Proposal: Trade Proposal Thread Part XIII

[Habs Halifax]

If Edmonton is willing to take back Alzner's rest of contract for Lucic, that's ok.

I'm not trying to be desperate for Lucic. I'm trying to take advantage. Let me re-post the deal I would do...

- Lucic (waives his NMC)
- Oilers 1st (9th OA at the moment). Of course the deal is squashed if they get a lottery pick
for
- Alzner (Buy out friendly after next season)
- Lehkonen and a 2nd (other pieces that could be part of the package is Ikonen and McShane).

Habs still have lots of cap space after this move.... something like $12M ish with a $83M cap. Remember, we don't have to re-sign Lehkonen cause he is with the Oilers after this trade.

If the Oilers really want to move Lucic and the Habs are on his small selective teams he would waive for, we have the upper hand. If they say no to the base of this packaged deal... sure, let them drown with Lucic

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not homegrown talent.

Obviously they'll want to clear out Lucic, but not at the expanse of Lucic. Capspace isn't first in order, talent is.

Top end talent to insert sooner rather than later. The 9th pick gets them pieces like Kaliyev, Turcotte, or Zegras. When do you think they provide impact in the NHL? 3+ years from now? So it really comes down to their ability to buy out Alzner after next year and add Lehkonen and a 2nd vs Kaliyev/Turcotte/Zegras types.

Alzner's contract is by far the better buy out contract vs Lucic. No team is adding Lucic without dumping one back on them.

 

[smirob]

I’m not completely opposed to taking on Lucic’s contract. I think that he would waive for MTL and we are in good condition capwise.

The payback would have to be worth it however. it would take more than just the 2019 1st though

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m not completely opposed to taking on Lucic’s contract. I think that he would waive for MTL and we are in good condition capwise.

The payback would have to be worth it however. it would take more than just the 2019 1st though

You want more than the 1st? Are you not trying to send Alzner the other way in this case? Explain

 

[Mrb1p]

Top end talent to insert sooner rather than later. The 9th pick gets them pieces like Kaliyev, Turcotte, or Zegras. When do you think they provide impact in the NHL? 3+ years from now? So it really comes down to their ability to buy out Alzner after next year and Lehkonen and a 2nd for Kaliyev/Turcotte/Zegras types.

Is the choice hard in your mind ? Do you even know what kind of talent these type of players you listed are ?

I'll help you because I'm positive you don't.

Turcotte is a two-way beast, Turcotte is probably one of the only three or four players I'd take over Kotkaniemi if he was a 2019 draftee instead. Turcotte has the 4th best PPG of all time in the USNTDP. Better than Eichel, Keller, and just behind Hughes, Matthews and Kessel. He's an elite talent. Two-way type forward that is producing at near-generational levels, while getting 2nd line minutes and less than favorables QOT and QOC. Turcotte is MAXIMUM a year away from being a 50 points player in the NHL.
But regardless, Turcotte won't fall out of the top 5, and neither would Byram.

So that leaves you with Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Podkolzin, Boldy, Heinola and a few others.

All these players are bluechip prospects. Cody Glass, Kravtsov, PLD types. There's no chance ANY team gives up a chance at this type of elite talent to actually gain a year of cap space and 800k, no matter what you think "Lekhonen and a 2nd" might do. It's ridiculous, it's like you have no sense of insight. Please take a moment and try to rationalize the offer you make.

Lets say were in June 2018, we have the pick and we don't know who well pick in 2018... Got a shot at Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, Boqvist, Hughes, Smith, Kravtsov and co. Would you trade that pick and Alzner for an equally bad contract but a bit shorter, a 4th liner and a 2nd round pick ?

It's actually ridiculous that you don't see the disparity in value on this one. My mind is actually blown.

 

[danyhabsfan]

Id take Lucic to get my hands on another top 10 pick.

We have a lot of cap space anyway

 

[Habs Halifax]

Is the choice hard in your mind ? Do you even know what kind of talent these type of players you listed are ?

I'll help you because I'm positive you don't.

