Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VII

[BankStreetParade]

Yashin went for 2OA and Chara. At the time Chara was a throw in, clunky pylon of a dman. I don't think the deal would need to be a large package if it included 2OA or 3OA. We got a package for EK because there wasn't any high end talent in the offer (apparently).

A trade from almost 20 years ago, before the salary cap era existed, is not the best example to use. But even still would you say Islanders fans are happy with the results of the trade?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He absolutely wouldn't come here unless we had a different owner. He gets to call the shots in Buffalo

Just what Eichel wants... to go to a team that can only spend 2/3's of what most teams do and has been in the basement for 3 years running.

I'd be shocked if he were willing to go to Ottawa even if they do appear to be trending in the right direction if all ownership factors are ignored.

 

[Tuna99]

Just what Eichel wants... to go to a team that can only spend 2/3's of what most teams do and has been in the basement for 3 years running.

I'd be shocked if he were willing to go to Ottawa.

I’d take Mike Hoffman and Chris Wideman and their Uber driver before Eichel.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I’d take Mike Hoffman and Chris Wideman and their Uber driver before Eichel.

Lol. I'm all for bringing back the Hoff. He is a free agent after all!

I'll file the Eichel discussion under the never going to happen category and can probably be laid to rest.

 

[Sweatred]

A trade from almost 20 years ago, before the salary cap era existed, is not the best example to use. But even still would you say Islanders fans are happy with the results of the trade?

Do you have any better examples of a 1-2OA pick being traded from a year with a player close to Spezza ? I think it is a better example than a mid first round pick or prospect like Norris.

 

[TheNewEra]

Do you have any better examples of a 1-2OA pick being traded from a year with a player close to Spezza ? I think it is a better example than a mid first round pick or prospect like Norris.

there probably isnt a better example but at the same time you have gms that are more shy at making big trades

its why everyone was so excited when cbj went all in. I was really hoping it would work because now teams will have a justification to ignore big trades

 

[TheNewEra]

After salary bonuses are paid out

stepan (2 mil in actual salary)
raanta (2 mil in actual salary)
for
anisimov (1.5 mil in actual salary)
reilly (1.5 mil in actual salary)
nilsson (2.4 mil in actual salary)

Ottawa saves 1.4 million in salary. Arizona saves 2.1 million in cap hit. Based off last season relative skill being traded is equal. No long term contract traded either. Thoughts?

 

[Sweatred]

there probably isnt a better example but at the same time you have gms that are more shy at making big trades

its why everyone was so excited when cbj went all in. I was really hoping it would work because now teams will have a justification to ignore big trades

I think the real reason you don’t see many trades like the Yashin deal is most teams open the vault and extend those types of players. There has to be a disgruntled element to move teams best player, especially when they are young. Buffalo is a candidate, not for salary reasons but for what ever combo of losing and “Buffalo” brings. Ottawa probably isn’t the answer but they did trade Kane.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

After salary bonuses are paid out

stepan (2 mil in actual salary)
raanta (2 mil in actual salary)
for
anisimov (1.5 mil in actual salary)
reilly (1.5 mil in actual salary)
nilsson (2.4 mil in actual salary)

Ottawa saves 1.4 million in salary. Arizona saves 2.1 million in cap hit. Based off last season relative skill being traded is equal. No long term contract traded either. Thoughts?

I don't think they would do that. Huge downgrade for them collectively to only save 2.1 million in cap.

I think they could get rid of Raanta in a better deal. He is a good goalie, but his value is going to be depressed due to injury troubles.

I could see something like Stepan (post bonus) to Ottawa for a late pick. Similar to the Namestnikov trade. I would prefer if we got an asset to take him, but I think both sides would realize that Ottawa would value Stepan highly at 2M in salary. He's not the player he was when the Coyotes acquired him, but he's still a middle 6 C. I can't see there being a big market for him in a trade because of his cap hit relative to his production.

There won't be a market for Nilsson. The extension was fine in the context of the Senators needs, but 2.6 million is going to be very rich for a backup goalie coming off of concussions. Assuming Nilsson is healthy, I think we are more likely to include Hogberg in a deal to get another goalie. I'd be surprised if Hogberg is our goalie of the future, and he would be a more flexible trade chip because his cap hit can be buried.

