Travis Dermott 2019-20 Season Overview and Contract Projection

[BertCorbeau]

I'm think I'm liking a 3-year bridge term deal .. I believe it keeps him as a RFA at the end of the contract, and helps add some stability to the defensive group if Rielly cannot be re-signed. This would keep Dermott under contract for the season after Rielly's contract ends.

As he stays a RFA it would help keep the cost down. I like his potential, and have been encouraged by his play since he's fully recovered from his shoulder injury. I think he can be a solid top 4 d-man, he just needs time to polish his game at the NHL level. Need to be patient with defensemen. He can also be experimented on the right side.

The only other option would be a longer term (5-6 years) at a significant discount, if he'd take it. I would gamble on that.

 

[kb]

Its ufa vs rfa anyways. Dermott doesnt have leverage while Holl did. no team is going to waste an offersheet on a non star like him

All they need to do is offer him a 2 x $2.1 million, and the Leafs would have no option but to trade a third liner to fit him in, or the Leafs would receive a 3rd round pick in compensation.

I can see a lot of offer sheets like this. Teams are in trouble with the flat cap.

 

[deletethis]

Does it really matter what Dermott's new team pays him next season?

 

[kb]

Does it really matter what Dermott's new team pays him next season?

Of course it matters what the Leafs pay him.

 

[biotk]

In 3-5 years he could win a Norris.

Chuck Norris is as likely to win that trophy in the next 3 - 5 years as Dermott is.

 

[therealkoho]

Dermott is a kind of hard call, I like the player personally, and I think he's shown that he is an NHL Dman

the known is that he's talented and smart enough to handle 12 mins of ice time 82 times a year

inre the cap what do you pay for a guy who may never be more then a 5/6 guy in a unique cap situation like the Leafs have?

is he capable of playing up in the line-up and how high up for long stretches in case of injuries, do his capabilities allow for him to play either side of the ice, is he smart and disciplined enough to play the PK at the NHL level

I really don't know the answers to any of those questions, I don't think anybody does for that matter

it's my feeling that he'll never play in the 1st pair on a regular basis, it's also my feeling that given another season of experience he could be capable of playing in the 2nd pair, not as a standout type of player but as a player who can give you a fairly consistent effort game in and game out, or is that where Liljegren will end up relegating Dermott to 3rd pairing?

4yrs 1.65m aav and see if he bites

if he suddenly blossoms into something more, then you end up with a very valuable and highly attractive asset

if he is no more than what he is currently, then you have a very good 3rd pairing guy on a somewhat decent contract, but maybe too much for the Leaf cap, and a contract far from untradeable if it needs to be moved

 

[Advanced stats]

Does it really matter what Dermott's new team pays him next season?

Yes, yes, let's trade a 23 year old defenseman who is just coming into his own..

 

[4thline]

Dermott showed the ability to handle 20+ minutes a night in matchup minutes this year. With his mobility and puck handling if he can convert to the right he's the perfect partner for either Rielly or Muzzin.

He's 23. Moving him because he's no longer the flavour of the week could have Stralman esque sting.

 

[Menzinger]

Holl didn’t really have much leverage either.

Is Dermott eligible to be offer-sheeted?

Holl had the ability to leave, and thr Leafs needed a warm body. Imo inl saw it a bit of a gamble that if Holl could prove he was capable of playing in the top 4 theyd have a 4/5 guy locked up at below market value.

Dermott hasnt broken out yet, had injury issues and doesnt have good production. So while yes he can receive an offersheet, he really doesnt have anywhere to go

 

[Menzinger]

All they need to do is offer him a 2 x $2.1 million, and the Leafs would have no option but to trade a third liner to fit him in, or the Leafs would receive a 3rd round pick in compensation.

I can see a lot of offer sheets like this. Teams are in trouble with the flat cap.

Eh, but GMs dont really act like that though. Offersheets are always big news when they happen because of how rare they are - and when they do, its targeted at a star like Aho. Not a guy like Dermott.

GMs basically act in collusion beacuse they seemingly prefer the stability of not worrying about the threat of offersheets for most of their rfas vs the benefit of securing players that way.

Ive seen folks for a few seasons keep claiming thay offersheets will happen more often but ive yet to see it hapoen

 

[ACC1224]

All they need to do is offer him a 2 x $2.1 million, and the Leafs would have no option but to trade a third liner to fit him in, or the Leafs would receive a 3rd round pick in compensation.

I can see a lot of offer sheets like this. Teams are in trouble with the flat cap.

Offer Sheets need to be signed though. Why would he do that?

 

[kb]

Eh, but GMs dont really act like that though. Offersheets are always big news when they happen because of how rare they are - and when they do, its targeted at a star like Aho. Not a guy like Dermott.

GMs basically act in collusion beacuse they seemingly prefer the stability of not worrying about the threat of offersheets for most of their rfas vs the benefit of securing players that way.

Ive seen folks for a few seasons keep claiming thay offersheets will happen more often but ive yet to see it hapoen

Agreed. Never believed they were a realistic threat in past years either.

