Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 8)

[Habs Halifax]

That's a stretch but I'm flexible. After Caufield we still don't have any top 6 wingers or top pairing d-men and that's without taking into consideration the Timmins factor. What's the Timmins factor? Glad you asked. It's when your prospect looks good on D and D+1 day but starts to disintegrate into dust on D+2 and D+3.

Is that the formula? All Habs prospects go downhill at D+2 and D+3?

 

[Habs Icing]

You are underselling the 20 and 21 year old centers. Cutting them off from the future cause they are in the NHL but 20 and 21 is flawed. You forgot Poehling who is not a bust yet. We all agree we need to bring in some wingers and RD. But I always find it funny with the Prospect pool arguments and "graduation factor"

I didn't forget POehling. For me he was always at best a third line player.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yeah right, 3 2nd lines. You're dreaming in colour if you think there will be enough offensive talent on this team to construct 3 2nd lines. MB can't even bring in four top 4 defencemen and the defence is what he has been working on the most and you expect 3 2nd lines.

You got anything else of value to say we are not tracking to have three 2nd lines? This one you posted don't work

 

[Habs Icing]

Is that the formula? All Habs prospects go downhill at D+2 and D+3?

I didn't say that. I said Timmins prospects.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

That's a stretch but I'm flexible. After Caufield we still don't have any top 6 wingers or top pairing d-men and that's without taking into consideration the Timmins factor. What's the Timmins factor? Glad you asked. It's when your prospect looks good on D and D+1 day but starts to disintegrate into dust on D+2 and D+3.

I agree about the forwards, but I think Romanov is a top pairing D and Norlinder looks like he will be as well

 

[Habs Halifax]

I didn't forget POehling. For me he was always at best a third line player.

Cheap talk. Being pessimistic is the cheapest thing you can do as a fan. I can see Poehling busting, 4th line, 3rd line or a power forward top 6 forward. Stop acting like you know his hunger to improve and what you seen at age 17/18 is a linear projection. Take a step back and realize that the growth from 18-23 is unpredictable due to the Player's ability to improve in those years.

 

[DAChampion]

I didn't say that. I said Timmins prospects.

Lefebvre and Therrien are no longer with the organization.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I didn't say that. I said Timmins prospects.

Go to the Timmins thread then. Acting like Timmins didn't have a say in prospect value on Suzuki when we traded Patch is ignorance

 

[Habs Icing]

Lefebvre and Therrien are no longer with the organization.

BUt Timmins is still there.

 

[DAChampion]

BUt Timmins is still there.

And so are a lot of other people, but the two largest barriers to development are gone.

Notice how Kotkaniemi rebounded this year. Go back to mid-season and half the board was saying he was going to be mediocre at best, that he lacked skills, and was blasting Timmins for picking him.

Between Juulsen, Poehling, Brook, Fleury, I expect at least two to show solid growth this year. If this were still the Therrien/Lefebvre era? All four would regress.

 

[Habs Halifax]

BUt Timmins is still there.

You should go and look at the drafts and play the cherry picking game...

KK vs Tkachuk or Hughes
Poehling vs Tolvanen
Caufield vs Newhook
Brook vs ?
Norlinder vs ?
Harris vs ?
Struble vs ?
Ylonen vs ?
Romanov vs ?
Hillis vs ?
Primeau vs ?

But wait... he took Tinordi and McCarron 7 and 10 years ago so that will be your argument. All of our new pool of prospects will end up like Tinordi and McCarron for sure in their D+2 and D+3 years

 

[smirob]

I don't know why prospects are being discussed in here other than in trade proposals. Acting like KK/Suzuki/Romanov aren't recent enough to be considered draft picks is a new one. KK and Suzuki were good enough prospects that they've made the team and contributed, just because they didn't stick in Laval for 3-4 years doesn't mean they aren't still prospects.

We have the best group of young players we've had in a long time (including those good enough to crack the habs lineup)

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't know why prospects are being discussed in here other than in trade proposals. Acting like KK/Suzuki/Romanov aren't recent enough to be considered draft picks is a new one. KK and Suzuki were good enough prospects that they've made the team and contributed, just because they didn't stick in Laval for 3-4 years doesn't mean they aren't still prospects.