I'd almost be surprised if we don't try to capitalize on the buyers market in net next season to find an upgrade on the Hogberg/Nilsson tandem. I don't think Raanta is that guy, but if he comes cheap enough, he's not a bad target. I just don't think we get him for what you outlined above.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think the real reason you don’t see many trades like the Yashin deal is most teams open the vault and extend those types of players. There has to be a disgruntled element to move teams best player, especially when they are young. Buffalo is a candidate, not for salary reasons but for what ever combo of losing and “Buffalo” brings. Ottawa probably isn’t the answer but they did trade Kane.

Yashin is ancient history at this point so it is difficult to learn anything from that trade that we can apply to a hypothetical trade that happens this offseason.

Players with Eichel's ability are almost never traded at his age. Hall (1st trade) and Seguin are the two that have happened in the last decade. Neither at the time of the trade were as good as Eichel is now. Both had supposed issues, where as Eichel just seems to be upset with losing. There aren't really any indications that he's involved in any drama otherwise.

Boston also made the trade partially trying to 'win now'. They got a star 1st liner who was cost controlled for a few more seasons. Buffalo isn't in that same situation.

Usually when young guys are traded, it's a 1 for 1 type of trade where teams are placing a heavy emphasis on team need, Hall for Larsson, Jones for Johansen, Drouin for Sergachev, etc. Hall for Larson was positional/cap need for EDM, and Jones for Johansen was positional for both teams. Buffalo does not have that same motivation since moving Eichel would destroy them down the middle.

My off the wall idea in the main boad thread, which is sure to get me in trouble, would be if Toronto loses again in the first round to Boston (even if they don't play Boston, they'll find a way to lose to them), Matthews for Eichel. This is assuming there are actual issues with Eichel and Buffalo. A lot of people are going to say Matthews is better, which might be the case, but with the cap possibly being stuck at 81.5M going forward, that kind of move would help the Leafs manage the situation better. Not because they clear a bit over 1 million per season, but because Eichel is cost controlled for longer than Matthews. He has an extra two years of term. Judging by how aggressive Matthews was in the original negotiation, he is going to be looking for a huge UFA contract 4 seasons from now.

The biggest benefit of the swap is that both sides help each other out, because the trade would void Matthews' and Eichel's future NMCs. Both sides would obviously hope to keep their respective players beyond their current contracts, but that would give them even more flexibility going forward if that turns out to not be possible.

 

[GCK]

After salary bonuses are paid out

stepan (2 mil in actual salary)
raanta (2 mil in actual salary)
for
anisimov (1.5 mil in actual salary)
reilly (1.5 mil in actual salary)
nilsson (2.4 mil in actual salary)

Ottawa saves 1.4 million in salary. Arizona saves 2.1 million in cap hit. Based off last season relative skill being traded is equal. No long term contract traded either. Thoughts?

My immediate thought is that we would be making a money saving trade with freaking Arizona. Please make this nightmare end, time to sell, if no one wants to pony up to buy the team and keep them in Ottawa then just sell to a Houston interest.

 

[Sweatred]

Yashin is ancient history at this point so it is difficult to learn anything from that trade that we can apply to a hypothetical trade that happens this offseason.

Players with Eichel's ability are almost never traded at his age. Hall (1st trade) and Seguin are the two that have happened in the last decade. Neither at the time of the trade were as good as Eichel is now. Both had supposed issues, where as Eichel just seems to be upset with losing. There aren't really any indications that he's involved in any drama otherwise.

Boston also made the trade partially trying to 'win now'. They got a star 1st liner who was cost controlled for a few more seasons. Buffalo isn't in that same situation.

Usually when young guys are traded, it's a 1 for 1 type of trade where teams are placing a heavy emphasis on team need, Hall for Larsson, Jones for Johansen, Drouin for Sergachev, etc. Hall for Larson was positional/cap need for EDM, and Jones for Johansen was positional for both teams. Buffalo does not have that same motivation since moving Eichel would destroy them down the middle.

