Proposal: Trade Rumors and Proposals Thread: Chris Kelly Attending Camp on PTO

[Spawn]

You are ignoring the offer sheet threat that was obvious out there which is what drove Drai's negotiation. Chia didn't buy out Pouliot for shytes and giggles when keeping him as a 4th line winger is easily accomplished. He needed obvious cap space to ward off the threat. So talk about comparables all you want, but if you ignore the offer sheet threat, you are only discussing the part of the issue that suits your narrative.

Offer sheet threat was out there for Pastrnak as well. Didn't stop the Bruins waiting for a better deal.

 

[CupofOil]

One extra UFA season, being a centre, and 14 more career points in 19 more career games, make up a nearly $2 million dollar difference or 27% more.

At the end of Pasternak's deal, they could sign him him for $14M per for 2 years and then the aggregate contract values would be the same. Do you really think Pasternak would get $14M per for years 7 and 8?

That's the gamble Chiarelli made. He's sacrificing close to $2M cap space the next few years thinking Draisaitl is a $12-14M player at the end of it. He may be right, but it's certainly a gamble.

Is it only 1 extra UFA season? Why is that? They are both RFA's.

I'd say the last two seasons are more relevant and Drai doubled Pastrnak's raw production two seasons ago and as I said, position and a big playoffs also played a factor. I don't think their rookie seasons 3 years ago are much of a factor in negotiations. My point is that Pastrnak is likely a better value deal but there's reasons why the Bruins got him at a lower number.

All these RFA contracts are a gamble, not just Drai's. I'd argue that a bigger gamble is giving lots of term to a near 30 year old, basically paying them for what they have proven not what they will be for the duration of the contract. This is why I see the Lucic, Russell and potentially Sekera contracts as bigger issues.

 

[McJadeddog]

Why would you think that he can't carry his own line? He's really good no matter what line he plays on and he passes the eye test too.
Sure he has some proving to do but all you have to do is watch him play to be confident that he can anchor his own line. It's not like he leeched off of McDavid, they benefited each other.

The 8.5 number is a little high for sure and took me by surprise but I don't think it's absurdly high by any means when you look at the Tarasenko and Kuznetsov deals. You have to pay for top talent and Drai is top level talent.

maybe because his stats away from hall or mcdavid have been pedestrian .... outside of a couple games in the playoffs, there have been exactly zero indications that drai can carry his own line in a strength v strength matchup

when drai struggles to score at a 1.75 P/60 rate this next season away from mcdavid, we are all going to be pretty pissed about his massive overpay

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Maroon or RNH if not both.

McDavid and Maroon are the ones who are going to cost us Maroon.

No way he even hits 20 without McDavid at his center.

 

[McJadeddog]

It's a little high today, so it will cost us a bit over the next two-three years, but years 4-8 the percentage should palatable while they should be in their prime.

the problem is that chia has basically done three things with the mcdavid/drai contracts:

1. taken a MASSIVE gamble that drai is a top-10 player in the league, based off the smallest of sample sizes. this is further exasperated by the even smaller "playing on his own line" sample size that shows drai is NOWHERE NEAR an elite player when not playing with another elite player like hall or mcdavid. the size of this gamble, based can't be overstated

2. ensured that we can't win a cup in years 2-4 of drais deal, as we won't have the cap space to compete. we still have enough space this year to compete, so this is our last legitimate kick at the can until likely 2021-22 (the 5th year of drais contract). we'll be competitive during those lean years, but i would be absolutely shocked if we are a dominant team for any of them

3. banked on the cap rising significantly by the back half of the drai/mcdavid contracts. the only way we become dominant from around 20-21 through 24-25 (when drai's contract ends) is if #1 ends up being true, which as noted is already a huge gamble, and the cap limit rising 3-4% a year, which is unlikely in its own right

chia got absolutely bent over on the drai deal, and a little bent over on the mcdavid deal as well. the total "overspend" is likely around 3 million a year between the 2 of them, with the majority of that coming from the ridiculous drai contract

 

[McJadeddog]

Pastrnak and Draisaitl are good comparables because they were drafted in the same draft year, scored at identical rates this season and have identical career numbers as well.

You can say Drai is better all you want, but based on what? The "center" argument falls apart somewhat considering he spent the bulk of this season on the wing. Or is it that Drai had a better playoffs inflated by a 5 point game in a blowout.

As for your comparables:

Kuznetsov is 4 years older, wasn't coming out of his ELC and was going to be a UFA in 2 seasons. Drai was coming off his ELC, and was an RFA for 5 more seasons.

Tarasenko is a good comparable as the absolute upper limit. At 7.5 million. Even if you account for cap inflation, the deal still should have at the very most come in at ~7.75M.

