Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals/Free Agents 2017-2018 | Part III

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Continue here..

Click to read more...

 

[RAFI BOMB]

With the lack of activity by the Senators management group this offseason it seems highly probable that Melnyk is in active negotiations to sell the team. It is pure speculation but at the same time it also seems like the only logical way to explain what is going on currently. The alternative just doesn't make any sense to me. If Melnyk spends to the cap floor then attendance will be very low right from the start of the season because there will be no real reason to go to the games. Both Karlsson and Duchene are UFA's at the end of the year and if the Senators can't coordinate a deal with Stone and have to rely on the arbitrator's decision then he will be a UFA at the end of the year as well. If Melnyk continues to own the team and spends to the cap floor then it seems highly likely that all three of Stone, Duchene and Karlsson would walk in free agency. The Senators GM Pierre Dorion has already proven his questionable ability to make competent trades which in turn will make the fans nervous as whatever return he could get. Losing all three would be absolutely devastating and would just anger and upset the fans which would in turn lead them to quit spending money on the team.

Melnyk and Dorion took the time to have those town hall meetings and it opens up the questions of what the point of that was given what they have done since. Even the season ticket packages prices have gone up which seems impossible to justify. There has also been speculation that the season ticket package purchases are way down. The Senators have spent the least of all NHL teams this offseason and basically sat out of free agency. Melnyk seems pretty cheap but it comes across as unlikely that he would risk giving up tens of millions of dollars to give an F U to Ottawa and the fans. He must know that attendance will only drop if they don't ice a higher quality roster. Also even with the risk of losing Stone, Karlsson and Duchene will make both Dorion and Melnyk universally hated in Ottawa and they will find it terrible to live here because the fans will basically chase them out of town.

It just seems much more likely that Melynk is holding back giving out contracts to sell the team. Why would he even want to own the team anymore? He is hated in Ottawa, he is losing money and he will lose more money if he spends less and if he trades Karlsson and loses Stone he won't be able to set foot in the city without being berated by angry fans. Why not cut his losses and just sell the team?

It just makes more sense that the team is in the process of being sold than the alternative of Melnyk burning his own money.

 

[solidprospect]

They're spending at least $10-12M by mid august on Stone and Ceci.. After signing the RFA's it would put us 10-12th in the league in salaries next season perhaps a bit lower.

 

[Sensung]

They're spending at least $10-12M by mid august on Stone and Ceci.. After signing the RFA's it would put us 10-12th in the league in salaries next season perhaps a bit lower.

Are you including Mac's contract that Melnyk will not be paying?

Are you including Gaborik's contract that Melnyk will likely not be paying?

Salary cap hit and actual salary outlay are quite different for the Sens.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

They're spending at least $10-12M by mid august on Stone and Ceci.. After signing the RFA's it would put us 10-12th in the league in salaries next season perhaps a bit lower.

Our current salary for next year is about 60M. 10th in salary cap next year is currently Chicago with about 73M and a 77M projected salary. I don't see us getting into that kind of range.

Your 10-12M for Stone and Ceci is probably pretty close. I highly doubt we'll be spending over 70M so cuts are gonna be made somewhere.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

[MOD]

Aren't you the poster who suggested trading Stone to free up cash to sign Duchene and Karlsson? And then suggested that Stone was just a top six player, implying that he isn't an elite or significant player?

[MOD]

 

[Sensung]

Aren't you the poster who suggested trading Stone to free up cash to sign Duchene and Karlsson? And then suggested that Stone was just a top six player, implying that he isn't an elite or significant player?

I stated that the priority should be to sign the #1C and D.

Stone is a top line winger, but has less value than EK by a large margin.

[MOD]
I want all three signed.
If they can only afford two, then I want Karlsson and Duchene, as they play the more important position.

I voiced zero concern with those who do not share my opinion.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I stated that the priority should be to sign the #1C and D.

Stone is a top line winger, but has less value than EK by a large margin.


I want all three signed.
If they can only afford two, then I want Karlsson and Duchene, as they play the more important position.

I voiced zero concern with those who do not share my opinion.

Okay, I don't know the full extent of what was previously posted or your disagreements so I speculated based on what I knew.

