Proposal: Trading Johnny Hockey

Anglesmith

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Sep 17, 2012
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If it works out that way, fine. But he should go to the higher bidder.

In the presented scenario, Johnny is forcing his way back home, which may be "accidentally" leaked so that other teams realize they won't be able to sign him.

But this is all so ridiculous.

In recent history, there has been exactly one player who was the top offensive player on his team and who worked his way back home. That was John Tavares, and there's a reason that it was such a huge deal what happened with him. In order for that to even be in the realm of possibility, the Islanders had to somehow avoid building a contender around him for a decade, the Islanders had to be unstable in terms of their arena situation, and Toronto, his desired destination, had to be in a perfect situation to add him. It was a perfect storm that led to a once-in-a-blue-moon scenario.

So in order to justify any statements about why this scenario is more likely than the norm, there would have to be some indication of Johnny not fitting the normal mould in this regard. What makes him different, to the extent that we think that he, in particular, is at risk of forcing his way back to the East Coast? Because the presented scenario sets him apart from other Flames player in terms of his likelihood of doing this, while Johnny has been nothing but a model Flame and a well-liked teammate in the locker room.

With no evidence to the contrary, it's more likely that the Flames pursue a trade than Gaudreau. And that only needs to happen if we can't get our act together on the ice.
 

Johnny Hoxville

The Return of a Legend
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@Anglesmith, this whole scenario is based on the premise that he’s told the Flames he wants to go back home. Debating if he would do so is another thing entirely.

Also I do think there’s been speculation of this to justify this thread and the conversation.
 

Anglesmith

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@Anglesmith, this whole scenario is based on the premise that he’s told the Flames he wants to go back home. Debating if he would do so is another thing entirely.

Also I do think there’s been speculation of this to justify this thread and the conversation.

But you said you think it's a likely scenario, so you (and InfinityIggy) already went to that part of the conversation.

There's been speculation about Johnny, yes, but no different than the speculation that's gone on with countless other superstars around the NHL. There's been speculation that Matthews really wants to play in Arizona, that Doughty really wants to play in Toronto, that various players like Ovechkin were going to bolt back to Russia, that Crosby was going to retire after the 2016-17 season, that McDavid was unhappy being drafted by Edmonton and would try to get out at first chance, etc.

There's no universally-recognized standard for what needs to be in place before someone starts speculating. You can speculate on literally any player in the NHL without any real evidence, so speculation isn't support for anything. Typically, speculation should require support, but just isn't how it works, sadly.
 

Rangediddy

The puck was in
Oct 28, 2011
3,710
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Not only does history show players rarely hold out to play for one desired team so early in their career, but Johnny is also such a competitive guy that he's only going to want to play for a team that can win. It would have to be a situation where any of those teams in the East would have to be quite a bit better than Calgary in 2-4 years and I don't see the teams trending that way.
 

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
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In the presented scenario, Johnny is forcing his way back home, which may be "accidentally" leaked so that other teams realize they won't be able to sign him.

But this is all so ridiculous.

In recent history, there has been exactly one player who was the top offensive player on his team and who worked his way back home. That was John Tavares, and there's a reason that it was such a huge deal what happened with him. In order for that to even be in the realm of possibility, the Islanders had to somehow avoid building a contender around him for a decade, the Islanders had to be unstable in terms of their arena situation, and Toronto, his desired destination, had to be in a perfect situation to add him. It was a perfect storm that led to a once-in-a-blue-moon scenario.

So in order to justify any statements about why this scenario is more likely than the norm, there would have to be some indication of Johnny not fitting the normal mould in this regard. What makes him different, to the extent that we think that he, in particular, is at risk of forcing his way back to the East Coast? Because the presented scenario sets him apart from other Flames player in terms of his likelihood of doing this, while Johnny has been nothing but a model Flame and a well-liked teammate in the locker room.