I'm not saying anything about the McDavid contract. That is clearly a unique situation. But there was no reason for Chia to give Draisaitl the contract he did. There's no reason he shouldn't have been able to get him for under 7, even if it meant only 6 years (as if that is somehow a short period of time).

agree 100%... most of us thought that chia got schooled in the drai contract, and pastrnaks contract only solidifies that argument... almost the exact same player, but is signed for almost 2 million/year less than drai.... if this isn't proof of chia being a TERRIBLE negotiator, then i'm not sure what would be considered proof

 

[McJadeddog]

Maybe keep/add depth? $2M in cap space will become huge over the next few seasons as we look to pay Talbot, Nurse, Maroon, etc.

exactly.... 2 million in space allows you to resign maroon and maybe even another lower tier player... it matters a lot actually, especially to a team that will be in "cap hell" like the oilers will be starting next year

chia has proven time and time again that he can't negotiate contracts

 

[backhandsauce]

I'd love to come back from lunch and find out we have acquired Duchene.

 

[belair]

exactly.... 2 million in space allows you to resign maroon and maybe even another lower tier player... it matters a lot actually, especially to a team that will be in "cap hell" like the oilers will be starting next year

chia has proven time and time again that he can't negotiate contracts

And letting Maroon walk allows us to keep Draisaitl for two more seasons of his prime playing years.

People worry far too much about players' salaries on these forums.

I'd love to come back from lunch and find out we have acquired Duchene.

We did. He's our fourth line center.

 

[Aerchon]

maybe because his stats away from hall or mcdavid have been pedestrian .... outside of a couple games in the playoffs, there have been exactly zero indications that drai can carry his own line in a strength v strength matchup

when drai struggles to score at a 1.75 P/60 rate this next season away from mcdavid, we are all going to be pretty pissed about his massive overpay

I agree Leon away from McDavid is absolutely going to look like an overpay unless he continues to develop even more than he already has. That has more to do with 8.5 being a large number than Leons play. Also will have to do with what linemates he has next year while driving his own line.

At the moment he is slated to play with Lucic and Cagullia. A great year for Lucic would be 60+ points and Cuguallia will be lucky to hit 40 points. 65+ points next year for Leon while playing on a line like that while being a positive impact player will be very good and worth at least 7 mill per year.

I don't agree at all that Leon has not proven he can be elite away from Hall and McDavid. Actually it's McDavid that seems to "need" a guy like Maroon to be elite 100 pts effective. Even when playing with Hall and McDavid there were many indications watching Leon play that he was elevating their play than the other way around.

While the contract is likely to be ugly to start with, the player himself is awesome and still developing. By the mid point of his career, between cap escalation and development I imagine we won't be pissed about his salary at all. By the end it should be a bargain. In those terms I am more worried about the 12.5 man than the 8.5 man.

 

[MoneyGuy]

People worry far too much about players' salaries on these forums.

Huh? Several overpayments is the difference between winning a playoff series or two and winning the championship.

 

[McTrashBoat]

Huh? Several overpayments is the difference between winning a playoff series or two and winning the championship.

worry when we sign a 40 year old, not 21 year Olds who were top 10 in scoring last year

 

[MoneyGuy]

worry when we sign a 40 year old, not 21 year Olds who were top 10 in scoring last year

I'll worry on my own schedule, thank you.

I hope Draisaitl's contract works out but it's a risk and an overpayment.

 

[Jejune]

Pastrnak and Draisaitl are good comparables because they were drafted in the same draft year, scored at identical rates this season and have identical career numbers as well.

You can say Drai is better all you want, but based on what? The "center" argument falls apart somewhat considering he spent the bulk of this season on the wing. Or is it that Drai had a better playoffs inflated by a 5 point game in a blowout.

As for your comparables:

Kuznetsov is 4 years older, wasn't coming out of his ELC and was going to be a UFA in 2 seasons. Drai was coming off his ELC, and was an RFA for 5 more seasons.

Tarasenko is a good comparable as the absolute upper limit. At 7.5 million. Even if you account for cap inflation, the deal still should have at the very most come in at ~7.75M.

I'm not saying anything about the McDavid contract. That is clearly a unique situation. But there was no reason for Chia to give Draisaitl the contract he did. There's no reason he shouldn't have been able to get him for under 7, even if it meant only 6 years (as if that is somehow a short period of time).

I agree. 8.5M is clearly too much for Draisaitl given what he's done so far as well as comparables. The only bright side I can see is that he's not going to finish this contract feeling like he really needs to cash in on the next deal (hopefully) and perhaps that he will feel like he really needs to prove he's worth the contract, which I could see based on his personality. But yes, this is going to come back to bite us in other ways.

 

[CupofOil]

Pastrnak and Draisaitl are good comparables because they were drafted in the same draft year, scored at identical rates this season and have identical career numbers as well.

You can say Drai is better all you want, but based on what? The "center" argument falls apart somewhat considering he spent the bulk of this season on the wing. Or is it that Drai had a better playoffs inflated by a 5 point game in a blowout.

As for your comparables:

Kuznetsov is 4 years older, wasn't coming out of his ELC and was going to be a UFA in 2 seasons. Drai was coming off his ELC, and was an RFA for 5 more seasons.

Tarasenko is a good comparable as the absolute upper limit. At 7.5 million. Even if you account for cap inflation, the deal still should have at the very most come in at ~7.75M.

