AdamoR61
Registered User
- May 16, 2019
- 84
- 47
Much like the season of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Travis Dermott’s 2019-20 campaign has been full of ups and downs. On some nights he looks like a legitimate smooth-skating #3 or #4 defenceman whilst other nights you begin to question how much the flaws of Jake Gardiner had rubbed off on him. When evaluating a player, I like to break it down into 4 different categories: in zone offence, transition/rushes, in zone defence and special teams.
In Zone Offence
Dermott has never been known as the offensive defenceman type at the NHL that puts up a lot of points and generates a lot of shots. 4 goals, 7 assists (just 1 primary assist) for 11 points in 56 games isn’t something to really look into due to his increased defensive role following the injuries of Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Cody Ceci. When on the ice at even strength, Dermott’s corsi for % (CF%) was exactly 50.0% meaning his team had about the same amount of shot attempts as the other team. Relative to his teammates his corsi for (CF) is -6.15 which is not good. One thing to note however is how little Dermott shot the puck relative to his previous seasons. This season Dermott took just 1.08 shots/game compared to 1.50 and 1.41 in his previous seasons. A factor here could be the newer efficient offence that head coach Sheldon Keefe has implemented that involves more high danger chances and less low percentage shots from the point. Not much else to note about Dermott’s offensive game other than how genuinely excited this guy gets whenever he scores, just amazing to watch.
Overall grade: B-
In Zone Defence
Now this is where the season didn’t go as planned for Dermott as on some nights he was tasked with shutting down opponents best weapons. As mentioned previously, on some nights Dermott looks like a total stud and is finally beginning to show his top 4 upside while on other nights he’s just lighting money on fire for his next contract. Therefore one thing that was lacking from Dermott’s in zone defensive abilities is consistency. He has been very tenacious for the puck in the corners which is something that the Leafs could use more of but at the same time Dermott needs to learn when to pull back. On a few occasions this season Dermott got carried away in puck pursuit that led to either a blown coverage or a penalty taken. One game in particular for Dermott was the one on February 29th against the Canucks where he took a foolish interference penalty against Elias Pettersson that led to a scoring chance for one of the league's better power plays. In that game as well it seemed like Dermott was getting away with a lot of infractions when marking Pettersson, luckily for him the officials didn’t call them. According to the math done by Evolving Hockey, relative to his teammates this season Dermott’s xGA/60 is -0.32 which isn’t too great by any means. Although minor and not a good way but a tool to help evaluate his defence, Dermott gave the puck away 44 times compared to him taking the puck away a mere 23 times.
Overall grade: C
Transition/Rushes
This is where Travis Dermott thieves. Since going professional and working with Barbra Underhill (Maple Leafs power skating coach) Dermott went from being an average skater at best to one of the more elite skating defenseman in the league. This season Dermott was one of the Leafs key puck movers on the backend. Whether it being a stretch pass up to a streaking forward or gaining speed using his high power crossovers to skate the puck out, Dermott’s puck moving has Roman Josi type potential. As for defending the rush, this is where I would say Dermott is best when it comes to defending due his skating ability. He is actually 10th in the NHL in prevented zone entry denial percentage (minimum 100 attempts against) meaning he is among the best of defencemen in preventing opposing forwards from skating into the zone with the puck on their stick. Some notable names on this top 10 list include John Marino, Sami Vatanen and John Carlson. Dermott uses his quick feet and strong core to angle attackers towards the boards in the neutral zone then puts his stick out at the blueline to force the defender to either turnover or dump the puck in. Another thing that makes Dermott very good in transition is how he is able to prevent opposing east-west passes using his stick positioning.
Overall grade: A
Special Teams
The Leafs were 21st in the NHL for penalty kill% at a mere 77.7% while taking 3.08 penalties per game which has them sit 26th in the league. Dermott is a serviceable penalty killer despite his in zone defensive deficiencies, he isn’t afraid to sacrifice his body while he uses his tenacious attitude to press attackers when the puck is jammed in the corner or along the end boards. One thing that Dermott could work on however is his awareness and on a few instances this season, a blown coverage from Dermott or a back door pass to his man led to high danger scoring chances. As for the powerplay, Dermott wasn’t really used here and probably for a good reason.
Overall grade: B-
Overall Season Grade: B
Contract Projection and Compareables
Using Dom Luszczyszyn’s projected game score model, Dermott’s season game score value added (GSVA) had him at 0.78 over an 82 game season. “The model uses the last three years of data weighted by recency to project key box score stats and a few on-ice stats to create a projected Game Score that is then translated to a win value.” I use this stat because contracts are often based off of box score numbers with a smaller analytical focus. Dermott’s projected GSVA is comparable to the following.
