Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency XXVII

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Wabit

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May 23, 2016
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For the umpteenth time, it's not a rental. Lou will give Fenton access to Lee's camp once they agree on the trade but before the trade call is made, and the trade literally never happens if Lee and the Wild cannot come to an agreement on an extension. Just like Poile would've never made the Turris deal if they hadn't reached an extension agreement pre-trade. How is this so ****ing difficult for you?

Because you're still overpaying for Lee should get as a return. He's simply not worth, on the open market, 2 1sts and a middle-6 NHL player. You're paying cash, over sticker price, at an auto dealer at that point.

Don't be a Chairelli, be a Yzerman.
 
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Wabit

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The gamble on our part is why they add. I don't think re-signing Strome is too important.

4oa (right or wrong) still on his ELC holds a lot of value especially to GMs. It's really not that big of a gamble that the current trade turns out at least fair in the longrun.

Not to mention that Chairelli has to "win" the trade if he trades Larsson (the guy he traded away the league MVP to get). No matter how it breaks down it'll look like Larsson for either Spurgeon/Zucker and Poolparty+1st for the other. And EDM fans will look at it as Spurgeon/Zucker for Hall. Tough sell for him.
 

absolute garbage

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Because you're still overpaying for Lee should get as a return. He's simply not worth, on the open market, 2 1sts and a middle-6 NHL player. You're paying cash, over sticker price, at an auto dealer at that point.

Don't be a Chairelli, be a Yzerman.
I realize some GMs are idiots. But for the purpose of these discussions, I'm trying to come up with a fair value trade for all teams involved.

I'm not sure about that. 2019 1st rounder (remember that Edmonton team has Zucker and Spurgeon, they should make the playoffs), Coyle and a good but not great prospect (both have their question marks) for a guy like Lee (he's scored the 5th most goals in the NHL over last two seasons) seems pretty reasonable to me. It's not that much different from the ROR trade for example. You could throw in Foligno there too as a cap dump to make it better for the Wild.

I can see the Tavares argument though. Maybe the trade could be doable without adding Kaprizov/Kunin.
 

Wabit

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I realize some GMs are idiots. But for the purpose of these discussions, I'm trying to come up with a fair value trade for all teams involved.

I'm not sure about that. 2019 1st rounder (remember that Edmonton team has Zucker and Spurgeon, they should make the playoffs), Coyle and a good but not great prospect (both have their question marks) for a guy like Lee (he's scored the 5th most goals in the NHL over last two seasons) seems pretty reasonable to me. It's not that much different from the ROR trade for example. You could throw in Foligno there too as a cap dump to make it better for the Wild.

I can see the Tavares argument though. Maybe the trade could be doable without adding Kaprizov/Kunin.

ROR is a better player at a more important position than Lee too. Lee had a big season, but Tavares has made a lot of wings look better than they really were.

Coyle+1st is much closer, Coyle+2nd is something I can get behind. Make it a conditional 2nd that turns into a 1st if Lee re-signs or hits some benchmark.
 

SupremeNachos

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Dec 6, 2011
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The offer sheet talk that usually happens this time of year always makes me think of people discussing the best way to fight a unicorn.
400px-Liopleurodon_PaintRegion5.jpg
 

57special

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So, Folin just got signed for one year with PHI. Don't see why we weren't in on that rather than Pateryn. Don't know what Folin got, but he's bound to be much cheaper.
 

2Pair

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So, Folin just got signed for one year with PHI. Don't see why we weren't in on that rather than Pateryn. Don't know what Folin got, but he's bound to be much cheaper.
One guy is a 4 and the other is a 6 or 7.
 

ThatGuy22

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4oa (right or wrong) still on his ELC holds a lot of value especially to GMs. It's really not that big of a gamble that the current trade turns out at least fair in the longrun.

Not to mention that Chairelli has to "win" the trade if he trades Larsson (the guy he traded away the league MVP to get). No matter how it breaks down it'll look like Larsson for either Spurgeon/Zucker and Poolparty+1st for the other. And EDM fans will look at it as Spurgeon/Zucker for Hall. Tough sell for him.

Either of those plays for Hall is a better return than Larsson for Hall.