My off the wall idea in the main boad thread, which is sure to get me in trouble, would be if Toronto loses again in the first round to Boston (even if they don't play Boston, they'll find a way to lose to them), Matthews for Eichel. This is assuming there are actual issues with Eichel and Buffalo. A lot of people are going to say Matthews is better, which might be the case, but with the cap possibly being stuck at 81.5M going forward, that kind of move would help the Leafs manage the situation better. Not because they clear a bit over 1 million per season, but because Eichel is cost controlled for longer than Matthews. He has an extra two years of term. Judging by how aggressive Matthews was in the original negotiation, he is going to be looking for a huge UFA contract 4 seasons from now.

The biggest benefit of the swap is that both sides help each other out, because the trade would void Matthews' and Eichel's future NMCs. Both sides would obviously hope to keep their respective players beyond their current contracts, but that would give them even more flexibility going forward if that turns out to not be possible.

The Yashin trade demonstrates that a 2OA can be worth a superstar player (1C). It’s the opposite end of the spectrum of the EK for 6 assets type trade where not one piece at the time had much value.

I don’t think there is any chance it happens anyway ... I doubt he will be traced and could see him want to end up in a city like NYR or PHI. Both teams could send a middle ground group of assets between the 2OA pick and 6 generic assets.

The TOR issue makes sense but I think the negative fan reaction around losing Matthews wouldn’t be worth the perceived gain in bargaining power down the road. Fans hate losing star players. The fan crush is real, look at the negativity around the EK deal.

 

[Cosmix]

I don't think they would do that. Huge downgrade for them collectively to only save 2.1 million in cap.

I think they could get rid of Raanta in a better deal. He is a good goalie, but his value is going to be depressed due to injury troubles.

I could see something like Stepan (post bonus) to Ottawa for a late pick. Similar to the Namestnikov trade. I would prefer if we got an asset to take him, but I think both sides would realize that Ottawa would value Stepan highly at 2M in salary. He's not the player he was when the Coyotes acquired him, but he's still a middle 6 C. I can't see there being a big market for him in a trade because of his cap hit relative to his production.

There won't be a market for Nilsson. The extension was fine in the context of the Senators needs, but 2.6 million is going to be very rich for a backup goalie coming off of concussions. Assuming Nilsson is healthy, I think we are more likely to include Hogberg in a deal to get another goalie. I'd be surprised if Hogberg is our goalie of the future, and he would be a more flexible trade chip because his cap hit can be buried.

I'd almost be surprised if we don't try to capitalize on the buyers market in net next season to find an upgrade on the Hogberg/Nilsson tandem. I don't think Raanta is that guy, but if he comes cheap enough, he's not a bad target. I just don't think we get him for what you outlined above.

I do not see the Senators adding high salaried players to the roster in exchange for draft picks. Increasing expenses is not the objective of the owner who appears to be cash poor and seeking profit not loss in operating the team.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Do you have any better examples of a 1-2OA pick being traded from a year with a player close to Spezza ? I think it is a better example than a mid first round pick or prospect like Norris.

That's exactly the point I was making. Top-3 picks do not get traded, seemingly in any package or deal. The only teams dumb enough to trade a lottery pick were us and San Jose and it's biting both of us in the ass.

 

[Sweatred]

That's exactly the point I was making. Top-3 picks do not get traded, seemingly in any package or deal. The only teams dumb enough to trade a lottery pick were us and San Jose and it's biting both of us in the ass.

The lottery picks were not traded ... they became lottery picks after they were traded as 1RD picks without protective conditions.

Lindros/Forsberg was traded, Seguin, Mcabe/Sedin, E. Kane, Spezza/Yashin ... probably a bunch more. Disgruntled situations do occur.

 

[BondraTime]

That's exactly the point I was making. Top-3 picks do not get traded, seemingly in any package or deal. The only teams dumb enough to trade a lottery pick were us and San Jose and it's biting both of us in the ass.

Neither pick was a lotto pick, otherwise the Leafs did as well.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Neither pick was a lotto pick, otherwise the Leafs did as well.

That's the point. These teams and fanbases are gnashing their teeth at the thought of having given away a top-5 pick, let alone top-3.

If we knew what we knew now, no one on this forum would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Duchene deal.
If they knew what they knew now, no San Jose fans would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Karlsson deal.

 

[BondraTime]

That's the point. These teams and fanbases are gnashing their teeth at the thought of having given away a top-5 pick, let alone top-3.

