Trade Returns - Stone/Duchene/Dzingel

[Clayonator]

The intent of this thread is specific to discussion of ideal/realistic potential returns of said 3 players assuming moved, as opposed to general speculation encompassing the entire roster, as well as whether or not players in question will decide to sign or walk.

That all being said - I feel as though Nashville and Winnipeg provide us with the greatest potential returns of Duchene and Stone. That said the prospect inclusion may differ. Would you rather Tolvanen, or Fabbro from Nashville as a centre piece? Would you rather Veselainen or Niku from Nashville? Any circumstancial possibility of acquiring both via sign from each team via sign and trade? What other teams would offer comparable value? And what about Dzingel? Come on, come all!

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[Sting]

I think the problem we're going to end up having is neither Stone or Duchene will be willing to discuss an extension.

The growing trend in the NHL is that top end prospects aren't really given up for rentals, no matter how good they are. Even if they are available, I don't think Dorion has the negotiating skills to get them.

I'd expect the realistic returns for both Duchene and Stone to be a 1st (likely mid 20s), and two "good" to average prospects.

Dzingel likely just a 1st, or a 2nd and a good/average prospect.

My expectations might be underwhelming, but that's what I think we're going to end up with.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think to start, the idea of any kind of sign and trade needs to be tossed out. It's just unrealistic and doesn't happen.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

I think to start, the idea of any kind of sign and trade needs to be tossed out. It's just unrealistic and doesn't happen.

I think that too. but Ottawa has been part of the last 2 sign and trades in the NHL with the Turris and Burrows trades so they have done it before and have experience with it.

 

[Sureves]

My predictions:

Stone: Fringe Top 6 Forward / #4D making around $4-5M, team's 3rd or 4th best prospect, 2nd round pick, random prospect

Duchene: Fringe Top 6 Forward / #4D making around $4-5M, conditional 1st round pick (otherwise 2nd), 3rd round pick, random prospect

Dzingel+someone random: 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, random prospect

In other words, crap.

 

[GrantLemons]

These deals are so hard to win these days, and given the fact we have no leverage (tick tock) and probably the worst negotiating GM in the league, I'm really not getting my hopes up.

I would honestly expect returns of EK trade caliber. Middling prospects, low end 1sts or 2nds. No one is giving up a top prospect, or a quality young roster player. Those guys are just too valuable.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think that too. but Ottawa has been part of the last 2 sign and trades in the NHL with the Turris and Burrows trades so they have done it before and have experience with it.

It's true, but I think those cases were quite different and specific.

The Turris deal is about what everyone knew it was going to take, Ottawa just never offered it and decided to try to upgrade instead, but Turris was ready to negotiate in November, unlike our guys, so it indicates he really did want a deal done. Since this was done in November with no trade deadline clock ticking, there were no deadline pressure points rushing decisions.

Burrows was refusing to accept the deal unless he got that extension, so it was essentially a requirement if we wanted him. He also wouldn't have been a high demand player in FA, so it wouldn't have the same appeal.

With Stone, Duchene and Dzingel, they're now months away from choosing their own destination from a pile of suitors fawning over them. It's not impossible, but I definitely don't see it happening and personally don't think it's plausible enough to even spend much time discussing.

 

[SAK11]

I actually think a 1st for Dzingel is ambitious. If he had an extra year on his deal sure, but as it stands, I’m not sure we’ll get a 1st for 20 some games of him. He just doesn’t have a long track record of sustained success. I think he’ll be viewed as a speedy middle 6 winger by contending teams. Not a physical player, not a center, not a special teams difference maker. If they get a 1st for him, I’d be impressed.

I also don’t see us getting A level prospects in return for our guys. As good as Duchene and Stone are, they’re rentals, and teams do whatever they can to hold on to their top end prospects. Dobson would be amazing, but I’d be shocked to see him dealt by NYI. It’s like how we pushed hard not to give up the likes of Brown, White and Chabot in the Duchene deal.

Being unable to get high quality, I expect Dorion to do what he did with the Karlsson trade and get quantity instead. So in dealing Duchene for example, probably expect a 1st, a B level prospect (like a Josh Norris), a so-so NHLer (like Spooner going to the Rangers last year), maybe a future 2nd, and then he likely gives a 5th and gets a 6th because he always seems to do that.

Someone on this board mentioned it and I agree that Ottawa should target 2020 1st round picks. The teams giving up their 1sts this year are contending, so at best they’ll be in the early 20s. Ottawa won’t be good for a while so there’s no worry on waiting the extra year for the pick. There’s always that chance that the team that gave up the pick sucks a year later and you get a better pick.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

It's true, but I think those cases were quite different and specific.

The Turris deal is about what everyone knew it was going to take, Ottawa just never offered it and decided to try to upgrade instead, but Turris was ready to negotiate in November, unlike our guys, so it indicates he really did want a deal done. Since this was done in November with no trade deadline clock ticking, there were no deadline pressure points rushing decisions.