We have the best group of young players we've had in a long time (including those good enough to crack the habs lineup)

Agreed! When looking at youth and trying to project future ability... age 23 and under is where it's at! Taking Suzuki and KK out of our prospect pool in attempts to say our future sucks reeks of Timmins hate.

 

[ZUKI]

Marc Bergevin's Drafts 2019 Entry	NHL Totals
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2019 Entry	15	1	Cole Caufield	R	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2019 Entry	46	2	Jayden Struble	D	St. Sebastiens [U.S. H.S.]
2019 Entry	64	3	Mattias Norlinder	D	MODO [Sweden Jrs.]
2019 Entry	77	3	Gianni Fairbrother	D	Everett Silvertips [WHL]
2019 Entry	126	5	Jacob Leguerrier	D	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]
2019 Entry	131	5	Rhett Pitlick	L	Chaska [Minn H.S.]
2019 Entry	138	5	Frederik Dichow	G	Vojens [Denmark Jrs.]
2019 Entry	170	6	Arsen Khisamutdinov	F	Nizhnekamsk [Russia Jrs.]
2019 Entry	201	7	Rafael Harvey-Pinard	L	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
2019 Entry	206	7	Kieran Ruscheinski	D	Calgary Northstars Midget AAA
2018 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2018 Entry	3	1	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	C	Assat Pori [SM-liiga]	115	17	25	42	49
2018 Entry	35	2	Jesse Ylonen	R	Espoo (Finland Jrs)
2018 Entry	38	2	Alexander Romanov	D	CSKA-2 (Russia Jrs.)
2018 Entry	56	2	Jacob Olofsson	C	Timra IK [Swe-1]
2018 Entry	66	3	Cam Hillis	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]
2018 Entry	71	3	Jordan Harris	D	Kimball-Union (New Hamp. H.S.)
2018 Entry	97	4	Allan McShane	C	Oshawa Generals [OHL]
2018 Entry	123	4	Jack Gorniak	L	West Salem (Wisc. H.S.)
2018 Entry	128	5	Cole Fonstad	L	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
2018 Entry	133	5	Samuel Houde	C	Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
2018 Entry	190	7	Brett Stapley	C	Vernon Vipers [BCHL]
2017 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2017 Entry	25	1	Ryan Poehling	C	St. Cloud State [NCHC]	28	4	1	5	4
2017 Entry	56	2	Josh Brook	D	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]
2017 Entry	58	2	Joni Ikonen	C	Frolunda [Sweden-Jr]
2017 Entry	68	3	Scott Walford	D	Victoria Royals [WHL]
2017 Entry	87	3	Cale Fleury	D	Kootenay Ice [WHL]	41	1	0	1	6
2017 Entry	149	5	Jarret Tyszka	D	Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
2017 Entry	199	7	Cayden Primeau	G	Lincoln Stars [USHL]	2	0	0	0	0
2016 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2016 Entry	9	1	Mikhail Sergachev	D	Windsor Spitfires [OHL]	228	25	81	106	124
2016 Entry	70	3	William Bitten	C	Flint Firebirds [OHL]
2016 Entry	100	4	Victor Mete	D	London Knights [OHL]	171	4	27	31	30
2016 Entry	124	5	Casey Staum	D	Grand Rapids (Minn. H.S.)
2016 Entry	160	6	Michael Pezzetta	C	Sudbury Wolves [OHL]
2016 Entry	187	7	Arvid Henrikson	D	AIK Jrs (Sweden)
2015 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2015 Entry	26	1	Noah Juulsen	D	Everett Silvertips [WHL]	44	2	6	8	10
2015 Entry	87	3	Lukas Vejdemo	C	Djurgardens Jrs. (Sweden)	7	1	0	1	0
2015 Entry	131	5	Matt Bradley	C	Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]
2015 Entry	177	6	Simon Bourque	D	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
2015 Entry	207	7	Jeremiah Addison	L	Ottawa 67's [OHL]
2014 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2014 Entry	26	1	Nikita Scherbak	R	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]	37	6	2	8	10
2014 Entry	73	3	Brett Lernout	D	Swift Current Broncos [WHL]	21	0	1	1	6
2014 Entry	125	5	Nikolas Koberstein	D	Olds Grizzlys [AJHL]
2014 Entry	147	5	Daniel Audette	C	Sherbrooke Phoenix [QMJHL]
2014 Entry	177	6	Hayden Hawkey	G	Omaha Lancers [USHL]
2014 Entry	207	7	Jake Evans	F	St. Michael's Buzzers [OJHL]	13	2	1	3	0
2013 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2013 Entry	25	1	Michael McCarron	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	69	2	6	8	110
2013 Entry	34	2	Jacob De La Rose	C	Leksands IF [Swe-1]	229	13	24	37	77
2013 Entry	36	2	Zachary Fucale	G	Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL]
2013 Entry	55	2	Artturi Lehkonen	L	KalPa Kuopio [SM-liiga]	291	54	53	107	84
2013 Entry	71	3	Connor Crisp	C	Erie Otters [OHL]
2013 Entry	86	3	Sven Andrighetto	R	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]	216	31	52	83	42
2013 Entry	116	4	Martin Reway	L	Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]
2013 Entry	176	6	Jeremy Gregoire	C	Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL]
2012 Entry
Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2012 Entry	3	1	Alex Galchenyuk	C	Sarnia Sting [OHL]	549	135	185	320	201
2012 Entry	33	2	Sebastian Collberg	R	Frolunda HC [SEL]
2012 Entry	51	2	Dalton Thrower	D	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
2012 Entry	64	3	Tim Bozon	L	Kamloops Blazers [WHL]
2012 Entry	94	4	Brady Vail	C	Windsor Spitfires [OHL]
2012 Entry	122	5	Charles Hudon	C	Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]	125	14	27	41	56
2012 Entry	154	6	Erik Nystrom	L	MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SEL]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I can believe how good Timmins drafted the past 3 years . It's a mystery that so much fans here hate him and hope he will be fired. The average number of drafted players that are going to play in the NHL is between 1-2 / team.