Larsson is a mediocre #4 who's living on draft status and fans trying to rationalize he's better than he is because Hall got traded for him.
 
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ThatGuy22

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Something went bad between Folin and the Wild last year, otherwise he would still be here.

I don't think anything went bad. I don't think it's any more complicated than Folin would have accepted his QO of a one way deal for 900k and Fletcher didn't want to get locked into that (even though it would have been 1000% times better than signing Quincy to replace him).
 

2Pair

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I don't think anything went bad. I don't think it's any more complicated than Folin would have accepted his QO of a one way deal for 900k and Fletcher didn't want to get locked into that (even though it would have been 1000% times better than signing Quincy to replace him).
There's zero reason not to give a guy like Folin 900K. Makes no sense to let him go over money. Worst possible scenario is he gets waived. Either Folin wanted out of Minnesota, or somebody in Minnesota didn't want him back.
 

ThatGuy22

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There's zero reason not to give a guy like Folin 900K. Makes no sense to let him go over money. Worst possible scenario is he gets waived. Either Folin wanted out of Minnesota, or somebody in Minnesota didn't want him back.

Excuse me, I mis remembered. It wasn't that he would accept the QO. It was that he would have taken them to arbitration, and there were a number of comparables that would have got him in the 1.25 - 1.5 million range. (Chariot, Ouellet, Marincin) putting the Wild in a poor negotiating position or a position to pay him too much.

Given how tight the cap was, and Fletcher deciding to go with Oloffsson/Rielly he obviously wanted a vet on the other side.(stupid quincey)

from Russo at the time.

The Wild did not tender qualifying offers to Christian Folin, Brady Brassart, Alex Gudbranson and Guillaume Gelinas.
The Wild would still like to sign Folin to a two-way contract, but at this point, one would think the big defenseman will test free agency when the market opens Saturday to see if he can get a one-way contract.

Maybe Folin does hold hard feelings, but I don't think there were any on the Wild's side. It was just business from their perspective. They didn't want him in the 1.25 - 1.5 million range, and he probably could of got it had they qualified him.
 

2Pair

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Excuse me, I mis remembered. It wasn't that he would accept the QO. It was that he would have taken them to arbitration, and there were a number of comparables that would have got him in the 1.25 - 1.5 million range. (Chariot, Ouellet, Marincin) putting the Wild in a poor negotiating position or a position to pay him too much.

Given how tight the cap was, and Fletcher deciding to go with Oloffsson/Rielly he obviously wanted a vet on the other side.(stupid quincey)

from Russo at the time.



Maybe Folin does hold hard feelings, but I don't think there were any on the Wild's side. It was just business from their perspective. They didn't want him in the 1.25 - 1.5 million range, and he probably could of got it had they qualified him.
That's a fairly weak attempt by Russo to try and rationalize the situation, but even then, deciding not to qualify him has no bearing on being able to sign him to a contract. Folin signed for 850K about 3 minutes into free agency. Signing Folin for 1 year at 850K would've been a no-brainer for Fletcher. If there was mutual interest between him and Minnesota to get something done, soemthing would've gotten done.
 

ThatGuy22

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There are two parts to the Folin equation, and they can't really be separated IMHO.

First part, Wild wanted a vet for the right side to go opposite Rielly/Olofsson. I think that's relatively indisputable. They targeted Quincey and made that happen quickly day one of Free Agency. I think we could all agree that was terrible decision making by Fletcher, but it's the decision they made. Which limited Folin's potential role in theory, and what the Wild would be willing to pay him.

Which brings us to the second part. I mean, agents aren't stupid. For the Wild to get Folin last year, on a one year deal they'd need to go towards what he had leverage to get via Arbitration. So 1 year at 850k wasn't going to happen in MN. The Wild than non qualified him to take away that leverage.

At which point, regardless of how you felt about your time in MN, if you're Folin and his agent you are on the doorstep to UFA, you're going to atleast test the waters and see if there is a team that doesn't have Spurgeon/Dumba standing in your way. And he seemed to have found that abit in LA were he had a bit larger role, and was healthy scratched less often than he was in MN (He was also on IR for 3 weeks or so but largely he was in the lineup when he was healthy).