I'm not saying anything about the McDavid contract. That is clearly a unique situation. But there was no reason for Chia to give Draisaitl the contract he did. There's no reason he shouldn't have been able to get him for under 7, even if it meant only 6 years (as if that is somehow a short period of time).

Drai has played over 100 games at center and has produced well in that role after his rookie season. You can skew the numbers all you want but the fact remains that he was amongst the leaders in playoff points most of which came at center so positional importance and playoff production does factor into negotiations. Drai had 51 points in his 2nd season while Pastrnak had 26. Those are the raw numbers, not what Pastrnak could have scored had he played a full season (it's not like he scored 26 points in 26 games or something like that) so Drai had a little more leverage than Pastrnak did.

Once again, I preferred a 6 year deal at a lower number but it's not like Draisaitl took them to the cleaners. 8.5 is an overpay but it's a .5M overpay give or take a few hundred thousand and it's not likely to continue being an overpayment unless you believe that he has peaked at 21. It's not as fatalistic as some are making it out to be.

I take much more issue with the Russell deal than this one but that's another story for another time.

 

[sepHF]

great contract for Pastrnak. Makes Draisaitls look pretty bad in comparison.

Hopefully Leon can put up 90 points

 

[belair]

Huh? Several overpayments is the difference between winning a playoff series or two and winning the championship.

You heard me. I said PEOPLE WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT PLAYERS SALARIES ON THESE FORUMS.

If the Oilers avoid poor spending throughout the rest of the roster unlike GM Don Sweeney, the Oilers will have no issues absorbing that ~$1.5m of 'misspent' cap space.

great contract for Pastrnak. Makes Draisaitls look pretty bad in comparison.

Hopefully Leon can put up 90 points

He won't.

 

[McTrashBoat]

would anyone straight up trade Drai for Pasta?

 

[JarvisFunk]

would anyone straight up trade Drai for Pasta?

Big no from me

 

[MoneyGuy]

would anyone straight up trade Drai for Pasta?

Depends. Spaghetti, no, but I'm partial to ravioli stuffed with beef and three cheeses.

 

[McTrashBoat]

Depends. Spaghetti, no, but I'm partial to ravioli stuffed with beef and three cheeses.

 

[bone]

Is it only 1 extra UFA season? Why is that? They are both RFA's.

Draistaitl played enough in his first season to burn a year from his contract, but didn't play enough games to earn a season experience accrued toward UFA, so he had 5 years RFA left as opposed to Pasternak's 4.

I'd say the last two seasons are more relevant and Drai doubled Pastrnak's raw production two seasons ago and as I said, position and a big playoffs also played a factor. I don't think their rookie seasons 3 years ago are much of a factor in negotiations. My point is that Pastrnak is likely a better value deal but there's reasons why the Bruins got him at a lower number.

Pasternak's rookie year was way better and Leon's second year way better. Each of their third year's though were virtually the same with Pasternak having 7 less points in 7 less games, but about 5 more goals (which are valued higher than assists by some). The sum of both is 14 more points for Leon but in 19 more games. That's pretty close to identical.

All these RFA contracts are a gamble, not just Drai's. I'd argue that a bigger gamble is giving lots of term to a near 30 year old, basically paying them for what they have proven not what they will be for the duration of the contract. This is why I see the Lucic, Russell and potentially Sekera contracts as bigger issues.

Won't disagree on that. I'd rather take this bet on a young player than a 30 year old player, unless you paying future year premiums in the hopes that 30 year old is the guy that puts you over the top to win a cup.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

agree 100%... most of us thought that chia got schooled in the drai contract, and pastrnaks contract only solidifies that argument... almost the exact same player, but is signed for almost 2 million/year less than drai.... if this isn't proof of chia being a TERRIBLE negotiator, then i'm not sure what would be considered proof

no they're not, Drai is a center with the versatility to play wing
Pasta is strictly a winger

Oilers bought 3 UFA years
Bruins bought 1 UFA year

and people who say Drai was propped up by McDavid forget Pasta plays on a line with 85-point Brad Marchand

 

[McSuper]

Easily. Too bad chia seemingly had no intention of any semblance at negotiation this summer. Boston did the exact right move with pastrnak. Recognized that there was no rush to get a deal done and waited the player out until they folded. Didn't even end up costing them any training camp.

We all can speculate but the same fans who are bashing Chia for the deals would have bested him even worst if he drove a wedge between the team and Draisaitl and Draisaitl ended up wanting out . Some times it not worth having your best players resenting the GM for playing hard ball with them .

Draisaitl is quickly developing a mean streak . He is big and strong . He would be a 1C on most teams and he thrived last year against the bigger teams . It is going to be a handful for any team to match up against the Oilers in the future 1a/1b line

XXX McDavid Puljujarvi 1a line
Lucic Draisaitl Yamamoto can be a 1a line

 

[Frank the Tank]

There are comparables for Draisaitl and Pastrnak situations, and there are significant differences. Pastrnak played with Bergeron (the best two-way center in the game) and Marchand (arguably the best two-way winger in the game), who are both signed to contracts around $6-7M/season. He didn't have a strong argument that he could 1) play at an elite level away from them, and 2) deserves to be paid significantly more than them.