Proposal: Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread: Eberle Speculation

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McDNicks17

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Jul 1, 2010
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Seabrook has some interesting underlying numbers.

Coach Q doesn't seem to trust him much in the defensive zone.

Second highest OZFO% on the D and when the Blackhawks were up by 1, he has the lowest DZFO% of all 9 defensemen on the roster.
 

Jet Walters

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May 15, 2013
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Yep. People are acting like he is a liability or something.

He has a NMC so he carries the hammer for his future and I can see a team like Vancouver taking his contract without blinking and it brings him home.

24 hours after the cup is raised I think we will see his traded. Some are saying the leafs are looking at him--but due to the length of his contract it would fall into the area where several of their kids will be looking for huge contracts.

Wild card for Seabrook is him in Calgary

I think with his NTC he controls his destination. I think coming home to Western Canada would be his preference. If nothing else we should at least be players in this as he's exactly what the Oilers need at this moment in time, and at least driving the price up on Calgary or Vancouver has merit in its own right.

I'm not sure if Toronto would be a factor TBH. It's all up to Seabrook and he has a young family and tons of extended family in BC and Alberta.
 

SK13

non torsii subligarium
Jul 23, 2007
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Yep. People are acting like he is a liability or something.

He's likely to be one long before that contract expires.

Ya'll need to get over the idea of Chicago retaining. They aren't burning ~2M on their cap for 7 years. They aren't giving another team 14 million dollars. That's a desperation play, and Seabrook is still useful now.
 

Jumptheshark

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He's likely to be one long before that contract expires.

Ya'll need to get over the idea of Chicago retaining. They aren't burning ~2M on their cap for 7 years. They aren't giving another team 14 million dollars. That's a desperation play, and Seabrook is still useful now.

Seabrook is still a top D-man and I do not see them retaining--they may not get as much for him but they will get something for him
 

Jet Walters

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May 15, 2013
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Big Buff with only four years left might be more palatable. Cost to acquire would be significantly more than Seabrook tho. With Klef and Lars signed so cheap we can make it work. Just need cheaper players to replace Ebs and RNH up front.
 

Hockey Nightmare

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The oil have taken enough of a gamble on Lucic for $6M. They can't afford to start taking on more bad contracts in the 'hope' it turns out for them.
 

Soundwave

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On retaining money, does it apply just to the cap number or both to cap number and actual salary?

Just curious about this because I think we'll probably have to retain to dump Lucic in a few years.

So if we trade Lucic to dump the last two years of his contract and retain $1 million after July 1, 2021, his salary would only be $1.5 million + 3 million to the team acquiring him (factoring he gets a $2.5 mill bonus on July 1)?
 

Hemsky4PM

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Would love to see something like Ebs for Jarnkrok and Petrovic from LV. Would make my summer. Have proposed similar ideas here and heard Almieda​ and Lowetide chatting about it yesterday on 1260. Vegas needs some offense and can absorb Ebs contract for the next two seasons.
 

Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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Would love to see something like Ebs for Jarnkrok and Petrovic from LV. Would make my summer. Have proposed similar ideas here and heard Almieda​ and Lowetide chatting about it yesterday on 1260. Vegas needs some offense and can absorb Ebs contract for the next two seasons.

I think they'd rather just keep Jarnkrok and Petrovic.
 

Fourier

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an increase in cap is just an illusion as long as the escrow is in place. The system always makes a 50/50 split in revenue, so all that new spending just gets taken out of escrow later, and that number has been growing. I have to wonder if players with older deals have just about had it.

As for negotiating escrow, I don't see the owners and Bettman moving off of the principle of a 50/50 split. The cap was supposed to go up and down to reflect the economics of the league, but the NHLPA has abused that system by always using the escalator in all the bad years. Why would the owners feel sympathy for them in that? This strategy seems to be only good at bailing out teams with cap problems, but it's all but guaranteeing we lose another season to a lockout once the CBA runs out, as the players assaulted the most from escrow become that disgruntled about it, and every year there are more of them.

Imo the new CBA has to take a bigger proportion of escrow from newer contracts than it does now, and maybe the league should go to a system where players get paid in a percentage of the cap instead of a hard amount, just so escrow is fairer. There should also be more disincentive to use a cap escalator.

I think there is a misunderstanding about how the cap works and why the escalator is in play.

The cap for the coming year is based on revenue for this year. Roughly speaking they take the estimate for the total revenue for all teams and divide it by 60 (LV is left out of this at this point.) There are some fudge factors around benefits but this is basically the starting point for the calculation. This number is essentially the midpoint for the upcoming season. From here the ceiling and floor are determined by formula.

Now the expectation is that revenues will grow year by year. So since the actual amount the players will receive next year is 50% of next year's revenue to accommodate the expected year to year growth the NHL instituted the 5% escalator. So in a perfect world if teams spent on average exactly to the mid point and if revenues rose 5% each year the players would basically get their full salaries. But what happens is that most teams spend above the mid point towards the upper end of the cap. This means that total salaries exceed the players share and escrow kicks in.