Burrows was refusing to accept the deal unless he got that extension, so it was essentially a requirement if we wanted him. He also wouldn't have been a high demand player in FA, so it wouldn't have the same appeal.
Well said.

With Stone, Duchene and Dzingel, they're now months away from choosing their own destination from a pile of suitors fawning over them. It's not impossible, but I definitely don't see it happening and personally don't think it's plausible enough to even spend much time discussing.

Aside from Tavares who had his sights set on Toronto, these are some of the best UFA's to hit the open market that I can remember.

I do however think that we may see a team give a little extra if they have the cap room and think that they have a decent shot at signing the guy (I could see the NY Islanders doing this with Duchene).

 

[Answer]

1 elite prospect each for both Duchene and Stone. Preferably a Center and a Defenseman. Any added pieces after that is gravy

A young steady top 4 defenseman does it for Dzingel


Must have when all 3 trades go down:

top prospect (Ccnter)
top prospect (Defense)
young top 4 defenseman
young top 6 forward
at least 1 first round pick

If this doesn't happen then we better hope to god that..
Brown turns into Mackinnon
Batherson turns into Rantanen

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Aside from Tavares who had his sights set on Toronto, these are some of the best UFA's to hit the open market that I can remember.

I do however think that we may see a team give a little extra if they have the cap room and think that they have a decent shot at signing the guy (I could see the NY Islanders doing this with Duchene).

For sure. Stone, Duchene, Karlsson and Panarin will be the 4 best UFA's to make it to market in like 10 to 20 years other than Tavares as you mentioned. Crazy that 3 of them come from our team alone.

I could definitely see teams trying to sign them after the trade, and perhaps something conditional will be attached for this scenario, but the whole sign and trade thing feels farfetched for guys of this caliber so close to UFA.

 

[BondraTime]

1 elite prospect each for both Duchene and Stone. Preferably a Center and a Defenseman. Any added pieces after that is gravy

A young steady top 4 defenseman does it for Dzingel


Must have when all 3 trades go down:

top prospect (Ccnter)
top prospect (Defense)
young top 4 defenseman
young top 6 forward
at least 1 first round pick

If this doesn't happen then we better hope to god that..
Brown turns into Mackinnon
Batherson turns into Rantanen

The best prospect we got for a full year of Karlsson was Norris. Expect that as the high end of guys we get back.

 

[benjiv1]

If either Stone or Duchene go to Nashville, I think we could pry away one of Tolvanen or Fabbro, get a 1st and forgo a roster player.

After Boyle got a 2nd, Dzingle can get us a first.

 

[JD1]

1 elite prospect each for both Duchene and Stone. Preferably a Center and a Defenseman. Any added pieces after that is gravy

A young steady top 4 defenseman does it for Dzingel


Must have when all 3 trades go down:

top prospect (Ccnter)
top prospect (Defense)
young top 4 defenseman
young top 6 forward
at least 1 first round pick

If this doesn't happen then we better hope to god that..
Brown turns into Mackinnon
Batherson turns into Rantanen

In no universe are you going to get a young top 4 defencemen for a ufa top 6 winger.

 

[Ouroboros]

It's hard to pin down a reasonable return for guys like Stone and Duchene. In recent years it's been a difficult market for rental players. That said, these guys are a higher calibre of player than what has traditionally been available. Teams just don't lose prime-aged, franchise type pieces. So maybe we'll get a little more than might be expected simply based on player quality.

I don't see a top prospect coming back - in the cap era you just can't give these guys up, especially not for a 20 game rental. Consider that we got Duchene without giving up one of our top guys and he had 18 months left on his deal and work off of that.

As a skeleton I expect to get 3 pieces:

1. A young roster player that projects to be a solid, reliable depth type player. Think Ryan Hartman [Nashville], Mason Appleton [Winnipeg], Anthony Beauvillier [NYI], Danton Heinen [Boston] - players of that ilk.

2. A 1st round pick. Probably non-negotiable.

3. A quality prospect, but not somebody ranked top 3 in any team's pool. So a guy like Frederic Allard or Grant Mismash [Nashville], Jonathan Kovacevic, Declan Chisholm or Leon Gawanke [Winnipeg], Kieffer Bellows or Parker Wotherspoon [NYI], Zach Senyshyn, Jeremy Lauzon or Anders Bjork [Boston].

4. Likely that the sens will insist on a conditional pick if either guy re-signs with the team they're traded to.

Dzingel seems pretty straightforward to me. He'll go for a 2nd round pick and maybe a second piece, similar to Grabner last year. They may also explore a scenario like the Patrick Eaves trade a few years ago - a 2nd round pick that can upgrade to a 1st if the team that acquires him wins a few playoff rounds.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Dzingel won't get us a 1st. He will either get us a 2nd that becomes a 1st if he re-signs, or a 2nd and a prospect or young player. Something like Honka and a 2nd from Dallas.

