Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 8)

[The Great Weal]

yeah GM have time to watch every prospect and they do scouting report for each of them ! I don’t why they hired a Scouting chef

I also like how he shifts blame for the Fischer pick on a scout that was a part of HIS own team. He let someone in a lower position than him to make the decision for the most important pick of our draft.

 

[Supersonic]

Timmins is not perfect and has even had his downright bad moments (mentioned).

However there are bigger fish to fry here. I also don’t see any material improvement to the club if he is sacked but we keep Bergevin on managing hockey operations. We will get more of the same rushing prospects, yoyo-ing from NHL/AHL, etc...

 

[habsfan92]

Got bored, so using hockey-reference.com which has Feb 1 rosters......number of players drafted by teams currently in the NHL, MTL 4th last with 16, LAK first at 29. Drafted players as a % of roster players, MTL 3rd worst at 23%, Columbus first with 60%
Maybe trading some picks for players is the way to go?

 

[montreal]

Got bored, so using hockey-reference.com which has Feb 1 rosters......number of players drafted by teams currently in the NHL, MTL 4th last with 16, LAK first at 29. Drafted players as a % of roster players, MTL 3rd worst at 23%, Columbus first with 60%
Maybe trading some picks for players is the way to go?

For this season it's 23,

Kotka, Poehling, Fleury, Primeau, Sergachev, Mete, Vejdemo, Evans, DLR, Leks, Galchenyuk, Hudon, Beauileu, Tinordi, Gallagher, Dumont, McDonagh, Pac, Subban, Weber, Price, Halak, Hainsey

plus you have players signed or developed by us, Pateryn, Leskinen, Lindgren, Carr, and Hanely all appeared in the NHL as well.


Not saying this means anything since the Habs stunk and traded away players so guys like Vejdemo, Evans, Hudon might not have been called up.

 

[The Great Weal]

For this season it's 23,

Kotka, Poehling, Fleury, Primeau, Sergachev, Mete, Vejdemo, Evans, DLR, Leks, Galchenyuk, Hudon, Beauileu, Tinordi, Gallagher, Dumont, McDonagh, Pac, Subban, Weber, Price, Halak, Hainsey

plus you have players signed or developed by us, Pateryn, Lindgren, Carr, all appeared in the NHL as well.


Not saying this means anything since the Habs stunk and traded away players so guys like Vejdemo, Evans, Hudon might not have been called up.

That roster would be dead last

 

[montreal]

That roster would be dead last

maybe maybe not since Price-Halak would be a very strong duo in net but it matters none since who could have seen Subban's game dropping so much, or that old man Hainsey would still be in the NHL. Galchenyuk didn't fit in Pitt but seemed to do well in Minny, not that he would do well here since Julien clearly isn't a fan. Then there's injuries, Kotka's season highly impacted by injuries, Juulsen would likely have been up at some point if not out for most of the year.

at the end of the day it's just a list of draft picks that played in the NHL, not meant to form a team and several of these guys only got in due to the Habs being bad or shouldn't have been in the NHL to begin with since they were struggling in the AHL at the time of their call up but that's what happens when you have a GM that doesn't have a clue on how to develop talent.

 

[barbu]

The 27 players originally drafted or signed by the Habs who played in the NHL in 2019-20:

Goal(4)-Price, Halak, Primeau, Lindgren
D(11)-Sergachev, Subban, Hainsey, McDonagh, Y. Weber, Mete, Beaulieu, Fleury, Tinordi, Hanley, Leskinen
F(12)-Pacioretty, Gallagher, Lekhonen, Galchenyuk, Kotkaniemi, De La Rose, Evans, Poehling, Hudon, Vejdemo, Dumont, Carr

Total of 4 players above who reached double digit in goals (Habs had 9 or 10 if Cousins is counted, 11 if Kovalchuk is added).

Total Goals 116 from the 27 players above (average number scored by teams in the NHL= 208) (Habs scored 212 goals).

I already knew we had the worst drafting in the league but this is astoundingly bad. And most of the talent is before 2008.

Why do people keep defending Timmins again? Because he's good at pretending to be competent in interviews?

 

[montreal]

I already knew we had the worst drafting in the league but this is astoundingly bad. And most of the talent is before 2008.