Turcotte is a two-way beast, Turcotte is probably one of the only three or four players I'd take over Kotkaniemi if he was a 2019 draftee instead. Turcotte has the 4th best PPG of all time in the USNTDP. Better than Eichel, Keller, and just behind Hughes, Matthews and Kessel. He's an elite talent. Two-way type forward that is producing at near-generational levels, while getting 2nd line minutes and less than favorables QOT and QOC. Turcotte is MAXIMUM a year away from being a 50 points player in the NHL.
But regardless, Turcotte won't fall out of the top 5, and neither would Byram.

So that leaves you with Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Podkolzin, Boldy, Heinola and a few others.

All these players are bluechip prospects. Cody Glass, Kravtsov, PLD types. There's no chance ANY team gives up a chance at this type of elite talent to actually gain a year of cap space and 800k, no matter what you think "Lekhonen and a 2nd" might do. It's ridiculous, it's like you have no sense of insight. Please take a moment and try to rationalize the offer you make.

Lets say were in June 2018, we have the pick and we don't know who well pick in 2018... Got a shot at Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, Boqvist, Hughes, Smith, Kravtsov and co. Would you trade that pick and Alzner for an equally bad contract but a bit shorter, a 4th liner and a 2nd round pick ?

It's actually ridiculous that you don't see the disparity in value on this one. My mind is actually blown.

I highly doubt the 8th, 9th, or 10th pick provides impact value in the NHL in the next 3 seasons... no matter how high you are with them in terms of future ceiling potential. Do the Oilers need to make a move like this? No idea. But if they want to move Lucic badly, they need to negotiate with the team Lucic tells them he will waive his NMC for.

 

[Sorinth]

Not homegrown talent.

Obviously they'll want to clear out Lucic, but not at the expanse of Lucic. Capspace isn't first in order, talent is.

I doubt they'll want to build through the draft for another 3+ years which means to get talent they'll need to trade or sign UFAs. That requires capspace, so sure clearing capspace isn't more important then getting talent, but in their situation it's pretty much a required first step.

 

[Mrb1p]

I highly doubt the 8th, 9th, or 10th pick provides impact value in the NHL in the next 3 seasons... no matter how high you are with them in terms of future ceiling potential. Do the Oilers need to make a move like this? No idea. But if they want to move Lucic badly, they need to negotiate with the team Lucic tells them he will waive his NMC for.

Really ? Look at the players drafted in the past five years...

Provorov, Rantanen, Hanifin, Werenski, Barzal, All took less than 3 years to come in.
Tkachuk, Keller, Sergachev, Jost, McAvoy, Chychrun,
Pettersson, Heiskanen, Patrick, Hischier, Andersson, Rasmussen, Mittlestatd
Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Hughes

That 3+ is ridiculous to be honest.

Lets be honest here, would you even give Poehling or Romanov instead of that first if you were Edmonton ? I doubt it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Really ? Look at the players drafted in the past five years...

Provorov, Rantanen, Hanifin, Werenski, Barzal, All took less than 3 years to come in.
Tkachuk, Keller, Sergachev, Jost, McAvoy, Chychrun,
Pettersson, Heiskanen, Patrick, Hischier, Andersson, Rasmussen, Mittlestatd
Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Hughes

That 3+ is ridiculous to be honest.

Lets be honest here, would you even give Poehling or Romanov instead of that first if you were Edmonton ? I doubt it.

1) How many of those guys were taken 8th, 9th, 10th+?

2) How many prospects taken 8th OA+ provide NHL impact value in less than 3 years from being drafted?

Stop using exaggeration to prove your spin. It's very disingenuous.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Who considers this move?

Our 1st (15th +/-) for Leddy?

 

[Mrb1p]

1) How many of those guys were taken 8th, 9th, 10th+?

2) How many prospects taken 8th OA+ provide NHL impact value in less than 3 years from being drafted?

Stop using exaggeration to prove your spin. It's very disingenuous.

Barzal, Rantanen, Connor, Provorov, Sergachev, Werenski, McAvoy, Chychrun, Jost, Rasmussen, Mittlestatd, Andersson were all picked after 7.

I mean, the evidence is in every draft list, factually, and you ignore it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Barzal, Rantanen, Connor, Provorov, Sergachev, Werenski, McAvoy, Chychrun, Jost, Rasmussen, Mittlestatd, Andersson were all picked after 7.