Looking at these lists, i could see 4-5 players from each of the last 3 years draft playing one day in the NHL

 

[FormerLurker]

I can believe how good Timmins drafted the past 3 years . It's a mystery that so much fans here hate him and hope he will be fired. The average number of drafted players that are going to play in the NHL is between 1-2 / team.

Looking at these lists, i could see 4-5 players from each of the last 3 years draft playing one day in the NHL

It's more likely that only 1-3 players from the last 3 drafts will play in the NHL. In any case you can't judge a draft nor the group responsible for it so soon after the draft. Look back at 2008-2015 and you will see why Timmins and team get criticism. Simply not enough talent found in 8 consecutive drafts.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's more likely that only 1-3 players from the last 3 drafts will play in the NHL. In any case you can't judge a draft nor the group responsible for it so soon after the draft. Look back at 2008-2015 and you will see why Timmins and team get criticism. Simply not enough talent found in 8 consecutive drafts.

What if the majority of the prospects who don't touch Lefebvre progress.. would we be willing to concede that the problem seems to majorly be the development and not so much the man making the picks? If the empirical data keeps piling up.. we should definitely follow it, right?

I'm still in favor of firing someone who's been here for so long and turning over the organization with no bastions of our mediocrity left.

 

[le_sean]

It's too easy to say it's development. A good player will succeed regardless. We supposedly have a great development coach in Laval now - look at his success in the juniors. But Brook, Poehling, Vejdemo didn't take any steps forward. Even Evans barely took a step froward.

 

[FormerLurker]

What if the majority of the prospects who don't touch Lefebvre progress.. would we be willing to concede that the problem seems to majorly be the development and not so much the man making the picks? If the empirical data keeps piling up.. we should definitely follow it, right?

I'm still in favor of firing someone who's been here for so long and turning over the organization with no bastions of our mediocrity left.

No doubt that poor development also contributed to the drought during those dark years. We'll never know what share of the blame drafting and development each should be attributed, but I think we can all agree that neither side was good enough.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's too easy to say it's development. A good player will succeed regardless. We supposedly have a great development coach in Laval now - look at his success in the juniors. But Brook, Poehling, Vejdemo didn't take any steps forward. Even Evans barely took a step froward.