Why do people keep defending Timmins again? Because he's good at pretending to be competent in interviews?

There's no way they are the worst in the league, not when you draft Price, Subban, Pac, McDonagh, Gallagher plus several decent players.

I think it's easy to see that while Timmins has shown success up to the '07 draft, that clearly things went to shit from the '08 to '15 drafts. There are various factors as to why, that doesn't excuse him but imo puts things in the proper context. Since Bergevin became GM, which those '08 to '15 prospects were in his time we have seen every top prospect rushed to the NHL, we have seen terrible decisions made at all coaching levels, we have seen just flat out stupid decisions made in regards to develop time and time again. Injuries have not helped either but that can be said for any team.

So for me the problems start the at the top, Molson and Bergevin, then it's the coaching and development. Timmins and his staff hold their share of the blame as well. But the fact is we are stuck with everyone and now are left with hoping that Bergevin has finally made some progress in stopping to rush every top prospect to the NHL and we are going to need the farm system to produce several quality NHLers and no one knows if that is possible or not. Can he find another Subban, Pac, Price, McDonagh, Gallagher out of Norlinder, Struble, Caufield, Kotka, Primeau, Romanov, Brook, Harris, etc... We'll have to wait and see as the picks have been made so no changing that now and the same group is clearly going to be here for the '20 draft if not beyond.

 

[Habs Icing]

Timmins is not perfect and has even had his downright bad moments (mentioned).

However there are bigger fish to fry here. I also don’t see any material improvement to the club if he is sacked but we keep Bergevin on managing hockey operations. We will get more of the same rushing prospects, yoyo-ing from NHL/AHL, etc...

The one area MB is decent at is trading. Just to name a few of his acquisitions and most of them he gave up next to nothing:

Danualt
Tatar
Suzuki
Domi
Armia
Weber
Petry

His one big whiff was with Drouin.

If from the time MB was here we had had decent drafting, we wouldn't be talking about a garbage Habs' team. TT is the bigger fish you want to fry. Players that TT gave to the team since 2012:

Galchenyuk
Hudon
Dela Rose
Lehkonen
Evans
Sergachev
Mete

We'll leave the last three drafts aside since the jury is out on all those picks.

 

[Treb]

Timmins wanting Giroux over Fischer is full crap though.

His scouting list might have Giroux very high but they certainly did not draft Giroux when they had a chance and the fact he claim that they hesitated until the last second is just rhetoric. His scouting team and himself put f***ing David Fischer above Claude Giroux and the rest is history. If he really really wanted Giroux, 1- He would have been higher on his list in the first place, 2- He was the boss (head scout) and he could have overturn any of his scout decision if he really wanted Giroux.

The rest is just him wanting to save his face from this fiasco. And let's get the record straight, nobody would have blamed him (at least in the french media) to "reach" (as per the consensus ranking) on a french Ontarian that dominated the Q and actually even easier for the fanbase to swallow than some obscure defenseman from Minnesota High School. All this let's revisit history bullshit is IMO tainting more Timmins as a bullshitter.

Apparently:

• He wanted Jeff Carter over Andrei Kostitsyn (just draft him for god sake you are in charge)
• He wanted Claude Giroux over David Fischer (just draft him for god sake you are in charge)
• He wanted John Carlson but we traded away our 1st round pick that year
  
• He wanted Chris Kreider over Louis Leblanc (just draft him for god sake you are in charge)
• He was forced to select Tinordi because the habs were lacking size at the backend.
• He wanted Teuvo Teravainen over Alex Galchenyuk (just draft him for god sake you are in charge)
• He was forced to select McCarron/De la rose because of size
• He wanted Samuel Girard but we traded away our 2x 2nd round pick that year.

Grow a spine and get your guy or stop telling bullshit to the media after the fact.

