Travis Sanheim Discussion Thread Part Two

[JojoTheWhale]

For a guy who is supposed to be ****ty in his own zone, it's surprising his defensive metrics grade out better than his offensive metrics (which are still good).

I know you know this, but not everyone follows these particular numbers the same way -- this has been a constant from damn near day one. However you want to say he does it, he's had phenomenal suppression numbers the whole way through.

The only exception was Goals Against. Not a coincidence.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Sanheim is 21 and one of the best defensemen in the league. When Howe was 21, he was a forward in an expansion league. Sanheim's play in the defensive zone is pretty much vintage 1980s Mark Howe.

No. Sanheim is not one of the best defensemen in the league.
No. Sanheim is not comparable to Mark Howe.

 

[baudib1]

No. Sanheim is not one of the best defensemen in the league.
No. Sanheim is not comparable to Mark Howe.

The level he's played at this year is higher than what Provorov played at last year, and Provorov was ~ a top 10-12 Norris candidate.

If you went into a time machine and brought Mark Howe from 1985 to the present, he'd play defense the way Sanheim does.

Now Howe was one of the most well-rounded players in the history of the league; he had the best wrist-shot of any defenseman I've seen and he was a great PP QB. Sanheim may never get that shot because of Ghost, but he has ridiculous offensive skills, and he's 6 inches taller. But it's still likely his offensive stats will end up looking like ... Eric Desjardins or somebody and not Scott Niedermayer.

But also, Howe played 40 years ago and half the players in the league (and 95% of the goalies) then couldn't beat out the amateur free agents tryouts of today.

 

[catbellysqueezer]

I don't understand advanced stats, I still need to be told where prospects fall on a scale of 0 to 1 Erik Gustafssons

 

[Rebels57]

Remember when Hak scratched him last year when his parents flew in to watch him play for the first time?

f*** that guy.

 

[Striiker]

Sanheim has pretty easily been our best defensemen this year. I really can't imagine an argument for anyone else...

Give him consistent PP time and let him play with the top line at 5v5 the way Hagg did and the points will quickly catch up to the eye test.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The level he's played at this year is higher than what Provorov played at last year, and Provorov was ~ a top 10-12 Norris candidate.

If you went into a time machine and brought Mark Howe from 1985 to the present, he'd play defense the way Sanheim does.

Now Howe was one of the most well-rounded players in the history of the league; he had the best wrist-shot of any defenseman I've seen and he was a great PP QB. Sanheim may never get that shot because of Ghost, but he has ridiculous offensive skills, and he's 6 inches taller. But it's still likely his offensive stats will end up looking like ... Eric Desjardins or somebody and not Scott Niedermayer.

But also, Howe played 40 years ago and half the players in the league (and 95% of the goalies) then couldn't beat out the amateur free agents tryouts of today.

Get back to me when Sanheim is consistently around +50, let alone has a season of +85.

 

[baudib1]

Get back to me when Sanheim is consistently around +50, let alone has a season of +85.

That's like saying the best hitters in baseball today aren't as good as guys who played 80 years ago because no one hits .400 now.

 

[Striiker]

That's like saying the best hitters in baseball today aren't as good as guys who played 80 years ago because no one hits .400 now.

One day you’ll learn that +/- is the only stat you should use to judge players.

Everything else is meaningless.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That's like saying the best hitters in baseball today aren't as good as guys who played 80 years ago because no one hits .400 now.

Then what’s the point of your comparison if you feel that way?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

One day you’ll learn that for all the crying Striiker does about people being dishonest, no one inveterately misrepresents others’ opinions like he does. Most dishonest poster on the board.

 

[baudib1]

Then what’s the point of your comparison if you feel that way?

First off I'm talking about Sanheim's skills. Obviously he doesn't have 1/10th the accomplishments Howe had.

But the point is you can't use raw unfiltered stats like batting average and +/- from vastly different eras to directly compare players:

1. You have all the various reasons why +/- is a flawed stat.
2. One of the chief ones being Howe's defensive partner, Brad McCrimmon, was a standout player in his own right. McCrimmon led the league in +/- after leaving Philly while Howe's numbers plummeted.
3. The Flyers were the dominant team in the Eastern Conference.
4. The era was totally different. No one puts up +80 anymore. Goal-scoring is way down from that era, and the disparity in talent was much greater in the 1980s. The 1980s were a silly era with silly numbers. The league was weaker, there was a fraction of the European players, etc.
5. Why are we talking about +/- anyway?