Word about Tolvanen and Niku being available, along with Ottawa's ask supposedly being a 1st, a top prospect, and another piece makes me think Tolvanen/2019 NSH 1st/Bonino along with Niku/2019 WPG 1st/Perrault could be the returns for both Stone and Duchene. No conditional elements. We take Perrault who is a borderline cap dump at this point, and Bonino as the exciting "well we need to add players to reach the cap floor, exciting" elements of the deal.

With that said, the idea of us getting Tolvanen for a rental still makes no sense. I agree with the people who say teams don't give their best prospects for rentals.

I could see Ceci being a similar scenario to Dzingel. We want a 1st, and we hold out a bit for it, but we end up settling for a 2nd and a prospect.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

While it may be true that Dzingel won't get us a 1st, Brian Boyle was just traded for a 2nd. If Dzingel gets the same/similar return as him, It will be sad.

 

[Micklebot]

In no universe are you going to get a young top 4 defencemen for a ufa top 6 winger.

Depends what you mean by young top 4 Dman; we certainly could have traded a UFA Dzingel for DeMelo this offseason (assuming we hadn't already acquired him as part of the Karlsson deal.

Dzingel is arguably worth as much more than the late first we gave up for Campoli back in the day, he was a young top 4 Dman.

We aren't getting a young established top 4 Dman with upside, but we might be able to get a top 4 dman that's plateaud at #4 and is still young enough to be part of a rebuild, or perhaps a less established guy with upside who is underutilized but in the right situation could thrive.

Heck, Petry who at the time was 26 was traded for a 2nd and a 5th, granted with our current situation I doubt we go after a UFA and attempt to extend him.

 

[DrEasy]

My predictions:
- Stone: we get a 1st rounder + 1 depth player (Boedker-ish) + 1 middling prospect (Nurmi-ish)
- Duchene: we get a 1st rounder + 1 depth player + 1 middling prospect
- Dzinger: we get a 2nd rounder + 1 depth player

Of course I hope the return is much better than that, but I think that's the best Dorion is capable of.

 

[JD1]

Depends what you mean by young top 4 Dman; we certainly could have traded a UFA Dzingel for DeMelo this offseason (assuming we hadn't already acquired him as part of the Karlsson deal.

Dzingel is arguably worth as much more than the late first we gave up for Campoli back in the day, he was a young top 4 Dman.

We aren't getting a young established top 4 Dman with upside, but we might be able to get a top 4 dman that's plateaud at #4 and is still young enough to be part of a rebuild, or perhaps a less established guy with upside who is underutilized but in the right situation could thrive.

Heck, Petry who at the time was 26 was traded for a 2nd and a 5th, granted with our current situation I doubt we go after a UFA and attempt to extend him.

The post i quoted said young steady top 4 D

And you're simply not getting that for a ufa top 6 winger

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

My predictions:
- Stone: we get a 1st rounder + 1 depth player (Boedker-ish) + 1 middling prospect (Nurmi-ish)
- Duchene: we get a 1st rounder + 1 depth player + 1 middling prospect
- Dzinger: we get a 2nd rounder + 1 depth player

Of course I hope the return is much better than that, but I think that's the best Dorion is capable of.

I may give him a low five if that's what he got if we're trading. That said, I expect much less with Dorion at the helm. He should have Wilson and Sakic on block by now but I wouldn't doubt if they are on his speed dial.

 

[Masked]

If they have to be traded I'd like to see a scenario where Huberdeau, who is supposedly on the block, ends up here.

 

[BUCKLE UP]

Dzingel will get a 3rd + 4th
Duchene will get a mediocre prospect + conditional 1st (if said team makes the final, otherwise it's a 2nd) + a young, underachieving NHL player
Stone will get a late 1st + B prospect + contract dump

 

[Micklebot]

The post i quoted said young steady top 4 D

And you're simply not getting that for a ufa top 6 winger

DeMelo has been pretty steady for us. Petry has certainly been steady for Mtl. Value wise, both could have been had for Dzingel. The problem is that a team moving a top 4 dman would probably prefer futures even if Dzingel could return a similar futures package. So, it would be far easier to trade Dzingel for say a late 1st and then flip that late 1st for a top 4 dman as there aren't too many teams with too many top 4 dmen that they can spare one to shore up the wing for their playoff run.

truth be told, it's more about what people consider steady. We aren't getting something special, but guys like Michael Stone played as a top 4 D in Arizona, and was generally described as a pretty steady defender. That's probably the type of guy we might be able to get for Dzingel. More of a 4/5 guy.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Dzingel will get a 3rd + 4th
Duchene will get a mediocre prospect + conditional 1st (if said team makes the final, otherwise it's a 2nd) + a young, underachieving NHL player
Stone will get a late 1st + B prospect + contract dump

the returns will be better then that for sure