Trade Ideas and Free Agency XXVIII

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Bazeek

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Going back to the Strome discussion. If you were confident he could be a 20 goal 40 point guy playing 15 a night between Coyle and Greenway, would you give up a 1st for him?
I'd be tempted. A 21 year old, 20g/40p 3C that still has room to develop would help to fill a real need going forward. Of course you'd hope that Ek could do roughly the same thing, but having two of those guys wouldn't be bad.

Losing a first is never fun, but if you figured he could contribute this year... worth considering.
 

Wabit

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1. Dylan Strome. Not Ryan
2. It's a hypothetical question where he is a 40 point player, so the comment about Ek is pointless.
3. Anything is possible in a long season, but you're not paying attention if you're not confident in this team.

The first part was about Dylan. 21/22 yo, year left on his ELC, etc. I'd spend a 20 something pick on him, but I wouldn't risk a lottery ticket on him.

I see Dub stealing games more than the team winning them. ENG's are bloating the scores for a lot of these games. The 80% (or something like that) rate of winning when giving up the first goal isn't sustainable for a full season. The PP is dreadful more often than not.

I'm not spending a 1st on Ryan Strome under the same 20g/20a hypothetical situation. The same as I wouldn't spend a 1st on Coyle as a 20g/20a guy.
 

ThatGuy22

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The first part was about Dylan. 21/22 yo, year left on his ELC, etc. I'd spend a 20 something pick on him, but I wouldn't risk a lottery ticket on him.

I see Dub stealing games more than the team winning them. ENG's are bloating the scores for a lot of these games. The 80% (or something like that) rate of winning when giving up the first goal isn't sustainable for a full season. The PP is dreadful more often than not.

I'm not spending a 1st on Ryan Strome under the same 20g/20a hypothetical situation. The same as I wouldn't spend a 1st on Coyle as a 20g/20a guy.

You act like we're the only team getting empty net goals and we don't get them against., based on a quick review of our games (doesn't seem to be a good way to find out EN goals) we've scored 5 empty net goals, and had 4 empty net goals scored against us.

We're a whopping + 1 in EN goals. Nashville is + 7. Ours our not extreme in anyway.

And while the 80% rate of winning after first goal is indeed flukey, it's entirely possible (or even likely) that the small sample size fluke is that they other team is scoring first at a high rate. Not that we're winning.

The underlying numbers say the same thing as they have the last two years. We're a team that excels at suppressing quality shots and is above average at generating them while making life extremely easy on our goalie. That leads to winning and a 100+ point team if we stay relatively healthy. There is nothing flukey about our record because it's basically what's happened the last two years with the same underlying numbers.
 

Wabit

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You act like we're the only team getting empty net goals and we don't get them against., based on a quick review of our games (doesn't seem to be a good way to find out EN goals) we've scored 5 empty net goals, and had 4 empty net goals scored against us.

We're a whopping + 1 in EN goals. Nashville is + 7. Ours our not extreme in anyway.

And while the 80% rate of winning after first goal is indeed flukey, it's entirely possible (or even likely) that the small sample size fluke is that they other team is scoring first at a high rate. Not that we're winning.

The underlying numbers say the same thing as they have the last two years. We're a team that excels at suppressing quality shots and is above average at generating them while making life extremely easy on our goalie. That leads to winning and a 100+ point team if we stay relatively healthy. There is nothing flukey about our record because it's basically what's happened the last two years with the same underlying numbers.

Well a 4-1 game with 2 ENG looks a lot different than 2-1 score. All I'm saying is we're not blowing tams out or even playing with anything more than a 1g lead most of the time. Dub has been playing well above his career numbers most nights. If he was playing at his MN career .923 sv% he would have allowed 4 more goals, and the Wild have been in a lot of 1g games until ENG's happen (both ways). I also think they've had a favorable schedule for opponents so far.

I just see a regression coming and think it will hit hard. I don't see this as being the 3rd best team (based on current P%) in the league; same as I don't see MTL (7th), BUF (10th), and the Caps (19th) ending where they currently are.
 

