Trade Help

[Grill Daddy]

Kucherov and Larkin

For

Tavares and K Connor

I'd be getting Tavares and Connor

Thanks

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[Brockon]

Nope.

Assuming it's a point only 1 year league, because you fail to specify otherwise, Kuch is trending towards a top 5 finish in points.

The drop off from Kuch to Tavares (Tavares with less points than Kuch has assists!) is far greater than the drop off from Connor to Larkin (which looks to be a wash presently).

Marner and Tavares have slowed now that Matthews is healthy - I can't see Tavares finishing within 10 points of Kuch's totals barring injury. Again, barring injury, Connor and Larkin finish within 10 points of each other (and likely 5).

So unless there are multiple scoring categories to weigh, this trade starts and ends with Kucherov.

 

[Son of Petter]

You don’t trade Kuch.

 

[td_ice]

Can't go wrong with either side, but I would keep Kuch side.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Kuch and Larkin I'd keep

 

[Grill Daddy]

Nope.

Assuming it's a point only 1 year league, because you fail to specify otherwise, Kuch is trending towards a top 5 finish in points.

The drop off from Kuch to Tavares (Tavares with less points than Kuch has assists!) is far greater than the drop off from Connor to Larkin (which looks to be a wash presently).

Marner and Tavares have slowed now that Matthews is healthy - I can't see Tavares finishing within 10 points of Kuch's totals barring injury. Again, barring injury, Connor and Larkin finish within 10 points of each other (and likely 5).

So unless there are multiple scoring categories to weigh, this trade starts and ends with Kucherov.

Thanks you're right I failed to specify scoring. It's 3 pts for g 2 pts for a + q per power play point + Partials for hits and blocks. +/- too.

It's also a keeper League where all 4 of these players would be within my keepers.

My intrigue was Connor over Larkin moving forward plus tavaTav goals and ppg.

I think I made the right choice tirnitu it down.

 

[Danythegod]

Kucherov is a beast and Larkin is becoming one as well. I say no

 

[Brockon]

Thanks you're right I failed to specify scoring. It's 3 pts for g 2 pts for a + q per power play point + Partials for hits and blocks. +/- too.

It's also a keeper League where all 4 of these players would be within my keepers.

My intrigue was Connor over Larkin moving forward plus tavaTav goals and ppg.

I think I made the right choice tirnitu it down.

Knowing the stats now, I still say that the trade lives and dies with Kuch - here are 2 images, one shows Kuch vs Tavares current stats (minus +/-, because my pool doesn't count +/-) and the other shows the projected numbers for the rest of the season.

Assuming 0.25 pts per hit/block, Kuch is currently 39.75 pts ahead of Tavares by the virtue of his PPP & A. He projects to gain another 16.75 pts for the remainder of the season for a total of 56.5 pts of added value (again highlighting the assummed 0.25 points per block/hit - Kuch gains value if it's 0.1 pts per hit/block).

Using 0.1 pt per hit/block, Kuch scores 44.3 pts ahead now, and projects another 30.7 pts ahead over the rest of the season for a gain of 75 pts total.

 

[Brockon]

Similarly for Larkin vs Connor, Larkin sits 11.25 pts ahead of Connor presently using 0.25 pts per hit/block (3.8 pts ahead using 0.1 pt per hit/block).

And over the remaining season projections Larkin gains 2.75 pts on Connor (again using 0.25 pts per hit/block - or he loses 3.75 pts on Connor using 0.1 pt per hit/block).

Total season Larkin sits 14 pts ahead of Connor with 0.25 pt per hit/block or he is dead even with 0.1 pt per hit/block.

 

[Brockon]

Knowing the stats now, I still say that the trade lives and dies with Kuch - here are 2 images, one shows Kuch vs Tavares current stats (minus +/-, because my pool doesn't count +/-) and the other shows the projected numbers for the rest of the season.

Assuming 0.25 pts per hit/block, Kuch is currently 39.75 pts ahead of Tavares by the virtue of his PPP & A. He projects to gain another 16.75 pts for the remainder of the season for a total of 56.5 pts of added value (again highlighting the assummed 0.25 points per block/hit - Kuch gains value if it's 0.1 pts per hit/block).

Using 0.1 pt per hit/block, Kuch scores 44.3 pts ahead now, and projects another 30.7 pts ahead over the rest of the season for a gain of 75 pts total.
View attachment 165405

Similarly for Larkin vs Connor, Larkin sits 11.25 pts ahead of Connor presently using 0.25 pts per hit/block (3.8 pts ahead using 0.1 pt per hit/block).

And over the remaining season projections Larkin gains 2.75 pts on Connor (again using 0.25 pts per hit/block - or he loses 3.75 pts on Connor using 0.1 pt per hit/block).

Total season Larkin sits 14 pts ahead of Connor with 0.25 pt per hit/block or he is dead even with 0.1 pt per hit/block.
View attachment 165423 View attachment 165425

So ignoring +/- (because I'm too lazy to factor it in, or make assumptions about the relative values) the two players combined give the Kuch/Larkin side a 70.5 pt lead on Tavares/Connor using 0.25 pts per hit/block.

The Kuch/Larkin side pulls ahead 75 pts if it's only 0.1 pt per hit/block.

Either way, the right decision was to decline. But, giving us values to work with allows people to quantify the difference and give you numbers to work with for proposing counter offers.