I mean, the evidence is in every draft list, factually, and you ignore it.

OK now that you are not trying to exaggeration things to prove a spin, can you provide the probability between your cherry picked hits vs those picks that bust or have taken longer than 3 years from being drafted to provide impact in the NHL?

Once again... 8th+ OA picks.

Oilers just took Bouchard with the 10th OA pick. How many seasons does he need to be a top 4D? One or two more?

 

[Vachon23]

Jordan Eberle 2 years 5m what do you think ?

 

[Mrb1p]

OK now that you are not trying to exaggeration things to prove a spin, can you provide the probability between your cherry picked hits vs those picks that bust or have taken longer than 3 years from being drafted to provide impact in the NHL?

Once again... 8th+ OA picks.

Oilers just took Bouchard with the 10th OA pick. How many seasons does he need to be a top 4D? One or two more?

He probably never ends up being a top 4 because he was a bad pick. But he's 100% going to play next year.

As I said in another thread, you're literally more likely to end up with an elite player than a bust in the top 15 since the late 00's. Obviously, some will take longer, but players rarely take three years before making the NHL team. If your player is good, it's 2 years tops. We've seen it happen with every elite player in the league.

3 years starts to be bust territory.

 

[Mrb1p]

Jordan Eberle 2 years 5m what do you think ?

I don't mind it, if it's free. He sucks though... He's likely no better than Drouin.

 

[John B]

- Alzner
- Lehkonen or a 2nd. Might be other options depending on what the Oilers want to add. Options are Ikonen, McShane, etc.
for
- Lucic (Wavies his NMC)
- 2019 1st.

* If Lucic waives his NMC, does this mean it's gone completely? What about the ability to negotiate it to a NTC to 10 teams ish so we don't have to protect him in the expansion draft? Swapping Lucic for Alzner adds $1.4M in cap hit and one extra year in term which is not ideal cause Lucic's contract is not as buy out friendly as Alzner's is. Regardless, we still have lots of cap space to play with.
* Habs take either Kaliyev or Hartley with the 9th pick (+/-)
* Habs take either Broberg or Caufield with the 18th pick (+/-)
* Habs sign Edler to a 3 year deal at $5.5M or Gardner for 3 years at $6M. 3 years in term is the key and I would not go any higher in term. I am willing to sacrifice a higher AAV to keep the term at 3 years.

Before you flip out about Lucic, Consider that we still about $6M left in cap space after all these moves and we have already addressed our team needs. Makes the team better today and for the future without mortgaging the future greatly

For the NMC to be gone, Lucic would have to nullify it. If it's nullified by the player it is gone for good. He can waive his NMC for a specific transaction, but he keeps the NMC with his new team. I read it on capfriendly.com.

In a deal like this, you could always get the Oilers to kick in a conditional pick if Lucic doesn't waive his NMC for the expansion draft. I kind of wish it worked more like baseball trades where you could have the condition be "a player to be named later". I suppose that's what future considertations means, but I've never seen anything significant get dealt a year or two after the deal to satisfy the "future considertations".

 

[Habs Halifax]

He probably never ends up being a top 4 because he was a bad pick. But he's 100% going to play next year.

Not sure. But I think you understand my point now. Yes, the Oilers need to insert top end talent but when does this 8th, 9th, 10th pick provide impact value for them? Does probability say it's sooner or later? Like less than 3 years or more?

All depends how desperate they are to unload Lucic. If I'm the Habs GM and they call me cause Lucic says he would waive his NMC, my price is the Oilers have to add the 2019 1st and we will add Lehkonen, 2nd, and Alzner. They get to swap Lucic for Lehkonen who provides top 9 value in terms of speed and a 200' game and they buy out Alzner after next season.

If they don't like it, that is their problem, not ours. We are not desperate to add Lucic

 

[Mrb1p]

Not sure. But I think you understand my point now. Yes, the Oilers need to insert top end talent but when does this 8th, 9th, 10th pick provide impact value for them? Does probability say it's sooner or later? Like less than 3 years or more?