But this flat cap has created a unique situation for a lot of teams. The issue stopping teams was more the threat of retaliation, which was possible with the rising cap . With the Leafs current cap situation and the flat cap, it would be years before they could even entertain the notion of offer sheeting in retaliation. Plus Dermott and Mikheyev really don't have a lot of impetus to sign for cheap with the Leafs knowing that the next couple of years will be no better financially for them - unless the Leafs do make a trade to free up space.

And as always, just the threat of an offer sheet would be enough to require the Leafs to make trades so they have the cap space available to match.

Leafs and many other teams are in this same situation...

 

[kb]

Offer Sheets need to be signed though. Why would he do that?

Because with the flat cap coming, there won't be a future payday for years for either of them without the Leafs trading a fair amount of cap out. That's not an attractive proposition to a player.

"Trust me, we'll make it up to you the next time the next time" doesn't hold any weight in a flat cap world.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Dermott showed the ability to handle 20+ minutes a night in matchup minutes this year. With his mobility and puck handling if he can convert to the right he's the perfect partner for either Rielly or Muzzin.

He's 23. Moving him because he's no longer the flavour of the week could have Stralman esque sting.

This is how I see it .. Up to his shoulder injury last year he was dominating on the 3rd pairing .. Took some time to get his legs back under him this season but he started to find his groove when asked to play a bigger role. \

He showed great potential with the Marlies and is only in his second full NHL season .. it would be silly to move him at this point given the Leafs blue line woes. Especially if they can't re-sign Rielly.

It seems that now having Sandin along with Mo and Muzzin, that we have a Rask-Pogge situation in that people deemed one of them expendable because the other was "the guy"... In reality we should be hanging on and developing Dermott.

He could be signed for a bargain and be a valuable piece for many years.

 

[ACC1224]

Because with the flat cap coming, there won't be a future payday for years for either of them without the Leafs trading a fair amount of cap out. That's not an attractive proposition to a player.

"Trust me, we'll make it up to you the next time the next time" doesn't hold any weight in a flat cap world.

You don’t think Dermott will get more than 2 a year?

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed. Never believed they were a realistic threat in past years either.

But this flat cap has created a unique situation for a lot of teams. The issue stopping teams was more the threat of retaliation, which was possible with the rising cap . With the Leafs current cap situation and the flat cap, it would be years before they could even entertain the notion of offer sheeting in retaliation. Plus Dermott and Mikheyev really don't have a lot of impetus to sign for cheap with the Leafs knowing that the next couple of years will be no better financially for them - unless the Leafs do make a trade to free up space.

And as always, just the threat of an offer sheet would be enough to require the Leafs to make trades so they have the cap space available to match.

Leafs and many other teams are in this same situation...

I think we'd just have to agree to disagree here beacuse im not at all confident we'll see those offersheets at any higher rate this offseason, especially for non-star caliber players.

All Dermott has been so far is a #5 with signs of maybe being something better. I just dont see teams breaking the anti-offersheet norm to get that kind of player. And if he wants to refuse to sign a 1-2 year deal with the Leafs he can sit. Muzzin, Rielly and Sandin can fill in that left side without him

 

[kb]

You don’t think Dermott will get more than 2 a year?

Hard to say. Under normal circumstances I would say no way he'd sign for 2 years, he'd probably sign a contract for 3/4 years in the mid/high $2's to take him to UFA. But the flat cap means the money won't be there like it usually would be.

I think the cap starts going up after 2 years, so that I why I said 2 years - he will have leverage and still have arb rights. An offer sheeting team can go up to $4.2 million and only be required to surrender a 2nd round pick. Pretty good value for any signing team.

This is all just spitballing though. One trade of cap out and we aren't even talking about this.

 

[kb]

I think we'd just have to agree to disagree here beacuse im not at all confident we'll see those offersheets at any higher rate this offseason, especially for non-star caliber players.

All Dermott has been so far is a #5 with signs of maybe being something better. I just dont see teams breaking the anti-offersheet norm to get that kind of player. And if he wants to refuse to sign a 1-2 year deal with the Leafs he can sit. Muzzin, Rielly and Sandin can fill in that left side without him

I would be with you on that in a normal situation. I saw a lot more from Dermott in the weeks before the shutdown, so the talent is there. He was on the top pairing with Holl, and they weren't getting caved in. He got over 20 minutes 16 of the 23 games leading up to the shutdown, and was over 25 minutes twice. That's top pairing, and he was doing decently well.

But at the end of the day, the Leafs will figure it out and keep who they want.

IMO Sandin is nowhere near that level now, nor will he be for at least a couple of years.