With no evidence to the contrary, it's more likely that the Flames pursue a trade than Gaudreau. And that only needs to happen if we can't get our act together on the ice.
In slightly less recent history it also happened with Suter and Parise, and they were coming from much better circumstances than Tavares. While we certainly shouldn't run around clenching our buttholes at the fear of a star player leaving for his home area, it's also not a completely outrageous scenario.
 

Flames Fanatic

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Aug 14, 2008
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In slightly less recent history it also happened with Suter and Parise, and they were coming from much better circumstances than Tavares. While we certainly shouldn't run around clenching our buttholes at the fear of a star player leaving for his home area, it's also not a completely outrageous scenario.

While I don't disagree with the point, realistically we have three examples of stars who went home, versus how many that stayed with their team? It's still pretty lopsided.
 

Anglesmith

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In slightly less recent history it also happened with Suter and Parise, and they were coming from much better circumstances than Tavares (particularly Suter).
Suter was a casualty of the Weber offer sheet, though. Neither Parise nor Suter were the top players at their position on the teams they left, and that affects the contract offers they would've been given by their original teams. That's why those cases aren't the same.

Gaudreau will likely still be the Flames' top offensive weapon when it comes time to talk about an extension. If he isn't (if he gets passed on the depth chart somehow) that would be extremely surprising, but that would be the situation that would possibly entice the Flames to think about a trade. That was the situation that arose in Tampa that led to Stamkos nearly leaving. Tampa saw other players emerge and appear ready to replace him, which made it hard to justify paying him twice as much as them. As long as Gaudreau is the Flames' primary offensive weapon in three years' time, they'll be looking to pay him well to keep him in Calgary, and there won't be any reason for him to leave.
 

Mobiandi

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Jan 17, 2015
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If the Flames don't get to the conference final within the next 3 years, I think Gaudreau is as good as gone. The Flyers, Devils, Bruins are on track to be very good teams by then so I doubt he would stick around for another cagey contract negotiation on a bubble team
 

Anglesmith

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If the Flames don't get to the conference final within the next 3 years, I think Gaudreau is as good as gone. The Flyers, Devils, Bruins are on track to be very good teams by then so I doubt he would stick around for another cagey contract negotiation on a bubble team
I think that's a bit of an extreme take. It would depend on the manner in which they lost out. If it was a situation like what Washington was and the Flames were a perennial powerhouse who just kept getting narrowly edged in the divisional playoffs, he'd probably want to stay and get over the hump. If they never had a serious contender in that time, I think the team would be initiating a shake-up, whether Johnny would like it or not.
 

Mobiandi

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Jan 17, 2015
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I think that's a bit of an extreme take. It would depend on the manner in which they lost out. If it was a situation like what Washington was and the Flames were a perennial powerhouse who just kept getting narrowly edged in the divisional playoffs, he'd probably want to stay and get over the hump. If they never had a serious contender in that time, I think the team would be initiating a shake-up, whether Johnny would like it or not.
Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Despite looking like a cut above all of the other Pacific teams, James Neal didn't stick around on Vegas because he wasn't getting the term and/or money he wanted. Stastny jumped ship from a Jets team that has a wide open cup window to a better market in Vegas.

Coming off a cup win, John Carlson was talking about how he would be exploring other options in FA if he offer from the Caps wasn't to his liking.

I don't think it's an extreme take at all. In 4 years time, Gaudreau and his agent will have most of the leverage in negotiations and will probably make full use of it just like Treliving did. He'll be looking to cash in on his next contract so the Flames are on the clock to ensure they are successful in the next few seasons and also have to make sure they don't lowball him next time around. Obviously, Gaudreau is also partly responsible for the Flames' success, but he's done his job extremely well so far as Flame so there's no reason to believe that he won't deliver on his end.
 

Anglesmith

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Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Despite looking like a cut above all of the other Pacific teams, James Neal didn't stick around on Vegas because he wasn't getting the term and/or money he wanted. Stastny jumped ship from a Jets team that has a wide open cup window to a better market in Vegas.