 

[Striiker]

First off I'm talking about Sanheim's skills. Obviously he doesn't have 1/10th the accomplishments Howe had.

But the point is you can't use raw unfiltered stats like batting average and +/- from vastly different eras to directly compare players:

1. You have all the various reasons why +/- is a flawed stat.
2. One of the chief ones being Howe's defensive partner, Brad McCrimmon, was a standout player in his own right. McCrimmon led the league in +/- after leaving Philly while Howe's numbers plummeted.
3. The Flyers were the dominant team in the Eastern Conference.
4. The era was totally different. No one puts up +80 anymore. Goal-scoring is way down from that era, and the disparity in talent was much greater in the 1980s. The 1980s were a silly era with silly numbers. The league was weaker, there was a fraction of the European players, etc.
5. Why are we talking about +/- anyway?

Great post.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

First off I'm talking about Sanheim's skills. Obviously he doesn't have 1/10th the accomplishments Howe had.

But the point is you can't use raw unfiltered stats like batting average and +/- from vastly different eras to directly compare players:

1. You have all the various reasons why +/- is a flawed stat.
2. One of the chief ones being Howe's defensive partner, Brad McCrimmon, was a standout player in his own right. McCrimmon led the league in +/- after leaving Philly while Howe's numbers plummeted.
3. The Flyers were the dominant team in the Eastern Conference.
4. The era was totally different. No one puts up +80 anymore. Goal-scoring is way down from that era, and the disparity in talent was much greater in the 1980s. The 1980s were a silly era with silly numbers. The league was weaker, there was a fraction of the European players, etc.
5. Why are we talking about +/- anyway?

Mark Howe was one of the best defensemen in the league. Travis Sanheim is not. If you don’t believe in eras, why make the comparison in the first place? Skills-wise? Ok. Aren’t there a plethora of current defensemen you could better compare Sanheim with? Nick Leddy?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I don't understand advanced stats, I still need to be told where prospects fall on a scale of 0 to 1 Erik Gustafssons

Adam Ginning is 1/1 Gustafssons.

 

[baudib1]

Mark Howe was one of the best defensemen in the league. Travis Sanheim is not. If you don’t believe in eras, why make the comparison in the first place? Skills-wise? Ok. Aren’t there a plethora of current defensemen you could better compare Sanheim with? Nick Leddy?

The guy he was most often compared to when he was drafted was Ryan McDonagh. But eh, tbh I'd be pretty disappointed if he didn't turn out better than that.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I love Sanheim, but yeah saying he is the next Mark Howe is just setting some of you up for disappointment. No kid should be compared to a HHOFer.
Now that the moron head coach is gone, Sanheim can show why he was drafted so high

 

[baudib1]

I'll compare him to whoever I want and he'll be just fine. I mean if Voracek tells him about my posts maybe he'll get a big head but w/e.

 

[mja]

Mark Howe was one of the best defensemen in the league. Travis Sanheim is not. If you don’t believe in eras, why make the comparison in the first place? Skills-wise? Ok. Aren’t there a plethora of current defensemen you could better compare Sanheim with? Nick Leddy?

He's saying he personally believes Sanheim has Mark Howe-level ability and potential. Mark Howe was my first favorite hockey player, and I don't know that Sanheim has that kind of potential in him, but if @baudib1 wants to go out on a limb like that, more power to him.

I apologize in advance for the "flex", but quite a few people on HF killed me during the summer of 2010 when I said Giroux had 90-100 point potential and that he was (going to be) a better player than Richards. It might not have looked likely to most people back then, but it turned out to be correct nonetheless. Who knows, in ten years or less this comparison might not seem so presumptuous?

Frankly, I'll be thrilled if Sanheim can just be a top pairing guy. Anything after that is bonus.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

He's saying he personally believes Sanheim has Mark Howe-level ability and potential. Mark Howe was my first favorite hockey player, and I don't know that Sanheim has that kind of potential in him, but if @baudib1 wants to go out on a limb like that, more power to him.

I apologize in advance for the "flex", but quite a few people on HF killed me during the summer of 2010 when I said Giroux had 90-100 point potential and that he was (going to be) a better player than Richards. It might not have looked likely to most people back then, but it turned out to be correct nonetheless. Who knows, in ten years or less this comparison might not seem so presumptuous?

Frankly, I'll be thrilled if Sanheim can just be a top pairing guy. Anything after that is bonus.

He also said he already considered Sanheim one of the best defensemen in the league. I’m saying pump the brakes.