If we knew what we knew now, no one on this forum would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Duchene deal.
If they knew what they knew now, no San Jose fans would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Karlsson deal.

The fault with us trading it is that we were a bad team in the first place, had more losses than wins but were getting by on loser points, and had just replaced our #2D with Oduya and made no additions to the team, while the guys on our team were significantly worse (Karlsson injured, Chabot not given a spot, Burrows bought out, Boucher making baffling moves etc.).

We were in no position to make a move to win now. They fool heartedly wanted to win before they had to blow up the team, and made short sighted moves without looking at the team in front of them, and their pick ending up as low wasn’t surprising; I mean they had a full 2 seasons before the pick was made.

There is a very real reason to gnash teeth at us trading the pick, then deciding to blow up our team 1.5 months later.

 

[Sweatred]

That's the point. These teams and fanbases are gnashing their teeth at the thought of having given away a top-5 pick, let alone top-3.

If we knew what we knew now, no one on this forum would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Duchene deal.
If they knew what they knew now, no San Jose fans would have been on board with trading a top-5 pick in the Karlsson deal.

That’s the risk that team’s justify taking when taking a run at the peak of their competitive window. The Jays paid something like $80 million for one playoff shot with Tulo. The Sharks paid a top 6 pick for EK... who knows that the Sens get... that story isn’t over yet but these trades will always occur.

 

[playasRus]

After salary bonuses are paid out

stepan (2 mil in actual salary)
raanta (2 mil in actual salary)
for
anisimov (1.5 mil in actual salary)
reilly (1.5 mil in actual salary)
nilsson (2.4 mil in actual salary)

Ottawa saves 1.4 million in salary. Arizona saves 2.1 million in cap hit. Based off last season relative skill being traded is equal. No long term contract traded either. Thoughts?

It's kind of saddening that the Ottawa fan base has basically been reduced to proposing salary reducing trades over the past couple years. Raanta > Nilsson though so not sure their team would do it considering they're trying to contend.

 

[BankStreetParade]

The fault with us trading it is that we were a bad team in the first place, had more losses than wins but were getting by on loser points, and had just replaced our #2D with Oduya and made no additions to the team, while the guys on our team were significantly worse (Karlsson injured, Chabot not given a spot, Burrows bought out, Boucher making baffling moves etc.).

We were in no position to make a move to win now. They fool heartedly wanted to win before they had to blow up the team, and made short sighted moves without looking at the team in front of them, and their pick ending up as low wasn’t surprising; I mean they had a full 2 seasons before the pick was made.

There is a very real reason to gnash teeth at us trading the pick, then deciding to blow up our team 1.5 months later.

That's the point I've been making. You obviously have to be a bad team to get a top-5 pick (or have horrific injuries and bad luck derail your whole season).

If this team trades one of their top-5 picks (in some trade scenarios presented here, 3rd OA) as part of a larger package which includes other high-end prospects, draft picks and roster players for Jack Eichel, is this team still bad or does it all of a sudden become good because of one player?

We're not 1 Eichel away from being a competitive team again. No matter how good he is, we still have a ways to go. We're still thin in depth at nearly every position, especially on defense. Blowing most of our high-value trade currency on one player is short-sighted and, quite frankly, problematic to the task at hand of rebuilding from the ground up.

Next year, if we've come to the point where we realize we have a surplus of great young players, then you can start exploring the trade market and trying to find value for your team using all of the great groundwork you've laid over the past few years.

Trading for Eichel now is just not a great idea. It signals to the fanbase, rightly or wrongly, that this team is ready to compete. It cuts short the time they've bought themselves by saying "we are going to be bad and we are going to draft well" and it instantly creates pressure to succeed. Nothing would be more deflating than getting Eichel, finishing just out of a playoff spot and languishing in the grey zone for years.

 

[BondraTime]

That's the point I've been making. You obviously have to be a bad team to get a top-5 pick (or have horrific injuries and bad luck derail your whole season).

If this team trades one of their top-5 picks (in some trade scenarios presented here, 3rd OA) as part of a larger package which includes other high-end prospects, draft picks and roster players for Jack Eichel, is this team still bad or does it all of a sudden become good because of one player?