According to André Savard, Timmins was juggling between Fischer and Giroux. Gainey made the call.
André Savard: la rétrogradation qui a tout changé

 

[The Great Weal]

maybe maybe not since Price-Halak would be a very strong duo in net but it matters none since who could have seen Subban's game dropping so much, or that old man Hainsey would still be in the NHL. Galchenyuk didn't fit in Pitt but seemed to do well in Minny, not that he would do well here since Julien clearly isn't a fan. Then there's injuries, Kotka's season highly impacted by injuries, Juulsen would likely have been up at some point if not out for most of the year. As for Galchenyuk, he's played his best hockey here. Arizona didn't want him either. So what is that, 4 teams that doesn't think he's good?

at the end of the day it's just a list of draft picks that played in the NHL, not meant to form a team and several of these guys only got in due to the Habs being bad or shouldn't have been in the NHL to begin with since they were struggling in the AHL at the time of their call up but that's what happens when you have a GM that doesn't have a clue on how to develop talent.

Price has been well below average for 3 years now and he probably needs a really good defense to be consistently good again

Pacioretty-Kotkaniemi-Gallagher
Galchenyuk-Poehling-Lehkonen
Hudon-Evans-Carr
Vejdemo-DLR-Dumont


McDonagh-Sergachev
Mete-Subban
Beaulieu/Tinordi-Fleury/Weber

Price
Halak

I would bet my house that they don't crack over 200 goals in an 82 game season, and I doubt they get over 170 either.

That's what happens when you have a GM that keeps a buffoon in charge of drafting players. We haven't drafted a single 70+ point player since 2003(Pacioretty was likely going to hit for the very first time playing next to one of the best wingers in the game). Are you really going to tell me that the GM held him back so much that Timmins is unable to draft a great forward for over 15 years? When Brendan Gallagher is your 2nd best forward drafted since 2003, you don't deserve to be in charge of anything hockey related.

 

[barbu]

There's no way they are the worst in the league, not when you draft Price, Subban, Pac, McDonagh, Gallagher plus several decent players.

What do you mean there's no way? Check out the link in post #12. As for the rest of your post, I agree that MB is accountable for the results of his staff, and I haven't seen much in the way of adjustments in 8 years. Lots of excuses though.

 

[montreal]

Price has been well below average for 3 years now and he probably needs a really good defense to be consistently good again

That's what happens when you have a GM that keeps a buffoon in charge of drafting players. We haven't drafted a single 70+ point player since 2003(Pacioretty was likely going to hit for the very first time playing next to one of the best wingers in the game). Are you really going to tell me that the GM held him back so much that Timmins is unable to draft a great forward for over 15 years? When Brendan Gallagher is your 2nd best forward drafted since 2003, you don't deserve to be in charge of anything hockey related.

Price had a 2.49 gaa and .918 save % last year, if you count goalies with at least 35 starts, Price would be tied for 10th in the league in save %, if you bump it up to 50 starts he would be tied for 4th in the league.

He was 10th in gaa for goalies with at least 35 starts, for 50 or more starts he would be 4th again.

Timmins biggest problem is not being able to find high end forwards, his strength has been on the blueline and in net to a lesser extent. He's drafted 3 30+ goal scorers and that's clearly not good enough. He's going to have to hope Caufield and Kotka can reach their ceilings.

What do you mean there's no way? Check out the link in post #12. As for the rest of your post, I agree that MB is accountable for the results of his staff, and I haven't seen much in the way of adjustments in 8 years. Lots of excuses though.

15 of the Habs 27 picks/signed players were goalies/blueliners so of course they are going to struggle to score goals. But I didn't read that poll, I'm talking about overall and not just this year. I don't believe the Habs are the worst drafting team in the NHL when you look at where their ave picks are and how many top 10 picks they have had vs other teams. There are so many really bad drafting teams. The Habs clearly had some shit years for different reasons and very much some of that is on Timmins and his staff.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I already knew we had the worst drafting in the league but this is astoundingly bad. And most of the talent is before 2008.

Why do people keep defending Timmins again? Because he's good at pretending to be competent in interviews?

Context matters. The 12-15 years is where Timmins has produced below draft power substantially. His job relies on his recovery in the 16+ draft years.