Coming off a cup win, John Carlson was talking about how he would be exploring other options in FA if he offer from the Caps wasn't to his liking.

Gaudreau wil be looking to cash in on his next contract. The Flames are on the clock to ensure they are successful in the next few seasons and also have to make sure they don't lowball him. Obviously, Gaudreau is also partly responsible for the Flames' success, but he's done his job extremely well so far as Flame so there's no reason to believe that he won't deliver on his end.

In 4 years time, Gaudreau and his agent will have most of the leverage in negotiations and will probably make full use of it just like Treliving did.
That's the thing, though. The biggest factor that (outside of Tavares) leads to stars leaving teams is them not being the primary options, and thus being offered less than top dollar by their teams who are more interested in keeping other guys in the fold. Is that a realistic possibility for Gaudreau? I think it really depends on Gaudreau vs. Tkachuk and how the two develop relative to one another in the next three years.

Parise wouldn't have been offered top dollar because of Kovalchuk. Suter because of Weber. Neal because of all of the young players who are better than him on the Knights. Stamkos (almost) because of the triplets (who regressed a bit and led to the contract). A situation like that would be required for Gaudreau to leave, in my opinion. If not, there will be nothing stopping the Flames from offering him >$9M.
 

JPeeper

Hail Satan!
Jan 4, 2015
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I don't understand this notion of "he wants to go back home". Who have we seen actually go back home because they're home sick? Tavares is the only big name guy I can think of that went home and that just happened. By the time his contract is done/UFA he'll be 29, you think he'll still be home sick? Not saying he won't miss home, nor am I saying he won't wife up some Calgarian girl and stay here (pls if anyone has a hot sister, set Johnny up with them), I just don't get this notion based off the long history I have seen of UFA's going home. Most/if not all go for the big money/Cup opportunity.

Also, I don't agree that this is a fun thread. ;)
 

Johnny Hoxville

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Jul 15, 2006
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But you said you think it's a likely scenario, so you (and InfinityIggy) already went to that part of the conversation.

There's been speculation about Johnny, yes, but no different than the speculation that's gone on with countless other superstars around the NHL. There's been speculation that Matthews really wants to play in Arizona, that Doughty really wants to play in Toronto, that various players like Ovechkin were going to bolt back to Russia, that Crosby was going to retire after the 2016-17 season, that McDavid was unhappy being drafted by Edmonton and would try to get out at first chance, etc.

There's no universally-recognized standard for what needs to be in place before someone starts speculating. You can speculate on literally any player in the NHL without any real evidence, so speculation isn't support for anything. Typically, speculation should require support, but just isn't how it works, sadly.

Like I don’t know what else to tell you, there’s been smoke there. There’s not smoke with every player in the NHL. You’ve stated your case, it doesn’t change the fact that he might want to go home based on comments we’ve heard.
 

Anglesmith

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Like I don’t know what else to tell you, there’s been smoke there. There’s not smoke with every player in the NHL. You’ve stated your case, it doesn’t change the fact that he might want to go home based on comments we’ve heard.

There have been posters, some with trollish intent, who have brought up a radio interview and tried to fuel baseless speculation. That isn't what is referred to as smoke, except for by the extremely gullible, or by those trying to create controversy. Smoke would be someone with insider knowledge of Gaudreau's intent suggesting that he wants out, or any other real-life indicators based on things happening between the player and the team. No such thing has happened with Gaudreau. Literally all of the "smoke" has been people on the internet with no connection to Gaudreau or the Flames speculating on it based 100% on Gaudreau's answer to a "clown question" on a Philly radio station. Allowing anonymous keyboard warriors to have this much influence over you is silly, IMO.