To your first point my response is that it isn't as simple as that. It is a good rule of thumb but in certain contexts it isn't the best strategy. EK is certainly an elite number 1 d man so him being a priority. But when it comes to Duchene vs Stone it isn't as clear. Stone is already a 1A winger and he has the upside to be one of the best wingers in the league. Duchene can play number 1 C but at this point he is more of a 1B or 2A centre. He has some high upside but it isn't so sure whether he will achieve it. In some ways it is kind of like comparing Ovechkin to Backstrom. They are both very valuable players but arguably Ovechkin is more important.

As for your second point you haven't factored in variables such as RFA rights and interest/willingness to play for the Senators. Karlsson may be the more valuable player but if he doesn't want to play here then it is a waste to trade Stone to try to keep him. Also if I was Karlsson I would be even less inclined to sign with the Sens if they traded Stone, it would just suggest the team is moving in the wrong direction.

I am also surprised that you even considered moving Stone. Stone is one of the only players we shouldn't be trading. If salary or cap space was the issue we have a bunch of contracts we could get rid of. It just doesn't make sense to move Stone in any scenario.

It just sounds like you really underrate Mark Stone as a player. One interesting thing worth noting is he has barely played with any other 1st line player in his NHL career and has still put up strong offensive numbers. He barely played with Spezza when Spezza played with the Sens. Turris is a 2A centre and MacArthur is a 2nd/3rd line winger and he helped them both put up strong nunbers. Brassard is arguably a 3A centre or maybe a 2B centre. Pageau and Smith are 3rd liners at best and he made them both look like top six players. The only legitimate 1st liner he has played with is Duchene and he barely plays with him at all. Stone has proven he is an elite player and he even produced at slightly over a point per game this year when the team sucked.

Give Stone some stars or elite players to play with and watch him dominate.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Karlsson is the top priority.

Stone and Duchene are miles behind.

I can see why posters might be hesitant with either of Stone/Duchene. Stone is still a slow skater, and we see whenever he comes back from injury that he needs a lot of time to get back to form (and not just skating form). It's definitely legit to worry how Stone will age, especially with his concussion count climbing so quickly. Duchene may look good with his dipsy doodle possession game, but it's a lot of theater and not as much substance. And you can't ignore a significant 3-year-old slide in Colorado. Both players carry some risk...especially when you're potentially staring down huge numbers and term.

 

[Sensung]

Okay, I don't know the full extent of what was previously posted or your disagreements so I speculated based on what I knew.

To your first point my response is that it isn't as simple as that. It is a good rule of thumb but in certain contexts it isn't the best strategy. EK is certainly an elite number 1 d man so him being a priority. But when it comes to Duchene vs Stone it isn't as clear. Stone is already a 1A winger and he has the upside to be one of the best wingers in the league. Duchene can play number 1 C but at this point he is more of a 1B or 2A centre. He has some high upside but it isn't so sure whether he will achieve it. In some ways it is kind of like comparing Ovechkin to Backstrom. They are both very valuable players but arguably Ovechkin is more important.

As for your second point you haven't factored in variables such as RFA rights and interest/willingness to play for the Senators. Karlsson may be the more valuable player but if he doesn't want to play here then it is a waste to trade Stone to try to keep him. Also if I was Karlsson I would be even less inclined to sign with the Sens if they traded Stone, it would just suggest the team is moving in the wrong direction.

I am also surprised that you even considered moving Stone. Stone is one of the only players we shouldn't be trading. If salary or cap space was the issue we have a bunch of contracts we could get rid of. It just doesn't make sense to move Stone in any scenario.

It just sounds like you really underrate Mark Stone as a player. One interesting thing worth noting is he has barely played with any other 1st line player in his NHL career and has still put up strong offensive numbers. He barely played with Spezza when Spezza played with the Sens. Turris is a 2A centre and MacArthur is a 2nd/3rd line winger and he helped them both put up strong nunbers. Brassard is arguably a 3A centre or maybe a 2B centre. Pageau and Smith are 3rd liners at best and he made them both look like top six players. The only legitimate 1st liner he has played with is Duchene and he barely plays with him at all. Stone has proven he is an elite player and he even produced at slightly over a point per game this year when the team sucked.

Give Stone some stars or elite players to play with and watch him dominate.

Karlsson is the ONLY player we should never consider trading.

Stone is a star winger.

EK is a generational RHD

The Duchene v Stone debate has merit.

In a league where speed is paramount Duchene's value increases and Stone's decreases. Couple that with the positional value and I think a reasonable case can be made for Matt over Mark.

