Trades and Free Agent Talk -- The calm before the storm?

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

To me this deadline is pretty simple: Move Ceci for a mid-round pick. Promote Liljegren.

Acquire a vet backup goaltender for a late round pick (Howard, Anderson, or other)

Add somebody better than Marincin if possible.

That's all I really want.

Outside of something crazy that would never happen like Muzzin+Barrie to Winnipeg and then us going after a Doughty quality player using that return I really don't see the need to give up the big trade chips on our roster for anything out there right now.

 

[Stephen]

I'm not saying the deal is the same for each player however those are the players dubas should be looking at. Dumba would most likely cost is kappy, lilly and a pic. Manson could probably be had for kappy and Hamonic would probably be a bigger deal involving players from both teams. Point is theres options available for dubas to improve the team now and in the future.

We have to be pretty careful about Josh Manson. The guy is putting up Erik Gudbranson numbers, is a year older and makes more money. That’s waiver wire quality right there and people are jumping to give up Kapanen.

The Dumba proposal also looks extremely expensive and Hamonic sounds like he’s been awful this year.

 

[Stephen]

I dont think aj can get us Manson, itll cost us at least kappy

You have to seriously pump the brakes on the Josh Manson hype. He hasn’t done anything worth that price in two years. You’re probably better off claiming Luke Schenn off waivers than doing damage to your organization by paying a premium on a guy you remember being good from 2017-18.

 

[Stephen]

I dont think aj can get us Manson, itll cost us at least kappy

You have to seriously pump the brakes on the Josh Manson hype. He hasn’t done anything worth that price in two years. You’re probably better off claiming Luke Schenn off waivers than doing damage to your organization by paying a premium on a guy you remember being good from 2017-18.

 

[Shak19]

kerfoot + ceci + bracco + lindgren
for
subban (NJ retains half the cap), domingue

 

[Duffman955]

You have to seriously pump the brakes on the Josh Manson hype. He hasn’t done anything worth that price in two years. You’re probably better off claiming Luke Schenn off waivers than doing damage to your organization by paying a premium on a guy you remember being good from 2017-18.

What numbers are you looking at? Points?

He gets the top 90th percentile for QOC and DZ starts and plays 20+ mins a night. That's exactly what we need.

Hes a defenseman stuck on a horrible team, playing the hardest minutes. Of course his possession numbers are bad. Any players stats would look like that on the ducks, playing the minutes he does.

 

[Stephen]

What numbers are you looking at? Points?

He gets the top 90th percentile for QOC and DZ starts and plays 20+ mins a night. That's exactly what we need.

Hes a defenseman stuck on a horrible team, playing the hardest minutes. Of course his possession numbers are bad. Any players stats would look like that on the ducks, playing the minutes he does.

Why aren’t they better with such a gem?

 

[Duffman955]

Why aren’t they better with such a gem?

I have no idea what you are arguing. You want him to score more?

 

[Stephen]

I have no idea what you are arguing. You want him to score more?

Manson is a $4 million + Roman Polak. Leafs fans are attracted to this player type because he had a break out offensive season two years ago which he never followed up on. So you're basically getting a black hole defenseman who provides zero offense while being heavily utilized on a very poor team. Not really seeing much appeal here.

 

[Duffman955]

Manson is a $4 million + Roman Polak. Leafs fans are attracted to this player type because he had a break out offensive season two years ago which he never followed up on. So you're basically getting a black hole defenseman who provides zero offense while being heavily utilized on a very poor team. Not really seeing much appeal here.

We have 0 need for offense from the backend, while we have Rielly, Barrie and Sandin on the team. If you haven't noticed, ws aren't losing games because of lack of offense or PP ability.

We need a defenseman to face top lines and play PK and in their own zone.

A defenseman playing physical and having low point totals doesn't make him "Polak". Look at players like Pesce, Slavin etc. You clearly haven't seen Manson play and have a low understanding of the game so I'm going to end the conversation here.

 

[Advanced stats]

When is Dumba for Kapanen happening?