Any tangible knowledge out there on how last offseason went points to this being strictly business, despite Fletcher's poor decision making. There were zero rumblings or rumors about a rift or bad blood.
 

2Pair

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There are two parts to the Folin equation, and they can't really be separated IMHO.

First part, Wild wanted a vet for the right side to go opposite Rielly/Olofsson. I think that's relatively indisputable. They targeted Quincey and made that happen quickly day one of Free Agency. I think we could all agree that was terrible decision making by Fletcher, but it's the decision they made. Which limited Folin's potential role in theory, and what the Wild would be willing to pay him.

Which brings us to the second part. I mean, agents aren't stupid. For the Wild to get Folin last year, on a one year deal they'd need to go towards what he had leverage to get via Arbitration. So 1 year at 850k wasn't going to happen in MN. The Wild than non qualified him to take away that leverage.

At which point, regardless of how you felt about your time in MN, if you're Folin and his agent you are on the doorstep to UFA, you're going to atleast test the waters and see if there is a team that doesn't have Spurgeon/Dumba standing in your way. And he seemed to have found that abit in LA were he had a bit larger role, and was healthy scratched less often than he was in MN (He was also on IR for 3 weeks or so but largely he was in the lineup when he was healthy).

Any tangible knowledge out there on how last offseason went points to this being strictly business, despite Fletcher's poor decision making. There were zero rumblings or rumors about a rift or bad blood.

1st paragraph- Makes perfect sense to me, but that means that Minnesota didn't want him back. No?

2nd paragraph- Why wouldn't 850K in Minnesota work? That's what he accepted from LA. This idea doesn't work at all if the theory is that Folin only left Minnesota because of financial reasons.

3rd paragraph- basically the same as above. Folin signed in LA for 850K. Folin signed his deal before Fletcher had signed Kyle Quincey. Signing Folin for 850K instead of paying Quincey $1.2M should've been an easy decision for Fletcher. If Fletcher would take Folin at 850K and Folin would prefer to pay for Minnesota over LA, then what happened?
 

Dr Jan Itor

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1st paragraph- Makes perfect sense to me, but that means that Minnesota didn't want him back. No?

2nd paragraph- Why wouldn't 850K in Minnesota work? That's what he accepted from LA. This idea doesn't work at all if the theory is that Folin only left Minnesota because of financial reasons.

3rd paragraph- basically the same as above. Folin signed in LA for 850K. Folin signed his deal before Fletcher had signed Kyle Quincey. Signing Folin for 850K instead of paying Quincey $1.2M should've been an easy decision for Fletcher. If Fletcher would take Folin at 850K and Folin would prefer to pay for Minnesota over LA, then what happened?

Because they wanted a veteran to play next to either Reilly or Olofsson. They just chose the very, very, very wrong veteran.
 
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2Pair

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Because they wanted a veteran to play next to either Reilly or Olofsson. They just chose the very, very, very wrong veteran.
I'm not disputing that at all. I was just disputing the thought that the Wild lost Folin because they couldn't afford him.
 

Wabit

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They didn't re-sign Folin because he shaved off his beard and GMCF realized that he really didn't have Thor.
 

ThatGuy22

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1st paragraph- Makes perfect sense to me, but that means that Minnesota didn't want him back. No?

2nd paragraph- Why wouldn't 850K in Minnesota work? That's what he accepted from LA. This idea doesn't work at all if the theory is that Folin only left Minnesota because of financial reasons.

3rd paragraph- basically the same as above. Folin signed in LA for 850K. Folin signed his deal before Fletcher had signed Kyle Quincey. Signing Folin for 850K instead of paying Quincey $1.2M should've been an easy decision for Fletcher. If Fletcher would take Folin at 850K and Folin would prefer to pay for Minnesota over LA, then what happened?

I'm not trying to defend the decision making of Fletcher/co during that stretch, because they dropped the ball and huge. I'm just arguing it was (poor) business/hockey decisions, and not bad blood.