That's false.. Brook looked a lot better toward the end of the year than he did at the start.. Evans took a step forward and may have won himself a job on the team next season which is tough to do when Julien is your coach.

Poehling got yo-yoed.. so ultimately not much that can be done when Bergevin/Julien are repeating mistakes.. but also, no one ever said development is entirely on the coach.. a kid who doesn't even work out while he's off for months..

 

[Big Empty]

Our prospect pool is stacked? Name me a decent top 6 forward prospect after Caufield. Ylonen and Hillis don't look like anything special. Name me the #1 and #2 defencemen in Laval..

KK, Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov, Norlinder, Primeau, Poehling, Ylönen, Harris, Struble, Fleury, Hillis, Brook, etc.

It’s not just me saying it. All the experts say we have a top prospect pool.

 

[montreal]

So I was reading up on The Athletic's annual NHL scouts poll and one of the questions was the impact of the pandemic on their jobs. One of the answer was:

• Where do you start? I think the biggest challenge is for the director of scouting, they really have to trust the area guys.

I know @montreal is not happy with our Q scouts, it would suck since this is a good haul for the Q, but are there certain regions where you guys are confident over our scouts opinion? The Finland scout(s) have been doing better these last few draft it seems.

PS: this answer is useful to those who don't understand the importance of attending live games:

• Video is OK but (in person) you get to see what players are doing away from the puck. Most of the game is played away from having the puck on your stick so the video scouts who think they can get the same read are wrong in my opinion. Video is good to confirm what you already know or have seen live.

• I miss the small attitude things of players, how they behave on the bench after a bad shift, how they behave after his peers make mistakes, the body language. I miss overall the possibility to watch things that can (show) parts of the player’s personality.

well it's the question of does Timmins not trust his Q scouts, the league/region, or just hasn't worked out where they haven't had much chance to draft a local with a top pick since the Leblanc/Beaulieu/Fucale days. All we know is that we suck drafting local kids, in the last 4 years we drafted 2 token kids at 133rd OA or later (which was stupid to waste a 5th imo when there was better players for sure). And how sad things have become that they had to use a 7th round pick on a local because they worried he wouldn't want to sign if he went undrafted.

 

[Archijerej]

I can believe how good Timmins drafted the past 3 years .

His last 3 drafts have always been terrific. Until they weren't.

 

[le_sean]

That's false.. Brook looked a lot better toward the end of the year than he did at the start.. Evans took a step forward and may have won himself a job on the team next season which is tough to do when Julien is your coach.

Poehling got yo-yoed.. so ultimately not much that can be done when Bergevin/Julien are repeating mistakes.. but also, no one ever said development is entirely on the coach.. a kid who doesn't even work out while he's off for months..

You can't say that about Brook just because he had a stretch near the end where he was good. He's an offensive defenceman that got 13 points. That isn't good, no matter how you spin it.

Evans took a slight step forward but his offensive production barely moved. Again, I gave credit there.

Poehling just didn't look good in the AHL. He also wasn't yo-yoed. He was on the big club from November until Feb and played 27 straight games. Not exactly yo-yoing.

Development isn't great, but I'm blaming drafting more. Good players find ways.

 

[blarneylad]

Suzuki might have proven himself a bit but he still has to surpass Danault's production. (He will manage to surpass him.)

Kotakaniemi hasn't proven jack shit...good he scored a few goals during the playoffs. Do it for a full season and than we will talk?

We might have 2-3 decent prospect but that's all what they are... decent for the moment.

The Future is bright is just some big bullshit. We need to add more prospect, we don't have enough.

I don't see Suzuki nor Kotkaniemi having any trouble beating Danault and his cement handed career high 13 goals. Especially if given the productive wingers that Danault enjoyed.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

KK, Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov, Norlinder, Primeau, Poehling, Ylönen, Harris, Struble, Fleury, Hillis, Brook, etc.

It’s not just me saying it. All the experts say we have a top prospect pool.

Bit disingenuous to say "after Caufield" as well considering he is a top 5 prospect outside the NHL. Moving goalposts!