 

[biotk]

Manson is a $4 million + Roman Polak. Leafs fans are attracted to this player type because he had a break out offensive season two years ago which he never followed up on. So you're basically getting a black hole defenseman who provides zero offense while being heavily utilized on a very poor team. Not really seeing much appeal here.

Odd. I wanted him before his breakout offensive season two years ago. Like the season before when the Ducks made it the conference finals and he was great defensively and f***ing terrifying with his hits (and incidentally he signed his contract before his breakout offensive season as well). If it was possible for the Leafs to have a D with Muzzin, Manson and Dillon - one on each pairing it would be amazing.

 

[Big Muddy]

When is Dumba for Kapanen happening?

I thought we were getting Parayko or Roman Josi?

 

[43Kadri43]

When is Dumba for Kapanen happening?

Hopefully never

 

[1specter]

Odd. I wanted him before his breakout offensive season two years ago. Like the season before when the Ducks made it the conference finals and he was great defensively and ****ing terrifying with his hits (and incidentally he signed his contract before his breakout offensive season as well). If it was possible for the Leafs to have a D with Muzzin, Manson and Dillon - one on each pairing it would be amazing.

NVM disregard

 

[Fogelhund]

Manson is a $4 million + Roman Polak. Leafs fans are attracted to this player type because he had a break out offensive season two years ago which he never followed up on. So you're basically getting a black hole defenseman who provides zero offense while being heavily utilized on a very poor team. Not really seeing much appeal here.

Nah... don't care about his offensive season, nor the lack of offense since. Never did. He's a quality guy, playing on a terrible team. What he provides, is exactly what we lack, which is pretty obvious watching him.

I mean McDavid must suck too right? His team has never done much, how can he possibly be a good player?

 

[ManosArriba]

kerfoot + ceci + bracco + lindgren
for
subban (NJ retains half the cap), domingue

I wouldn't take Subban for free, he is terrible now and not the type of Dman the Leafs need. Im also not sure Domingue is any better than Hutchinson.

 

[Kurtz]

Yea... A top 9 forward is much more impactful than a backup goaltender on a nightly basis. We need one but at the cost of a 3rd-4th round pick tops you can get a decent one.

Do you have any numbers to support this, because it just doesn't sound true. A backup nowadays should be starting 25 games for you. The difference between having an elite backup and a Hutchinson has got to be worth several wins over those 25 games. That's more than the value that a good 3rd line winger will give you over a an average winger. Ie do we really get noticeably worse if we trade Mango or Kerfoot and draw in Moore? On the other hand, do we get notably better in those 10 remaining games or so that an elite backup would get over Hutch? There might be a 2-3 point difference between those goalies in those 10 games, and as of now a playoff spot looks like it might come down to that margin.

As a bonus, if we do get in the playoffs and Andy goes down...it's over for us, we might as well not play the rest of the series. With Grigs, there's at least a chance that he gets hot and steals games - we've seen this first hand.

Plus this guy does seem to have starter upside as a nice potential bonus to the deal. 23 is still prospect age. We're not buying a career backup.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Do you have any numbers to support this, because it just doesn't sound true. A backup nowadays should be starting 25 games for you. The difference between having an elite backup and a Hutchinson has got to be worth several wins over those 25 games. That's more than the value that a good 3rd line winger will give you over a an average winger. Ie do we really get noticeably worse if we trade Mango or Kerfoot and draw in Moore? On the other hand, do we get notably better in those 10 remaining games or so that an elite backup would get over Hutch? There might be a 2-3 point difference between those goalies in those 10 games, and as of now a playoff spot looks like it might come down to that margin.

As a bonus, if we do get in the playoffs and Andy goes down...it's over for us, we might as well not play the rest of the series. With Grigs, there's at least a chance that he gets hot and steals games - we've seen this first hand.

Plus this guy does seem to have starter upside as a nice potential bonus to the deal. 23 is still prospect age. We're not buying a career backup.

My point was that I would rather pay a low price for a good backup and keep my good forward over giving up Johnsson or somebody for an "elite" backup. I agree we need an upgrade over Hutch.