If Brayden Point was on the Fan 960, I would hope that he wouldn't be asked if he'd be happy playing in Calgary one day, but if he was, I'm 100% sure he'd say yes. And if we then went onto the main board and made a big deal about it, I'd be very disappointed in our fanbase.
I just want to point out that 'how often' players 'go home' isn't relevant because Gaudreau is an individual. All that is relevant is if he wants to be here or not, that's really it.
I agree. This is a point I make often. However, in order to make a claim that Gaudreau is more likely than other players, there has to be support for that. If a certain situation overwhelmingly leads to a certain outcome, there is typically a reason for that. In this case, players are comfortable with their team, their teammates, don't want to mar their reputation by leaving, want to secure their future financially a year earlier, can't find a place more likely to win than their current team, and can be financially accommodated on their current team easier than adding a big salary outright to another fully-formed team.

You're right. The fact that these factors exist and influence the decision of almost all players in the league in Gaudreau's situation does not necessarily mean that it will influence Gaudreau the same way. But that's also the case with anyone. Why are we isolating Gaudreau for this analysis? There's a claim being made there that Gaudreau is different, and I don't believe it's supported.
 

Tkachuky

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Couple of notes:

Any trade scenario should be looked at as if traded in the next year or so. Hard to trade a Gaudreau 3 years from now for a ex: Patrick from 3 years from now.... too much could happen.

Hall would make most sense... but I would need to see another season of Hall tbh... (even though I’ve thought he was a good player even way back on the shitty oilers)
 

Johnny Hoxville

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So @Anglesmith, in the event he did express to the Flames he wants to move on, what are your thoughts? Because that’s pretty much the discussion I was hoping we could have.

I’ll look forward to the Tkachuk thread when I see it.
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
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So @Anglesmith, in the event he did express to the Flames he wants to move on, what are your thoughts? Because that’s pretty much the discussion I was hoping we could have.

I’ll look forward to the Tkachuk thread when I see it.

I think the medium is the message, Hox. If you're making a thread about this, you're saying it's more than just a random musing that belongs in the Armchair GM Thread. Your comments and II's comments confirm that. So the motive behind this discussion is the big elephant in the room.

With regards to what we would want in a trade for Gaudreau, I think you've made it very difficult to discuss by adding the extra context. Talking about what we would need back right now if we traded Gaudreau is one thing, but even after this season we have no idea the direction the team will be heading. Is it really a discussion that is possible to have before this season begins? If we are awful this year, it's going to be a very different answer than if we have a good run.

Basically, Hox, this thread is your living room, you haven't got the furniture yet, you want to discuss the shade of paint that you should use to match both the furniture and the fully-grown African elephant that is standing in the centre of the room. But the fact that the elephant is there? Just take it as it is.
 

Johnny Hoxville

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I think the medium is the message, Hox. If you're making a thread about this, you're saying it's more than just a random musing that belongs in the Armchair GM Thread. Your comments and II's comments confirm that. So the motive behind this discussion is the big elephant in the room.

With regards to what we would want in a trade for Gaudreau, I think you've made it very difficult to discuss by adding the extra context. Talking about what we would need back right now if we traded Gaudreau is one thing, but even after this season we have no idea the direction the team will be heading. Is it really a discussion that is possible to have before this season begins? If we are awful this year, it's going to be a very different answer than if we have a good run.

Basically, Hox, this thread is your living room, you haven't got the furniture yet, you want to discuss the shade of paint that you should use to match both the furniture and the fully-grown African elephant that is standing in the centre of the room. But the fact that the elephant is there? Just take it as it is.

Ahh got it, so because you don’t think there’s any validity to this your essential goal is to derail the thread in a passive aggressive manor simply because you don’t think this is thread worthy.

The fact is Gaudreau has had more discussion around him wanting to play back home than anyone else on the Flames. And it just isn’t because of that radio interview that was done in Philly. This goes all the way back to him playing for BC and being an American star playing on U.S. soil near his home. It’s a legitimate outcome that may come to fruition, being that its summer and he’s essentially the cornerstone of this franchise, I wanted to discuss what it would look like if the Flames were faced with dealing him at some point.