Drafting from 08-11:
- 27th in draft power
- 28th in NHL production

Drafting from 12-15
- 13th in draft power
- 27th in NHL production

Drafting from 16-19
- 10th in draft power
- 7th in NHL production (Yes, it's early)

 

[barbu]

15 of the Habs 27 picks/signed players were goalies/blueliners so of course they are going to struggle to score goals. But I didn't read that poll, I'm talking about overall and not just this year. I don't believe the Habs are the worst drafting team in the NHL when you look at where their ave picks are and how many top 10 picks they have had vs other teams. There are so many really bad drafting teams. The Habs clearly had some shit years for different reasons and very much some of that is on Timmins and his staff.

You haven't read the thread thoroughly. It's not a sample of 27 drafted players; It's that out of the 27 players that played in the NHL in 2019-2020, 12 happened to be goaltenders or defensemen.

2019-2020 goals by active players sorted by their original team drafting:
29/30: Minnesota 140
30/30: Montreal 116 (54 of those by pacioretty and Gallagher)


2019-2020 points by active players sorted by their original team drafting:

29/30: Minnesota 403
30/30 Montreal 294

Context matters. The 12-15 years is where Timmins has produced below draft power substantially. His job relies on his recovery in the 16+ draft years.

Drafting from 08-11:
- 27th in draft power
- 28th in NHL production

Drafting from 12-15
- 13th in draft power
- 27th in NHL production

Drafting from 16-19
- 10th in draft power
- 7th in NHL production (Yes, it's early)

Its not only the 2012-2015 years, it's objectively the whole career even if you include 2007.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You haven't read the thread thoroughly. It's not a sample of 27 drafted players; It's that out of the 27 players that played in the NHL in 2019-2020, 12 happened to be goaltenders or defensemen.

2019-2020 goals by active players sorted by their original team drafting:
29/30: Minnesota 140
30/30: Montreal 116 (54 of those by pacioretty and Gallagher)


2019-2020 points by active players sorted by their original team drafting:

29/30: Minnesota 403
30/30 Montreal 294




Its not only the 2012-2015 years, it's objectively the whole career even if you include 2007.

Doesn't matter. My evaluation is a comparison of what we did with what we had with draft power and how that ranks with all other teams. I'm not a fan of just doing cheery picking on hits/busts and not comparing that to all NHL teams. You can't just compare the Habs to the Wild only. I've spend days gathering data and doing a fair evaluation that is applied to all teams equally.

Formulas I developed are 3 levels... I have other ideas to improve this but it's way more effective than cherry picking hits/bust and only comparing that to a few teams and not all teams.

Draft Power: #1 OA(x100) + 2-5(x50) + 6-10(x25) + 11-31(x15) + 32-75(x5) + 76-125(x2) + 126-217(x1)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Draft Pick Hit Score: Elite(x50) + Top 9F/4D(x25) + Starting Goalie(x25) + Depth (x1) / Bust

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Overall Rating Score: Games(x1) + Points(x25) / Draft Power x Draft Pick Hit Score

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Timmins was below average in the 12-15 draft years in terms of results vs draft power. He has recovered it appears in the 16+ draft years (especially 17+). It's early yet but the results are promising.

The right time to fire Timmins was in 2015. That year has passed so it gave him a 2nd chance

 

[barbu]

• Doesn't matter. My evaluation is a comparison of what we did with what we had with draft power and how that ranks with all other teams. I'm not a fan of just doing cheery picking on hits/busts and not comparing that to all NHL teams.
  
  You can't just compare the Habs to the Wild only

Cherry picking? Comparing only to the wild? What are you talking about? The wild data is just to point out that not only are the habs dead last, but that they are significantly behind the Wild who are #29.

If anything by breaking down draft periods instead of a Timmins career aggregate, you are the one cherry picking.

Check post #12 on page 1. Click on the link. Read post 17 from that link.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Cherry picking? Comparing only to the wild? What are you talking about? The wild data is just to point out that not only are the habs dead last, but that they are significantly behind the Wild who are #29.

If anything by breaking down draft periods instead of a Timmins career aggregate, you are the one cherry picking.

Check post #12 on page 1. Click on the link. Read post 17 from that link.

Habs were near dead last from the 12-15 years yes. According to my research anyways. It depends on a lot of factors and what span of years you want to compare. In the 12-15 years, the Wild had 24th best draft power and results are 26th... almost par for the course. 12-15 for the Wild would be similar to 08-11 for the Habs.