Early on this was less of an issue since revenue growth was exceeding the 5% number. But of late that has not been the case in good part because of a significant drop in the $CDN. (Had the $CDN remained constant over the last four years organic growth would have averaged between 5-6% over those years). As a result the average expenditure is now much closer to the ceiling than it had been in the past and year by year growth has not mitigated this. So escrow has risen. And players with existing deals are seeing their salaries erode.

The problem for the NHLPA is that players with existing contracts have benefitted from the previous use of the escalator. And by stopping it now the roughly 20% of the players with expiring contracts are going to take the big hit for the system reset. In essence organic growth was 5% this year and all players with existing contracts will benefit from this growth but RFA's and UFA's will have a lot les money for raises so they are mostly frozen out of the benefit of the rising revenue.
 
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Joey Moss

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Aug 29, 2008
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I think Eberle to Vegas is the most intriguing possibility. They need to reach the cap floor, and he would be one of their best players. Probably leading scorer. Seems like a good fit, and they will definitely have some defenseman to offer. If Eberle is traded, I hope it's to Vegas.
 

La Bamba

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Aug 23, 2009
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The oil have taken enough of a gamble on Lucic for $6M. They can't afford to start taking on more bad contracts in the 'hope' it turns out for them.

I think Lucic is on a reasonable contract considering we got him as a UFA. He's been worth 6M for the past few years and his play this year was not a step down at all. He just turned 29 so he has a lot of good hockey left. Many teams would take Lucic and his contract for free IMO
 

Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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I think Lucic is on a reasonable contract considering we got him as a UFA. He's been worth 6M for the past few years and his play this year was not a step down at all. He just turned 29 so he has a lot of good hockey left. Many teams would take Lucic and his contract for free IMO

Today yes, but that may not be the case in 2-3 years. That's why having him AND Seabrook on your cap could become extremely dangerous. I'm sure signing Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik looked like "well lets jus do it and if there's a cap problem we'll worry about that then" type issues too to Lombardi.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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I think Eberle to Vegas is the most intriguing possibility. They need to reach the cap floor, and he would be one of their best players. Probably leading scorer. Seems like a good fit, and they will definitely have some defenseman to offer. If Eberle is traded, I hope it's to Vegas.

They will not have a problem reaching the cap floor.
 

shoop

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Jul 6, 2008
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Early on this was less of an issue since revenue growth was exceeding the 5% number. But of late that has not been the case in good part because of a significant drop in the $CDN. (Had the $CDN remained constant organic growth would have averaged between 5-6% over those years). As a result the average expenditure is now much closer to the ceiling than it had been in the past and year by year growth has not mitigated this. So escrow has risen. And players with existing deals are seeing their salaries erode.

The problem for the NHLPA is that players with existing contracts have benefitted from the previous use of the escalator. And by stopping it now the roughly 20% of the players with expiring contracts are going to take the big hit for the system reset. In essence organic growth was 5% this year and all players with existing contracts will benefit from this growth but RFA's and UFA's will have a lot les money for raises so they are mostly frozen out of the benefit of the rising revenue.

What's the CAD/USD exchange rate that allows for organic growth with no impact due to exchange rate disparity?

They will not have a problem reaching the cap floor.

Hitting the cap floor is never an issue. Mainly a pipe dream for teams looking to dump bad contracts.
 

Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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I'd do Lucic for Seabrook + Kruger (saves them about 4 mill in cap space), but I doubt Lucic would waive. Isn't it something when a player refuses to leave Edmonton for Chicago :sarcasm:
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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What's the CAD/USD exchange rate that allows for organic growth with no impact due to exchange rate disparity?

I am not quite sure what you are asking here. Regardless of the actual rate if it remains unchanged then what you will get is basically organic growth. If it drops year to year the drop dampens revenue growth. It if rises it is a net positive.

So this year for example if economic conditions pushed the rate up to say $.76US we would have slightly accelerated growth above the organic rate even though the rate is still no where near par.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Vegas still seems to be the best fit.

I don't think anybody has any idea what Vegas is doing so I wouldn't exactly call them a 'fit' quite yet. For teams with an actual roster, I'd say the Isles probably have the biggest need and the assets to acquire him.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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One complicating matter with Seabrook is that his deal is buyout proof because of the large signing bonuses. If he keeps his NMC it is a little tricky to shed any of this deal.

Never noticed that. The buyout-proof contract. Interesting.

I still think it'd be a shrewd move though. He may break down in year 5or 6 of that deal but he'd be an effective veteran for them and would help developing some of their young defenders there. And teams have a tendency of finding ways to hide these types of players and their contracts in their later years as well.

Assuming he waives his ntc for van.

I wouldn't.

He's from Vancouver.
 
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North

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Jun 25, 2009
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Never noticed that. The buyout-proof contract. Interesting.

I still think it'd be a shrewd move though. He may break down in year 5or 6 of that deal but he'd be an effective veteran for them and would help developing some of their young defenders there. And teams have a tendency of finding ways to hide these types of players and their contracts in their later years as well.

He's already breaking down.

He may have put up some points last season but he wasn't great defensively and that was clear by how the coach deployed him.

He's not the type of player the Oilers should be risking significant cap space on.
 
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