 

[mja]

He also said he already considered Sanheim one of the best defensemen in the league. I’m saying pump the brakes.

Back in 2010, should I have pumped the breaks when people kept replying to my Giroux predictions with a pithy reminder that his career high was a mere 47 points?

If he feels certain Sanheim's going to end up there, why pump the breaks? He's not talking about past accomplishments, he's talking about current ability. He's calling it. He could well be wrong, probably is wrong, but if he isn't then we're the ones eating crow, not him.

This all goes back to the fact that many people struggle with evaluating talent on their own, as in they're not confident in being able to do that, and then fall back into lazy hockey cliches while taking a wait-and-see approach before being able to make any kind of real evaluation. A player has to do it before these people are comfortable saying he can do it. That's a very safe approach, and I don't mean that as a compliment.

 

[Frickley]

I love Travis Sanheim.

 

[Tripod]

Back in 2010, should I have pumped the breaks when people kept replying to my Giroux predictions with a pithy reminder that his career high was a mere 47 points?

If he feels certain Sanheim's going to end up there, why pump the breaks? He's not talking about past accomplishments, he's talking about current ability. He's calling it. He could well be wrong, probably is wrong, but if he isn't then we're the ones eating crow, not him.

This all goes back to the fact that many people struggle with evaluating talent on their own, as in they're not confident in being able to do that, and then fall back into lazy hockey cliches while taking a wait-and-see approach before being able to make any kind of real evaluation. A player has to do it before these people are comfortable saying he can do it. That's a very safe approach, and I don't mean that as a compliment.

The difference is, he said Sanheim IS one of the best Dmen in the league. Not WILL BE......but IS.

There is a big difference.

I am siding with Ghosts Beer. Sanheim IS NOT one of the best dmen in the league. But does he have the raw talent and skill to be one someday? Yes, I think he does. But that day is not today. And that was what GB was saying.

 

[lancer247]

The level he's played at this year is higher than what Provorov played at last year, and Provorov was ~ a top 10-12 Norris candidate.

If you went into a time machine and brought Mark Howe from 1985 to the present, he'd play defense the way Sanheim does.

Now Howe was one of the most well-rounded players in the history of the league; he had the best wrist-shot of any defenseman I've seen and he was a great PP QB. Sanheim may never get that shot because of Ghost, but he has ridiculous offensive skills, and he's 6 inches taller. But it's still likely his offensive stats will end up looking like ... Eric Desjardins or somebody and not Scott Niedermayer.

But also, Howe played 40 years ago and half the players in the league (and 95% of the goalies) then couldn't beat out the amateur free agents tryouts of today.

I like Sanheim and would like to see him get more opps to grow offensively. Also, his d is much better than he gets credit for being.

I don’t want to throw metrics back and forth. People can make numbers say a lot of things. One way to judge him in comparison to a player like Howe in any generation is:
Are coaches game planning for Sanheim? Are they matching lines to avoid Sanheim?
The answer to both is no.
I hope sanheim eclipses Howe one day but regardless of what the analytics say he isn’t in the same ball park as Howe.

Teams game planned for Howe a number of ways.
Keep the puck away from him. Don’t dump it on his side of the ice.
Physically pound him.

Keeping the puck away from him wasn’t easy.
Physically pounding became routine until the Flyers put Glenn Cochrane as his partner. Howe put up the numbers he did while carrying an anchor like cochrane around all game.

 

[Jray42]

Back in 2010, should I have pumped the breaks when people kept replying to my Giroux predictions with a pithy reminder that his career high was a mere 47 points?

If he feels certain Sanheim's going to end up there, why pump the breaks? He's not talking about past accomplishments, he's talking about current ability. He's calling it. He could well be wrong, probably is wrong, but if he isn't then we're the ones eating crow, not him.

This all goes back to the fact that many people struggle with evaluating talent on their own, as in they're not confident in being able to do that, and then fall back into lazy hockey cliches while taking a wait-and-see approach before being able to make any kind of real evaluation. A player has to do it before these people are comfortable saying he can do it. That's a very safe approach, and I don't mean that as a compliment.

Did you say you thought Giroux was one of the best forwards in the league right then and there? Or did you happen to take the stance you thought he would become one of the best and score 90-100? Because baudib said he thinks Sanheim is currently one of the best defensemen in the league. While he’s obviously incredibly skilled and oozes potential, I highly disagree with the notion that Sanheim is currently one of the best dmen in the league today. I’m certainly hopeful he gets to that level in the (near) future, obviously. And don’t get me wrong, I think Sanheim is tremendous.