All depends how desperate they are to unload Lucic. If I'm the Habs GM and they call me cause Lucic says he would waive his NMC, my price is the Oilers have to add the 2019 1st and we will add Lehkonen, 2nd, and Alzner. They get to swap Lucic for Lehkonen who provides top 9 value in terms of speed and a 200' game and they buy out Alzner after next season.

If they don't like it, that is their problem, not ours. We are not desperate to add Lucic

You can also go to a Ferrari dealer and offer up your beat up econobox for it... Its their problem if they want to sell it, but they still probably won't do it.

In reality, the payback for swappong Alzners with Lucic's contract is probably closer to a 2nd round pick in value than one of the most valuable assets in the league (IE a lottery pick.)

 

[Habs Halifax]

For the NMC to be gone, Lucic would have to nullify it. If it's nullified by the player it is gone for good. He can waive his NMC for a specific transaction, but he keeps the NMC with his new team. I read it on capfriendly.com.

In a deal like this, you could always get the Oilers to kick in a conditional pick if Lucic doesn't waive his NMC for the expansion draft. I kind of wish it worked more like baseball trades where you could have the condition be "a player to be named later". I suppose that's what future considertations means, but I've never seen anything significant get dealt a year or two after the deal to satisfy the "future considertations".

Worse case... It comes down to what the buy outs look like between buying out Alzner (June of 2020) vs buying out Lucic (June of 2021 before the expansion draft). The only major difference is the 22/23 season. Maybe the Oilers just wait to buy Lucic out in June of 21 to avoid the NMC and being forced to protect him? So in this case, they live with him for 4 more season after this year. 2 seasons with him on the roster and 2 more with him gone but a buy out cap hit that is still significant

 

[Habs Halifax]

You can also go to a Ferrari dealer and offer up your beat up econobox for it... Its their problem if they want to sell it, but they still probably won't do it.

In reality, the payback for swappong Alzners with Lucic's contract is probably closer to a 2nd round pick in value than one of the most valuable assets in the league (IE a lottery pick.)

Difference between ...

9th OA pick
vs
2nd (50th range) and Lehkonen?

I say the 9th OA pick is worth more but I also say Lucic's contract is much worse than Alzner's. Call it close to even when you factor it all in

Just stop with your lottery pick talk. I'm not asking the Oilers to trade a top 3 pick. That's more disingenuous talk. Do I need to remind you that this trade happens on draft day after we know what pick the Oilers will have and what is available when they pick? It's not rocket science

Is your idea of a fair value being Alzner for Lucic and only getting a 2nd? Am I reading this correctly? I honestly don't think you know the differences between Alzner's contract and Lucic's in terms of future problems.

 

[Vachon23]

The best thing to do whit Alzner is wait to buying out him next summer. He is a GREAT leader in Laval and he is a 2nd coach there. With Brook Fleury there next year it can be positif to have him there

 

[Runner77]

The best thing to do whit Alzner is wait to buying out him next summer. He is a GREAT leader in Laval and he is a 2nd coach there. With Brook Fleury there next year it can be positif to have him there

I was pleasantly surprised about how well Alzner handled his demotion. He's made the best of the situation and that will only allow MB more time to make the right move.

 

[MC94]

I'm not trying to be desperate for Lucic. I'm trying to take advantage. Let me re-post the deal I would do...

- Lucic (waives his NMC)
- Oilers 1st (9th OA at the moment). Of course the deal is squashed if they get a lottery pick
for
- Alzner (Buy out friendly after next season)
- Lehkonen and a 2nd (other pieces that could be part of the package is Ikonen and McShane).

Habs still have lots of cap space after this move.... something like $12M ish with a $83M cap. Remember, we don't have to re-sign Lehkonen cause he is with the Oilers after this trade.

If the Oilers really want to move Lucic and the Habs are on his small selective teams he would waive for, we have the upper hand. If they say no to the base of this packaged deal... sure, let them drown with Lucic

Its a good thing Weise didnt pan out or this trade would be impossible lol

 

[HuGo Sham]

Who considers this move?

Our 1st (15th +/-) for Leddy?

absolutely not