ThatGuy22

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Well a 4-1 game with 2 ENG looks a lot different than 2-1 score. All I'm saying is we're not blowing tams out or even playing with anything more than a 1g lead most of the time. Dub has been playing well above his career numbers most nights. If he was playing at his MN career .923 sv% he would have allowed 4 more goals, and the Wild have been in a lot of 1g games until ENG's happen (both ways). I also think they've had a favorable schedule for opponents so far.

I just see a regression coming and think it will hit hard. I don't see this as being the 3rd best team (based on current P%) in the league; same as I don't see MTL (7th), BUF (10th), and the Caps (19th) ending where they currently are.

You see what you want to see. You're pinning your regression opinion on things that happen basically league wide, and assigning its value as unique to us.

It's the NHL, there are just a lot of 1 goal games in general. How many more goals would Pekke Rinne have let in without his .950% or Fredrick Anderson with his .930%. His dsv% (difference between expected save percentage and save percentage) is 19th in the league. He has the 2nd highest expected save percentage in the league. He's playing well, but largely the Wild make life really easy on him.

We've got 53 xGF% and climbing quickly (5th in the league, we'll be in the top 2 by end of the month I'd bet). We're getting 56% of the High danger scoring chances, 53% of the scoring chances in general.

We're doing literally exactly what we did last year while extremely banged up and got 100 points, and what we did the year before when healthy and had 106 points.

So why would things be different now, with the exact same process getting the exact same results. Why should we all of a sudden expect different results than we've been getting in for 2.25 years now under BB.
 

kfan22

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The way Granlund is playing the thought of him and Panarin together on the same line together is delicious! I know never going to happen but a guy can dream cant he?
 

Wabit

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You see what you want to see. You're pinning your regression opinion on things that happen basically league wide, and assigning its value as unique to us.

It's the NHL, there are just a lot of 1 goal games in general. How many more goals would Pekke Rinne have let in without his .950% or Fredrick Anderson with his .930%. His dsv% (difference between expected save percentage and save percentage) is 19th in the league. He has the 2nd highest expected save percentage in the league. He's playing well, but largely the Wild make life really easy on him.

We've got 53 xGF% and climbing quickly (5th in the league, we'll be in the top 2 by end of the month I'd bet). We're getting 56% of the High danger scoring chances, 53% of the scoring chances in general.

We're doing literally exactly what we did last year while extremely banged up and got 100 points, and what we did the year before when healthy and had 106 points.

So why would things be different now, with the exact same process getting the exact same results. Why should we all of a sudden expect different results than we've been getting in for 2.25 years now under BB.

I'm not assigning any value unique to MN. I'm looking at the league wide stats for a few things. Since the lockout full seasons (nhl.com stats):
- 4 out of 151 teams had a win% when the opponent scores first of .500 or better.
- 9 of 151 teams had 20 or more wins when the opponent scored first. The highest being 23. The Wild already have 8 wins so far this year.
- 145 of 151 teams have .500 or better record when scoring first.
- the previous 2 seasons under BB 15 and 14 wins when giving up the first goal; and win% of .375 and .412.
-Wild have scored first in 5 of their 17 games.

Dub:
-GSAA is already at 9.97, his best year under BB was 18.41.
-his 74 GA% is 17 points lower (low is good) than his 91 average under BB.
-his .933 Sv% is 12 points higher than the .921 he's averaged under BB the last 2 years.
 

ThatGuy22

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I'm not assigning any value unique to MN. I'm looking at the league wide stats for a few things. Since the lockout full seasons (nhl.com stats):
- 4 out of 151 teams had a win% when the opponent scores first of .500 or better.
- 9 of 151 teams had 20 or more wins when the opponent scored first. The highest being 23. The Wild already have 8 wins so far this year.
- 145 of 151 teams have .500 or better record when scoring first.
- the previous 2 seasons under BB 15 and 14 wins when giving up the first goal; and win% of .375 and .412.
-Wild have scored first in 5 of their 17 games.

Dub:
-GSAA is already at 9.97, his best year under BB was 18.41.
-his 74 GA% is 17 points lower (low is good) than his 91 average under BB.
-his .933 Sv% is 12 points higher than the .921 he's averaged under BB the last 2 years.