League average SV% this year is .904. Most teams in the top 5-10 in SV% have a backup that has around a .910-.915 SV%.

If we use Hutch's workload this year (on pace to play 20 games), the difference between a .904 and a .914 SV% over that workload is just 4 goals. If you take a goalie with a higher workload like a Jack Campbell who is on pace to play 30 games, the difference between a .904 SV% and a .914 SV% is just 8 goals over those 30 games. Randomly pick which games you want to take those from and at most you get a few more points, maybe.

The downgrade from Johnsson or Kerfoot to Moore is not worth an 8 goal spread from my backup goalie over the course of a full season. I am sure Johnsson or Kerfoot would influence more than that spread on offense pretty easily with Johnsson averaging 44 points per 82 games vs. Moores 23 points per 82 games.

Give up a mid-late round pick, get somebody decent, and keep all your firepower up front.

With Georgiev MAYBE you get a future starter, but it won't be this year or next and we really can't afford to give up good assets to wait and see if he can become that guy.

 

[stewpac]

Manson is a $4 million + Roman Polak. Leafs fans are attracted to this player type because he had a break out offensive season two years ago which he never followed up on. So you're basically getting a black hole defenseman who provides zero offense while being heavily utilized on a very poor team. Not really seeing much appeal here.

That is not why I want him at all, his offense to me isn't important. We need someone who can play along side with Reilly, helping him be the Norris candidate that he's capable of. If we go out and get another offensive minded dman than we're no better. Manson is the exact type of guy we need and it has nothing to do with looking at stats.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

My point was that I would rather pay a low price for a good backup and keep my good forward over giving up Johnsson or somebody for an "elite" backup. I agree we need an upgrade over Hutch.

League average SV% this year is .904. Most teams in the top 5-10 in SV% have a backup that has around a .910-.915 SV%.

If we use Hutch's workload this year (on pace to play 20 games), the difference between a .904 and a .914 SV% over that workload is just 4 goals. If you take a goalie with a higher workload like a Jack Campbell who is on pace to play 30 games, the difference between a .904 SV% and a .914 SV% is just 8 goals over those 30 games. Randomly pick which games you want to take those from and at most you get a few more points, maybe.

The downgrade from Johnsson or Kerfoot to Moore is not worth an 8 goal spread from my backup goalie over the course of a full season. I am sure Johnsson or Kerfoot would influence more than that spread on offense pretty easily with Johnsson averaging 44 points per 82 games vs. Moores 23 points per 82 games.

Give up a mid-late round pick, get somebody decent, and keep all your firepower up front.

With Georgiev MAYBE you get a future starter, but it won't be this year or next and we really can't afford to give up good assets to wait and see if he can become that guy.

Georgiev is the only goalie that has been tossed around worth more than a 3rd round pick, and that's only because he's young with a bit of upside. If we wanted Jack Campbell, for example, the most LA could get is a 3rd or Bracco one-for-one (plus Hutch as a toss-in).

Georgiev should not get more than Bracco, Hutch and a 2nd. Personally, I think that is even a bit pricey, but that is the absolute top end of his justifiable range. Johnsson/Kerfoot may be equivalent value, but we are also a competitive team who likely values Johnsson/Kerfoot a lot more than Bracco and a 2nd right now. Guys like Kapanen are off the table unless they are willing to add quality secondary pieces to that offer, and anyone who is reporting that Kapanen + is on the table for Georgiev needs to validate their sources, because that would be awful for the Leafs.

 

[ACC1224]

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Muzzin trade.
Wouldn't be surprised if we see something happen this week.

 

[ToneDog]

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Muzzin trade.
Wouldn't be surprised if we see something happen this week.

Dillon and one of Manson, Dumba or Brodin would ignite Leaf nation.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Dillon and one of Manson, Dumba or Brodin would ignite Leaf nation.

On another site they were saying Brodie has a 8-team No-trade list and the Leafs are on it - added after Kadr nixed the deal

 

[ACC1224]

Dillon and one of Manson, Dumba or Brodin would ignite Leaf nation.

No doubt.
As exciting as a trade would be, the thought of Dubas handling it is a little unnerving.