 

[biotk]

Plus Dermott and Mikheyev really don't have a lot of impetus to sign for cheap with the Leafs knowing that the next couple of years will be no better financially for them

That is going to be the biggest thing for the Leafs. A flat cap for a year (or perhaps two) with the belief that the cap is going to rise significantly after that might convince some players to take a short, cheap deal and wait for a big raise. Basically a flat cap for the next 3 or 4 years (which is pretty much a guarantee) followed by a slowly rising cap for the next couple years after that. It would be a shock if the cap managed to rise above 84M by 2024/25 based on the rules outlined. That will be combined with a rising league min and a rising ELC max salary puts even more of a financial squeeze on players like Dermott and Mikheyev. Dermott is 23. Mik is 25. These next 5 or 6 years or so should normally make up a large chunk of their prime earning potential. They are going to be underpaid no matter what they do, but assuming Mik and Dermott reach their potential, staying on the Leafs, if nothing else changes, means accepting not just being underpaid, but being dramatically underpaid.

 

[stickty111]

Former Marlies assistant Jack Han with another interesting piece this time on Dermott. Skipping the contract information on his piece, Han said he had the job of studying the Bruins top line during the 2007 playoffs, and here is what he said in the piece.

"In the spring of 2018 I was tasked with studying the Boston Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak in anticipation of the Leafs’ first-round playoff series. What we realized what that, at 5v5, Marchand was the catalyst of the line’s outstanding transitional play. From the left half-wall in his defensive zone, Marchand was consistently able to either skate or pass the puck into the middle of the ice for his linemates and create chances off the rush. For a team whose right side consisted of Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev and Roman Polak, this was a big problem.

The solution I proposed to the front office and the coaching staff was the following: promote Dermott to first-pair right-D alongside Morgan Reilly.
Dermott was and remains one of the league’s best defensemen at playing a tight gap and killing plays early, which would take away Marchand’s time and space when breaking the puck out.
Not only was Dermott more skilled and fleet of foot than Hainsey, Zaitsev or Polak, but he also had a X-factor working in his favor. To me, he was one of the only players on the Leafs’ roster who could get under Marchand’s skin throughout a long playoff series and beat the Bostonian pest at his own game. If Marchand ever were to lick his face, Dermie may well call his bluff and do something extraordinary to turn the tables.
The plan was not adopted. In the fateful Game Seven, Dermott scored a goal but played only 11:20 (lowest among Leafs Ds).
To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, in 2020 I am once again asking for support in playing Dermott on his off-side. Not only would this provide Toronto with a legit top-4 option on right D, but also unlock Dermott’s hitherto untapped offensive potential."

 

[deletethis]

Jack Han: I suggest using Travis Dermott on the right side
Kyle Dubas: I've acquired two veteran RHDs this summer

 

[kb]

That is going to be the biggest thing for the Leafs. A flat cap for a year (or perhaps two) with the belief that the cap is going to rise significantly after that might convince some players to take a short, cheap deal and wait for a big raise. Basically a flat cap for the next 3 or 4 years (which is pretty much a guarantee) followed by a slowly rising cap for the next couple years after that. It would be a shock if the cap managed to rise above 84M by 2024/25 based on the rules outlined. That will be combined with a rising league min and a rising ELC max salary puts even more of a financial squeeze on players like Dermott and Mikheyev. Dermott is 23. Mik is 25. These next 5 or 6 years or so should normally make up a large chunk of their prime earning potential. They are going to be underpaid no matter what they do, but assuming Mik and Dermott reach their potential, staying on the Leafs, if nothing else changes, means accepting not just being underpaid, but being dramatically underpaid.

You said it way better than I did.

I just don't think there is any reason for either to take less in this flat cap environment.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Jack Han: I suggest using Travis Dermott on the right side
Kyle Dubas: I've acquired two veteran RHDs this summer

He made that suggestion after the trade deadline when the right defense consisted of Zaitsev, Hainsey, and Polak. he didn't say Dubas should never look to upgrade that area

 

[Buds17]

Assuming no further additions to the blueline, I'd expect Rielly and Dermott to begin next season as a pairing. That obviously might be assuming quite a bit considering the start of next season is far off enough into the future.

 

[biotk]

You said it way better than I did.

I just don't think there is any reason for either to take less in this flat cap environment.

In the case of Dermott, he could decide that playing for the local team is worth enough to take less.

But if I was Dermott I would have a lot of questions. I assume that Dermott is confident enough in his on abilities to think that he should be a top-4, if not now, very soon. Dermott has Rielly and Muzzin ahead of him on the left side. Sandin and Lehtonen are also LHD. Before I would even want to consider taking less I would want to know what the team's plans are to deal with that. In the 24 games that Muzzin, Rielly and Dermott were all in the lineup this year Dermott averaged 14:45 a game with 37 seconds a game of PK time (and that includes a game when Muzzin was injured early in the 1st period). Keefe also played Marincin in the top-4 over Dermott for the first several games after Muzzin's late December injury which I would consider a real kick in the pants. I assume that is not the kind of regular deployment Dermott imagines himself doing for the next 4 seasons. So how does the team plan on remedying that situation, and if it involves moving Dermott to the right, then how can the team commit to that when they haven't seen how he will play there? If I was Sandin I would have these same questions too.

For myself playing on the hometown team would be a dream come true, as I am sure it would be for most people, but I would not pass on the opportunity to reach my potential elsewhere if I felt that my path was blocked. And I certainly wouldn't take less to stay in a place where my path was blocked.