I'm not sure where your numbers are from, Corsica has his GSAA at 2.81. 15th in the league. Again, good but not out of the world. Looks like NST has a much higher number, my guess would be NST is based on corsi somehow while Corsica is based on expected goals. I tend to believe expected goals with regards to the Wild, as they kind of break "corsi" with their entire team strategy.

I honestly don't know what 74 GA% means, or where that comes from.

I think the flukey aspect is who is scoring first more than anything. Only scoring first in 5 out of 17 is what screams fluke to me, not that the Wild have a good playoff bound record. The Wild's record is more or less what they should be given how they've controlled quality. It's a little on the high end, they aren't a 115 point team. Probably closer to 105 to 110 point team if they stay reasonably healthy.

But to be concerned about missing the playoffs is silly or expecting a massive regression based on the other team scoring first a weird amount is silly. The vast majority of the numbers don't support it.
 

DANOZ28

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for the sake of comparing how does nylander compare to drouin? i still think we should atleast throw our hat in the ring for either nylander or panarin just not overpay.
 

ThatGuy22

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I'm not assigning any value unique to MN. I'm looking at the league wide stats for a few things. Since the lockout full seasons (nhl.com stats):
- 4 out of 151 teams had a win% when the opponent scores first of .500 or better.
- 9 of 151 teams had 20 or more wins when the opponent scored first. The highest being 23. The Wild already have 8 wins so far this year.
- 145 of 151 teams have .500 or better record when scoring first.
- the previous 2 seasons under BB 15 and 14 wins when giving up the first goal; and win% of .375 and .412.
-Wild have scored first in 5 of their 17 games.

Dub:
-GSAA is already at 9.97, his best year under BB was 18.41.
-his 74 GA% is 17 points lower (low is good) than his 91 average under BB.
-his .933 Sv% is 12 points higher than the .921 he's averaged under BB the last 2 years.

I should also note, that while their is a correlation with teams scoring first, there isn't really a causation. Announcers and media like to talk about it because it's a easy stat to understand, and it is generally in line with winning teams.

NHL wide, scoring the first goal leads to a win 66% of the time, but that's because "good" teams score roughly 2/3rds of the goals.

Scoring the 2nd and 3rd goals in a game also have identical 66% correlations with winning. So there isn't any particular value in scoring the 1st goal, it's just in basic probabilities that more 2/3 the time the better team scores first and the better team wins most the time.

Thats why I think it's flukey that we're not the one scoring first, rather than the result. The result supports the rest of the numbers that are more predictive in nature.

Here's Tlusky and Hohl on the subject (both of whom have been hired by NHL teams).
 

TaLoN

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Is it that surprising if Dubs' numbers are higher than his usual here considering this is the best defensive lineup this team has ever iced top to bottom?

Skaters in front of the goaltender have a very large impact on what the goaltender's numbers will look like.
 
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57special

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for the sake of comparing how does nylander compare to drouin? i still think we should atleast throw our hat in the ring for either nylander or panarin just not overpay.
To my mind Nylander is significantly more valuable. He is bigger, faster, younger, and just as skilled as Drouin. It's hard to say how good he is, however, and even harder to say how good he will end up being. Ehlers is closest comp, for me. A really, really exciting player with speed and offensive flair, but not a player that you build a team around. In other words, I wouldn't expect him to be be much more effective than a Zucker presently is...which is not a bad thing, I'd love another Zucker...but you only want to pay so much for one. The intriguing thing about Nylander is if he ends up being similar to Granlund, but with bigger and faster.

I just don't know if the guy has the heart and grit that a player like Granlund, or Spurgeon, has. To me a guy like Drouin, for whatever reason just doesn't have "it". Would be a drag to pay a ton for a Nylander, both in trade and in signing him long term, then find out he is another Drouin.

Panarin is a much higher end player, but I doubt he would be much more than a rental, and the Wild would have to keep that in mind when they make an offer. If he agrees to sign a new contract with the Wild before the trade is made....well that's a whole different thing.