First Bold- I think it's clear they didn't want him as a borderline every day player on the third pair, and they didn't want to pay him as such (the 1.25m - 1.5m he had leverage to get via Arb). I think they absolutely would have wanted him back on a deal that was two way or even the 850k he eventually signed. But we've got zero idea what kind of sweet nothing's LA was whispering in his ear come the UFA talking period about proposed role and opportunity, and once Folin is a UFA he's bound to do what he thinks is best for his career. He had an idea of what his role would be in MN from past experience/contract negotiations.

Second Bold- 850k probably would have worked for MN, but the problem is to get to that 1 year and 850K contract, Folin had to be come a UFA to determine his true market value. Because he had the leverage to get more as an RFA (as strange as it sounds). And once he becomes a UFA, all bets are off and any team can woo him. Again, not an indicator of bad blood.

Third Bold- He might have preferred LA once he hit UFA based on their pitch. That doesnt' mean something bad happened between the Wild and Folin. It means once the Wild made the shitty hockey/business decision they made to get a vet for third pairing and the ripple effect that had, Folin made the business decision that he felt was best for him and his career.
 

2Pair

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I'm not trying to defend the decision making of Fletcher/co during that stretch, because they dropped the ball and huge. I'm just arguing it was (poor) business/hockey decisions, and not bad blood.

First Bold- I think it's clear they didn't want him as a borderline every day player on the third pair, and they didn't want to pay him as such (the 1.25m - 1.5m he had leverage to get via Arb). I think they absolutely would have wanted him back on a deal that was two way or even the 850k he eventually signed. But we've got zero idea what kind of sweet nothing's LA was whispering in his ear come the UFA talking period about proposed role and opportunity, and once Folin is a UFA he's bound to do what he thinks is best for his career. He had an idea of what his role would be in MN from past experience/contract negotiations.

Second Bold- 850k probably would have worked for MN, but the problem is to get to that 1 year and 850K contract, Folin had to be come a UFA to determine his true market value. Because he had the leverage to get more as an RFA (as strange as it sounds). And once he becomes a UFA, all bets are off and any team can woo him. Again, not an indicator of bad blood.

Third Bold- He might have preferred LA once he hit UFA based on their pitch. That doesnt' mean something bad happened between the Wild and Folin. It means once the Wild made the ****ty hockey/business decision they made to get a vet for third pairing and the ripple effect that had, Folin made the business decision that he felt was best for him and his career.
I wasn't trying to imply "bad blood" or that it got to the point that anybody was angry. What I meant by saying "something went bad" is simply that at some point, one side decided that they didn't want to keep the other. I don't really disagree with any of your points, other than the QO having any effect on being able to sign him.
 

tomgilbertfan

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Jun 22, 2008
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From Russo's mailbag

There is no doubt that general manager Paul Fenton will continue to attempt to make an impactful trade, but yes, typically after July 1, we always hear that teams want to make a big trade, but they rarely happen ...typically, at this point, teams go into training camp with their roster intact.

...

But as of now, I genuinely believe (and this is conjecture) that the value of some of the players Fenton has tried to trade hasn’t been as great as he had hoped.

...

So, if it takes Fenton until in-season or the trade deadline to make a significant change, so be it. It actually may be more prudent at this point for him, as the GM, to get his eyes on his cast for the first time before making a big trade. Because the one thing I do know: He needs to make the right trade or trades, not just trades for the sake of making trades to appease an understandably frustrated fan base. Again, I believe he’s still trying to make a trade, but I’m less convinced than I was a month ago that it’s going to happen.

Ask Russo: When will the Wild make a trade? Who are they...
 

nickschultzfan

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Fletcher letting Folin go and betting on Quincey, Olofosson, and Reilly had an immediate impact on the Wild going into the next season. Quincey was single-handily responsible for at least half a dozen losses. Folin actually has some upside too. He would actual be a serviceable trigger-man on a 2nd PP. His bomb was massive.
 

57special

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Fletcher letting Folin go and betting on Quincey, Olofosson, and Reilly had an immediate impact on the Wild going into the next season. Quincey was single-handily responsible for at least half a dozen losses. Folin actually has some upside too. He would actual be a serviceable trigger-man on a 2nd PP. His bomb was massive.
You have such a mancrush on Folin.

Not that there is anything wrong with that.
 
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