*all are left-handed defencemen in and around the age of 23
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Travis Dermott Contract Projection: $3,150,000 x 3 years
In Zone Offence
Dermott has never been known as the offensive defenceman type at the NHL that puts up a lot of points and generates a lot of shots. 4 goals, 7 assists (just 1 primary assist) for 11 points in 56 games isn’t something to really look into due to his increased defensive role following the injuries of Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Cody Ceci. When on the ice at even strength, Dermott’s corsi for % (CF%) was exactly 50.0% meaning his team had about the same amount of shot attempts as the other team. Relative to his teammates his corsi for (CF) is -6.15 which is not good. One thing to note however is how little Dermott shot the puck relative to his previous seasons. This season Dermott took just 1.08 shots/game compared to 1.50 and 1.41 in his previous seasons. A factor here could be the newer efficient offence that head coach Sheldon Keefe has implemented that involves more high danger chances and less low percentage shots from the point. Not much else to note about Dermott’s offensive game other than how genuinely excited this guy gets whenever he scores, just amazing to watch.
Overall grade: B-
In Zone Defence
Now this is where the season didn’t go as planned for Dermott as on some nights he was tasked with shutting down opponents best weapons. As mentioned previously, on some nights Dermott looks like a total stud and is finally beginning to show his top 4 upside while on other nights he’s just lighting money on fire for his next contract. Therefore one thing that was lacking from Dermott’s in zone defensive abilities is consistency. He has been very tenacious for the puck in the corners which is something that the Leafs could use more of but at the same time Dermott needs to learn when to pull back. On a few occasions this season Dermott got carried away in puck pursuit that led to either a blown coverage or a penalty taken. One game in particular for Dermott was the one on February 29th against the Canucks where he took a foolish interference penalty against Elias Pettersson that led to a scoring chance for one of the league's better power plays. In that game as well it seemed like Dermott was getting away with a lot of infractions when marking Pettersson, luckily for him the officials didn’t call them. According to the math done by Evolving Hockey, relative to his teammates this season Dermott’s xGA/60 is -0.32 which isn’t too great by any means. Although minor and not a good way but a tool to help evaluate his defence, Dermott gave the puck away 44 times compared to him taking the puck away a mere 23 times.
Overall grade: C
Transition/Rushes
This is where Travis Dermott thieves. Since going professional and working with Barbra Underhill (Maple Leafs power skating coach) Dermott went from being an average skater at best to one of the more elite skating defenseman in the league. This season Dermott was one of the Leafs key puck movers on the backend. Whether it being a stretch pass up to a streaking forward or gaining speed using his high power crossovers to skate the puck out, Dermott’s puck moving has Roman Josi type potential. As for defending the rush, this is where I would say Dermott is best when it comes to defending due his skating ability. He is actually 10th in the NHL in prevented zone entry denial percentage (minimum 100 attempts against) meaning he is among the best of defencemen in preventing opposing forwards from skating into the zone with the puck on their stick. Some notable names on this top 10 list include John Marino, Sami Vatanen and John Carlson. Dermott uses his quick feet and strong core to angle attackers towards the boards in the neutral zone then puts his stick out at the blueline to force the defender to either turnover or dump the puck in. Another thing that makes Dermott very good in transition is how he is able to prevent opposing east-west passes using his stick positioning.
Overall grade: A
Special Teams
The Leafs were 21st in the NHL for penalty kill% at a mere 77.7% while taking 3.08 penalties per game which has them sit 26th in the league. Dermott is a serviceable penalty killer despite his in zone defensive deficiencies, he isn’t afraid to sacrifice his body while he uses his tenacious attitude to press attackers when the puck is jammed in the corner or along the end boards. One thing that Dermott could work on however is his awareness and on a few instances this season, a blown coverage from Dermott or a back door pass to his man led to high danger scoring chances. As for the powerplay, Dermott wasn’t really used here and probably for a good reason.
Overall grade: B-
Overall Season Grade: B
Contract Projection and Compareables
Using Dom Luszczyszyn’s projected game score model, Dermott’s season game score value added (GSVA) had him at 0.78 over an 82 game season. “The model uses the last three years of data weighted by recency to project key box score stats and a few on-ice stats to create a projected Game Score that is then translated to a win value.” I use this stat because contracts are often based off of box score numbers with a smaller analytical focus. Dermott’s projected GSVA is comparable to the following.
*all are left-handed defencemen in and around the age of 23
| Name | GSVA | Team | TOI/G | G | A | P | Contract (AAV) | Age |
| Dermott | 0.78 | TOR | 21.1 | 6.1 | 18.5 | 24.6 | $863,333 | 23 |
| Pettersson | 0.79 | PIT | 18.5 | 2.7 | 20.5 | 23.2 | $4,025,175 | 23 |
| Butcher | 0.77 | NJD | 17.9 | 5.0 | 25.3 | 30.3 | $3,500,000 | 25 |
| Kulak | 0.70 | MTL | 18.8 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 17.8 | $1,850,000 | 26 |
| Pelech | 0.88 | NYI | 21.1 | 4.5 | 18.5 | 22.9 | $1,500,000 | 25 |
Travis Dermott Contract Projection: $3,150,000 x 3 years