If MN does trade Spurgeon for Nylander, then it will make us a worse team for now, and probably the next few years. Will also cost us in cap, and might be the difference in us re-signing a guy like Staaal....not the end of the world, but let's not kid ourselves that he will be next to impossible to replace. The reason we do that deal is if Nylander improves, and becomes a 75 pt. C, rather than a 60 pt. winger.

It's a gamble.

I don't want Drouin on this team, at all.
 

Wabit

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To my mind Nylander is significantly more valuable. He is bigger, faster, younger, and just as skilled as Drouin. It's hard to say how good he is, however, and even harder to say how good he will end up being. Ehlers is closest comp, for me. A really, really exciting player with speed and offensive flair, but not a player that you build a team around. In other words, I wouldn't expect him to be be much more effective than a Zucker presently is...which is not a bad thing, I'd love another Zucker...but you only want to pay so much for one. The intriguing thing about Nylander is if he ends up being similar to Granlund, but with bigger and faster.

I just don't know if the guy has the heart and grit that a player like Granlund, or Spurgeon, has. To me a guy like Drouin, for whatever reason just doesn't have "it". Would be a drag to pay a ton for a Nylander, both in trade and in signing him long term, then find out he is another Drouin.

Panarin is a much higher end player, but I doubt he would be much more than a rental, and the Wild would have to keep that in mind when they make an offer. If he agrees to sign a new contract with the Wild before the trade is made....well that's a whole different thing.

If MN does trade Spurgeon for Nylander, then it will make us a worse team for now, and probably the next few years. Will also cost us in cap, and might be the difference in us re-signing a guy like Staaal....not the end of the world, but let's not kid ourselves that he will be next to impossible to replace. The reason we do that deal is if Nylander improves, and becomes a 75 pt. C, rather than a 60 pt. winger.

It's a gamble.

I don't want Drouin on this team, at all.

Listed height/weight/age (grain of salt needed?):
Drouin: 6'0" 193 lbs. 23-229 days
Nylander: 6'0" 191 lbs. 22-195 days

I didn't want Drouin a couple of years ago, and I don't want Nylander now for the same (and more) reasons. Center is the need for the team, not another good but not great wing. Drouin's AAV is a fair deal, I don't think Nylander's AAV will be a good deal at all. I also didn't like the price tag in trade for Drouin, and I really don't like Nylander's rumored return now. I think both were beneficiaries of playing with better players, and it inflated their value.

Panarin would be great to have, but I think he's a pure rental and moves on after the season. Anything short of the winning the Cup makes his price something the Wild really can't afford. He's an all in, future consequences be damned, type of move.
 

Wabit

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I was thinking about it and I really hope CBJ holds on to Panarin and goes for it this year. If they are sellers the Blues will probably end up with Bobrovsky and become dangerous.

As much as I'd like Duchene or Stone OTT needs to be as good as possible, just so Col doesn't end up with a top-5 pick from them.

Toffoli (LA) and Nyquist (DET) are a couple of guys I'm kind of interested in kicking the tires on. I'm saying this with no clue on their cost to acquire. I could hate the price-tag and forget about them completely.
 

nt3005

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I was thinking about it and I really hope CBJ holds on to Panarin and goes for it this year. If they are sellers the Blues will probably end up with Bobrovsky and become dangerous.

As much as I'd like Duchene or Stone OTT needs to be as good as possible, just so Col doesn't end up with a top-5 pick from them.

Toffoli (LA) and Nyquist (DET) are a couple of guys I'm kind of interested in kicking the tires on. I'm saying this with no clue on their cost to acquire. I could hate the price-tag and forget about them completely.

During the Game against the Kings I was wondering what it would take to get Toffoli, I really have no clue what the value is on him. He hasn't looked very good lately, but that whole team has been bad.

I hope GMPF is looking around for some sort of center 30 or under, our future at center is really bad.
 

Bazeek

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I was thinking about it and I really hope CBJ holds on to Panarin and goes for it this year. If they are sellers the Blues will probably end up with Bobrovsky and become dangerous.