We're not 1 Eichel away from being a competitive team again. No matter how good he is, we still have a ways to go. We're still thin in depth at nearly every position, especially on defense. Blowing most of our high-value trade currency on one player is short-sighted and, quite frankly, problematic to the task at hand of rebuilding from the ground up.

Next year, if we've come to the point where we realize we have a surplus of great young players, then you can start exploring the trade market and trying to find value for your team using all of the great groundwork you've laid over the past few years.

Trading for Eichel now is just not a great idea. It signals to the fanbase, rightly or wrongly, that this team is ready to compete. It cuts short the time they've bought themselves by saying "we are going to be bad and we are going to draft well" and it instantly creates pressure to succeed. Nothing would be more deflating than getting Eichel, finishing just out of a playoff spot and languishing in the grey zone for years.

What’s a huge trade?

4th overall + NYI 1st + Brannstrom/Norris + 2nd?

I’d make that every day. Would still have a top 5 pick to take a winger or D, a Top 5 NHL Center at 22 years old, a ton of draft picks, a ton of prospects.

Don’t think there’s a snowballs chance in hell a guy picked at 4th is ever as good as Eichel, a guy at 21 is likely a depth player, lose a good prospect, and another 2nd or equivalent prospect. That’s an easy trade to make, to me, for normal teams not worrying about money. Eichel is 5 years older than these guys, he’s 22.

It’s a moot point, as there is no chance the Sens would trade for Eichel, but Eichel is better than a big combination of maybes.

 

[GCK]

What’s a huge trade?

4th overall + NYI 1st + Brannstrom/Norris + 2nd?

I’d make that every day. Would still have a top 5 pick to take a winger or D, a Top 5 NHL Center at 22 years old, a ton of draft picks, a ton of prospects.

Don’t think there’s a snowballs chance in hell a guy picked at 4th is ever as good as Eichel, a guy at 21 is likely a depth player, lose a good prospect, and another 2nd or equivalent prospect. That’s an easy trade to make, to me, for normal teams not worrying about money. Eichel is 5 years older than these guys, he’s 22.

It’s a moot point, as there is no chance the Sens would trade for Eichel, but Eichel is better than a big combination of maybes.

I agree with everything except your statement that this years #21 will likely be a depth player.

 

[BankStreetParade]

What’s a huge trade?

4th overall + NYI 1st + Brannstrom/Norris + 2nd?

I’d make that every day. Would still have a top 5 pick to take a winger or D, a Top 5 NHL Center at 22 years old, a ton of draft picks, a ton of prospects.

Don’t think there’s a snowballs chance in hell a guy picked at 4th is ever as good as Eichel, a guy at 21 is likely a depth player, lose a good prospect, and another 2nd or equivalent prospect. That’s an easy trade to make, to me, for normal teams not worrying about money. Eichel is 5 years older than these guys, he’s 22.

It’s a moot point, as there is no chance the Sens would trade for Eichel, but Eichel is better than a big combination of maybes.

The value of the trade package is relevant to the discussion. But I've replied more than once now that the perception of trading for Eichel is bad for us right now. Yes, it looks like a positive that we acquired a player with a big, long-term cap hit BUT it also creates the expectation that this team is done rebuilding and ready to compete. And I'm sorry but I just don't see any way how this roster is an Eichel away from being very competitive.

They will languish in mediocrity. Who do you have behind Chabot? Hell, who do you have paired with Chabot? Who's in goal? Who are your wingers? Who is your center depth? Tierney and White? I'm pretty optimistic that White can be a lot better than he showed this year but is he ready to be a surefire #2? We don't know yet.

This trade is 3 impact pieces plus other assets for 1 guy who is hardly enough on his own to really improve this roster's composition. Hell, Buffalo is a much, much better team right now and they still struggled to hang around the outskirts of the playoff picture.

All those pieces you mentioned will increase in value in the next 12 months which is also exactly how long we need to finish the first phase of this rebuild. Once those 12 months have passed, we can start assessing the value of every prospect and upcoming draft pick to determine who can be used as a bargaining chip. We'll get more value out of those pieces in 12 months than we will today.

 

[Samboni]

So if Eichel isn’t happy about losing in Buffalo, does anyone think that he would be happy in Ottawa??? If the Sens ever landed him in a trade, within 6 months, Eichel would be bellyaching which would force PD to flip him for pennies on the dollar. Move on!