But because you don’t think there’s any validity to that thought, that’s your prerogative and it isn’t necessarily everyone else’s. Gaudreau isn’t every other player in the NHL and it’s not just a random thought. He’s one of the most popular U.S. born hockey players on the planet, he had a cult like following at BC and it’s entirely possible that he would want to pull a Tavares and go back home. I really don’t see any issue with discussing that either. The worst thing in the world would be if the Flames got caught in the situation that happened to the Isles.
 

DFF

Registered User
Feb 28, 2002
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Who generates the offense if they trade Johnny? Sam Bennett?

They need to get back a top forward if they trade him, not a bunch of magic beans.

Unless the magic bean is Alexis Lafreniere of course.
 

Anglesmith

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Ahh got it, so because you don’t think there’s any validity to this your essential goal is to derail the thread in a passive aggressive manor simply because you don’t think this is thread worthy.

The fact is Gaudreau has had more discussion around him wanting to play back home than anyone else on the Flames. And it just isn’t because of that radio interview that was done in Philly. This goes all the way back to him playing for BC and being an American star playing on U.S. soil near his home. It’s a legitimate outcome that may come to fruition, being that its summer and he’s essentially the cornerstone of this franchise, I wanted to discuss what it would look like if the Flames were faced with dealing him at some point.

But because you don’t think there’s any validity to that thought, that’s your prerogative and it isn’t necessarily everyone else’s. Gaudreau isn’t every other player in the NHL and it’s not just a random thought. He’s one of the most popular U.S. born hockey players on the planet, he had a cult like following at BC and it’s entirely possible that he would want to pull a Tavares and go back home. I really don’t see any issue with discussing that either. The worst thing in the world would be if the Flames got caught in the situation that happened to the Isles.

Absolutely not. For one, I'm not being passive at all. Secondly, I am not trying to derail this thread, as I'm discussing the big topic in the thread. You brought up two topics in the OP: one is the possibility of Gaudreau ever wanting to play back home, and the other is what we will want for him if that happens. The first absolutely warrants discussion if there are still people who think that this is a real thing. The second one is, in my opinion, impossible to talk about at this point anyway, and isn't very interesting because of it. So the real meat of the conversation is about the legend of Gaudreau plotting his escape. It's an elephant in the room that obviously anyone who reads the OP is going to be drawn to. I don't see any purpose in bringing this topic up if it isn't worth discussing. I'm actually curious why you don't want to talk about it if you think there's legitimate support for the theory.

But now we're talking about that real topic at last.

For support of the theory, you're bringing up that Gaudreau gained a big following playing college hockey, and is a big hockey star in the US, which implies that he will want to leave his current team and home in Calgary. I don't think there's anything that really connects those factors to players leaving their teams. Have we seen that lead to players leaving Canadian teams before? Because we've seen a lot of players stay in Canada in spite of these factors. The other thing to think about in this regard is that Gaudreau is joined on the Flames by a few other key, young US players in Hanifin and Tkachuk, all of whom purportedly have a good relationship and enjoy each other's company.

Gaudreau gets to go home and play hockey in his homeland every summer, and gets to swing by every year with the Flames. Meanwhile, he's making relationships and building a life in Calgary. If the Flames develop into a contender and Gaudreau remains as a leader on the team, it would be basically unheard of for him to want to move for non-hockey reasons.
 

Tofveve

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Mar 10, 2013
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The deal Gaudreau is a steal for the Flames. I know, I know, I know it was market value at the time. But anyway, let's see how he does for the next couple of seasons. I kind of think he's at about as good as he'll be, but depending on the talent he plays with, his totals and performance may go up some still. So basically, I think it's all about how the team performs and how happy he is here. I do think the value contract he signed might start to weigh on him, but, hopefully that never becomes a distraction and he embraces his star stature and the city more with each passing day. So yeah, I'm not thinking of trading him now or in the near future. Maybe 3 seasons from now I'd revisit it. Heck, maybe a little sooner, but I want to ride this excitement watching him be who is for as long as possible still.
 
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