs high shot volumes - Sportsnet.ca

    Read this.
     
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  22. otto bond

    otto bond Registered User

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    I will have to agree that Lefevre was bad...
    Still, to me, Leblanc, Tinordi and McCarron where not 1st round material to begin with. Loved Tinordi's size skating but that is it. He also got knock the ...out in JR
    Leblanc didn't have hockey in his heart and his foot speed or lack of played a big role, not sure if we can blame the development with those 2 pick.
    Beaulieu has all the tools physically but lack IQ IMO to make anything good with that talent. He also has average shot.
    Scherbak has talent, played 2 years in the AHL and never really dominated anything, sucks to lose him for nothing but he was on the block I can guaranty that just no one wanted to give anything for him...so is it development in his case? I say another bad pick in the 1st round. but there are about 26 more 1st round pick from 2015-2017 who haven't laced them up for the nhl and 27 if you count his draft year. Also picks done after him have not fair to well in general in the NHL aside from Point.
    DLR his fine and develop has expected but you can't teach scoring ability so what's the problem. I do think we should have keep him over Peca but hey it's depth players and every team has those.
     
  23. Ozymandias

    Ozymandias #MolsonPleaseQuit

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    And depiste their mvp missing the second half of their run
     
  24. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake Dracarys or Décalisse

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    How can you call Juulsen and Vejdemo a good draft? Juulsen could still be a healthy scratch any given night and at best, he's not showing he could be anything but a bottom 2 d-man. Vejdemo is still just a prospect doing fine right now.....but in no way is he a product of a good draft. Sergachev was a top 10 pick, the type of pick that we dissed other teams from having, but somehow we don't in Montreal. And Mete had to go back in Laval. Not a permanent fixture. And no idea if he'll ever be a top 4. How do you call this a good draft?

    2010 is a bad draft. GAllagher is a good pick out of that draft. But the draft in itself could have easily been there if they wouldn't have worked hard to make it worst. With acquiring Tinordi AND giving up a 2nd rounder in the process. And with a nice load of NHL'ers picked in the 5th and 6th round that year. IN no way should it be seen as a good draft. But yep Gallagher was a heck of a pick.

    2012: Hudon.....come on man. People tell me I'm biased and a proof of how good a draft is, is a healthy scratch in Hudon. Strangely, while you take the time in 2010 to say how we had so little picks to choose from, you don't make that argument for 2012 saying that we should have done better based on the number of picks we had....

    2013: Incredible to have the nerve to put that year in the not so bad year. DLR? Really? So just skating in the NHL is enough to be considered not bad? Lehkonen? Yep maybe....though he is getting there. But one pick out of all those picks....and top picks also....it absolutely cannot be seen as not bad. Even though that draft wasn't that good...there were still other players to choose from.

    2014: We will see. To this day, Scherbak is a failure but could just need another shot from another team. But he needs to be a top 6 to be effective. Evans....let's wait and see how it translate in the NHL if it ever. I have my doubts. And Hawkey...well...this could be the hidden gem in this. No ****ing idea why they traded the guy.....But there are ways to go before 2014 is seen as good.

    2015: To this day, it's Juulsen. It's bottom pairing Juulsen. Enough with Vejdemo despite him looking okay. We are not there to count him up on anything. Till a guy is not even on a possibility to be called up, he shouldn't be called a hit or a great pick.

    2016: Sergachev needs to get out of his funk and becomes top 4. I think he will. Another bottom pairing on a top 10 is NOT a success. But I think he will. And Mete needs to stick around in the big league.

    2017 and 2018: Looking good....but too soon to tel.

    AS far as your chart, makes no sense man. You are saying that every team that outshoots an opponent will lose because of it? Halak still had to make those saves and most of them were key saves.
     
  25. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    Ws, the problem is that you dismiss anything good coming from these drafts.

    The 2010 draft is a conversion rate of 25% thats right up the alley of the best teams. Could it have been better? For sure. Did they draft bad ? Yes. But they still converted on Gallagher out of 4 picks, any team in the league would take that over a gamble. Imagine coming out of every draft with a first line winger?
     

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