As much as I'd like Duchene or Stone OTT needs to be as good as possible, just so Col doesn't end up with a top-5 pick from them.

Toffoli (LA) and Nyquist (DET) are a couple of guys I'm kind of interested in kicking the tires on. I'm saying this with no clue on their cost to acquire. I could hate the price-tag and forget about them completely.

During the Game against the Kings I was wondering what it would take to get Toffoli, I really have no clue what the value is on him. He hasn't looked very good lately, but that whole team has been bad.

I hope GMPF is looking around for some sort of center 30 or under, our future at center is really bad.
It's hard to see the Toffoli/Nyquist/etc. winger options as any better than what we already have. Unless one figured Toffoli could be a factor in the playoffs, but he hasn't been for the Kings since 2014.
 

Wabit

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During the Game against the Kings I was wondering what it would take to get Toffoli, I really have no clue what the value is on him. He hasn't looked very good lately, but that whole team has been bad.

I hope GMPF is looking around for some sort of center 30 or under, our future at center is really bad.

This pretty much sums up the entire existence (minus the GMPF part) of the Wild.

LA is in a weird spot, a lot of 30+ guys that are still good, but not what they were during their Cup runs. They'd probably give Pearson away if anyone would take him.

Carter is the player I'd like to get but his contract length and age is just too much for me.
 

nt3005

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We are in a different position to trade.

With how the team is playing, its hard to justify trading away players on the team, unless its a clear upgrade. But an upgrade is going to downgrade us somewhere else.
 

Wabit

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It's hard to see the Toffoli/Nyquist/etc. winger options as any better than what we already have. Unless one figured Toffoli could be a factor in the playoffs, but he hasn't been for the Kings since 2014.

Toffoli would add a RHS scoring wing to the team. Both of them are currently better options than JEE and Greenway; both have lots of room to grow, but they aren't 40p players yet. It would also be nice to have some legitimate depth for when injures happen. This is more just spit-balling some different names other than Nylander and the Sprong type of projects.

I'd prefer to get a center, but the Wild aren't allowed to have nice things like that.
 

Bazeek

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Toffoli would add a RHS scoring wing to the team. Both of them are currently better options than JEE and Greenway; both have lots of room to grow, but they aren't 40p players yet. It would also be nice to have some legitimate depth for when injures happen. This is more just spit-balling some different names other than Nylander and the Sprong type of projects.

I'd prefer to get a center, but the Wild aren't allowed to have nice things like that.
Both Toffoli and Nyquist have contracts that would require a $2m+ contract going back, don't they? Assuming there's no retention.
 

Wabit

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Both Toffoli and Nyquist have contracts that would require a $2m+ contract going back, don't they? Assuming there's no retention.

Depends when the trade is made. According to Capfriendly: they are looking at ~$11m in deadline cap space, or could add a ~$3m contract today and still be cap compliant for the rest of the year.

Minnesota Wild - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

They also could send a couple of players to Iowa and open up some cap space that way.
 

Bazeek

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Depends when the trade is made. According to Capfriendly: they are looking at ~$11m in deadline cap space, or could add a ~$3m contract today and still be cap compliant for the rest of the year.

Minnesota Wild - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

They also could send a couple of players to Iowa and open up some cap space that way.
Interesting. I'm not sure that I'd want to pay the price on either, but it's not an option to dismiss out of hand.
 

Wabit

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Interesting. I'm not sure that I'd want to pay the price on either, but it's not an option to dismiss out of hand.

Not counting pennies to make the cap work is weird for MN; they've been so tight against it the last few years. Now they have some breathing room, so it doesn't have to be and even cap hit trade.

I don't know what the price/availability on either of these players, they haven't really been tossed around as trade bait. I'm not really even a fan of Nyquist tbh.
 

57special

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What I don't want to do is a trade for a decent, but unremarkable middle sixer in exchange for picks and prospects. We've sent away too many picks over the years.
 

2Pair

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We probably shouldn't trade now for fear of messing up the team chemistry.
There's no reason to try and make a major roster changing trade, but if you can pluck a young forward, more so a center, then now is a perfect time to do so.
 
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