Timmins low point is 12-15. Mid range draft power and near bottom of the NHL in results.

 

[barbu]

The right time to fire Timmins was in 2015. That year has passed so it gave him a 2nd chance

And this ladies and gentlemen, is why Molson will keep making loads of money while icing a terrible product.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And this ladies and gentlemen, is why Molson will keep making loads of money while icing a terrible product.

How so? You think a different guy vs Timmins would have a better prospect pool from 16-19 than what we have today? Time to fire him was in 2015 but he got a 2nd chance and our prospect pool is top 5 for sure IMO. Draft power at 10th ranking and results at 7th.... So far and yes it's early but the signs are positive

 

[habsfan92]

TEAM	drafted on team	roster #	current	OTHER TEAM	Drafted in NHL
Vegas	0%	22	0	1	1
Colorado	22%	23	5	8	13
Montreal	23%	22	5	11	16
Minnesota	27%	22	6	11	17
Arizona	27%	22	6	13	19
San Jose	28%	25	7	16	23
Ottawa	29%	21	6	18	24
Vancouver	32%	25	8	5	13
Toronto	35%	23	8	14	22
Carolina	36%	22	8	15	23
Buffalo	36%	22	8	18	26
Dallas	38%	24	9	13	22
Florida	38%	24	9	13	22
Pittsburgh	38%	26	10	11	21
Edmonton	38%	26	10	13	23
NYR	39%	23	9	10	19
Tampa	42%	24	10	12	22
Anaheim	42%	24	10	14	24
Chicago	42%	24	10	16	26
NJ	43%	23	10	8	18
boston	46%	24	11	11	22
Detroit	46%	24	11	11	22
Calgary	48%	23	11	5	16
Washington	48%	23	11	13	24
NYI	48%	25	12	9	21
Winnipeg	50%	26	13	6	19
Nashville	50%	24	12	11	23
St Louis	50%	24	12	13	25
Los Angeles	55%	22	12	17	29
Philadelphia	58%	24	14	5	19
Columbus	60%	25	15	9	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[habsfan92]

Just for giggles

 

[Habs Halifax]

TEAM	drafted on team	roster #	current	OTHER TEAM	Drafted in NHL
Vegas	0%	22	0	1	1
Colorado	22%	23	5	8	13
Montreal	23%	22	5	11	16
Minnesota	27%	22	6	11	17
Arizona	27%	22	6	13	19
San Jose	28%	25	7	16	23
Ottawa	29%	21	6	18	24
Vancouver	32%	25	8	5	13
Toronto	35%	23	8	14	22
Carolina	36%	22	8	15	23
Buffalo	36%	22	8	18	26
Dallas	38%	24	9	13	22
Florida	38%	24	9	13	22
Pittsburgh	38%	26	10	11	21
Edmonton	38%	26	10	13	23
NYR	39%	23	9	10	19
Tampa	42%	24	10	12	22
Anaheim	42%	24	10	14	24
Chicago	42%	24	10	16	26
NJ	43%	23	10	8	18
boston	46%	24	11	11	22
Detroit	46%	24	11	11	22
Calgary	48%	23	11	5	16
Washington	48%	23	11	13	24
NYI	48%	25	12	9	21
Winnipeg	50%	26	13	6	19
Nashville	50%	24	12	11	23
St Louis	50%	24	12	13	25
Los Angeles	55%	22	12	17	29
Philadelphia	58%	24	14	5	19
Columbus	60%	25	15	9	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This does not factor in draft power so it's flawed.

 

[habsfan92]

If it is fact, it is not flawed. Actual numbers, as of Feb 1. You can run many scenarios that twist reality, but numbers are numbers. Basically drafting from all teams over a 10+ years period, showing distribution of those picks among the teams. It is what it is.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If it is fact, it is not flawed. Actual numbers, as of Feb 1. You can run many scenarios that twist reality, but numbers are numbers. Basically drafting from all teams over a 10+ years period, showing distribution of those picks among the teams. It is what it is.

Facts can be flawed based on how they are presented. I am a millioinare and you have $100k.... can be a fact (for example). But I got money from mom and dad and you didn't... that would be the flawed part.

Ignoring draft power is the flawed part in terms of providing a fair evaluation