Value of: Trade deadline UFA for sale?

[Mrfenn92]

My opinion isn't only driven by advanced stats. I just think thins is a classic case of a player outperforming his career numbers by a good margin.

First of all, notice his shooting % this season is at 20.7%. That's 3 times his rate last year and double his career average. Considering that he has one of the worst muffin shots in the league I'd be shocked if he keeps that rate of scoring up.

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Secondly, notice that his TOI is up by 2-3 minutes compared to his time in Dallas. As shown in the charts below Janmark is also playing with 2nd line level linemates in Chicago compared to being a bottom 6 forward in Dallas last season.

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Possession metrics are also highly valued by GM's, and the fact that Janmark basically gets caved in everytime he's on the ice (which is what a sub-40% CF% indicates) isn't very appealing.

When assessing value you have to consider it from the perspective of a buying team. They aren't buying him to be a top 6 forward with the expectation that he's going to continue to shoot 20%. Rather, they'd be interested in him as a 4th line PK specialist. Is that worth a 2nd round pick? Probably not. Teams could easily just grab Glendenning or some other 4th liner for a lesser price to fill that sort of role.

That said, it's fair enough if Chicago dig their heels in and prefer to keep the player instead of selling him for less than a 2nd. That's their prerogative if they feel that they're not getting what they want. Though I would argue that they should move him for whatever they can get at the deadline so stock up on some draft picks during their rebuild/retool.

Thats fair

 

[Space umpire]

My opinion isn't only driven by advanced stats. I just think this is a classic case of a player outperforming his career numbers by a good margin in a bigger role than he's really suited for.

First of all, notice his shooting % this season is at 20.7%. That's 3 times his rate last year and double his career average. Considering that he has one of the worst muffin shots in the league I'd be shocked if he keeps that rate of scoring up.

View attachment 399182


Secondly, notice that his TOI is up by 2-3 minutes compared to his time in Dallas. As shown in the charts below Janmark is also playing with 2nd line level linemates in Chicago compared to being a bottom 6 forward in Dallas last season.

View attachment 399184


View attachment 399186

Possession metrics are also highly valued by GM's, and the fact that Janmark basically gets caved in everytime he's on the ice (which is what a sub-40% CF% indicates) isn't very appealing.

When assessing value you have to consider it from the perspective of a buying team. They aren't buying him to be a top 6 forward with the expectation that he's going to continue to shoot 20%. Rather, they'd be interested in him as a 4th line PK specialist. Is that worth a 2nd round pick? Probably not. Teams could easily just grab Glendenning or some other 4th liner for a lesser price to fill that sort of role.

That said, it's fair enough if Chicago dig their heels in and prefer to keep the player instead of selling him for less than a 2nd. That's their prerogative if they feel that they're not getting what they want. Though I would argue that they should move him for whatever they can get at the deadline so stock up on some draft picks during their rebuild/retool.

Nobody said he he wouldn't be moved for less. What was said was you should watch hockey more and study the stats less.
You counter that with PAGES OF STATS. Honestly I laughed.
Then rather than put the shovel down you write about how much value the stats you love have to GM's.
Trust me nothing, NOTHING beats the eye test. Florida has spent the last few years getting things back in place after an analytics GM nearly destroyed an up and coming group. Same crap in Arizona where the guy believed in the sheet above all and was holding the team back.
Solid GM's use all the tools available. None more important than actual scouting and learning players.

 

[Brodeur]

New Jersey - Nikita Gusev, Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri, Dmitry Kulikov, Sami Vatanen, Ryan Murray, Aaron Dell

Gusev - maybe a 2019 Marcus Johansson type return (2nd+4th), although I'm not as bullish with Gusev as other Devils fans.

Zajac - will see if he waives NTC, maybe if team indicates that they won't be re-signing him in offseason. Hypothetically, probably a mid-round pick and the Devils would have to retain.

Palmieri - probably our best trade chip if not re-signed. Rental wingers haven't been fetching late 1st rounders lately. If one isn't on the table, 2nd rounder + B prospect seems plausible (ie Toffoli for 2nd+Madden).

Murray/Kulikov - mid-to-late round pick, personally wouldn't mind giving Murray a short extension.

Vatanen - Probably similar to last year, B prospect or 2nd rounder. Cheap salary might be attractive to teams with cap issues.

Dell - Can't imagine he'd have much value barring injuries.

 

[Richard88]

Nobody said he he wouldn't be moved for less. What was said was you should watch hockey more and study the stats less.
You counter that with PAGES OF STATS. Honestly I laughed.
Then rather than put the shovel down you write about how much value the stats you love have to GM's.
Trust me nothing, NOTHING beats the eye test. Florida has spent the last few years getting things back in place after an analytics GM nearly destroyed an up and coming group. Same crap in Arizona where the guy believed in the sheet above all and was holding the team back.
Solid GM's use all the tools available. None more important than actual scouting and learning players.

As I said before, "my opinion isn't only driven by advanced stats". I watched Janmark very closely in last years playoff series with Dallas where he looked great on the PK, and seen enough of him in Chicago to know that he's not someone a good team would want higher than their bottom 6. That opinion is based completely on my eye-test.

Now, in combination with my opinion (aka "the eye-test") I presented some stats to support my argument. You'd think that going through the effort to present some stats to support an opinion instead of just stating an unfounded opinion would be appreciated, but I guess not.

As for analytics, bringing up Florida and Arizona as examples of analytics-driven organisations is a really flawed argument, as most hockey analytics guys will tell you that a lot of the moves Tallon and Chayka made were decidedly not based on analytics. For a GM who was sold to the public as an analytics guru Chayka didn't half have an affinity for headscratching decisions.

If you want to use a team as an example of how analytics is used then Colorado is a much better example, given that seemingly every acquisition they've made the last couple of years has been heavily influenced by analytics, as evidenced by the success of guys like Burakovsky and Toews in their system. The Donskoi signing was also based on his defensive and transition metrics. They've also persisted with Jost for longer than a lot of teams would have, purely based on his great defensive metrics.

 

[Space umpire]

As I said before, "my opinion isn't only driven by advanced stats". I watched Janmark very closely in last years playoff series with Dallas where he looked great on the PK, and seen enough of him in Chicago to know that he's not someone a good team would want higher than their bottom 6. That opinion is based completely on my eye-test.

Now, in combination with my opinion (aka "the eye-test") I presented some stats to support my argument. You'd think that going through the effort to present some stats to support an opinion instead of just stating an unfounded opinion would be appreciated, but I guess not.

As for analytics, bringing up Florida and Arizona as examples of analytics-driven organisations is a really flawed argument, as most hockey analytics guys will tell you that a lot of the moves Tallon and Chayka made were decidedly not based on analytics. For a GM who was sold to the public as an analytics guru Chayka didn't half have an affinity for headscratching decisions.

If you want to use a team as an example of how analytics is used then Colorado is a much better example, given that seemingly every acquisition they've made the last couple of years has been heavily influenced by analytics, as evidenced by the success of guys like Burakovsky and Toews in their system. The Donskoi signing was also based on his defensive and transition metrics. They've also persisted with Jost for longer than a lot of teams would have, purely based on his great defensive metrics.

LOL, Tallon wanted nothing to do with analytics. He was removed by ownership and replaced by a guy who likes paper. The team took a step backward and eventually Tallon was put in charge again.

 

[Groo]

I'd like to see the Sharks try and add Jamie Oleksiak. What would be the ask?