And it bears repeating that the Sens should be signing all 3!!!

 

[solidprospect]

Our current salary for next year is about 60M. 10th in salary cap next year is currently Chicago with about 73M and a 77M projected salary. I don't see us getting into that kind of range.

Your 10-12M for Stone and Ceci is probably pretty close. I highly doubt we'll be spending over 70M so cuts are gonna be made somewhere.

I had us at $61,813,333 as of today on cap friendly. Then just added 12M to that for $73,813,333. Would put us at 13th in the league. So yeah 12M for them is around the max, or lower than that...we could be middle of the pack in cap and that's pretty good too.

Saving money with the Hoffman trade and buying out Burrows, anything else would have likely be done already, in my opinion.

But like. If the season started tomorrow without Stone and Ceci, we would be 29th in the league in salary cap. We have already made the room to re-sign them.

Plenty of rfa's left for other teams to re-sign as well.

 

[solidprospect]

Are you including Mac's contract that Melnyk will not be paying?

Are you including Gaborik's contract that Melnyk will likely not be paying?

Salary cap hit and actual salary outlay are quite different for the Sens.

I don't really know anything about their contract details like that but am assuming they're taken care of.

 

[Josh Hockey]

Ottawa is cheap and pathetic, they’ve spent the least in the league this off season ($5.35M) where the top teams spent over $100M.

www.puckpedia.com/salary-cap/signings-team

 

[Korpse]

Ottawa is cheap and pathetic, they’ve spent the least in the league this off season ($5.35M) where the top teams spent over $100M.

www.puckpedia.com/salary-cap/signings-team

This is a terrible metric.

 

[Josh Hockey]

This is a terrible metric.

It shows that the owner refuses to spend any money. It’s no coincidence they’ve spent the least this off season

 

[solidprospect]

It shows that the owner refuses to spend any money. It’s no coincidence they’ve spent the least this off season

No it doesn't. It shows that we cleared salary to re-sign our RFA's. Or doesn't include that yet more or less.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Ottawa is cheap and pathetic, they’ve spent the least in the league this off season ($5.35M) where the top teams spent over $100M.

www.puckpedia.com/salary-cap/signings-team

Off season isn’t over yet. We will spend some money as Stone and Ceci will be re-signed presumably. I’m ok with staying out of free agency though. So many of those deals end up being a bad idea.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It shows that the owner refuses to spend any money. It’s no coincidence they’ve spent the least this off season

Wasn’t there just a release renovations weee being done to the arena. Could be wrong

 

[Samsquanch]

Ottawa is cheap and pathetic, they’ve spent the least in the league this off season ($5.35M) where the top teams spent over $100M.

www.puckpedia.com/salary-cap/signings-team

Hmm ok but if Karlsson signed his deal then we are all of a sudden top 5 by your metric...

Add in Stone and Ceci (who will both be signed) and we could be #1 lol..

 

[RAFI BOMB]

No it doesn't. It shows that we cleared salary to re-sign our RFA's. Or doesn't include that yet more or less.

This doesn't seem to be a correct interpretation. If that were the case both Stone and Ceci would have their extensions signed. Also your projections of spending in relation to the rest of the league seem off. MacArthur is on IR and I am pretty sure is contract is insured so that is $4.65 m off the books. Gaborik, if he sticks around will be on IR a lot and I believe his contract is also insured so that is another $4.875 m off the books for a big portion of the year.

On top of that there have been serious speculation that all of Karlsson, Ryan, Anderson and Smith are all on the trade block. So that is $6.5 m, $7.25 m, $4.75 m and $3,25 m that could all be off the books with who knows what coming back. There was a rumor going around that Melnyk wanted to spend to the cap floor so that will make the team cheap and mean that we won't be taking back much salary in any trades.

As it stands now, Melnyk is icing a crappy roster with a few good players and with serious talk that one of the few good players (Karlsson) is being actively shopped.

Since free agency started the senators have not done a thing to improve the quality of the team. Centre depth is worse from losing both Turris and Brassard and only having Duchene. Duchene is better than those two but there is still a gap on the 2nd line. Defensive depth is worse since losing Methot and Phaneuf. Forward depth is worse. MacArthur is done so there is still a gap for a top nine forward. Hoffman for Boedker is a downgrade from a top six forward to a top nine forward in terms of offensive production. Gaborik is basically done. Ryan has regressed to a third liner. Zmith has regressed to a 4th liner. No replacement for the lost grit and physicality of Neil. Both goalies are average at best and Anderson is old and will only get worse.

The main positives of this team are the prospects (including Chabot) and the three star players of Karlsson, Stone and Duchene. The Senators haven't locked any of them up long term and as we have seen they are shopping Karlsson.

As it stands now the coaching staff is the same, the management is the same, the ownership is the same and the roster is objectively worse. Dorion hasn't done anything to suggest that this team will be meaningfully better next year. No meaningful trades or free agent signings that objectively make the team better.

 

[solidprospect]

This doesn't seem to be a correct interpretation. If that were the case both Stone and Ceci would have their extensions signed.

Full 2018 Arbitration Hearing Schedule

2018 Arbitration Tracker

Most RFA's around the league get signed close to their hearing date , it's always been like that it's not just because Melnyk is cheap or whatever. Ours happens to be early August... either of them could sign any day now.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

No it doesn't. It shows that we cleared salary to re-sign our RFA's. Or doesn't include that yet more or less.

Both are correct. Our owner is cheap and we are trying to clear money to sign our RFAs under the current strict budget. Hooray unity!

 

[TheBradyBunch]

This doesn't seem to be a correct interpretation. If that were the case both Stone and Ceci would have their extensions signed.

Do you feel like the Leafs (Nylander), Golden Knights (Karlsson, Theodore), Rangers (Spooner, Skjei, Hayes) and the Red Wings (Larkin) are too cheap to sign their RFAs? Personally, I think that they are just negotiating with those players, trying to get the best deals. It's funny because we hear this every single year, and every year we sign our guys without a hitch. It's not just the Sens, though - it happens every year with every RFA and 99% of them re-sign with their teams to a reasonable contract. Neither side will just 'sign an extension' simply because they want to. Both parties will fight tooth and nail to get the best deal. There is nothing wrong with that and it's the whole reason why players have agents.

 

[Duncstar]

With the lack of activity by the Senators management group this offseason it seems highly probable that Melnyk is in active negotiations to sell the team. It is pure speculation but at the same time it also seems like the only logical way to explain what is going on currently. The alternative just doesn't make any sense to me. If Melnyk spends to the cap floor then attendance will be very low right from the start of the season because there will be no real reason to go to the games. Both Karlsson and Duchene are UFA's at the end of the year and if the Senators can't coordinate a deal with Stone and have to rely on the arbitrator's decision then he will be a UFA at the end of the year as well. If Melnyk continues to own the team and spends to the cap floor then it seems highly likely that all three of Stone, Duchene and Karlsson would walk in free agency. The Senators GM Pierre Dorion has already proven his questionable ability to make competent trades which in turn will make the fans nervous as whatever return he could get. Losing all three would be absolutely devastating and would just anger and upset the fans which would in turn lead them to quit spending money on the team.

Melnyk and Dorion took the time to have those town hall meetings and it opens up the questions of what the point of that was given what they have done since. Even the season ticket packages prices have gone up which seems impossible to justify. There has also been speculation that the season ticket package purchases are way down. The Senators have spent the least of all NHL teams this offseason and basically sat out of free agency. Melnyk seems pretty cheap but it comes across as unlikely that he would risk giving up tens of millions of dollars to give an F U to Ottawa and the fans. He must know that attendance will only drop if they don't ice a higher quality roster. Also even with the risk of losing Stone, Karlsson and Duchene will make both Dorion and Melnyk universally hated in Ottawa and they will find it terrible to live here because the fans will basically chase them out of town.

It just seems much more likely that Melynk is holding back giving out contracts to sell the team. Why would he even want to own the team anymore? He is hated in Ottawa, he is losing money and he will lose more money if he spends less and if he trades Karlsson and loses Stone he won't be able to set foot in the city without being berated by angry fans. Why not cut his losses and just sell the team?

It just makes more sense that the team is in the process of being sold than the alternative of Melnyk burning his own money.

There is little chance of that being correct unfortunately. These are the typical silent days of summer.

Teams are content to wait out thr Sens because they know we have a weak hand. The only big news will be Stone and Ceci.

If they dont sign long term contracts then this will get interesting in August.

 

[Frenchy]

Just a reminder: If you need some additionnal informations about your personnal situation following one of our mod's actions , ask in PM only . Do not bring it out into the open for everyone to read.

thank you